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The Red Sox will hold a press conference today to announce the signing of Nomar Garciaparra to a minor league deal, at which point Garciaparra will announce his retirement according to Boston.com.

Garciaparra's career has officially come full circle.  What started out as a magical, hall of fame type career, broke down amid rumors and constant injury.  Garciaparra had some amazing seasons, but he lacked any kind of durability and fell way short of any Hall of Fame bid.

As a Red Sox fan, it was so satisfying to see the them draft, groom and succeed with Nomar.  His rookie season (first full season) left me thinking he could do anything.  He followed up 1997 with 3 ridiculous seasons only to have injury strike.  He came back in 2002 and 2003 with 2 good seasons, but never approached his 1997 - 2000 levels.

Prior to the 2004 season, the Red Sox offered Nomar a 4 year, $60mm deal which he turned down.  A bad decision on his part as Nomar made a total of $32,283,394.00 the following 4 seasons.  And of course he was traded in the summer of 2004 amidst much animosity.

Garciaparra played his best baseball in Boston and I think this is why he is "coming home."  I think it is a fitting end to his career and I believe this will be the final step in winning back the fans, many of whom feel he let the Red Sox down in 2004.  Here was my take when the 2004 trade went down:  July 2004.

Welcome back Nomar.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

It seems like both the Red Sox and Yankees are trying to settle on a 5th starter.  I'll let Peter handle the Yankees debate.  As for the Red Sox, it comes down to Tim Wakefield or Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Those of us who saw Wakefield towards the end of the 2009 season not only are shocked that he might win the 5th spot, but also that he is even still playing baseball.  Some of the most comedic, yet sad images of Wakefield last season showed a pot-bellied, middle-aged man trying to cover first base, only to have his right leg fail him.  When I say fail, it looked like he was running with his leg asleep.

No matter, off-season back surgery apparently has cured his pinched nerve issue and he is making a strong showing in camp, even if he still has the pot-belly.

Matsuzaka on the other hand has been sidelined with a back strain.  It seems likely that unless he can get in a game soon, he'll start the season on the DL or in extended spring training.

It's a shame to have Matsuzaka pitching out of the pen as his stuff can be electric, but he doesn't have a clean health record and I'm sure the Red Sox would love to keep his innings pitched total at 160 or so this year.  This is the team that routinely shuts down pitchers for 2 weeks, more to give them a rest than any health related reason.

The 5th spot in really meaningless early on in the season, so I'm not worried about this issue and the likelihood of keeping 5 starters healthy throughout the season is slim, so both Wakefield and Matsuzaka will get their fair share of starts.  I like Wakefield in the rotation as his style is such a contrast to the other starters.  While I can't quantify the impact his knuckleball has on opposing teams as far as how the opposition handles the conventional starter the next day, it does make sense.

Plus, Wakefield is a far more enjoyable starter to watch as he is quick between pitches while Matsuzaka is painfully slow.  A non-baseball related argument to be sure, but important to the fan.

All of this discussion bodes well for Clay Buchholz as he has apparently been penciled in the 4th spot.  Buchholz strong showing in September and his upside make him a logical choice.

With a rotation of: Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz and Wakefield and improved team defense, the Red Sox should be good at preventing runs this year but it remains to be seen if they can score enough runs.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox truck has arrived in Fort Myers and the players are finding their way to the clubhouse one by one.  Spring Training hasn't formally begun yet, but it is starting to feel like baseball season.

With most Red Sox fans believing this year's edition needs to get a big bat for the line-up, there aren't too many worries surrounding their pitching and defense.

The storylines for this Spring Training will be Mike Lowell's health and role on the team, whether or not Tim Wakefield begins the year in the starting rotation and what to do with Victor Martinez, this being his last year under contract.

I do not expect the Red Sox to go nuts with Martinez.  He is older than you think (31) and is a catcher.  Catchers don't gracefully move into their 30s.  They tend to breakdown and lose effectiveness.  There are obvious exceptions to that, but for the most part, a catcher over 30 is a risk.  With Martinez expected to shoulder more of the catching load this year, I'm think he might have another season of 2 left of high performance.

I can see Boston offering a 2-year deal with a team option, but nothing more than that.  If they keep that stance, and Martinez has a good season, don't expect him around in 2011.

Lowell and Wakefield both have to prove they are healthy.  If Clay Buchholz does well in camp, I just don't see how Wakefield has a starting spot.  But a 5-man rotation has loads of variables and I'm sure a spot will open up for Wakefield at some point in the first 2 months.

As for Lowell, he doesn't have a regular place to play.  If he can play some first base, then he can expect to get at bats at 3rd, 1st and DH totaling 300 PAs or so this year, but not much more.

I really don't expect any drama from the group of players in camp, so we'll get to focus on possible trade talk, minor leaguers and projections for the 2010 squad.  Camp opens up on Thursday with pitchers and catchers.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox acquired Bill Hall from the Mariners yesterday for Casey Kotchman.  They also received a player to be named later and cash.  Prospect Insider speculates it might be Hassiel Jimenez.

