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August 28, 2007

Tuesday Night Observations

Daisuke Matsuzaka works incredibly slowly.  He pitched into the 7th and took 2 3/4 hours, and that was a fast night for him.  It has been a painful thing to watch all season especially when compared to Tim Wakefield.

Matsuzaka hit ARod and almost hit Robinson Cano (who gave him his best menacing glare).  Prediction:  Roger Clemens does something about it Wednesday night.  Prediction:  Josh Beckett answers the call.

Eric Hinske isn't, never has been and never will be a match for Jaba Chamberlain.

Given the Yankee offense, if they had any consistent pitching, this wouldn't be a contest.

If anyone in the Yankees organization cares, it might be a good idea to not use Chamberlain as much as Scott Proctor was used.  Proctor was probably never destined to be an elite reliever, but he might have made a few million as a pitcher.  Now, I'm not sure he'll be in baseball in 3 years.  I know, he made a major league minimum at worst, but still.  Maybe Joe Torre will cut him a few checks in a few years.

JD Drew might as well come up with one of his 20 game injuries as he isn't helping this Red Sox team at all.  He has been terrible.  A .756 OPS at $14m a year.  He best figure this problem out soon or he will not be a happy man for the next few years (despite his wealth...after all, money doesn't buy one happiness).

Mike Lowell will probably wind up with 115-120 RBI this year.  Not bad for a throw-in.  My guess is he is gone next year as Boston won't want to offer more than 2 years and he'll probably get a 3-4 year deal at $11-$12m per.

Tuesday was the toughest match-up in the series for Boston as Andy Pettitte is a good pitcher having a good year.

With both Manny Ramirez and Bobby Kielty going down with injuries, get used to Eric Hinske for a day or two.  Yikes.

Despite the lead the Red Sox have over the Yankees, there is still a buzz in the air when these 2 teams go head-to-head.

August 27, 2007

Day Off

The Red Sox enjoy a 7.5 game lead heading into Tuesday's 3-game set in the Bronx.  Given the lead, this series isn't quite what most would have hoped.  But from this Red Sox fan, it is nice to have a little breathing room at this time of year, even if it lessens the drama factor of playing the Yankees in New York.

With the September roster expansion approaching (and Pawtucket playing sub-.500 ball), we are likely to see a few call-ups:

Continue reading "Day Off" »

August 18, 2007

Gagne Gags Again

This is not good.  Eric Gagne has been just terrible.  His control is off and his velocity is all over the map.  I'm not sure this deal is working out.  Last night, after a spirited rally to take a 5-4 lead, Gagne came in to close the game and coughed it up.

Now, turning on excuse mode, Gagne's role has been muddy of late.  He was a closer upon getting traded, he came to Boston and has been asked to be a set-up guy and last night he was asked to close again.  Perhaps Gagne is having trouble with his changing job description.

Excuse mode off.

This is a time where a veteran like Mike Timlin needs to sit down with Gagne and tell him to A.)  relax and B.)  tell him he doesn't need to prove anything to anyone.  Only a veteran offer of support like that will help in my opinion.  But just as important is Gagne's willingness to listen.  Gagne is at a fork in the road.  Take a left and he can look back at his Boston experience as one of his worst, most painful jobs ever.  Take a right and he can make the best of his situation and look back at it as a great time.  Granted, his ability to throw strikes and get people out is the main component of that left/right fork in the road choice, but getting his head screwed on straight is the most important thing.  If he is healthy mentally, he can take a right.

Overshadowed by the Gagne debacle was the debut of Clay Buchholz.  He pitched 6 solid innings and proved why people are excited.  I think is is great that he goes back to Pawtucket with a bit more knowledge about what it takes at the major league level and works on his game.

Wily Mo Pena was traded to the Nationals along with cash considerations for a PTBNL.  We learn the name of that player after the playoffs.

Jacoby Ellsbury played in game 2 last night (once Buchholz was sent back down) and it seems Bobby Kielty will be activated for today's game forcing a return to AAA by Ellsbury.

