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October 31, 2007

Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling provided a list of 14 teams, including Boston, that he would consider playing for next season.  Schilling, on his blog 38Pitches, give us insight into the free agency process from a players point of view.  Very interesting.  I have heard/read a lot in the past 24 hours that it is looking like he won't be back, but he really doesn't say that and in fact expresses his desire to remain with Boston given the choice.

After Boston, he lists:  Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, New York (Mets), Philadelphia, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Chicago (Cubs),  St. Louis and Milwaukee.

Take a read and decide for yourself.

My take on Schilling is that it would be very nice to have him around next season.  Certainly his season doesn't warrant another year at $13m, but I would consider $8-10m.  Here are some of the cold hard facts:

 20062007
ERA3.973.87
WHIP1.2161.245
IP204151
H220165
BB2823
K183101
W159
L7

8

K/BB6.544.39
K/98.076.02

ERA and WHIP look pretty similar.  What is noticeable is the drop off in innings.  As pitchers get older, it isn't expected that they will pitch more innings than the year before, so it should be expected that they shouldn't be paid as much either.  But moving on, His K/BB ratio and K/9 are the most telling stats.  Essentially his K rate has dropped meaning he is getting more of his outs via balls put in play.  While a pitcher can't control what happens to balls put into play (other than home runs) he can control things by avoiding BB, Hit-by-pitches and by striking out more batters.

Voros McCracken has pioneered Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) which many teams, probably like the Red Sox, use extensively to evaluate pitchers.  I say the Red Sox probably use it b/c they employed McCracken for a time (I'm not certain if he still works for them or not).  For Schilling, his inability to strike guys out has limited his effectiveness.

Anyway, I'm not sure he will be back, but given his drop in effectiveness, I'd like him back at a reduced rate.  A rate that isn't going to kill should Schilling get hurt.  Schilling offers some additional perks as well as he is always going to help the young pitchers.  Thoughts?

October 30, 2007

Looking Ahead, Is It Too Soon?

While still enjoying things, my mind wandered to thoughts of 2008.  Just a few notes to consider when forming your strategies and opinions on how to construct a team capable of defending a world title.

Salaries coming off the books:

Matt Clement - $9.5m, Curt Schilling - $13m, Mike Lowell - $8m, Tim Wakefield - $4m, Julian Tavarez - $3.35m, Eric Hinske - $2.8125m, Mike Timlin - $2.7m, Wily Mo Pena (already gone) - $2.5m, J.C. Romero (already gone) - $1.6m, Brendan Donnelly - $1.4m, Doug Mirabelli - $750k, Eric Gagne - $6m, Bobby Kielty - $500k.

That's over $56m in payroll that drops off the books.  Now consider that raises are in order for Kevin Youkilis (first year arb. elig.) and slight increases for Jonathan Papelbon and the other guys under 3 full seasons, but still there is going to be cash available.  Also consider that Coco Crisp is likely to be traded this off-season.  His $5.17m put it to $60m in freed up cash.

Some of that extra cash will also be spent on Mike Lowell, should he be re-signed.  If he gets $12m that cuts the resources to $48m, still enough to make significant inroads to helping the team.  But please tell me, won't you, just where you'd spend that money.

Your immediate options include re-signing current free agents and perhaps considering giving long term deals to Papalbon and Kevin Youkilis ala Nomar Garciaparra.  The idea would be to have them sign into their free agency years.  Those are just a few.  While we can all keep enjoying these good times, there is work to be done to keep this train a rollin'.

Anyway, I'll cut it at that and let me know your ideas.

October 29, 2007

Boston Red Sox - 2007 World Series Champions

Wow, so many New Englanders just won free furniture from Jordan's.  That's what this World Series win is all about, free furniture.  All all of the nation won free tacos too.  That's right, coast to coast, free tacos.

Ok, it feels good to have a 2nd Championship in 4 years too.