Hall is set to earn $8.4mm this year, but the cash in the deal will make the Red Sox hit only around $1.375mm or so.  I haven't found details on this yet, but Cot's Baseball Contracts suggest that amount.

Hall hit 35 home runs one year, but that was 2006 and since then, he hasn't done anything offensively.  2007 - 740 OPS (not bad), 2008 - .689, 2009 - .596 (ughh).

Hall will come in handy as a super utility player with his ability to play any outfield spot and any infield spot except first.  A quick look suggests he's a decent all around fielder, which is really where his only value lies.

Kotchman found himself without a position, especially with Mike Lowell still on the team.  Given Lowell's recent surgery, it is unlikely the Red Sox will be able to move him prior to spring training, so they'll let him get healthy and showcase him in pre-season and early regular season.

I think there is a strong chance he stays with the team well into the 2010 season given his decent righty bat and the risk that David Ortiz doesn't return to form.  He is a luxury to be sure at $12mm, but if he stayed, it wouldn't be the worst thing for the team, although he might not enjoy it that much.

Using February 17th as a reporting date, we are about 41 days until spring training!

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

News today that Terry Francona will have Mike Cameron start in CF and Jacoby Ellsbury in LF.  With that and yesterday's Adrian Beltre news, the Red Sox line-up looks like this:

c - Victor Martinez (.912 OPS)

1b - Kevin Youkilis (.961)

2b - Dustin Pedrois (.819)

3b - Adrian Beltre (.683)

ss - Marco Scutaro (.789)

lf - Jacoby Ellsbury (.770)

cf - Mike Cameron (.795)

rf - J.D. Drew (.914)

dh - David Ortiz (.794)

In other news, www.prospectinsider.com is reporting the Red Sox are close to trading Casey Kotchman to the Seattle Mariners.

This line-up isn't as good as last year's edition and can only hope to score as many runs as 2009.  That said, if Ortiz can hit like he did the last 4 months last year, Beltre benefits from hitting at Fenway vs. Safeco and a full season of Martinez instead of Varitek might keep things closer than one might think, but a many things have to fall correctly for that to be the case.

I still think this team needs a boffo bat, but with the salary committed thus far, I'm not sure we're going to see in in 2010 and expect hitting help will arrive in 2011.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 04:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Catchy, isn't it?  No?  You're right, it'll never take off, Adrian Beltre doesn't hit home runs.

File this as "asleep at the wheel," but I just learned that the Red Sox and Adrian Beltre agreed to a deal.  According to Peter Gammons, the deal is for 1 year at $9mm with a player option in 2011 for $5mm.  Wow, rumor had it Beltre was looking for a multi year, $13mm or so per year, or make that Scott Boras was looking for...

Analysis, this deal greatly improves the Red Sox defense and allows Kevin Youkilis to stay at first base. Casey Kotchman has once again been relegated to the bench.  Beltre didn't hit at all in 2009 hence the one-year deal.  He must think he will do very well in 2010.  Or, maybe he is finished and this, and the 2011 option are just gravy on an already lucrative career.  My hope is for the former, but the cynic in me thinks its the latter.

His offense has only been really good in one season.  In 2004 he had a 1.017 OPS vs. his career OPS of .779. Hmmm, how did that happen?  Regardless of how that happened, he parlayed that into a mega deal with Seattle. Seattle plays in a hitter non-friendly park and one could argue Beltre's numbers didn't look good there because no one does well there...except Ichiro.

So the Red Sox have signed a defensive wiz and a questionable offensive talent, but have limited their risk to 2 years and $14mm.  Not terrible.  This just puts an exclamation point next to their off-season plans of reducing runs allowed.  It'll be interesting to see the ERAs of the pitching staff as you have to consider the following:

Player: UZR 2009/2009 rank at position in Majors:

3rd - Beltre: 21.00/1st vs. Lowell: -14.4/last, if included in qualifying list

cf - Cameron: 10.3/4th vs. Ellsbury -18.3/4th worst (I'm not sure what to make of Ellsbury's rating, these numbers and what I see with my eyes tell 2 different stories.  I'm sure Ellsbury wasn't perfect, but 4th worst?  Tough for me to understand).

ss - Scutaro: 1.0/14th vs. Red Sox SS team total in 2009 of 3.1/12th in baseball (Alex Gonzalez was a 10.5)

I'd do an Ellsbury vs. Bay report in left, but Ellsbury didn't play an inning there in 2009, so I'll not do so.

No matter, it looks like this signing is the biggest net improvement defensively thus far and the Cameron signing is 2nd.  The Scutaro signing, is actually a net loss defensively, but I still prefer him there vs. Alex Gonzalez given the offensive upside.

Other news out suggests the Red Sox and Mets are talking about a Mike Lowell for Luis Castillo deal.  Basically a swap of contracts I would suspect.  Castillo is due $6mm in both 2010 and 2011.  Lowell really has no role here in 2010 and the Red Sox would be best shipping him sooner than later.  Lowell has been a good soldier, but his time has passed.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

WFAN, Jon Heyman and others are reporting that Jason Bay has an agreement with the Mets.  4-years, $66mm.  It is easy to question what Bay and his agent were thinking, but they clearly overplayed their hand and now Bay is in a large baseball park when he could have returned to Fenway for a reported 4-years, $60mm.

