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Former major leaguer and current columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Charley "Shooter" Walters is reporting that the Red Sox have moved to the front of the line in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and the players involved aren't who you think.

Walters source? "A little birdie."

The deal is focusing on Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowry (sic) and Justin Masterson in return for Santana.

To be sure, that is a bunch of talent, but it isn't Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Lowrie is at AAA, Masterson AA, Crisp the former starting CF in Boston and Lester is in Boston (like you didn't know that). Minnesota would be getting a starting CF, a lefty starter with good upside in Lester, a SS with a good glove and some pop and a big sinkerballer in Masterson who projects to be a Derek Lowe type of arm.

Of course the next step would be signing Santana, who has a no-trade clause, and who is thought not to be interested in coming to Boston. Players have said that before and usually get some cash thrown at them to make Boston a more enjoyable place to play.

Johan Santana - I don't like Boston.
Theo Epstein - Here's $10 million more dollars.
JS - I love Boston.

It's a common negotiating tact and one that shouldn't be a stumbling block. Of course, I have no idea if Charley Walters is reliable. He apparently broke the recent Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal, so maybe there is something to this.

My take? I do this deal in a heartbeat. The part that brings me most concern is the size and length of contract Santana would want. Reports are 6 years, $150mm. I just posted yesterday that long-term pitcher deals can be disastrous (Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle) but occasionally are great (Pedro Martinez's Red Sox deal, Randy Johnson's original Arizona deal, Greg Maddux deal with Atlanta). So there is big time risk.

I also pointed out last week that the Red Sox currently have a relatively low payroll of around $121mm. If they added $25mm in Santana and subtracted Crisp at $5mm, it is a net result of adding $20mm or so to the payroll. Peter illustrated, however, that there is a higher cost to a Santana deal in that you have to factor in the luxury tax. In Peter's piece, he mentioned that the Yankees have a higher cost because they'd need to replace Cabrera (if he were included) in CF and maybe a few other parts and their tax might be higher, but you get idea.

For Boston, this makes more sense as you have a min. cost CF in Ellsbury ready to step in, Santana replaces Lester in the rotation and Lowrie and Masterson are prospects. I can't believe I am saying this, but I make this deal. Bring it on!

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (0)

The Winter Meetings start a week from today in Nashville, TN. After some fun filled joy at Opryland (is that still open?), expect the Red Sox front office folk to work on improving the 2008 squad.

Buster Olney had an interesting take on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Let's say the Twins are able to piece together a trade for Santana, well Santana has a full no-trade clause. Santana is due to be a free agent after the 2008 season. He can veto any deal thus gaining leverage. If he puts the kibosh on it, he can either demand a greater contract extension from the acquiring team, or simply wait until after the 2008 season to become a free agent and the skies the limit.

Word on the street is that Santana is asking for 6 years, $150mm. Wow. That's more than any pitcher has ever earned (Roger Clemens beat that in 2007, but it was prorated). Great, you've just traded for a pitcher that is going to ask for $25mm a season. Oh yeah, and don't forget, in order to get him, you had to give up 2 of your best prospects (maybe 3).

With all of that in mind, I say the Red Sox should act the part of interested trade partner, but unless Santana wants less money and the Twins less prospects, stick with what they have. I think Yankee fan, on Peter's side, Mitchell had this figured out last week when he stated in the comments that Santana is going to be a free agent in 2008. I now agree.

So Theo Epstein, kick the tires, but don't pull the trigger. While Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz are largely unproven over a 162 game season, I like their chances. Even if they both flop, you still have roughly $25mm not spent on Santana to deploy.

To lend further credence to my argument, Olney reported yesterday (via Peter Gammons) that the Twins are asking for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. That's a starting pitcher with # 1 stuff potential, a starting centerfielder and a young centerfield prospect in Jackson. That's expensive. But if it isn't involving Joba and Kennedy, the Yankees might bite. Obviously NY can afford the contract, but they might not be willing to part with the talent. A comparable deal for Boston would be Buccholz, Ellsbury and a lesser prospect. Too expensive.

