Here We Go

The first A-Rod trade story has been posted. Interestingly, the author is Keith Olbermann, a guy who hasn’t been a sports reporter in a long time, but certainly has connections in the Yankees organization.

The Yankees immediately denied that they have talked to the Marlins, but I find this rumor somewhat plausible. Miami is the one logical place for A-Rod to go. He is from there and he would draw people to the ballpark. If the Marlins could get him heavily-subsidized by the Yankees I think they would do it.

I also think Alex would do it. For one, he would escape New York can play in a place he loves with a much more relaxed atmosphere. Also, he would save some money as Florida has no state income tax.

But, I don’t believe the Yankees are so desperate to get rid of him that they would be willing to pay almost all of his salary. For one thing, that would be a stupid move as A-Rod is still slightly above average with the bat and a good defender. For another, how would giving A-Rod away benefit the Yankees? They are still on the hook for his salary. And, the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value, so he will represent a hit of $27.5 million per year from 2014-2017, even though he will earn $24 million less than that amount in those years. If they are going to pull the trigger on an A-Rod deal they either need pieces back than can help or some salary relief. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make any sense.

The question the Yankees have to as themselves is if this is situation can only get worse. Is A-Rod inevitably going to decline and therefore become more and more of a liability? My eyes tell me yes and a recent projection run on him seems to confirm that.

Projections (BA/OBP/SLG, HR)
2013: .256/.339/.425, 16
2014: .251/.328/.405, 13
2015: .249/.317/.393, 11
2016: .241/.302/.364, 9
2017: .238/.292/.352, 8

This year the average AL thirdbaseman put up a line of .261/.320/.420, so Alex would be just above it in 2013 and starting to dip below it in 2014. This will be quite an offseason. Hopefully, we can avoid it for a few more days.

To The Brink

Well, give credit to Justin Verlander who was wonderful tonight. Now the Yankees are going to need to win four-straight or the season is over. Yankee fans know that isn’t an impossible feat, but it is certainly not an easy one. The Red Sox did it in 2004. The Flyers did it to the Bruins a few years ago, but those are the only examples I can think of in the last 40 years. (Sidebar- Statistically, if you give a team a 50-50 shot of winning any given game, 3-0 comebacks should happen about 6% of the time. Even if you only give them a 40-60 chance, they should comeback 2.5% of the time. So, it’s not impossible, but it clearly doesn’t look good.)

If you want the one good note, it was obviously Eduardo Nunez. I said this earlier in the season and I was reminded of it again tonight- he is a lot like Soriano. Soriano was a terrible defensive player, but he could put the ball over the fence and he was never scared in a big spot. The Yankees would be smart to pick a position for Nunez to play in 2013 and send him to winter ball to get some experience at it. Thirdbase could work, so could left or right field. Whatever the answer is, Nunez should get 500 AB’s next year.

I’ve buried the lead here because the biggest question is what is going on with A-Rod? I had no problem benching him, but the 9th inning was very interesting. After Teixeira and Cano reached, the Yankees had Ibanez up with a lefty on the mound. Not only did the Yankees fail to consider using A-Rod in that spot, but they had Nick Swisher in the ondeck circle getting ready to hit for Martin. Maybe the Yankees are punishing A-Rod for his flirtations the other night? If not, they have a player they clearly don’t want anymore. The question will be, what can they do to get rid of him?

Hopefully, those questions can wait a little longer. From a Yankee standpoint, you have the right guy on the mound tomorrow. The Yankees just need to figure out how to score some runs for him. Along those line, I keep Gardner and Nunez in the lineup tomorrow. Nunez is a no-brainer after his homer and Gardner had some deep AB’s tonight. Keep them in there.

We Have A Lineup

Joe Girardi is doing the right thing in my mind. He is putting his three fastest players in the lineup and seeing what happens. So, A-Rod, Swisher and Nix go to the bench and we get Chavez, Gardner and Nunez. Here is the whole lineup

Gardner- LF
Ichiro-RF
Teixeira- 1B
Cano-2B
Ibanez-DH
Martin- C
Chavez- 3B
Granderson- CF
Nunez- SS

It may not work, but at least the Yankees are trying to shake things up.
*****
On a separate note. Alex Rodriguez is just not a smart guy when it comes to his actions. He consistently shoots himself in the foot and if this latest story is true it is just another example of his tin ear. What I would like to see is the Yankees address it and not sweep it under the rug. We shall see.