Hind sight is 20x20, I mean he couldn't have known he'd be down to 1 suitor, but he must be kicking himself.

Regardless of how he is feeling, Bay was one of two legit sluggers on the market and now his signing (presumed) leaves only Matt Holliday available, just the way Scott Boras wanted it all along.

What this also does, is leaves some financial flexibility for moves later in the season for the Red Sox.  But it also means the Red Sox offense is a step below where it was in 2009.  Something they will have to address at some point in 2010.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 03:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox have already had an active off-season leading most to believe they are done shopping.  But now WEEI's Rob Bradford is reporting that the Red Sox are having internal discussions as to whether or not they can make another offer to Bay, thus boosting their line-up and saving Bay from certain embarassment and torture should he become a New York Met.

Bradford suggests that an offer would be in line with their previous 4-year, $60mm deal they offered earlier in 2009 and again at the outset of free agency.

My guess here, assuming these reports are true, is that Red Sox management feels Bay would be crazy to not accept a 4/60 offer...or even a 4/56 offer for that matter.  They'll let him save face and take the 4/60 and be done with it.  It is rumored that Bay has only 1 suitor right now in the Mets and really doesn't want to play there.  Bay and his agent have overplayed their hand and would do anything short of beg for another crack at negotiations with the Red Sox.

Now if this does happen, there will be an outfield logjam what with newly signed Mike Cameron on-board.  In addition, it turns out Mike Lowell is still on the Red Sox too.  I'm not sure how this will play out, but if Lowell still ends up getting dealt (his surgery will have him ready by spring training and he could still be dealt to Texas or another team at that point), then Bay could be valuable in case David Ortiz doesn't pan out in 2010.  In addition, he can hold a semi platoon with Ellsbury (with Cameron moving to CF), Ortiz and Drew (with Bay playing left and Cameron moving to RF).

Between injuries to Drew, tough match-ups to Ellsbury, Ortiz and Drew and regular days off for all of to the outfield and Ortiz, he will easily find enough at bats.  In fact, it is silly to think Bay would have to struggle for at bats, in fact it will be Cameron, Ellsbury and Ortiz that will struggle to get at bats in favor of Bay.

I'm getting ahead of myself here, but I love the idea of this as Bay would significantly upgrade the offense and seeing as we know he can play in Boston, likes it here, and seeing as Bay doesn't want to play in New York, it all makes sense.

Lastly, with Lackey and Bay on board, Ellsbury and/or Buchholz, as we've mentioned, become even more available for a mid-season run at an offensive upgrade at 1st or 3rd, that is unless you like the idea of 600 PAs from Casey Kotchman this year.  Let's watch this play out.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

In very quick fashion, the Red Sox have become a different team, especially when it comes to team defense and pitching.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 02:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Ken Rosenthal is again at it along with ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, both are reporting that the Red Sox are looking to sign Mike Cameron to be their left fielder. If true, we can say goodbye to Jason Bay (and Matt Holliday for that matter).

The Red Sox aren't kidding when they say they want to become better defensively. Cameron played CF last year, and has a grand total of 9.2 IP in left in his career, but Boston must be thinking the transition will be easy. The other thought might be to move Jacoby Ellsbury to LF as Cameron was a far better defensive option in CF than was Ellsbury in 2009 according to UZR/150.

No word on the dollars involved, but the reports suggest it will be a 2-year deal.  Cameron hit .250/.342/.452/.795 in 2009 almost exactly in line with his career averages.  He has decent pop, but has always been known for his defense with 3 gold gloves under his belt.  He'll be 37, so that might be the main reason they move him to LF.

Cameron hits lefties better than he does righties (.859 OPS vs. .765).  Conversely, Jeremy Hermida hits righties better than he does lefties (.792 OPS vs. .697), so we might be seeing a platoon here.  Hermida's defense isn't great however, so maybe LF is Cameron's job full-time with Hermida the 4th OF.

While I wish we were talking about Jason Bay right now, I don't mind this move.  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wrote an interesting piece the other day stressing that wins and losses are all about run differential and that it doesn't matter how you created run differential.  It is common sense, but it is also easy for that basic principle to get lost in the shuffle.  You can either score more runs, or allowed fewer runs (or both heaven forbid).  The Red Sox have clearly chosed the latter.

Now, I still expect a move for a hitter as Clay Buchholz just became far more available than he was yesterday.  The obvious candidate I'd like to see would be Adrian Gonzalez with Kevin Youkilis moving to 3b.  If they can pull that off, I think we'd be looking at keeping the runs scored about the same as 2009 but improving the runs allowed.

So Lackey and Cameron all in one day.  Lackey will cost them a draft pick but Cameron was not offered arbitration, so no draft picks are due.

The AP is now reporting that the Red Sox have reached tentative deals for Lackey and Cameron, both pending physicals.  Ken Rosenthal is reporting it is in the vicinity of 2-years, $15.5mm for Cameron.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (0)