Red Sox

A Bad Look for the Red Sox

Dustin Pedroia is right, the Red Sox certainly did mishandle the Manny Machado situation in Baltimore this past weekend.   Specifically, he threw his teammate and manager under the bus.

While I don’t necessarily expect him to approve of a retaliatory pitch against the Baltimore slugger, I do expect him to act as though he approves of it.

There’s no doubt Pedroia is one of the clubhouse leaders for the Red Sox and his word carries some weight, but to publicly denounce Matt Barnes’ action and tell Machado that he, Pedroia, had nothing to do with it, is a very bad look and feel for this team.  Of course, all of those concerned came out today and told us all was well, but if I’m Barnes, I’d be steamed.  Farrell?  Who cares what he says, he is the biggest polisher of garbage there is.

This is one of those make or break moments for a clubhouse.  If a division occurs, you can certainly point to this moment.  Pedroia isn’t necessarily one to care what others think, so if he didn’t convince Barnes and perhaps others that his intent wasn’t to alienate, this could be trouble.

 

Sale

Red Sox news has been scarce on this site, my apologies, life and lack of time has gotten in the way.

That said, I feel compelled to comment on new Red Sox starter, Chris Sale.  Keeping in mind this is a very short sample size, Sale, in his first 4 starts, has pitched 29.2 IP, allowed 15 hits, 6 bb,  3 ER with 42 K’s.  His starts are must-see TV and are reminiscent of Pedro Martinez’s time in Boston.  Sure the Red Sox have had good pitching since Martinez but none has been this dominant and dynamic.  And please don’t accuse me of comparing him to Martinez’s overall time in Boston, but so far he has been that exciting.

Of course, with today’s blown save by Craig Kimbrel, Sale only has a 1-1 record on the year.

Thank goodness for Sale, as the other Red Sox starters have posted the following ERAs:

Porcello – 5.32

Wright – 8.36

Rodriguez – 4.76

Pomeranz – 5.23

Johnson – 7.20

What’s that old saying, “Sale and then pray for rain?”  Has there every been 4 rain postponed games in a row for one team?  That’s how bad it is with this rotation.

The Best and The Worst

Over on fivethirtyeight.com they have a ranking of every team since 1903 using their ELO system. (For those of you unfamiliar with the site, it is run by Nate Silver, a Baseball Prospectus founder who got into political forecasting and runs the site under the ESPN umbrella.) It is a fun list to look at and contained some surprises for me.

1- The 1906 Cubs finished second, to the 1939 Yankees, with the 1927 Yankees finishing 3rd. Not a huge shock that the ’39 Yanks did so well, that was quite a team.

2- The 1998 Yankees were fifth showing how historically great that team was.

3- The 2009 Yankees were 33rd, which really surprised me. I don’t ever remember feeling that team was that good.

4- The 2004 Red Sox ranked 64th while the 2004 Yankees finished 256th. That works with my contention that they were simply better.

5- Before becoming the Yankees, the Highlanders were really bad, but he 1989, 1990, and 1991 Yankees all were near the bottom.  It is worth remembering how badly George Steinbrenner had decimated the team in the late 80’s and how great Gene Michael’s rebuilding job was.

6- The worst team ever was the 1904 Washington Senators, but the second-worst was the 2003 Tigers. Three years later they won the World Series. (Thanks to Greg for pointing out that it was only the ALCS. My brain is not what it once was.)

Anyway, it is a fun list and you can search it by team and year if you want.

Trouble Ahead!

On the surface, facing David Price tonight might be the best thing for the Yankees’ moribund offense. After all, Price sports a 5.76 ERA and has been pretty lucky to win three games so far this year.

But don’t be fooled by the ERA, he has also been the victim of some extremely bad luck. Pick your advanced stat, but I like FIP, which takes the fielding out of ERA, and his FIP is 2.38. That’s in large part to his insane strikeout ratio of 14.0 per 9, but it is validated by the fact that Price has a BABIP of .386. So if Price pitches like he has so far this season the Yankees are in deep trouble and a shutout is on the table.

If they lose tonight they will fall to 8-15. That’s pretty ugly, but not an anomaly. I’ve been away and have some thoughts about why this is happening. I will share them tomorrow.

 

Progress!

The Red Sox have announced that it will be Travis Shaw and not Pablo Sandoval taking the field as the everyday 3b.

This represents a massive change in philosophy for the Red Sox as they normally would forced the starting roll on their high-priced talent such as Hanley in left field last year or Rick Porcello staying in the rotation despite significant struggles.