Back after the game.

What Is Happening?- UPDATED

So, let’s talk about something else. Let’s talk about the attendance problems at Yankee Stadium. This is not a new phenomenon. I have had a Saturday ticket plan to the Yankees for a long time and this was the first year that I wasn’t able to resell most of my seats. In fact, apart from the Mets-Yankees game, I lost money on all of the other seats I tried to sell. I assumed this was simply because the “newness” of the stadium had worn off, but now I see that playoff tickets aren’t selling either. If you look at Stub Hub for Game 6, you will find a lot of seats available for a potential Game 6 and a lot of them are well under $100.

My theory is this. It costs $50 to park at Yankee Stadium before you even consider the price of the tickets. With really good HDTV’s costing under $1000 fans just don’t need to go to these games like they did years ago. Sure it is fun to be at the event, but you can have a pretty good time watching it from your couch which saves you a boatload of money and lets you avoid the hassle of getting to and from the game. But I wonder, am I right? Jump into the comments if you have a theory.
*****
I also would like to address Nick Swisher and his feelings. Personally, I never boo my team at a game unless I perceive a lack of hustle on a play. All I can ask of the players is that they try. But, I understand why people boo, and it is their right to express themselves. I think Swisher understands this as well and I get the sense he is trying to lay the groundwork for his free agency. That’s his right as well, but I wish he would focus more on the task at hand than worry about that now.

UPDATE I just received an email about buying World Series tickets. (As a plan holder, I get the opportunity to buy postseason tickets before they are sold to the general public.) In years past I have been allowed to buy two tickets total to the World Series. This year, they are allowing me to buy 12. Obviously, they know they have a problem.

You Can’t Bench Everyone

Let’s start with the gripe everyone will have tomorrow, the umpire definitely blew the call. I don’t understand how he missed it, but he did and it cost the Yankees. BUT, and this is important, don’t forget that it was 1-0 Detroit when that call was missed. The Yankees didn’t score any runs in the game, so you simply cannot blame the umpire for the loss. Obviously, you have to blame the bats.

If you want to parcel out offensive blame, where do you stop? I guess we can exempt Ibanez. Ichiro had a good game yesterday…Texieira has a few hits…um…I think that’s it. And as much attention as A-Rod has gotten for his struggles, how about Cano? He has been truly horrific with the bat.

So, now the Yankees are in a 2-0 hole and have to try and beat Verlander to avoid a 3-0 hole. Personally, I think it is time for a radical makeover. This would be my lineup in Game 3:

Ichiro- LF
Gardner-CF
Teixeira-IB
Ibanez-DH
Cano-2B
Chavez-3B
Swisher-RF
Martin-C
Nunez-SS

If they are going to beat Verlander, they are going to have to manufacture runs. They are going to need to steal bases and take the extra base. So, I say put the three fastest guys they have in the lineup and bunch them together. See what they can do. At this point, what do the Yankees have to lose?

Body Blow

First off, Ron Darling should take some criticism for his reaction to Jeter’s play in the 12th. It was obvious to anyone that he was anything but ok, yet Darling claimed the opposite. I’m sure that some fans in New York will equate the fact that Darling usually calls Mets games with an anti-Jeter bias. I don’t want to think like that so I will assume that Darling, like the rest of us, was simply stunned to see Jeter not get up.

If you haven’t heard the news, Jeter has broken his ankle. He is obviously out for 2012, but Joe Girardi said the actual recovery time should be three months and it will not threaten his career. That means he should be ready to go in 2013. Not that that matters much at this moment.

The Yankees not only have to deal with that loss, but they have to deal with the fact they lost a very winnable game and had to do so in extra innings. I don’t really understand the way Joe Girardi managed this game. I don’t understand the decision to turn to Derek Lowe in the 7th (though it worked) or stick with him into the 8th (It didn’t). I really don’t understand pinch hitting for A-Rod in the 8th. It was 4-0 at that point and there was one out, why put more focus on Alex? And finally, I don’t understand bringing Phelps in for the 12th with Joba in the pen. Phelps has been great, but asking him to pitch to Cabrera and Fielder in extra innings of a playoff game seems like a tall order. Why not let Joba pitch a couple of innings and see if the offense can score there?