Lastly, Doug Mirabelli was put on the DL with a calf strain and Kevin Cash, Pawtucket's catcher, was summoned.  The transaction wire was busy yesterday.

August 16, 2007

The Future is Now

It's official, Clay Buchholz is going to start game one of Friday's day/night doubleheader.  As I'm sure you've heard by now, Buchholz is considered one of baseball's top pitching prospects and certainly Boston's top prospect.

Buchholz is 8-3 in the minors this year with 164 K's (leading all of the minors) in 117 innings.

AA - Portland:  7-2, 86.2 IP, 55 H, 17 ER, 22 BB, 116 K, 1.17 ERA

AAA - Pawtucket:  1-1, 30.1 IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 8 BB, 48 K, 3.26 ERA

To be fair, Buchholz dominated at AA and has done just fine at AAA, but he will be facing a very good Anaheim Angels team and specifically, will be going against John Lackey.  This is likely to be a one time deal as he will probably be option right back to Pawtucket until further notice.  But it certainly will be fun to watch his debut.

Other news of interest is the fate of Wily Mo Pena.  In order to make room for Buchholz, something has to give.  Because Javier Lopez (he has options) is already in the minors, there are really no clear decisions here.  If the Red Sox have a deal in place for Wily Mo, then he is the one to go when Buchholz gets called up.  Upon Buchholz's return to AAA, we will either see Bobby Kielty or Jacoby Ellsbury (check out his hitting log on his hyperlink, 17 hits in his last 10 games).

So we may be saying goodbye to Wily Mo, who I am convinced will hit 40 HRs with any team willing to give him a starting job, and hello to either a veteran in Kielty or to a top prospect in Ellsbury.

Friday will be a great baseball day for Red Sox fans.

August 14, 2007

It's About Time

The Red Sox are now, get this, 2-41 when trailing entering the 8th inning.  Talk about clutch.  Clutch baby!

With the Red Sox down 1-0 entering the 9th, Mike Lowell tied the game with a solo shot and Coco Crisp delivered Jason Varitek from 2nd a few batters later to pull out the come from behind win.  Their 2nd 8th inning or later come back this year.  Yippee.

This was a good win and hopefully one that will jog the collective memory of this team.  Specifically that they used to be very good (i.e. in April and May).

Jonathan Lester was outstanding pitching 7 innings of 1 run ball.  It's just one start, but it had to give him a confidence boost.

While this was a good win, the Red Sox did only score 2 runs.  J.D. Drew has been a non-factor of late...er...all season and with Manny and Ortiz not producing like years past, the Red Sox are very lucky the pitching has been so good.  If the Red Sox had last year's pitching staff, this would probably be a disaster season.  I'm now convinced the Red Sox should have given up Wily Mo Pena and either Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson to get Jermaine Dye.  Since the trading deadline, Dye has gone: .351/.442/.838 (1.280 OPS) with 5 HR's, 11 runs and 10 RBI.  Imagine if the Red Sox had plugged Dye into J.D. Drew's spot.  Drew since the deadline:  .394/.474/.545 (1.019 OPS).  Not bad you say?  Check out his production, 5 runs, 0 HRs and 4 RBI.

There's no point in complaining as the waiver trade deadline isn't likely to help the Red Sox much and once Pena is dealt and Bobby Kielty promoted, this team won't be much different.  Let's hope the offense, specifically Drew, Ortiz and Manny, only our 3-4-5 hitters, figure out their respective issues.

More Tampa Bay tomorrow and then an off-day Thursday.

August 13, 2007

Say Hey Clay?

With the Red Sox playing a doubleheader Friday, there is some speculation that Terry Francona will not pitch Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling on the same day because it would force one of them to pitch next week on only 3 days rest.  With that in mind, we might see Clay Buchholz get the call.

I have mixed feelings on this one.  Buchholz has impressed at every level he has played, but with only 30.1 IP at AAA, is it too soon to call him up?  I think so.  My preference would be to have him finish the year starting at AAA and then get a late season call-up to watch the big league club, not pitch for them.  That'll give him some food for thought in the off-season and the Red Sox can give him a legitimate change to make the rotation in 2008.  Buchholz has been good at AAA, but not dominating like he was at A and AA.  He has some growing left to do and I like to the the Red Sox are going to let him do that in Pawtucket.