No word on where Coco Crisp will be traded if anywhere. There is a chance Boston will hang on to Crisp and trade him when the offer is right. This might make for a grumpy Crisp, but he did handle his playoff demotion well and I would expect he'd do the same if this scenario played out.

With 21 of 25 rosters spots filled, the Red Sox have committed $121,110,000 in payroll for 2008 (my calculation). The last 4 spots aren't likely to be more than $1mm each (and could be less if filled by rookies). Additionally, if Crisp ($4.75mm) gets moved, it might even go down. This is a dramatic decrease from 2007's $143,026,214 as taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. This means the Red Sox are either happy at this level (John Henry's business has struggled and his new home was really expensive and shark fin soup is tough to get) or they have plans for additional talent acquisition. That is some serious cash to play with if the latter scenario plays out. Your thoughts? Do the Red Sox stand pat or go out and acquire (who cares how, trade, free agency, etc) a mega talent to bolster the roster? I say they stand pat.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

That's my prediction anyway.

Johan Santana might be available later this off-season should the Twin fail to sign him to a long term deal. The Twins are opening a new park in 2009, so they probably want a marque pitcher to go along with their marque catcher in Joe Mauer.

That being said, should he become available, the Red Sox are likely to make a pitch. The pros: Santana is the best lefty in baseball if not the best pitcher in baseball. He is only 28 and in his prime. A lefty in Yankees Stadium is always a good thing. The cons: He will cost a ton to acquire. Even if he is acquired, it will take a ton of cash to sign him ($20mm a year for 6 years).

The larger question for the Red Sox is that in order to get him, we as fans are going to have to say goodbye to 2 or 3 top prospects. Not the Michael Bowden's or Aaron Bates', but the Jacoby Ellsbury's and/or Clay Buccholz's.

The Red Sox have worked hard to build up a farm system. Winning the 2007 World Series proved that not only have they worked hard at it, they've also succeeded with Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen contributing (Youkilis I believe was a draft choice of the Dan Duquette regime). With that in mind, they can choose to use the talent or trade the talent (or a little of both). Using the talent means costs are contained given the current salary structure for young players. But talent doesn't always translate into quality MLB performance, so trading unproven talent for proven talent generally yields better returns. Of course that isn't always true, but with a skilled front office, you'd hope that trading for a Johan Santana would help your squad, right?

If I'm the Red Sox front office, I make a pitch.. You have to. Coco Crisp is in no matter what as the Twins need a CF should they lose Torii Hunter. Then I offer either Jonathan Lester OR Clay Buccholz, but not both. Lastly, I top off the offer with prospect that is further away like a Justin Masterson or Nick Hagadone. If that isn't enough to get the job done, then see you later. That would mean a team like the Yankees would have to beat the Red Sox offer and it means they are giving up a Cano or Cabrera, Hughes OR Chamberlain and a Kennedy. Remember, they'd have to beat that offer, one would hope. I think Cano is a better talent than Crisp, so they have the edge there, but he doesn't play CF, not yet anyway.

I do not like the idea of having to face Johan 3-4 times each season should the Yankees land him. I believe at the end of the day he winds up a Yankees. Why? They are far less inclined to rebuild (see the $400mm they've committed this off-season so far) and probably have more pitching talent to trade than do the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees starting pitching wasn't good last year and being able to plug in Santana for 225 IP would be a huge boost.

So there you have it and I'm not apologizing for the teaser title.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

While it isn't official, ESPN is reporting Mike Lowell has agreed to the framework of a 3 year, $37.5mm deal ($12.5mm per). Peter Gammons said Lowell could have had a 4 year deal from 2 other teams, but wanted to stay with the Red Sox. For those who were questioning the things that were important to Lowell, now you know. And as I mentioned yesterday, this is great work by the Red Sox. They get back an important piece at their price.

