Evaluating The Offseason

13 Feb 2013

4 Comments

With pitchers and catchers reporting , we can look back and evaluate the moves the Yankees have made to prepare for the 2013 season. For me, the frustration of this offseason is that the Yankees seemed to try and thread the needle between two different goals. The first goal is the desire to get to a payroll of $189 million in 2014. The second goal is to win the World Series. Now, I don’t believe those two goals are mutually exclusive, but there is not a lot of overlap between the two of them because of the way the Yankees are currently constructed.

The Yankees made some curious choices in their approach to achieving both goals. They let Russell Martin leave for Pittsburgh because they didn’t want to give him a two-year deal and then turned around and gave a two-year deal to a 39-year old outfielder. They let Eric Chavez sign with Arizona for a paltry $3 million and then gave Kevin Youkilis $12 million to play third. Without breaking down each deal, I think it is fair to say the Yankees aren’t better than they were at the end of 2012, but I am not sure that they are as bad as a lot of people think. (A healthy Brett Gardner is a very under-appreciated asset.)

The problem is, they will be very hard to project. If they stay healthy (a big if) and find reasonable solutions to their catching and right-handed outfield needs, I could see them winning 90 games. But, if the older guys show their age and they don’t figure out how to plug those holes, I could see things going the other way and a sub.500 finish being the result.

So what are the big questions heading into camp? Here are my top-3.

1- Who is the starting catcher? From everything I read, Yankee decision makers think Romine is ready for the bigs from a glove standpoint. If that is true, I would make him the starter because the other options have very little upside offensively and Romine just might hit. One thing to keep in mind, Francisco Cervelli still has an option, so he can be sent to the minors.

2- Who is the 5th starter? Barring injury, we know that the Yankees’ rotation will be Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte and Hughes, but the fifth starter is probably a two-man race between Nova and Phelps. Based on 2012, Phelps should win this in a laugher, but I think the Yankees will give Nova every chance to win the job.

3- What is the bench? This is a really easy one to predict by role, but very hard to predict by name. We know there will be a backup catcher, right-handed outfielder, backup infielder and one other player on the bench. My early guesses would be Stewart, Diaz, Nix and Nunez, but I think this is a wide-open competition. Stewart makes sense, assuming he is not the starting catcher, as he did it in 2012. Diaz is my early pick over Juan Rivera, but I am hoping the Yankees find some other players for this competition. I think Nix’s versatility earns him a role as the Yankees will need someone who can fill multiple positions. Nunez is an utter guess because I just don’t understand what the Yankees are doing with him. Is he really only a shortstop? Even if he is, there would be value is carrying him on the roster as a SS/DH/PH. He could play a fair amount of short against LHP, moving Jeter to DH. He could also provide a runner off the bench.

These next seven weeks will answer a lot of questions.

 

By: Category: Uncategorized, Yankees Tags: , , , , , ,

The Sad Truth

10 Feb 2013

12 Comments

The names continue to drip out of the Miami clinic and there are rumors that the newspaper that broke the story is going to cooperate with MLB , so expect more names to appear soon. But, none of this will solve the basic problem which the originally story outlined, the drugs are just too cheap.

Lost in the hype over the names in the original story was this little nugget:

On a 2009 client list, near A-Rod’s name, is that of Yuri Sucart, who paid Bosch $500 for a weeklong supply of HGH.

$500 a week means a yearlong supply of HGH is $26,000. MLB players who are in the majors make a minimum of $490,000 this year. And remember, up until now there has been no way to test for HGH. When you consider the millions handed out to players with even average stats, I think you would have to agree that the temptation to cheat and start using HGH must be very, very high for a lot of players.

And that’s the sad reality of all of this. There will always be new drugs developed that athletes will find out about. With millions of dollars on the line, the temptations to cheat will always be there. MLB can trumpet its drug policies all it wants, but its hard to see how we will ever have a truly clean game in the 21st Century.

By: Category: Uncategorized Tags: , ,

A Lackey Make-Over

6 Feb 2013

4 Comments

Interesting article today on BostonGlobe.com regarding John Lackey.  Globe writer Peter Abraham does a good job giving us the back story on Lackey, and gives us a glimpse into how Lackey is trying to change, both on the field and off.

If this team is to get a postseason birth, it will require someone to step-up and do far more than we expect.  Lackey is as good a candidate as any.  Still though, I’ll believe it when I see it.

By: Category: Red Sox

Truck Day at Fenway

5 Feb 2013

5 Comments

Well, today is truck day for the Red Sox.  The day a big semi heads south with equipment, baseballs, juggs machines, advil, beer, fried chicken and various other baseball necessities for the 2013 Red Sox.

