30 Mar 2014
We took a look at the hitting the other day. Now let’s examine the pitching starting with the rotation. I am going to list the pitchers in the order they will pitch in 2014 and to make the comparisons easier list Nova as the #3 starter in 2013.
2013- CC Sabathia 14-13 4.78 ERA 2.7 WAR
2014- CC Sabathia 13-11 4.03 ERA 3.6 WAR
Difference +0.9 WAR
I think it is reasonable to assume Sabathia rebounds from last year, but also doesn’t resume his role as an ace.
2013- Hiroki Kuroda 11-13 3.31 ERA 3.8 WAR
2014- Hiroki Kuroda 13-9 3.74 ERA 2.8 WAR
Difference -1.0 WAR/-0.1 cumulative
I also think it is reasonable for Kuroda to fall back from last year.
2013- Ivan Nova 9-6 3.10 ERA 2.5 WAR
2014- Ivan Nova 11-9 3.96 ERA 2.1 WAR
Difference -0.4/-0.5 cumulative
Which Nova will we see in 2014? The guy who looked great in 2013 or the guy we saw in 2012?
2013- Andy Pettitte 11-11 3.74 ERA 3.2 WAR
2014- Masahiro Tanaka 12-8 3.61 ERA 5.1 WAR
Difference +1.9/+1.4 cumulative
If this can truly come to pass the Yankees will be in very good shape.
2013- Phil Hughes 4-14 5.19 ERA 1.3 WAR
2014- I know it is Pineda, but ZIPS only projects him for 81 innings, so I am using Phelps and Pineda which gives us a WAR of 1.5 combined
Difference +0.2/+1.6 cumulative
Tough for me to see how Hughes was 1.3 WAR last year, but so be it.
The problem with using WAR and the bullpen is that relievers don’t generally pitch enough to generate much on the WAR scale. However, the 2013 Yankees had two guys with WAR’s of 1.5 or better (Rivera and Robertson) Obviously, we know Rivera won’t be pitching this year and Robertson is predicted to lose 0.4 WAR from 2013. So, I am going to say the bullpen will be worse. And I will simply subtract the 1.6 WAR improvement in the rotation from the bullpen and say that the pitching will break-even compared to 2013. Not overly elegant, but I think it is on the right track.
Combining the pitching and hitting projections says the Yankees should roughly improve by 7 wins over last year. The problem again is that their 85-77 record from 2013 probably doesn’t accurately reflect their true performance. I am going to use their 2013 pythagorean number and say that the 2013 Yankees should have been 79-83, so seven more wins brings them to 86-76 in 2014. Is that enough to grab a wild card? I will examine that tomorrow when I make my annual predictions.