Yankees

Worth a Read

SI.com has posted their article about Brian Cashman online. It got a lot of press last week because it includes an anecdote from 2010 when Cashman told Jeter that he would rather have Tulowitzki at short than Jeter. That’s an interesting story, and the article is loaded with them.

One interesting note is Billy Beane’s contention that Brian Cashman should be a future Hall of Famer. He says, “If anybody else had done what Brian’s been doing, you know what’d be in front of his name? Future Hall of Famer

That’s a complicated argument. Clearly, the Yankees have financial resources that other team, at least until recently, couldn’t match. But, it is worth remembering that the Yankees haven’t finished under .500 since 1992. That’s impressive.

I think managing and general managing the Yankees is a double-edged sword. On one hand, you have almost unlimited  resources and your brand is the biggest in the game. On the other, you have insane expectations, and you will never get enough credit for what you do because of all of those resources. I don’t know if that’s a job many people would really want, and it amazes me that Brian Cashman has been doing it for 17 years.

Saved By A Knee?

You never want to see a player get hurt. And you really don’t want to see someone who has been a great pitcher for your team get hurt. But, CC Sabathia’s injury yesterday may turn out to be a positive for the Yankees. For one thing, Sabathia simply isn’t a very good pitcher anymore. Yankee management doesn’t want to admit that, but the numbers tell the story. Much was made about a recent surge in his performance, but four starts in August with a 3.80 ERA tell us very little about what the future holds.  But beyond his general ineffectiveness, the Yankees were about to adopt a six-man rotation because of Michael Pineda’s return and this injury should prevent that. (More on the “should” in a minute)

The Yankees have a mediocre rotation. There are flashes of brilliance from all of them, but the overall numbers show a team that gets about average results. Using ERA as a benchmark, the four starters other than Sabathia have ERA’s within 10% of the league average, plus or minus. Tankaka and Nova are ahead of the league, while Pineda and Eovaldi are below it. (I’m keeping Severino out of this conversation for the minute because he has only four starts.) Dig a little deeper and FIP flips those names around. Pineda has a 3.00 FIP, Eovaldi a 3.53, Tanaka a 4.11, and Nova a 4.12. But the Yankees have a really good bullpen. Of their five major relievers (Miller, Betances, Warren, Wilson, and Shreve) only Shreve has a FIP significantly higher than his current ERA. And they have employed a number of other arms effectively throughout the season. A “smart” team would emphasize the relievers and deemphasize the starters. The Yankees have mostly done that by pulling their starters early in games, or at the first sign of trouble.

And that’s the problem with a six-man rotation. Adding another starter to this mix gives the rotation more rest, but do they really need it? The Yankees are already leaning on their bullpen and minimizing starter innings. With an extra day off between starts, Joe Girardi might be tempted to push his starters deeper into games. That would be a mistake. Rosters are expanding in a week and the Yankees will be able to formalize their multiple-arms approach in the bullpen thanks to that. Keep pitching the starters for six innings and then bring in the bullpen to figure things out. It’s a good formula for this team.

As for the “should” part….It sounds like the Yankees might use Bryan Mitchell as a sixth starter if he is recovered from getting hit in the face last week. <sigh>

 

Bird is the Word

The Yankees are calling up Greg Bird. Now the question is, where does he play?

This is a really interesting move. On one hand, Bird has hit incredibly well and is a highly-touted prospect, so why not get him up here and see what he can do? Furthermore, the Yankees DFA’ed Garett Jones for the second time yesterday, so they didn’t have a true backup first baseman on the roster.

But again, where does he play? He is a first baseman only, so unless you are going to sit Teixeira or A-Rod and let Bird DH, he is on the bench and that doesn’t make sense development-wise.

So, let proceed from the idea that he is going to play, at least temporarily. A-Rod has played every game except one since the All-Star Break, so I could see Bird at DH tonight. The Yankees won’t want Teixeira to play three games on the turf in Toronto, so I could see Bird at first tomorrow or Saturday. After that, I would bet that they send him down again and call up someone like Pirela to cover multiple positions.

That would make sense and since Bird had to be added to the 40-man roster after the season anyway, this is a worthwhile move. The hard part will be if he hits well the next two or three days and then gets sent down. Talk radio will love that, but what else can you expect if Teixeira and A-Rod are healthy?

Amazing

If this were the late September, we would be talking about the last ten days in historical terms. To lose 6-1/2 games in the standings in ten days is absolutely stunning, but that is exactly what has happened to the Yankees. They woke up on Monday, August 3rd with a six-game lead. Thanks to going 2-6 while Toronto went 9-0, they wake up this morning 1/2-a game behind Toronto.