It also sends a message to the other high-priced veterans that no one is above being benched.  This is a great development.  And considering how Sandoval showed up to camp this year, it means all the reports saying he was out to improve his play and show Boston fans that he is serious about baseball were just hollow words.  In other words, Sandoval got paid.

Here is the line-up: Betts – RF, Pedroia – 2b, Bogaerts – ss, Ortiz – dh, Ramirez – 1b, Shaw – 3b, Holt – lf, Swihart – c, Bradley – cf.

Your rotation is: Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly and Wright with the bullpen being: Kimbrel, Uehara, Tazawa, Ross, Layne, Barnes, Ramirez and the bench consisting of: Castillo, Young, Sandoval, Hanigan.

The Red Sox are certainly better than a last place team and certainly better than last year’s last place team but they have serious issue with the rotation.  After Price, I have very little confidence, especially with Eduardo Rodriguez out with a knee injury.

Pain Points

As camp progresses for the Red Sox, there are some major sources of pain, or at least potential pain.

Pablo Sandoval: No surprise here but he showed up in poor shape.  His fielding was poor last year and he had to abandon hitting from the right side.  And his hitting from the left side (.744 OPS) wasn’t worth nearly as much as he is being paid.  If Sandoval can’t figure it out, the Red Sox can use Travis Shaw at 3b.

Hanley Ramirez: After failing as an outfield last year, the Red Sox are trying to spin the idea of Hanley being a good candidate for first base.  It seems to make sense that a former shortstop could handle this roll but we are talking about Hanley Ramirez, the first baseman who showed up to camp without any first base gloves.  I know the idea here is to bridge the 2016 season and slot Ramirez into the DH spot once David Ortiz retires, but if he fails as a 1b, then that will essentially be 2 lost seasons on his 4 year deal.

Rusney Castillo: This is his 3rd season in pro ball and I sure hope he figures things out, he’s being paid to do so after all.  Castillo posted a .647 OPS in 289 plate appearances last season, not what we were hoping for but perhaps understandable for someone who was facing major league pitching for the first time aside from 10 games in 2014.  2016 is a big year for him, he needs to prove he can hit.

John Farrell:  First off, I’m very happy to learn Farrell is cancer free and his health isn’t an issue.  That said, he hasn’t done a very good job of late while managing the Red Sox.  When he took his leave of absence last year and Torey Lovullo took over, the team played much differently.  Farrell went 50-63, Lovullo 28-21.  Add to that the recent distraction of a local tv personality resigning her post when it came to light she and Farrell were involved.  Nothing against love, but if the players sense any resentment or feel there was a mole when it came to her reporting, that can’t be a good thing.  I wish them nothing but happiness but Farrell caused a major distraction for himself and his players.  He is on a very short leash, should he stumble out of the gate, he’ll get the boot from above.

Pricey Price

Well, Dave Dombrowski can’t be accused of being a liar.  He said his main goals this off-season were to sign a top flight starter, acquire a back of the bullpen arm and a complimentary right-handed bat off the bench.  Check, check and check.

The Red Sox traded for Craig Kimbrel last month, yesterday signed Chris Young and have agreed to terms with lefty starter David Price.  Price’s deal is reportedly for 7 years and $217m or $31m a year and he has an opt-out after the third year.

Price is definitely what the Red Sox needed, a top of the rotation starter.  Someone who can eat up 220 quality innings per year.  His addition allows the Red Sox to push their existing group of starters back a spot and perhaps consider moving Joe Kelly to the pen as he hasn’t shown anything as a starter and has a power arm.  The opt-out clause is interesting as it has been a trend for top talent to ask for the it in hopes of tacking on 3 years or so to their original deal at even higher money.  The hope by me is that Price pitches lights out for the first 3 years and then the Red Sox let him walk as he’ll be 33 by then.  Because the contract for 7 years and this much money is crazy even in the world of baseball.  Face it, if Price doesn’t opt out and/or pitches poorly, this could be a very bad contract for many years to come.

There is no doubting the Red Sox are a far better team now than they were at the end of the 2015 season as they have address very important issues.  At the risk of getting way ahead of myself, let me offer this look:

Rotation (Player, ERA+) : David Price: 172, Clay Buchholz: 132, Eduardo Rodriguez: 112, Rick Porcell0: .87 (he is making $20m this year…but his 2nd half, 3.53 ERA, was far better than his first half, 5.90 ERA) and who knows, Wade Miley: 96 or Henry Owens: 94.

Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel: 1.42, Koji Uehara: 194, Junichi Tazawa: 104, ummm, then the wheels fall off a bit as there is a lot of riff-raff to choose from like Robbie Ross, Tommy Layne, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and the list goes on.  Dembrowski, will likely want to add to this area.

Line-up (Player, OPS+): Xander Bogaerts: 108, Mookie Betts: 118, Dustin Pedroia: 113, David Ortiz: 141, Hanley Ramirez: 90, Pablo Sandoval: 76 (wow he was terrible last year and has to improve), Rusney Castillo: 73 (he too needs to show us something or else he will be traded), Jackie Bradley: 120 and Blake Swihart: 90 (not bad for a 23 year old rookie catcher).

Bench: Travis Shaw: 115 (great but can he do it again?), Brock Holt: 96,  Ryan Hanigan: 81 and Chris Young: 112 (mashed lefties last year).

So all in all there is some promise for this team, the rotation and bullpen could use quality upgrades and the line-up needs to be sorted out but I am happy thus far.  I especially like the off-season because Dombrowski hasn’t traded away the major league ready talent, he has kept the young core of positional plans, Betts, Bradley, Swihart and Bogaerts, in place.  The idea of building both through the farm and select free agency bets is the best way to build a team in my book.  Relying too much on either one can be disastrous.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the Red Sox really need to add depth to the rotation and especially to the bullpen for this team to make a deep push in the postseason.

Price To Boston

I’m sure Andy will have a post about this later, but I just wanted to post now that the news is out that David Price is headed to Boston. The money is big, as we thought it might be- $217-million over 7 years. It makes gives Price the biggest contract ever for a pitcher and assuming it is evenly averaged over the length of the deal, Price will make about $1-million per start.

Price gets rightfully knocked for not pitching well in the postseason, but he is a wonderful pitcher and solves a big problem for Boston. The money in this deal is astounding, especially when you consider how the Red Sox lowballed Jon Lester, but the ultimate way to judge this deal in my mind is if the Red Sox win a World Series with Price. If they do, great deal. If they don’t, ugh. In many ways this is exactly like the Yankees deal with Sabathia after the 2008 season. Both teams gave a stud lefty a seven-year, record-breaking deal, with an opt-out after three seasons. The Yankees won their World Series and then made the mistake of bringing Sabathia back after he opted-out. We will have to wait to see if Boston gets similar results and makes a similar error.

The Rivalry Ignites Again!

Multiple outlets are reporting that the Red Sox have signed Chris Young to a multiyear deal. Clearly Yankee fans will have a target to boo vociferously when the Red Sox come to town in 2016.

Ok, maybe not. Young was a nice complementary player for the Yankees. He murdered left-handed pitching and played all three outfield spots. But, he was clearly not needed when the Yankees traded for Hicks. And while the details of his new deal are not known, the fact that it is for more than one year makes me a bigger fan of the Hicks trade than before. The Yankees picked Young off the waiver wire in 2014 and brought him back for an economical $2.5-million. I suspect the Red Sox will be paying him a lot more than that.

Interesting Theory-UPDATED

Joel Sherman has a column in the Post about the lack of movement in the free agency market. He points out that at this point last year, Sandoval, Ramirez, Martin, Martinez, and Cuddyer had already signed. Yet, there hasn’t been much of any movement on the free agency front so far.

Sherman speculates that perhaps teams have learned their lesson. He points to the fact that apart from the Blue Jays and Russell Martin, every other team that quickly signed a big free agent last year would probably gladly give him up today for nothing in exchange beyond salary relief. Ramirez and Sandoval for the Red Sox. The Mets with Cuddyer. The Tigers with Martinez. The list goes on, and the anonymous quotes from various personnel directors make you wonder if he is right.

But as he points out, it only takes one team to change the calculus of the situation. If the Red Sox, as Andy has speculated, jump all in on the Price bandwagon, he could get things going. Advanced metrics love Jason Heyward, and he is only 26. Either one of those guys could break the bank and there are plenty of other names out there in line for a big payday. I suspect things will start to heat up this week, and in a year or two most teams will regret the contracts they have agreed to.

11:47- We may have a break in the logjam. Jon Herman is reporting the Tigers have reached a deal with Jordan Zimmerman. No contract details yet.

12:10- Heyman posted a story online about the signing, but no details on the length/money.