I think Tom Werner said it best (I can't believe I just said that) when during the postgame ceremony, that 2004 was for all Red Sox fans of present and past while this one was for the fans today proving that the Red Sox could do it again.

MVP - Mike Lowell

Not a bad pick.

So many others contributed both this postseason and all season long.  Lowell, Okajima, Papelbon, Ortiz, Ramirez, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett and Francona.  I'm not sure what I'm writing about right now as it takes a team, from top to bottom and no one individual makes a team.

Soak it in Red Sox fans and stake out your spot on the victory parade (whether on the street or on your couch...or Tivo).

All the worry about blowing the AL East lead, signing J.D. Drew to an outrageously large contract, Julio Lugo stinking to start the year, getting down 3-1 to Cleveland, that worry can all be dismissed.  The Red Sox won the World Series.

Hats off to Bobby Kielty too as his home run, extending the lead to 3 runs, was the winning run.  Jon Lester too.

One last note before I sign off.  Just what was Fox thinking when they decided Game 4 of the World Series was a good time to spend 15 minutes talking about Alex Rodriguez?  If baseball is supposed to mean anything, isn't it insulting to Rockies fans, Red Sox fans and baseball fans in general to talk about a guy and his opting out of a contract during a tense part of the World Series?  Alex Rodriguez and his agent Scott Boras called Fox reporter/columnist Ken Rosenthal during the game to get maximum publicity for ARod's cause.  What a joke.  Boras obviously doesn't respect the game if he felt tonight was the appropriate time to let the world know of his client's intentions.

I know, it's all about money for Boras and ARod.  Enjoy your money Alex and your mercenary approach to baseball.  And if you think he has really opted out of this deal, you might not have ever been involved in a negotiation.  Boras is using his leverage on this one don't forget he has 10 days from now to officially decide.  Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, just when I thought I could stand you two, you take the ARod story and run with it.  Poor timing lads.

Now that the season is over, feel free to talk about it, but not during the World Series.  Alright, rant over.  I do hope Fox doesn't hold lifetime rights to MLB playoffs though.

Be safe Red Sox fans and find a way to safely enjoy this win.

October 28, 2007

World Series Game 3

Game 3 was a roller coaster at times, a breeze at others.  A quick start, followed by a slide, then concluded with another explosion.  I don't like to say these kinds of things, but the Red Sox line-up is just playing really well right now, much better than Colorado's line-up.  They are relentless in their approach.  If a pitcher isn't throwing strikes, he is generally screwed.  The Red Sox will make him pay.

I had a few gripes with Terry Francona tonight, but to his credit, he did the best he could given his resources.  First, why bring in Lopez against Hawpe who, as Tim McCarver said, had trouble with heat.  Lopez is an 88-89 pitcher tops and Hawpe took advantage of that.  There was another, but I am so tired, I can't remember what it was.  No matter, the Red Sox won!

Only 1 team has come back from a 3-0 game deficit.  I can't remember who it was though.  Hmmm.

Game 4 Sunday 8:23pm (so Fox claims).  Jon Lester vs. Aaron Cook.

Oh yeah, Daisuke Matsuzaka's 2 run single was probably the most unlikely thing I have ever seen.  Great stuff.  Ok, sleep time.  Drool city, here I come.

October 26, 2007

Youkilis to Sit Saturday

Terry Francona announced today that Kevin Youkilis is the odd man out in game 3.  He didn't say if Youkilis would also be the designated sitter for game 4.  With Youkilis on the bench, David Ortiz will play first.

I expect that Youkilis will play game 4 and Lowell will sit and if there is a game 5, Ortiz will sit as the Red Sox will be facing Jeff Francis, a lefty, again.

World Series - Game 2

A night of outstanding pitching for the Red Sox.  Curt Schilling was able to get his creaky joints working enough to get him through 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.  Schilling admitted after the game that he wasn't able to get loose in the top of the 6th, hence the quick hook at only 82 pitches.  A solid game for him..