But Girardi isn’t swinging the bat and that is what ultimately lost this game. They failed once again to hit in the clutch. Robinson Cano has completely disappeared. Swisher was better with the bat, but that isn’t saying a lot. The Yankees need to execute when they have runners in scoring position and they simply haven’t done that most of 2012.

So, now the Yankees face a tough road. They need to win later today or face the prospect of heading to Detroit down 2-0 with Justin Verlander on the mound. They can’t do anything about Saturday’s game and they won’t have Derek Jeter anymore. Desperate times call for desperate measures and I say that means it is time to turn to Eduardo Nunez. We have seen hints of his offensive abilities while being scared by his defensive liabilities. Jason Nix is really a AAA player so why not put Nunez in and see if he can spark the offense? Yes, he might bobble a ball or two, but I would still let him show us what he can do.

One final note. We saw Joe Girardi physically carry Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter and escort Andy Pettitte off the field this year. I have no idea how the 2012 season will end, but I have a feeling Brian Cashman will note that and redouble his efforts to make this club younger in the future.

Interesting

Mark Feinsand is reporting that the Yankees have added Cody Eppley to the ALCS roster and dropped Nunez. This leads me to a few conclusions.

1- Jeter’s foot is just fine. I know Nix is the primary backup, but they wouldn’t make this move if they were worried about Jeter’s foot.

2- The Yankees are strongly considering TBA as their Game 2 starter. Why do you need 12 arms in the, unless you have five of them in the running to start?

We shall see.

That’s An Ace

CC Sabathia has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for and tonight he may have pitched his best game as a Yankee. A complete game with only four hits and 9 K’s in the do-or-die game of the ALDS is pretty special.

Give a tip of the cap to Buck Showalter and his Orioles. They gave the Yankees everything they could handle and I firmly believe that none of the Yankees’ success would have happened if Buck hadn’t molded them in the early 90′s. I am sure it is of no comfort for him now, but he was the guy who started Jeter, Rivera and many others on the road to success.

Now the Yankees have the advantage of staying home for the start of the ALCS, but they are at a big disadvantage pitching wise. We know Pettitte will go in Game 1 on regular rest. After that, the Yankees have some tough choices to make. Kuroda could go in Game 2, but he would be on short rest, he threw 105 pitches Wednesday. Otherwise, Girardi has to pitch someone other than the four guys who started in the ALDS (Lowe or Phelps? Girardi wouldn’t commit to anything in the postgame other than Pettitte tomorrow and he specifically refused to answer when asked what his options besides Kuroda would be for Game 2) And Game 3 isn’t any easier. They will face Verlander, that’s a definite. They could either pitch Sabathia on short rest, or Hughes or Kuroda on full rest. Something tells me this will come down to the disposition of the series after the first two games because the Game 3 starter is in line to pitch Game 7.

On the plus side, Sabathia’s gem tonight kept the bullpen rested. That is huge because Soriano and Robertson had each thrown three innings over the last two nights. Now, the Yankees can enter the ALCS with a relatively rested bullpen.

Here are some questions, in no particular order, the Yankees have to figure out in the next 23 hours.

1- Is Joba healthy enough to pitch in the ALCS and if not, who is his replacement?

2- What are they going to do with A-Rod? The Tigers have only righty starters. I suspect A-Rod gets into the lineup tomorrow. (Chavez was 0-for-3 with 2 K’s tonight.) In fact, I would bet he gets Games 1 and 2, but if his struggles continue, he will be back on the bench in Game 3 against Verlander.

3- Considering Swisher and Cano continued to struggle, but Granderson looked a lot better so is another lineup shakeup possible?

4- And obviously the Game 2 starter. That decision will probably also impact the bench because if the Yankees decide to use someone other than Kuroda in Game 2, I could see them adding another pitcher.

Whew, what a series. And now no rest before the next one. See you tomorrow!