And the fact that it isn’t late September should be consoling to Yankees’ fans. That and the fact that they actually still lead Toronto in the loss column. Toronto will cool off from this pace. The Yankees will hit again. The problem is with three games coming up in Toronto starting Friday, the Yankees will need both of those things to happen quickly. A three-or-four game lead at this stage really is significant, no matter what the last ten days have shown us.

It’s Just Probability

There has been a lot of press about the fact that last night was the first ever time in baseball history that all 15 home teams won. It was written about a bunch this morning and even made the national news casts. It’s a neat thing, but the fact that it has never happened before isn’t a surprise.

Start with the fact that baseball has had 30 teams since the 1998 season, meaning this is the 18th season that you could have 15 home teams win on the same night. Now estimate the expected winning percentage for a team at home. Let’s say 60% is probably the highest average you could justify. You would therefore expect all 15 home teams to win 60% raised to the 15th power. That’s would put the odds at roughly 1 in 2,500. If you assume that all 30 teams played on the same night 162 times a season, you would have had 2,916 times that all 15 home teams could have won on the same night since the expansion in 1998.

But it is worth remembering that if you have odds of 1-in-2500, trying something 2500 times doesn’t guarantee you will experience it. Vegas makes a lot of money off of people watching roulette wheels and expecting that eight-consecutive reds will result in the ninth spin being black, but it doesn’t work that way. Each spin has the same odds as the last. (And Vegas diabolically has two green numbers so your odds of black and red are not even 50-50 but about 47.5%-47.5% with a 5% chance that green comes up and ruins you.)

All of this is another way of saying I am bored and too depressed to talk about the Yankees right now. Hopefully, that changes tonight.

Swept Away

Last Sunday the Yankees had a six-game cushion in the AL East. Today that cushion is down to 1-1/2 games. Toronto came in and swept the Yankees, winning their sixth, seventh and eighth-straight games in the process.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about this series was what wasn’t the cause of the Yankee losses- starting pitching. Well, maybe you can say Nova didn’t pitch well on Saturday, but it was the complete disappearance of the offense that killed them this weekend.  Since the Yankees scored 13 runs on Tuesday, they have scored a grand total of 4 in 5 games. That is terrible.

The good news for the Yankees is they get a day off to recoup and they get a chance for revenge next weekend in Toronto. The bad news is that things have gotten a lot tighter in the division.

Glass Houses and Stones

I was going to devote this morning to my excitement about heading to the Bronx tonight. I will be there at Luis Severino’s debut, and I can’t wait. But, some other news got in the way, and I feel compelled to say something about it. I will write about Severino tomorrow, but for now, bring on the PED’s!

David Ortiz said something last night that nobody can disagree with. When asked about Alex Rodriguez and his PED use, Ortiz said, “It is what it is. The guy is playing the game the right way now — as far as we know.”

At this point, you would have to be either an idiot, or completely naive to assume that A-Rod is doing what he is doing clean. He does not deserve the benefit of the doubt.But, that doesn’t make what Ortiz said very smart, in fact it is pretty dumb for him to go anywhere near that question because he is not an innocent bystander to the PED era.

It’s hard to remember now, but it was the news in Fenruary 2009 that A-Rod, along with 103 other players, failed the 2003 PED test that started all of the “fun” with Alex. When the news came out, Alex held a big press conference and admitted he did it, but claimed that it was for only the three years in Texas because of the pressure of living up to the contract. In July of that year, the news came out that one of the other 103 players was Ortiz. Ortiz issued a statement saying that he was surprised at finding out he tested positive and he would find out what he tested positive for and let the fans know. To my knowledge, that has never happened.

What you think from here probably depends on who you root for. Ortiz is beloved in Boston, and A-Rod has seen a redemption of sorts from the fans in New York. You just need to look at the reaction to Tom Brady inside of New England and outside of it to see how fans “root for the laundry”. Personally, I think A-Rod is a despicable person and a liar, but that doesn’t make Ortiz innocent. Ortiz’s claims that he has never failed a PED test since 2003 don’t sway me to his side either. Other than that 2003 test, I can’t think of a test that A-Rod failed. He was, from a testing standpoint, squeaky clean and his latest crimes only came to light because of Tony Bosch and a FBI investigation. Furthermore, the evidence uncovered during that investigation told us about things like steroid lozenges that you could use up to a certain point on game days and still pass a drug test after the game. Clearly. the cheaters have the advantage over the testing.

I hope A-Rod, Ortiz, and all the rest of the players aren’t cheating now, but I have no idea.  And if MLB ever wanted to really say they have cleaned up the game, the way to do it would be to store all samples taken for future testing- 5 or 10 years down the line. That way the science could potentially catch up with the cheating, and the players who were inclined to cheat might be dissuaded because there was the potential of their legacies being tarnished in the future.

