Red Sox

Lester

The departure of Jon Lester was set into motion 8 months ago when the Red Sox offered him 4 years and $70m.  Considering Chicago signed him for 6 years and $155m (plus a vesting option), then you can understand why Lester felt the Red Sox hadn’t built much good will with such an initial low-ball offer.  Any notion of a home town discount ended when they put forth that bid.

First off, a question I’d love answered is, are the Red Sox happy they didn’t land Lester?  Did they just continue to stay close enough in negotiations so they could turn around and tell Red Sox fans they tried?  Are they happier with the idea that they will have to not only trade prospects to get a top-flight starter, but that they will also have to pay that top-flight starter as well?  Lester just cost money, a guy like Cole Hamels will cost much talent and money.

For them to think 6/$135m would get it done is laughable which makes me think indeed, they really didn’t want to resign him.  If the Red Sox had matched the Cubs offer, I am guessing he’d have taken it.  So for $20m, they will have to ship a Betts, a Swihart, a Bogaerts or another top prospect and they’d best hope the prospect they are sending doesn’t turn out to be an impact majorleaguer as that in turn will cost them far more than $20m.

Also, are we going to get a smear campaign, a very distasteful thing we’ve seen when people leave the Red Sox.  Terry Francona’s departure is a first and foremost example and while I cannot pinpoint it on any one person, the fact is, there are Red Sox sources who leak the worst kind of information, personal information.  As a Red Sox fan, I am thrilled they have won 3 World Series in the past 10 years but they way they conduct business leaves much to be desired.  For instance, using their high horse to disparage the way the Yankees do business, specifically spending large sums of money on free agents, then to turn around 12 months later and do the same thing themselves.  The previously mentioned smear campaigns are upsetting.  If I am to believe former GM Theo Epstein, he said of signing Carl Crawford, that he felt a pressure from above to “feed the monster” that was the Red Sox marketing juggernaut.  Feeding the monster means signing players not for what they bring to the success of the baseball team, but rather what PR boost, what ratings boost, what revenue boost a signing might deliver.

I’d like to think that winning ballgames and doing so in a classy manner aren’t mutually exclusive.

Of course the main concern I have is who the hell is going to start for the Red Sox next year?  I sure hope Ben Cherington has been staying at a Holiday Inn Express of late because he is going to have to work miracles over the next 2 months.  Seriously, the rotation is a total and complete mess and as it stands today they won’t have any chance of making the postseason.

Night Two

Will tonight be the night that Jon Lester makes his decision? It is reportedly a two-team race between Boston and Chicago as Lester has informed the Giants he won’t be joining them. (Props to Lester for phoning them himself). Most of the free agent market is waiting for Lester, so it would be great if he would decide.

Let’s focus on a few other notes.

Interesting admission by Brian Cashman that the Yankees didn’t make an offer to David Robertson and had no intention of ever signing him and Miller, but pretended they might because they didn’t want to hurt his value because they liked him. I can’t imagine the other teams in the league are thrilled that the Yankees tried to help Robertson get a bigger contract.

You have to wonder if the Giants turn to Chase Headley now that they know they won’t be spending money on Lester.  I have to think that the reports that Headley had a four-year/$65-million offer were wrong. Why wouldn’t he have accepted that by now?

Once Lester signs, who is next? Francisco Liriano went back to Pittsburgh today for three-years/$39-million so he is out, but there are a ton of arms out there. I am surprised that James Shields seems to have escaped notice by most people.

A pet peeve of mine is how many baseball people don’t understand the point of Moneyball. It wasn’t that Oakland valued OBP above all else. It was that Oakland realized that OBP wasn’t being valued and therefore they could exploit it. Oakland’s whole mind set is to exploit the areas in baseball that are being undervalued while selling the areas they think are overvalued. That’s why they built a defensive juggernaut a few years back and why they traded a bunch of prospects this year.

Interesting situation building in Cincinnati. Apparently they want to contend in 2015, but they also feel the need to cut payroll. That’s a tough needle to thread.

Max Scherzer reportedly wants a deal bigger than $200-million. Good luck to him with that.

More tonight if news happens in the next hour or so.

Lester News-UPDATED 7:25PM

Ken Rosenthal just tweeted “Barring late change, Lester choosing between Cubs and SF Giants”

I think we all know that “late change” means more money from Boston. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE 4:55- As BL points out in the comments, Lester’s agent denies this report. Jon Heyman reports that Giants and Cubs are “favorites” but Red Sox have not been informed they are out. Buster Olney speculates that Lester’s agents like to present teams with a “take down price” and that Boston has been presented with that. Rosenthal hasn’t tweeted anything beyond his initial report.

The Giants part intrigues me as they obviously need a third baseman. They went to a $150-million payroll last season and they already have almost $130-million committed for 2015. Are they willing to go well above $150-million?