On another note, Peter pointed out to me that the Red Sox (and all MLB teams) have until Tuesday night to sign their draft picks or else the un-signed picks do back into next year's draft.  They have not reached terms with 5 of their first 10 picks.

Peter Gammons reports that the commissioner's office is putting pressure on teams to sign their picks at their "pre-set" slot price.  Problem is, the CBA has no such language and any slot a player fits into would be purely a number the commissioner's office came up with themselves.  As Gammons points out, the Yankees most likely have deals in place about the slot for most of their top picks.  If the Yankees sign all of their guys, shouldn't Boston?  Come on now, we all want what's best for baseball, but some of us want what's best for Boston.

Sign those picks!

August 12, 2007

Where's the Spark?

I'm not sure I can put my finger on when it happened but the Red Sox have completely lost their fire.  There just don't seem to be capable of coming back late in games.  The only recent exception was Friday night when the Sox plated 5 in the 8th only to give up 4 in the bottom of the 8th and 1 in the 9th to lose it.

Where is David Ortiz?  What gives?  Where is Manny Ramirez when it counts?  I'm not claiming originality with this idea as I think the Boston Globe recently made reference to the success of Ortiz and Ramirez when it is "late and close" in a game.  Late and close is when the game is in the 7th inning or later and your team is ahead by one, tied or the winning run is on deck, at the plate or on base.

2007:

Ortiz: .269/.367/.385.  How HRs?  0.  None.  Zip.

Manny:  .157/.283/.294 with 2 HRs.

2006:

Ortiz:  .314/.443/.756 with 11 HRs.

Manny:  .262/.459/.525 with 4 HRs.

Career:

Ortiz:  .295/.386/.595 with 40 HRs in 665 plate appearances.

Manny:  .274/.409/.486 with 48 HRs in 935 plate appearances.

Now Manny has never performed up to his career averages in "Late and Close," but Ortiz has.  So what's up with these guys?  Ortiz has been a total disaster when he is needed most.  His 2006 was the essence of perfection when it counted most, but 2007 has been the polar opposite.

We can't put the blame entirely on Ortiz.  Scoring runs early in the game is important too.  The worst part about the Red Sox is watching them get runners on only to seem the stranded at a rate I cannot remember.  It makes me think about 2004 when the Red Sox were scuffling along and in late July, the infamous ARod vs. Varitek brawl took place.  That lit a fire under their collective arse.  One that carried them to the World Series.

That leaves us with the question of what it will take to shake them out of this coma.  A brawl, a trade (not much hope of that), a major benching action?  Your guess is as good as mine.  If the clubhouse chemistry is as good as we've heard, these guys should be able to figure it out.  Terry Francona and Theo Epstein better know what they have in these guys or else they might lounge there way out of the AL East lead.

August 10, 2007

ROI - Negative Returns

The Red Sox return on investment with Eric Gagne has been negative...like John Henry's hedge funds.  Boston gave up 3 players and paid a hefty bonus to Gagne (and his agent Scott Boras) thinking he'd be a shutdown pitcher.  Here is his Red Sox game log thus far:

Aug 2 - 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Aug 4 - 1.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Aug 8 - 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Aug 10 - .1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Gagne imploded Friday night ruining what had been a very impressive late game rally.  Gagne certainly doesn't throw as hard as he used to and his K's per 9 are quite a bit lower than in his prime (i.e. before arm problems).  With all of this in mind, Gagne probably has struggled most with the idea of not being a closer anymore.  They say closers can struggle with non-save situations and Gagne has been placed in 4 straight non-save situations since the Red Sox acquired him.

Gagne absolutely has to figure out how to excel in his 8th inning role or else this trade will end up being a stinker.  I assume Gagne will figure things out, but it was disappointing to see him blow the lead Friday.  On a more positive note, don't forget the Red Sox will most likely receive 2 first round picks when Gagne signs a long-term deal elsewhere in the off-season as there is not chance he'll stick around being a closer and all.

