Think About It
Let's pretend you are the richest person at a blind envelope auction. Everyone knows you are the richest, but nobody knows who is bidding or the amount that they bid. As the richest person do you...
A- Loudly tell everyone of your interest in a particular item hoping that it scares away potential bidders?
or
B- Pretend to have little to no interest in a particular item hoping that you can use your financial might by posting a big bid stealthily?
The Yankees have done at least the first part of B with Yu Darvish and now we will await to see if they did actually make a bid. I have no idea if they did or didn't, but I also don't think you should read very much into their statements that they weren't interested. To me, that was just smart poker. We know the Yankees have gobs of money and even if it requires a Matsuzaka-like posting fee, that isn't a big deal to them. And Matsuzaka's performance will probably help the team that wins the posting negotiate a contract with Darvish. After all, Dice-K was supposed to be a dominant force and apart from 2008, he has been mediocre at best. He signed for six years at $52 million. If you don't think the Yankees would be willing to add that amount to their payroll, I have a bridge to sell you here in Brooklyn.
Now, the bigger question is if Darvish is worth bidding on? That's a tough one to answer. Sure, he is supposedly better than Dice-K, but we seem to hear that each time a Japanese pitcher is posted. I don't think anyone knows how to answer that question, but don't just assume the Yankees passed. We will find out soon.
UPDATE 7:50pm Two tweets to pay attention to. First, Buster Olney says the Yankees did bid. Second, Danny Knobler reports that the Fighters were excited by the amount of the winning bid. We still don't know the winning bidder, but it is morning in Japan, so we might hear something later tonight. I will update accordingly.
UPDATE 8:02pm Jon Heyman tweets that the word is the Yankees entered only a "modest" bid for Darvish. To be honest, I don't know if I should be happy or sad about that.
UPDATE 10:50pm Jon Heyman tweets a rumor that one bid was north of $50 millon.
Comments
Peter - please count me among the "happy" fans about the Yankees only making a "modest" bid for Darvish.
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 14, 2011 10:03 PM
|
Mitchell-
Why are you happy? Not that I disagree with that sentiment, but I really just don't know what to think about Darvish at this point.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 14, 2011 10:48 PM
|
Peter,
Warning: odd analogies coming.
Budgets are properly zero sum, therefore it is important that clubs manage their budgets well. Paying top dollar in a bidding process just for the opportunity to pay a top dollar salary for a player that is completely unproven in the bigs is unwise. cf Dice K, cf Iggy. If done too often, it results in clubs having to raise prices past a breaking point - or at least past a point where it becomes a challenge to attend more than a few games a year without a corporate benefactor flipping you free seats - or having to buy $9.00 hot dogs.
It's like buying an expensive IPO for a startup company that has yet to see operating profits. Thanks but been there, done that in the dotcom bubble. There were 50 failures for every success.
I'd rather see us try (quite) a few promising AAA arms instead of paying $100MM for one kid who dominates in a league that has been described as comparable to AAA or (humor intended) AAAA ball. Show me a guy with a MLB track record and I'll open the checkbook and see what's available - but, failing to see the track record, I'd rather we grow our own.
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 15, 2011 08:27 AM
|
Mitchell
I can't argue with any of that, but I keep reading things like "one of the top-5 pitchers on the planet" and I do wonder exactly what Mr. Darvish will become. Part of me wants to see him in pinstripes and part of me shudders at the thought.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 15, 2011 10:59 AM
|
Yeah, Peter, I too am seeing things like one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet, but I remember the IPO bankers telling me that their offering had unlimited upside yak, yak,yak. I too would love to see him in pinstripes - but with a modest posting fee and a contract with a lot of club options and performance milestones - both of which conditions are counter to the posting process and/or an agent's yearly payout. Capitalism rocks - but it rocks, sometimes, counter to your wishes. :-)
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 15, 2011 11:18 AM
|
its been reported that the posting bid that won the chance is higher than Dice-K's was which was $50-$51m. Geesh, hope it was a small market team :)
Posted by: blmeanie![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 18, 2011 03:00 PM
|
I'm reading Rangers or Blue Jays. I am amazed that this is money that simply buys the rights to negotiate with the guy.
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 18, 2011 05:22 PM
|
It would be interesting if it was Toronto. Assuming he is as good as people say he is, the AL East would become even harder.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 18, 2011 11:16 PM
|
If the Jays land this guy, were I the owner of the Os, I'd petition the league to grant me either a 15 game handicap or the rights to move the ballclub. :-)
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
|
December 19, 2011 10:29 AM
|