As good as Schilling was last night, I was most impressed with Hideki Okajima.  Time after time this year, he has stepped up.  Last night he gave the Red Sox 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.  That is amazing middle relief and allowed Terry Francona to go right to Jonathan Papelbon in the 8th.  Great job.  Where would the Red Sox be without Okajima this year?  Probably playing golf.

Papelbon also deserves credit.  After giving up a single to Matt Holliday (Holliday had 4 of the 5 Rockies hits last night), Papelbon noticed Holliday's 89 foot lead off first and easily picked him off.  Holliday after the game said he knew he needed to get to 2nd to get himself into scoring position, but he gave away his intentions with his ridiculously large lead.  Hat's off to Holliday though, he was basically all Colorado had in game 2.

The bats took the night off (for both teams).  Game 3 Saturday night in Colorado.  Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Lynn native Josh Fogg.  A 2-0 World Series lead is nice, but no guarantee.  You remember 1986, don't you?

Notes:

 - For all the calls for Jacoby Ellsbury to replace Coco Crisp, he is hitting .188/.316/.188 (yes, a .504 OPS) in the postseason and .143/.333/.143/.476 in the World Series.  Despite his lack of production, he still seems to be far more productive than did Crisp (.156/.182/.188/.370).  Ellsbury is popular right now and even if he isn't hitting, people are happier to have him in there right now.  Perception is an interesting thing.  Let me know your thoughts on whether Ellsbury or Crisp is the better option right now.  I say Ellsbury as they have won all games he has started.  That doesn't mean Ellsbury had a ton to do with those wins, but why mess with it, right?

 - I was lucky to be at Fenway last night courtesy of my bro (thanks bro).  We had standing room only tickets, but we had little luck finding room to stand.  Fenway was packed dangerously full last night.  There was one moment just prior to the game when were negotiation traffic at the top of the firstbase grandstands where the mass of people basically stopped.  There was no Fenway security to help and panic/anger almost boiled over.  One father was with his young son and even asked me for help keeping an eye on the poor kid.  The crazy part was I was shoulder to shoulder with a Boston Fire official who had little to say about the issue.  I'm not sure if he was working or just taking in the game.  Fenway just doesn't have the real estate to allow for such crowds.  They need to either limit capacity (best idea) or expand.  Expanding is probably limited to vertical expansion, but whatever they need to do to make the place safe, they ought to do it.  Until they do expand, they seem content to put up temporary seats anywhere possible to pack 'em in.

October 24, 2007

World Series Game One

Josh Beckett striking out the side in the top of the first and Dustin Pedroia hitting a lead-off home run in the bottom of the first basically set the tone for game 1.  The Red Sox pounded the Rockies who looked a bit lost.

In case you didn't hear Fox broadcasters mention the fact the Rockies were coming off an 8 game lay-off, well they were coming off an 8 game lay-off.  I have no idea if that was the real reason nothing worked for them, but that certainly will be the theory.

I'm glad the Red Sox put this one in the books, but there is a ton of baseball left and they cannot expect Colorado to roll-over again.  Boston will have to work hard to make sure they stay focused.  We should all hope Terry Francona does his best Bill Belicheck impression and, no, not start using videotape, but convinces his players that they did make mistakes and that one game does not a World Series Champion make.

Notes:

One of the funniest conversations ever was when Fox had a microphone on Royce Clayton.  Clayton and Coco Crisp were talking about Taco Bell's promotion giving away free tacos if anyone stole a base in game one.  "I ain't got my taco."

Eric Gagne worked his 2nd consecutive "clean" inning.  Maybe keeping him on the roster was a good move despite his work coming in garbage time.

Fox broadcasters were questioning why Beckett pitched through 7 innings thinking Francona should have yanked him sooner.  I have to assume it was because he only ended up throwing 93 pitches and any chance you get to save the bullpen, you take.