August 09, 2007

Bullpen Assist

After losing the first two in Anaheim, the Red Sox bounced back thanks to a solid offense and a bullpen that all but closed the door.  That's how it's supposed to work, right?  You trade for Eric Gagne and with the help of Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon, they keep Anaheim off the scoresheet for 3.1 innings (Mike Timlin was effective too making it 4.2 IP).

Boston has a much needed day off today, something that will help both players and fans alike as these 10pm starts are brutal.  They start a weekend series in Baltimore on Friday.

One major concern has been the performance of Jon Lester.  Lester has allowed 4, 4 and 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts.  His ERA stands at 6.43 and his whip at 1.71.  Lester had a bad tendency last year to miss the strike zone thus raising his pitch count prematurely and leading to bad results.  He eventually picked himself up and figure things out.  After pitching a solid 2007 debut, Lester has gone back to his early 2006 struggles.  Boston has a tough call on this one as if Lester doesn't figure it out, who do they turn to?  Julian Tavarez?  David Pauley?  Clay Buchholz?

Lester probably deserves 2-3 more starts to figure things out.

Some notes on the farm:  Justin Masterson won AA player of the month in Portland.  In 6 starts for Portland he has gone 4-0 with 45 K's in 39 IP yielding a 1.38 ERA and a 0.72 whip.  Not bad.  Masterson struggled at High-A ball in Lancaster CA, but from what I can tell, that league is a hitters haven and both offense and pitching stats can be deceiving.

Clay Buchholz has also performed nicely at AAA Pawtucket.  39 K's in 25.1 IP with a 3.20 ERA.  He is 0-1 in 5 starts.  His 5 IP per game are the reason he is not getting decisions.  He is probably being held to 5 per start so they can save him for use later in the year (perhaps in Boston) what with the Red Sox holding all of their pitchers to strict innings pitched limits.

As for the prospects of any power at AAA, don't hold your breath.  There seems to be a shortage of offensive help at Pawtucket.  With their season 80%, the leading home run hitter at Pawtucket is Jeff Bailey.  But he only has a .429 SLG%.  At AA Portland, things aren't any better, in fact they are worse.  At High-A Lancaster, there is plenty of power where 1b Aaron Bates has 24 HR's and OF Bubba Bell has 22 HRs, but most of that is probably a function of where they play.

A good indication that Lancaster (and not so much the California League) is a hitters haven, the Lancaster Jethawks, the Red Sox affiliate, have the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th best hitters in the league (measured by batting average).  Wow.  I don't think it is a good idea for Boston to send any pitchers of importance to Lancaster as it might permanently kill their confidence.

August 08, 2007

So Long Wily Mo?

Well, after saying I didn't get why the Red Sox considered Bobby Kielty an upgrade over Wily Mo Pena, Kielty was signed to a minor league deal and Wily Mo cleared waivers.  What does this mean?  It means Wily Mo can now be traded anytime this month as part of the waiver trade deadline.

I also heard, with nothing to back this up, that Kielty has a clause in his contract that he can become a free agent if the Red Sox don't call him up after 7 days in the minors.  That to me sums it up.  Pena is a goner and Kielty is going to be a Red Sox in about a week.

It would have been nice if the Red Sox could have given Wily Mo 500 plate appearances in any given year just to see what he could do.  I think where ever he goes, if he gets playing time, he will be a very production hitter (average obp, but high slugging).

Of course the official transaction hasn't taken place and if the Red Sox cannot find suitable return value for Pena, they might just hang on to him.  If they do move Pena, it will likely be for a player to be named later.  A waiver trade that does not included a major leaguer in return has to be for the infamous PTBNL because minor leaguers cannot clear waivers as a rule (I think The Javy Lopez for Adam Stern trade was like that last year).

Anyway, as I write this, the Red Sox are losing 4-7 in Anaheim while the Yankees have already won.  There was a bit of a dust-up in the Yankees/Toronto game that might just fuel the Yankees already burning fire too.  That makes it a 5.5 game lead...