With this signing, the Red Sox have taken care of a all of their big outstanding issues. 25-man Roster:

c - Varitek
1b - Youkilis
2b - Pedroia
3b - Lowell
ss - Lugo
lf - Manny
cf - Ellsbury
rf - Drew
dh - Ortiz
bench - Crisp
bench - Cora

sp - Beckett
sp - Matsuzaka
sp - Schilling
sp - Wakefield
sp - Lester
sp - Buccholz
rp - Papalbon
rp - Okajima
rp - Delcarmen
rp - Tavarez

That leaves 4 spots open, a back-up catcher, a bench outfielder, a utility guy (with OF and IF capability, ala Hinske) and 2 pitchers (or 1 pitcher and another bench guy). Usually at this point, there is a ton to figure out and many questions to answer, but 2007 is different. Peter and I discussed this today, the lack of talent in the free agent pool means most, if not all of the major decisions are done. All that is left for Boston is to trade Crisp, fill out the bench and settle on the rest of the bullpen. Those are relatively minor decisions when discussing the 2008 Red Sox.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 02:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN radio says that Buster Olney, of ESPN.com, is reporting that the Red Sox are close to re-signing Mike Lowell. Now take that for what it is worth as I have been up and down ESPN.com and cannot find a link. Olney's daily report is from Sunday, so I am guessing when they update to today's report, we will see something.

Extra reading. I found this on ESPN.com and hadn't seen it. This bond might explain the reason Boston exercized teh option on Tavarez. Tavarez is one of a kind...

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Update: Olney apparently said on ESPN Radio that Lowell is close to signing a 3 year, $36mm deal from the Red Sox. I'll believe it when I see (read) it. If this ends up being true, it explains why guys like Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington are making baseball decisions and not us. Also, Olney's blog is now updated to reflect the Red Sox/Mike Lowell situation.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Boston Herald and Boston Globe are both reporting that Mike Lowell's suitors now number one. The one being the Red Sox. The Globe sites ESPN's Peter Gammons who said he believed the Yankees had withdrawn their offer to Lowell with the signing of Alex Rodriguez.

That means he has a 3-year deal worth something in the $36mm to $42mm range from Boston. Word is he wants a 4th year and who can blame him?

Both the Globe and Herald are suggesting he might make a decision this weekend. My concern is that both the Anaheim Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers are making a play for Florida Marlins Miguel Cabrera. The loser might be apt to make a run at Lowell if he is still on the market. So it might make sense to Lowell's team to wait things out. That being said, you can be sure the Red Sox offer isn't not going to last forever. Their leverage is that they can withdraw their offer at anytime and I'm sure Lowell knows this.

So there is risk in any decision. Lowell can wait to see if a better offer comes along, but get left holding the bag if Boston withdraws its offer (and Boston would then be dealing from strength), or he can sign now with Boston (but potentially leave money on the table if either LA club were to have offered a better deal). The Red Sox risk losing Lowell too should they jank their offer. No matter what, it really does seem that Lowell has 1 legit offer on the table now and that is from Boston. Seems like a no-brainer to me Mike. Let's sign that contract and enjoy the next 3 seasons.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles have NOT offered Mike Lowell a deal. So if you believe reports, he has offers not from Atlanta, St. Louis, or Philly, but instead New York (Yankees) and Boston. The Angels are after Miguel Cabrera. If they fail to get Cabrera, perhaps they will turn their attention to Lowell. But just how long will the Marlins negotiate before they pull the trigger on a deal for Cabrera?

When matched up against all the reports in the last 24 hours, Lowell has 2 offers, from the Yankees and Red Sox. In the words of Fletch: "Irwin M. Fletcher you choose..."

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has this to say about the Lowell situation. The key being he has talked to a source in the Atlanta organization who said Lowell has not been part of their planning and rumors out of St. Louis suggest they aren't interested either, both run contrary to the WHDH report from yesterday.

That does leave New York in the running as well as Anaheim.

Also from the Herald, Tony Massarotti has this to say about the Lowell situation. He indicates that Philadelphia also has interest, but there are no details of an offer.

Massarotti suggesst that the time is quickly coming that Lowell has to figure out what he should do:

4 years, $48mm - $60mm from someone like NY or Anaheim.

or

3 years, $36mm from Boston (ESPN is reporting it could be 3 years worth as much as $45mm).

Of course if Lowell is still productive after 3 years, he can re-up with Boston or someone else. But that is no guarantee (which is why Boston isn't budging on their offer). So if he signs with Boston, he is leaving 1 year and between $12mm - $24mm. That is a bunch of money.