UPDATE 7:25- I was waiting for this- Jerry Crasnick tweeted “Don’t count out the Yankees with Jon Lester”

If the Yankees are going to sign a major free agent pitcher, and I hope they won’t, I hope it is Jon Lester. Is that a backhanded endorsement?

 

Crank Up The Rumor Mill

The Winter Meetings are upon us. The hot stove will be ablaze and plenty of moves will follow. We will post frequently as news warrants.

For now, a few predictions about what will unfold over the next four days. These are guaranteed to be wrong, but let’s have some fun.

1- Max Scherzer doesn’t come close to signing a deal, but everyone keeps reporting that he does.

2- David Robertson gets a 5-year/$50 million deal from Houston.

3- Jon Lester gets a contract over $150 million

4- The Red Sox trade for Jordan Zimmermann

5- The Yankees trade for Danny Espinosa

6- Melky Cabrera gets $100-million deal.

And away we go!

A Team of Outfielders

This morning I’m left scratching my head.  Yes, part of it is my dandruff condition, but also the Red Sox now have 8 outfielders in the fold.  Oh yeah, and they are doing exactly what they said they wouldn’t do and that is sign 30+ year old players to big contracts.

Reports are flying around this morning that the Red Sox have agreed to terms with both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  Both men have reportedly agreed to 5 year deals worth in the range of $90-$100m.  The Ramirez deal seems firm while there are suggestions the Sandoval deal isn’t a lock so let’s focus on the Ramirez deal.

With Ramirez, who will be 31 when the season starts, the Red Sox have perhaps a third baseman or a left fielder.  If Sandoval signs, Ramirez will be in left, if Sandoval doesn’t sign, Ramirez is your new third baseman.  Signing both would mean the Red Sox have the following major league outfielders on their roster:

Ramirez, Betts, Victorino, Cespedes, Castillo, Bradley Jr., Craig and Nava.  Holt played a few innings there too last season, but let’s leave him out of this discussion.

What are they going to do with all of those outfielders?  Really, what?  I think this means Cespedes is a goner.  He has 1 year left on his deal, has told the world he will test free agency and the Red Sox aren’t allowed to tender him meaning they would not get a draft pick if they lose him.  Yes he has power, but he produced a sub .300 OBP last year and despite having a great arm, doesn’t seem to have a glove.  There were also whispers, quickly refuted by the Red Sox, that he wasn’t a teachable player.

That still leaves a logjam, but it is a start at clearing it out.

Ramirez wasn’t popular amongst his Red Sox teammates when he was traded in 2005 but he is a good offensive player when healthy and 9 years later, perhaps he has tamed his attitude a bit and won’t cause any friction.  Signing him is a direct contradiction to proclamations last year that long term deals to older players is a mistake.  Perhaps that leaves me with hope that Jon Lester still might re-sign.

I guess I have nothing left to say as there are far too many holes in the Red Sox team for me to get excited over 1 or 2 free agent signings.  Someone still has to pitch and right now their rotation is a mess.

Kung-Fu Panda

ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox are “all-in” in an attempt to sign Pablo Sandoval.  While the free agency process is filled with posturing and interesting rumors, there’s no doubt Sandoval would be a useful addition.

The worries, however, start with the fact he is not a highly conditioned athlete and history shows that those types don’t generally have long-lasting careers.  Couple that with the fact he is at free agency for the first time and trying to make a financial score, and this might not be the best thing for the Red Sox to do.

He is only 28 years old but let’s consider other baseball players who aren’t/weren’t in tip-top condition:

Prince Fielder – 30 years old and in the middle of a massive contract.  He played in only 42 games in 2014 and while it is too soon to count him out, I’d be very worried if I were the Texas Rangers.

Cecil Fielder – He starred in his 20’s but as his last all-star season was at age 32.  He was out of baseball at age 34.

Greg Luzinski – Now I was young when Luzinski was playing, but I remember him as a large fellow.  Please correct me if I am wrong. His career was done at 33.

John Kruk – At his own admission, he is not a fitness freak and was out of baseball at 34 (although was reasonably productive in his last years).

Ryan Howard – Wow, am I picking on Phillies players or what here?  Ryan is 34 and posted a .690 OPS this year.  His last good year was at age 31 and his contract runs for a few more years so I’d not be optimistic if I were his GM.

Adam Dunn – Announced his retirement at age 34.  His last very good year was at age 30 when he posted a .892 OPS.

Now there are outliers like David Ortiz.  He is a very large man yet here he is at age 38 still being productive and this guy named Babe Ruth played well to age 39.  Also keep in mind, baseball-reference has Kruk still listed at 5′ 10″, 170 lbs.  Sure.  I guess my point is this exercise isn’t scientific but I hope it supports the idea that a 6 year deal at $90-$100m for Sandoval is crazy in my opinion.  His OPS has declined each of the last 4 seasons.  Perhaps you’d get 2-3 good years out of him but also 2-3 lousy years as well.