As much talk about the Rockies winning their first 2 rounds so easily resulting in the 8 game lay-off and how it might impact their performance, we are now going to hear about how such an easy game 1 victory might impact the Red Sox later in the series.

Did you realize only 5 guys on the active roster were around when the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series?  Mike Timlin, Jason Varitek, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.  Tim Wakefield was on the 2004 squad, but is inactive this round and Kevin Youkilis was on the team in 2004, but not on the active roster for the World Series.  When I heard that on Fox, it made me realize just how quickly a team can change.

Fox also showed a stat that the Red Sox set a record for largest game 1 margin of victory in a World Series.  The previous high was 11 and the winner of game 1 went on to lose the World Series in both instances.  It is stats like those that make you realize that it is just 1 game and no matter how big the margin of victory, it all gets left in that game with game 2 starting with a clean slate.  It is also Fox's way of sensationalizing everything.

Joe Buck went to lengths to tell us that Todd Helton has always been just as good a hitter on the road as he has at home in Coors.  Really?

Career numbers for Helton:

home: .367 avg, .465 obp, .663 slg, 1.128 OPS, 185 HRs

road: .295 avg, .394 obp, .502 slg, .896 OPS, 118 HRs.

Joe, does that look like the same production to you?  What a lame, lazy comment.

Thursday night is listed again as an 8:23pm start (Wednesday's game was listed as an 8:23pm start, but really got underway at about 8:35pm).  Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

October 23, 2007

Boston Red Sox - 2007 American League Champions

I was told the last post I had featured a lame title (thanks Peter).  How does this one sound?

News:  Tim Wakefield has been left off the roster due to injury.  Sad because he is a long time Red Sox and no one is more deserving of this opportunity than Wakefield.

Taking Wakefield's place?  Kyle Snyder.  Not a huge surprise, he pitched fairly well this year and can give you move than a few innings at a time.  Julian Tavarez was also a candidate and I think most would have expected him, but he threw a ton of innings this year and really wasn't sharp for the 2nd half of the season (5.48/1.59) and very bad in September (7.27/1.50).  Snyder probably fills the long relief/spot start role.  Let's hope we don't see him pitch an inning.

Surprise retention:  Eric Gagne.  Despite being, well, terrible thus far in a Red Sox uni, he made the cut.  Perhaps his game 6 outing, a "clean" inning, did the trick to convince management and Francona.

Keys to the World Series match-up against Colorado:

Ellsbury stays in the line-up.  This was actually confirmed by Francona today, so no worries there.

Jon Lester has to step up in his game 4 start.  He pitched well in his 2nd post-season appearance (game 4) shutting out the Indians over 3 innings, but he also imploded in game 2 with 2 earned runs in 0.2 IP including a HR allowed.  So he was certainly a mixed bag in the playoffs and this being his first postseason start, he needs to submit a solid outing.

Terry Francona has to figure out a way to best maximize the offense for the Colorado games.  With no DH, he has to figure out a rotation for Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.  I would give each one of them a night off and forget trying to figure out a way to get all 3 in.  I heard one suggestion on the radio today to bench Lugo, have Ortiz at 1b, Youkilis at 2b (yes, you read that right) and Pedroia at ss.  Please, let's not play that game.  Why would you move 2 very good fielders out of their position just to get Lowell, Youk and Ortiz all in the same game?  Bad Idea Jeans.

Game 1 Wednesday night at Fenway.  Josh Beckett vs. Jeff Francis.  8:23pm first pitch on, yes, you guessed it, Fox.

October 21, 2007

Final Round of the Playoffs

The Red Sox are in the World Series.  Give credit to the Cleveland Indians, they are a good squad and will probably be good for the next few years, unfortunately for the Red Sox and the rest of baseball.