For Red Sox fans, we have a rough idea of which players will break camp with the team.  Here’s my guess:

  1. c – Jarrod Saltalamacchia (baring a trade)
  2. 1b – Mike Napoli
  3. 2b – Dustin Pedrioa
  4. 3b – Will Middlebrooks
  5. ss – Stephen Drew
  6. lf – Jonny Gomes
  7. cf – Jacoby Ellsbury
  8. rf – Shane Victorino
  9. dh – David Ortiz
  10. c – David Ross
  11. ut – Pedro Ciriaco
  12. ut – Brock Holt
  13. sp – Jon Lester
  14. sp – Clay Buchholz
  15. sp – Ryan Dempster
  16. sp – Felix Dubront
  17. sp – John Lackey
  18. rp – Franklin Morales
  19. rp – Koji Uehara
  20. rp – Andrew Miller
  21. rp – Andrew Bailey
  22. rp – Joel Hanrahan
  23. rp – Craig Breslow
  24. rp – Alfredo Aceves
  25. rp – Daniel Bard

That leaves Ryan Lavarnway, Junichi Tazawa, Clayton Mortensen, Daniel Nava and Jose Iglesias in the minors.  Of course there is a strong sense the Red Sox will move a catcher, most likely Saltalamacchia which would mean Lavarnway makes the club.

Things I like:  I like the Red Sox bullpen.  It is strong and well-balanced.  Andrew Bailey might get moved as, from this perspective, he doesn’t appear to take conditioning too seriously and still has value.

I’m ok with the rotation, but that really is assuming new manager John Farrell get light a fire under the likes of Lester, Lackey and Buchholz.

The line-up is a huge mystery to me.  There are guys who are tough at bats like Pedrioa and Ortiz, but there are also guys who give at bats away in Gomes, Saltalamacchia and Victorino (poor OBPs).  With luck, this team could produce some runs, but there really is no superstar element save for Ortiz, and he’s 37, and Pedroia who is a nice hitter, but can’t be counted on as a major run producer.

After the last 7 months of disastrous Red Sox baseball, it is difficult to get too excited  about this team.  Yes, they could make the playoffs, but I again will state that this team has 82-88 wins written all over it.

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By: Category: Red Sox Tags: , , ,

Pronk?

31 Jan 2013

7 Comments

The Yankees have reportedly signed Travis Hafner, aka Pronk, to a major league deal. That means he will be on the 40-man and presumably make the roster as a lefty hitting DH. I get their thought process. Hafner hit .241/.361/.437 against RHP last year and in Yankee Stadium he could do some damage. However, I still don’t get the signing.

Let’s start with the obvious, this is an extremely fragile player. Since 2007, he has appeared in over 100 games once, in 2010. He will be 36, so he isn’t getting younger or better. And, he hasn’t played in the field since 2007. I wasn’t a fan of the Ibanez signing last year, but at least he could put a glove on. Hafner seems destined to be a DH and only a DH.

But the thing that really bothers me about this move is that the Yankees don’t seem to think there is anyone else in their system who can play this role. We keep hearing about getting under $189-million, well the best way to do that is with young and cheap players. For instance, Corban Joseph is a lefty-hitting second baseman who put up a line of .266/.366/.474 in 84 games at AAA last year, he is also only 23. Why not see what he can do with the bat in the big leagues? If they didn’t like that idea, Chris Dickerson was on the 40-man roster and could have provided defense and speed off the bench to go with his lefty bat. The Yankees just signed Dan Johnson to a minor league deal, he may not hit like Hafner, but he played both first and third in the minors last year so he would provide more flexibility.

But the Yankees did what they always do they turned to the veteran. It may work out well, but it doesn’t make them younger or cheaper and that is a missed opportunity in my mind.

 

By: Category: Yankees

More Fun With Alex

29 Jan 2013

7 Comments

Just when you thought Alex Rodriguez couldn’t get more interesting, here’s a new PED story linking him and other athletes to an outfit in Miami. It was back in early 2009, ironically during his last hip surgery recovery, that A-Rod admitted to using steroids during a three-year period. The Yankees stood by Alex and supported him at his press conference where he supposedly came clean.

But, that was a different A-Rod.  That guy had won a MVP in 2007 and he hit .302/.392/.573 in 2008. The Yankees needed that player to be productive and their faith was rewarded with a championship in 2009 that would not have been won without Alex. Now, things are very, very different.

Let’s start with the obvious, this isn’t the same player. Rodriguez just had surgery on his other hip. He has not hit .300 since 2008 and his OPS has declined every year since 2007. He has hit 34 homers over the last two seasons and has appeared in only 221 games during that period. Couple that with his contract which has 5 years and $114-million left on it before incentives (we will get to those) and I think it is fair to say that the Yankees won’t be as supportive this time around if these allegations prove to be true.

And this is the where the biggest change from 2009 comes in, the quest to get a payroll below $189-million in 2014. I’ve detailed how hard it will be to accomplish, but if the Yankees somehow could subtract the $27.5 AAV of Alex’s contract, it becomes a lot easier to achieve. Now, I don’t see any way that is possible, but I do think the Yankees will have an argument to make against Alex’s contract incentives.

Alex gets $6-million each time he hits a milestone home run which are defined as home run #660, 714, 755, 762 and 763.  And those bonuses will count against the Yankees’ payroll when they are earned. So, with Alex out until July,  currently hitting a home run about once every 6.5 games and sitting at 647 career homers, there is a very real chance that he won’t hit #660 until 2014. And that would cost the Yankees an extra $6-million in payroll which could completely obliterate their quest to get under $189 million.

