Make The Deal
Over on his GM blog (subscription required) Jim Bowden has five trades for Gio Gonzalez. For the Yankees he has Betances, Phelps and Romine going over to Oakland. I would make that deal in a second.
There are three things you have to worry about with Gonzalez. The first is his walk totals. Now many of the reports I have seen say that he walks a lot of guys because he is afraid to give in and fall behind with the A's anemic offense. Believe that at your own peril.
The second thing to worry about is his home and road splits. Oakland is a pitcher's park and not surprisingly, Gonzalez's ERA is almost a run better there than on the road. He gives up more flyballs than groundballs, so pitching in smaller parks could hurt him. Being a lefty, you would think he could neutralize left-handed batters, but they have actually hit him harder than righties in his career.
Finally, his career ERA vs. Boston is almost a six and against the Yankees it is over 7. He is clearly struggling when facing the best lineups in the league.
So with those three concerns, why would I make this trade? For two reasons. First and foremost, he is a young lefthander with very good stuff. Put him on the Yankees and he doesn't have to be an ace, he just needs to pitch effectively. Even with the concerns I outlined above, I think he would do that.
Second, think about the pieces the Yankees would give up in this deal. They still have Montero and they still have Banuelos. Sure losing Romine hurts, but I don't know if he will hit enough in the bigs and don't forget that Gary Sanchez is still in the system. If the Yankees lock down Martin for a couple of years, they won't need Romine. I think Phelps could develop into a competent back of the rotation guy, I just don't see the Yankees giving him the chance. The have Noesi and Warren at that same level, so will Phelps even get a chance? And Betances certainly could develop into a stud pitcher, but you have to give to get and of the trio of Betances, Banuelos and Montero, he is the one I am more comfortable giving up.
Comments
Peter - being the stubborn person that I am, I would suggest that a better deal would be Romine, Phelps, Burnett and $16.5MM for Gio. Yep, I am sure I am delusional, nothing new there, but I would *really* like to see what Betances can do in pinstripes.
Posted by: Mitchell
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December 21, 2011 10:09 PM
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Mitchell
I love your deal, but I imagine Billy Beane would be fired if he did it.
Posted by: Peter
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December 21, 2011 10:28 PM
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Not sure they would take Burnett if the Yankees provided 100% of the money owed :)
Posted by: blmeanie
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December 22, 2011 07:18 AM
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Okay, so we can go as high as $20MM to go with AJ, but, hey, that's as high as we can go. Waddaya say? LOL.
Posted by: Mitchell
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December 22, 2011 07:26 AM
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I could see the A's asking for the Yankees to ship Burnett to Texas or LA and the A's pick up some of the tab...only way it benefits the A's to have him as part of a deal.
Posted by: blmeanie
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December 22, 2011 07:55 AM
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I think BL might have found the best way to execute your trade Mitchell.
Posted by: Peter
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December 22, 2011 11:49 AM
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LOL. I can just see the interactions beween AJ and Nolan Ryan. :-)
Posted by: Mitchell
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December 22, 2011 04:44 PM
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Looks like the most probable destinations for Gio are either the Nats or the Red Sox. I take comfort in his ERA against the Yankees.
Posted by: Mitchell
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December 22, 2011 04:53 PM
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Keith Law is reporting that he is headed to Washington. That's turning into a pretty nice ballclub.
Posted by: Peter
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December 22, 2011 05:06 PM
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Nats were willing to let some nice young talent go for Gio. And yep, they ARE starting to look like a real team. Should be interesting in the NL East, very. Mets will be the bottom team this year.
I'm a believer now: Cashman is truly going to manage to a budget.
Posted by: Mitchell
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December 22, 2011 10:54 PM
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