Again, my heart tells me to go to 4 years. I mentioned this the other day too, why not offer a vesting 4th year option that has fairly easy triggers? At the very least Boston gets some certainty out of the 4th year. But get ready for disappointment Boston fans.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 01:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Wow, this ARod saga is getting out of hand. Glad I'm not a Yankee fan. Talk about being conflicted.

Of greater importance to Red Sox fans is the status of Mike Lowell. WHDH TV 7 is reporting that 4 teams have offered Lowell a 4 year deal with total money in the $55mm - $60mm range. WHDH says the teams are the Angels, Braves, Cardinals and Yankees. The Yankees want him to play 1b.

Now if the Red Sox really want to re-sign Lowell, they have to go to 4 years. If the reports are true that Boston has offered 3 years, $36mm, then a 4th year would drive that to $48mm, below the range listed above, but probably enough to get him to sign.

I have no idea which way the Red Sox will go should they lose Lowell. But the key is, despite what I am suggesting, giving him a 4th year, the Red Sox have a track record on limiting the length on contracts. Just ask Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez. Both the Damon and Martinez decisions were widely criticized in Boston at the time, but both have to be considered the right move. Pedro had a good 2005, but was an average pitcher in 2006 before undergoing surgery missing the rest of 2006 and most of 2007. Damon gave the Yankees a good 2006, but struggled in 2007 and ended up in leftfield. His power numbers aren't what you want from a leftfielder.

Of course it will be sad if Lowell goes as he was such an important part of the team, but that is baseball and you can be sure the Red Sox front office has set a value on Lowell and there is little wiggle-room. I was about to say I wish they'd done the same with J.D. Drew, but that grand slam was huge.

I am finding it difficult to find much news on the Lowell negotiations leading me to believe there isn't much action between the Red Sox and Lowell camps at present. The further leads me to believe that the Red Sox are sticking to their guns.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

This post could also be titled "Oh crap, we lost Lowell."

Seriously, what if Mike Lowell says no to Boston and ends up in Florida (once Miguel Cabrera is traded)? Boston will have a hole to fill. Let's eliminate one idea right away. There should be no moving Kevin Youkilis to 3b...unless St. Louis offers up Albert Pujols. Why move a gold glove player to another position? It doesn't make sense. So with that in mind, who are the options?

Miguel Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez
Chad Spann

Cabrera: An outstanding talent, Cabrera is only 24 yet has produced: 313/.388/.542 with 138 HRs, 523 RBI in 5 seasons in the majors. The knock on Cabrera is he can't play D. Compared to Mike Lowell, that is probably true, but otherwise he is an average major league 3b based on errors and range factors. He has a career .954 fld% compared to a league average of the same. His range is a 2.52 vs a league average of 2.70. Lower yes, but not by much. So giving him the benefit of the doubt, he is the same as league average. The main issue with Cabrera is his weight. He is listed as 6'2" 185 on baseball-reference.com, Firstinning.com has him at 210. But seeing him today, he appears much heavier. I won't try to guess, but the key is his weight has increased dramatically since his debut. Consensus: He will be expensive and there is some concern his performance will decline as his waistline grows.

ARod: Best position player in baseball. He is an amazing offensive talent and can more than hold his own defensively at 3b or SS. That we know. The questions about ARod generally revolve around clubhouse presence, post-season performance and value. ARod has a questionable reputation amongst his teammates, has never produced in the post-season and presents a horrible value. A horrible value if a team were to give him $35mm a season. That is too much money for one player if not because it takes up a large % of resources but also because it creates a class issue within the team. I suppose there are classes anyway, but he automatically would become the uber personality based on income, not necessarily accomplishment. Buyer beware.

Spann: The Red Sox don't have a 3b ready to fill in in their farm system. Chad Spann is the Pawtucket 3b, but he doesn't project to be in Boston in 2008. Keep looking.

The more I look at this, the more it makes sense to sign Lowell. Of course there are plenty of 3b's in baseball and Boston might very well have some trade ideas, but those scenarios are too many to discuss here. We will probably find out their decision/course of action soon.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)