So, I expect the Yankees to attack those incentive clauses. A-Rod has already admitted to using PED’s from 2001-2003 when he hit 156 homers. The Yankees could use that and these latest allegations to try and invalidate his 660th homer, arguing that his real total would be less without the use of PED’s. I imagine the Yankees are thinking over their options very carefully right now.  And, at the very least, I imagine Hal has given Hank a huge wedgie, at least I hope he has.

 

By: Category: Yankees Tags: , , , ,

We’re Back!

26 Jan 2013

4 Comments

Welcome to the new YankeesRedsox.com. We are really excited about the improvements we have made to the site. We hope you will enjoy them too.

For those of you interested, let me take you through the changes we have made-

We have changed from a Moveable Type to a WordPress blog. We did this for two reasons.

1- Moveable Type is not supported to the extent it was when we started using it in 2005. This has caused us all sorts of headaches from tremendous volumes of spam to wade through to a very bland site layout. WordPress fixes those two concerns.

2- Commenting will be much, much easier for you (no more Type Key) and you can now reply directly to a comment left on your comment. In addition, Andy and I, as authors of posts, will be notified when you leave a comment.

We would like to give a shout out to Cord Blomquist and his team at ReadyMadeWeb that held our hand throughout this process. Thanks to them we have a much more stable platform to operate on.

2013 marks the 10th anniversary of YankeesRedsox.com. Andy and I have loved the first ten years and we are looking forward to the next 10. Thanks to all of you for your support, we wouldn’t keep doing this without you.

By: Category: Uncategorized

Moving On Up

22 Dec 2012

3 Comments

In the interest of making this website look a bit more, you know, real, Peter and I have decided to fork over some dough and will be making an upgrade to the site. Nothing fancy I assure you, but a better format to be sure.

With this, the site might go down for 1-2 days. Please bear with us and be sure to check back soon. We appreciate all who read and comment and hope this will make everything easier to use.

In the meantime, Happy Holidays to you all.

By: Category: General

Irony

19 Dec 2012

4 Comments

There is no team in sports more connected with the concept of the free market than the Yankees. When free agency launched in baseball, the Yankees jumped in with both feet. Through the years they have vigorously fought attempts to reign in their spending. Yet now they are going to try and stop fans from being able to benefit from that very market.

The Yankees don’t like Stub Hub and they don’t like MLB’s deal with Stub Hub. For the past few years, if you had a ticket account with a MLB team you could list your tickets on Stub Hub directly and buyers of those tickets could download them directly. It’s worked pretty well for buyers and sellers. If you have a season ticket package and can’t attend some games, there is an easy way to sell them. If you want to go to a game, you have choices besides the box office.

And that’s the problem. Fans have realized that instead of submitting to the Yankees’ pricing choices and fees, they can go to Stub Hub and see if they can get a better deal. The problem for the Yankees is that they have already sold these tickets and therefore don’t earn any money from these sales while their remaining inventory goes unsold.

So, the Yankees are going to opt out of the new Stub Hub deal and try and come up with a new one with Ticketmaster. I can pretty much guarantee that part of that deal will be some sort of cut for the Yankees on every ticket resold in their system. But, the problem for the Yankees will be that they can’t stop fans from still listing their tickets on Stub Hub anyway. For a team that has embraced and benefited from the free market, this is a silly way to operate.

And here’s the part that makes me really mad. The Yankees make oodles of money already. If they want more “butts in the seats” why don’t they lower prices? When the payroll shrinks in 2014 and the club saves $50 million where will that money go? Into the pockets of ownership of course. That’s fine, it’s their right to make as much money as they can, but do they have to try and squeeze their customers at every corner in order to do so?

By: Category: Yankees

The Blue Jays

18 Dec 2012

0 Comment

While Peter and I obsess about all things Red Sox and Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays have aggressively thrown their hat in the ring. It’s a giant hat…think a Three Amigos sombrero.

Adds:

R.A. Dickey – Reigning N.L. Cy Young Winner.
Josh Johnson – Career 3.15 ERA.
Mark Buerhle – 3.74 ERA in 2012 and career 3.82 ERA.
Jose Reyes – 29 years old with speed and some pop.
Melky Cabrera – While we all finally confirmed what we suspected, if his ability to hide future drug use is good, then you have a good to great player.

These acquisitions added to their existing core of Jose Baustista (27 HR in 92 games in 2012 and 43 HR and 54 HR respectively in 2011 and 2010), Edwin Encarnacion (42 HR in 2012), Brett Lawrie (disappointing sophomore season, but still young), Adam Lind (2nd half far better than 1st half), Brandon Morrow (tore it up as a starter) and Casey Janssen had a fine first season as a closer, make the Jays a frontrunner in 2012.

The Jays have gone all in and the rest of the A.L. East has certainly taken notice, or as a Red Sox fan, I hope they have.

By: Category: General
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