That Was Quick

So I was thinking about the Ackley move over the weekend and I finally think I understood it. The Yankees were basically saying that while they know Ackley isn’t a great hitter, he is at least the hitter Garret Jones was. That, plus the ability to play defensively at multiple positions, made him an upgrade to the roster. It made sense, after all the Yankees had shown that they wouldn’t pinch-hit for Chris Young late in games when he faced a righty pitcher because they didn’t want to put Jones or Beltran in right. (And this was despite Young putting up a .558 OPS against RHP.)

Now Ackley is headed to the DL and the Yankees are back to where they were before minus their backup for Mark Teixeira. I would suspect this means we will see Heathcott get the callup tomorrow since Young is clearly playing tonight against the LHP (1.122 OPS against them). And I also suspect that if they needed to replace Teixeira due to a DL situation, we would see Greg Bird make his debut. But I am getting ahead of myself. Game 1 with the Red Sox is tonight, back tomorrow with some thoughts on the big debut.

2015 Trade Deadline Blog

Check back here throughout the day for updates on your favorite Yankees and Red Sox player trades.

4:08pm- Looks like that may be it. I will recap any additional moves later.

4:02pm- Cubs get Tommy Hunter according to Ken Rosenthal.

4:01pm- Jack Curry reports the Yankees did nothing.

4:00pm- We have reached the deadline, but trade reports can still come in.

3:58pm- Bob Nightengale is reporting that both the Red Sox and Yankees are standing pat.

3:56pm- Sherman tweets that unless something changes in next five minutes, the Yankees are not making a move.

3:55pm- Five minutes…..

3:52pm- Ken Rosenthal confirms the Cespedes move.

3:51pm- Jason Stark reporting Mets have traded for Cespedes.

3:49pm- Astros are apparently out on Kimbrel.

3:48pm- Looking back at last year’s trade deadline blog, the last trade report came at 4:11pm.

3:45pm- Bruce and Chapman are with the Reds, though Bruce is reportedly getting a day off.

3:44pm- Blue Jays tweet they have traded Felix Doubront to the A’s for cash.

3:40pm- 20 minutes to go….

3:38pm- Sherman reminds everyone that Cespedes cannot be offered arbitration, so if the Tigers want something for him in case he signs elsewhere they need to trade him today.

3:31pm- Rosenthal, Heyman, and Sherman are all reporting the Yankees offered Mateo to the Padres in a Kimbrel trade, but haven’t heard back.

2:52pm- John Farrell has apparently told WEEI in Boston he doesn’t anticipate any big moves from Boston.

2:47pm- In an addition by subtraction move, the Yankees have announced that they received cash from a Korean League team for Emil Rogers.

2:36pm- Blue Jays are adding Ben Revere according to multiple reports. This is on top of a trade for Mark Lowe earlier today.

2:20pm- Jon Heyman reports the Mets are making a push for Cespedes.

2:17pm- In addition, Chris Capuano has cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA.

2:15pm- The Yankees announce they have DFA’ed Garett Jones in order to put Ackley on the roster.

1:55pm- Good point by Rosenthal on MLB Network- teams need to review medical records before 4pm today, they can’t review them afterwards, so teams are probably reviewing multiple medicals right now.

1:54pm- Jon Heyman on MLB Network reports that Yankees are not in on Chapman.

1:52pm- Joel Sherman reporting the Padres are working on something big for Kimbrel, but not with the Yankees. Padres won’t trade him to Yankees without Mateo in the deal. <Peter says- Mateo would be a deal-breaker for me in that discussion. No reason to take on all of that money and give up a big contract.>

12:08pm- Arizona is apparently out on Aroldis Chapman

12:05pm- Jerry Crasnick tweets that Broxton is headed to St. Louis.

11:38 am – The Yankees are in on several bullpen arms including Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

11:31 am – ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal are reporting the Red Sox and Padres are having discussions about Tyson Ross and perhaps Craig Kimbrel.

11:31 am – ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting the Red Sox are kicking the tires on Cleveland’s Carlos “Don’t Call me Hector” Carrasco.

 

Look Over There!

Here is my Yankee trade deadline day prediction, bet on a surprise. Brian Cashman has shown us time and again that we should ignore the rumors and just sit back and wait for events to unfold. Year after year, the names associated with the Yankees end up elsewhere and someone you did not expect at all ends up on the team.

So take a deep breath when you hear Craig Kimbrel is headed to the Bronx and wait. History says that isn’t happening.

I will start a live blog this afternoon around 2pm with rumors, trades and other tidbits. I hope to “see” you there.