Boston was able to win the game without having to use a starter in relief or by completely taxing the bullpen, although Terry Francona was plain wrong in having Hideki Okajima start the 8th inning.  Hideki had thrown 2 quality innings and just doesn't have more than that in him, that's why he was shut down in September because he had, for lack of a better term, a tired arm.  Come on Terry.  The team does have 2 days off now, so that is a good thing.

That criticism aside, good series Terry.  You eventually made a solid decision in benching Coco Crisp and inserting Jacoby Ellsbury.

I can't believe how close this game was and then how it went out of control.  Dustin Pedroia proved anyone (me) that doubted how ready he was for post-season play, wrong.  If it were up to me, I would have benched him in game 6 (2-4 with a walk) and maybe tonight (3-5, 5 rbi).  Down 3-1, the Red Sox pulled it out.  I was fairly grumpy these past few days, but never threw up the flag.  This team is good, perhaps not great, but certainly good enough to compete.

Classic postgame moment:  Chris Myers, interviewing Manny Ramirez, tried to ask Manny about the "controversial" play when Kenny Lofton was held at 3rd on the ball hit off the grandstand seats along 3rd.  Manny clearly thought Myers was asking about the ball Julio Lugo dropped when Manny had a chance to call him off.  Total miscommunication, quality entertainment.

In game complaints with Fox.  Both Joe Buck and Tim McCarver said it was a forgone conclusion that Lofton would have scored had Joel Skinner waived him in on the previously mentioned play, yet Fox never showed a shot of where Lofton was when Manny fielded the ball.  So to tell me that something is a guarantee, yet not provide anything to back it up is weak.

Anyway, here is the schedule, get your sleep in now.

World Series game 1 Wednesday @ Fenway, time TBD (I imagine some later than late times as usual).  UPDATE:  SOME TIMES NOW PUBLISHED.

GameMatchupDayDateTime ETTV
Gm 1COL @ BOSWedOct. 248:23pm FOX
Gm 2COL @ BOSThuOct. 258:23pm FOX
Gm 3BOS @ COLSatOct. 278:23pm FOX
Gm 4BOS @ COLSunOct. 288:23pm FOX
Gm 5*BOS @ COLMonOct. 29TBD FOX
Gm 6*COL @ BOSWedOct. 31TBD FOX
Gm 7*COL @ BOSThuNov. 1TBD FOX
* - if necessary

October 18, 2007

Back to Boston

Nice offensive display and an amazing pitching performace by Josh Beckett.  Totally dominating with a little fire, saying hello to Kenny Lofton, was Beckett.

Back to Boston for game 6 on Saturday.  I will be unavailable between now and then to post, so please keep the comments flowing.  If you haven't registered as a commentor yet, please do so, so I don't have to approve your comments. 

Ok, my fence sitting is done.  On 2 issues anyway.  Coco Crisp needs to sit and so does Julio Lugo.

Coco - He looks lost, almost mentally distant from this game.  There were a few close-ups and he appeared sad, as if he was in shock.  I am not going to pretend to be a master of body language and facial expressions, but if forced to levy a diagnosis, I'd say this guy is shell-shocked.  Weird.  Anyway, get him out and insert Jacoby Ellsbury.  This is a change from earlier as I though the problems with the offense were more related to a general team-wide lack of urgency, but with Coco, there seems to be trouble.

Lugo has been just bad.  His error (it wasn't an error but it should have been) cutting in front of Dustin Pedroia in tonight's game and his overall lack of production (.167 avg in the ALCS) have earned him some pine.  It feels like the 1st half of the season again.  I don't think Alex Cora is a longterm solution, but perhaps he is good for a game 6 start.

Dustin Pedroia bounced back tonight getting on base 3 times.  Fox did point out that he had been hitting the ball hard all series, so perhaps he never lost his stroke after all.

Checking out the boxscore, you'll see the top 4 guys got on base (11 times between them) and it showed.  When the top of the order can stir things up, runs get scored.

Saturday 8:21pm @ Fenway:  Game 6