UPDATE 11:20PM The Tigers have released their ALCS rotation: Fister, Sanchez, Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez, Verlander

FIster has a 5.18 ERA against the Yankees in four career starts, but he pitched better in 2012 against them. The Yankees destroyed Sanzhez the one time they saw him this year and they also shellacked him in his one start against them as a Marlin. Verlander is deadly. Scherzer had pitched well against the Yankees until his one start this year when they hit him pretty well.

UPDATE 12:29AM The Cardinals just pulled off another amazing comeback, down 6-0 at one point and 7-5 in the 9th, they win 9-7. That means two things. 1- The Yankees are the only one of four home teams to win Game 5 at home. 2- The last three World Series winners are still alive in the playoffs. MLB is having a pretty good month, aren’t they?

Fact and Fiction

Heard some interesting points on sports radio this morning. I would like to debunk some of them.

#1- Alex Rodriguez is a terrible postseason player.

Fiction- how quickly we forget. Does 2009 ring a bell? Without Alex’s six homers in the postseason, the Yankees don’t win that World Series. His home run in Game 2 of the ALDS tied the game at 3 in the bottom of the ninth. His home run in Game 3, tied the game at 1 in the 7th. His home run in Game 2 of the ALCS tied the game in the bottom of the 11th and his home run in the World Series brought the Yankees to within 1 run down in Game 3. In fact take his entire postseason body of work and he has hit ,268/.377/.475. Not too shabby at all.

#2- Benching A-Rod today would be as bad or worse than hitting him 8th in 2006.

Fiction- That was a completely different player. In 2006, A-Rod was the reigning MVP and had hit 35 home runs in the regular season. Joe Torre usually made smart decisions, but this was one of his worst and really seemed more about embarrassing A-Rod more than anything else. Today, Alex is a completely different player and benching him wouldn’t have anywhere near the sting the 2006 move did.

#3- The Yankees offense is MIA

Fact- They have been terrible and apart from Jeter, Ibanez, Martin and Teixeira, there isn’t much to look at. However, the Orioles have been worse,

#4- The Yankees should bench Curtis Granderson today.

Fiction- This is a tough call. Granderson has been terrible (1-for-16 with 9 K’s) but with a righty on the mound, he should be in the lineup. The only way I bench him is if it is for Gardner. Ibanez can DH, but I do not want him in left for a game that starts in the sunlight. Too much potential for an error.

#5- The Yankees are thinking of starting Derek Lowe in the ALCS.

Fact (I think)- If you stop and think about it, why didn’t Lowe come into that game instead of Phelps? Lowe is the veteran and pitched very well for the Yankees down the stretch. If the Yankees make the ALCS they have the choice of pitching Kuroda on three-days rest in Game 2, or coming up with another starter. My suspicion is that Girardi was thinking about using Lowe for that game. I hope we find out.

Back after the game. It’s amazing to think that these two teams are 11-11 against each other this year. This is one heck of a tiebreaker.

Not Good

The Yankees had their chance. Second and third, one out in the bottom of the 8th. But, Girardi didn’t go to a pinch hitter for A-Rod and A-Rod struck out and when Swisher flied out, the Yankees had lost their best chance to win the game. Now they face a do-or-die game 5 in the ALDS for the second year in a row.

Obviously, CC Sabathia is making the start which is a huge boost for the Yankees. But this is not what the Yankees wanted. By using Sabathia Friday, they will either have to pitch him on three-days rest in the ALCS in Game 3, or on regular rest in Game 4. Furthermore, they will either need to use Kuroda on three-days rest in Game 2, or pitch someone who hasn’t started for them in the postseason. Of course none of this matter if they don’t win. Finally, the ALCS starts Saturday, so the Yankees won’t have a day off after playing in Game 5, while the Tigers will. (And say a thank you to Oakland for forcing a Game 5 which forced the Tigers to use Verlander tonight. He is absolutely mowing down Oakland, but won’t be able to pitch until Game 3 of the ALCS.)

Now the big question is who starts at third tomorrow? A-Rod is absolutely lost at the plate right now and he only hit .256/.326/.391 against righties all year. Chavez hit .298/.365/.543 against them. It’s not the time to worry about A-Rod’s feelings, if I am Girardi I bench him.

Baseball has to be happy that it got the maximum number of games in all four of the division series. It’s great for baseball, just bad for the Yankees.