I’d pass if I were Boston.

 

GM Meetings

The Red Sox have the major task of building a starting rotation.  While they have a handful of OF talent to dangle in any trades, they also have a check book capable of paying some free agents.

2 names that have been discussed in Boston include Jon Lester and the Phillies Cole Hamels.  To get Lester, they need to match his asking price and even if he is offering a “home town discount” it’s still going to cost the Red Sox a great deal to land him.  Hamels, on the other hand, will require spending money (as in paying him his salary) and prospects.  Hamels is on the books for another 4 years at $22.5 each (and a 5th year that vest predicated on durability and good health).  So landing Hamels will mean they are only on the hook for 4 years guaranteed but they spend dearly by giving up prospects.

To me this is a no brainer, they should re-sign Lester.  Let’s say they can get him for 6 years and $120m and please, we all have ideas as to what it will take, but let’s use this as a starting point and acknowledge it could be higher or maybe even lower I if a home town discount is really possbile.  That allows the Red Sox to hold onto their prospects while the down side is an extra 2 years of liability for a pitcher who will be 31 in January.  Still I take my chances on Lester over Hamels.

Lester has proven he can pitch in Boston, not every pitcher can do it.

Now, that’s just one starting pitcher, they need another.  The GM meetings are when both trade and free agent ideas are floated and then the owners meetings are when things start to happen.

Can You Blame Him?

Chili Davis has chosen to be the next Red Sox hitting coach instead of the next Yankees hitting coach. I think it is a very smart move for Chili.

For one thing, the Red Sox actual have some young hitters he can work with. For another, the Yankees just fired a very respected hitting coach for not getting a bunch of 30-plus year olds to hit in 2014. Why would Chili think he could do any better? The Yankees will need to keep looking, and Dave Magadan will not be the choice.

In other news, the Yankees have tapped a former hitting coach, Gary Denbo, to take over as VP of Baseball Operations. The news on Denbo comes along with the news that Pat Roessler, the Director of Player Development is out. These are two encouraging moves as they demonstrate that the Yankees understand they need to fix their minor league system.

Great Job Boston

I want to compliment the Red Sox and all of Boston on a fabulous job this weekend. The fans were awesome and the way the club handled the Derek Jeter ceremony was incredible. While we may be enemies on the field, it is always great to see us come together off of it.

Red Sox Overhaul

In the 2 days leading up to MLB’s trade deadline, the Red Sox traded away 4 pitchers and one bat.

The Red Sox unloaded 60% of their opening day starting rotation, they unloaded a great situational lefty and they unloaded an overpaid shortstop. If you go back a full week they have unloaded 80% of their starting rotation as they also moved Jake Peavy.

Let’s start with the starters. In Jon Lester they got rid of the ace of their staff and in return received Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has great right-handed power, but little plate discipline and hits for a poor average, he is very good in the outfield however. Because they only control Cespedes through 2015, I don’t think the Red Sox got enough in return for Lester, especially when you consider all the work they’re going to need to do to be competitive in 2015. Cespedes could just walk after 2015, basically 1.4 year rental.

The Red Sox also moved John Lackey to the St. Louis Cardinals exchange for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. Craig is having one of his worst seasons as a major leaguer and has a .437 OPS over the past 28 days. Joe Kelly’ has been working out of the bullpen although has made starts in his career, but I’m not sure he fits in the Red Sox rotation. Craig will also struggle to find a position unless the Res Sox out him in left and Cespedes in right.

For Felix Doubront, whom they traded yesterday, the Red Sox are receiving a player to be named later.

In return for trading Andrew Miller to the Orioles, the Red Sox received another left-hander I know nothing about but who is considered the O’s 3rd best prospect.

Lastly, and what I considered to be their best trade, they traded Stephen Drew to the Yankees in exchange for Kelly Johnson. A pure salary dump. The best part about this trade is that it allows the Xander Bogaerts to move back to shortstop. Apparently the Red Sox are sending money to NY to even up the money, and because Johnson is on the DL, he might turn out to be a player to be named later.

Where Cespedes will play, where Craig will play, and if Kelly Johnson will play, all remain a mystery. One thing is for sure, the Red Sox are done for 2014 and are clearly looking ahead. But given some of the veterans they acquired, it seems like they’re trying to make a run for next year but I really don’t think they can rebuild the starting rotation that quickly.

They do have a logjam of starting pitching prospects in the minors so they will probably end up packaging a few of those to get established major-league pitchers for the rotation for 2015.

For the rest of this year I see an infield of Napoli at first base, Pedroia at second base, Middlebrooks at third-base, and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. In the outfield I like to see Craig in left field, Bradley in center, and Cespedes in right. With Vasquez catching and Ortiz DH.