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Didn't See That Coming

The "Silent Assassin" strikes again. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees have won the posting bid for Japanese shortstop, Hiroyuki Nakajima. Yes, that's right, he's a shortstop.

This is a fascinating move for the organization to make. Nakajima is 29 and has hit .302 in his career. You can read a more detailed scouting report here, but the real question is what does this mean for the Yankees going forward?

I don't think Nakajima is going to supplant Derek Jeter anytime soon, but his presence on the roster would allow the Yankees to rest Jeter and A-Rod more regularly in 2012. And, if he proves he can handle the majors, then yes, you do have Jeter's replacement, thought that is a much, much bigger kettle of fish.

All of this requires the Yankees to actually sign him. Nakajima has been a starter his whole career, will he be willing to accept a bench role in the U.S.? Will he expect to get a big payday? If so, I don't think the Yankees will sign him. But for now, they have made a very interesting move.

Comments

Are there general trends as to how to translate that .302 average to MLB?

By winning the posting bid, the Yankees paid money to the Japanese team, right?

Bl

Yes, they paid the Japanese team $2 million.

I haven't found a reliable translation for hitting stats. For rough comparison, Hideki Matsui was a career .304 hitter in Japan vs .285 here. Suzuki was a .353 hitter there and .326 here, so it looks like .302 might translate to .280 something.

.280 would be a decent upgrade over Nunez. His glove and arm might also offer a decent upgrade over Nunez.

The "pitch" would be to the the heir apparent to a 38 year old Jeter. I would load his contract with an opt-out or mutual options to make it so that the kid can leave (or can be let go) with a check being written.

Might also mean that we no longer need to pursue Chavez - and all his brittleness.

Mitchell

Yup and for $2 million, it is worth a shot.

was there a fee to negotiate with Suzuki and Matsui?

$2m seems like the market right-sized after Dice-K, even admitting that Boston paid $10m or so more than any other team was going to bid (by memory).

Bl

For Suzuki yes, Matsui no. Suzuki went for $13 million.

comment on espn's flowing commentary and bobbleheads:

JackCurryYES:
Someone who has seen Nakajima play said he's a poor defensive player. Doesn't sound as if he could supplant Nunez in utility role.

Saw that, but it contrasts with the scouting report I linked to in the post. Not sure what to believe until I actually see him, but saying he is a worse defender than Nunez is not a good sign.

who is Jack Curry?

For years he was a writer for the New York Times, but he took a buyout a couple of years ago and now works exclusively for the Yankees TV network.

I'm a bit skeptical about this given my observation of the Twins' Japanese shortstop Nishioka. This guy was a gold glove and a batting champion in Japan. But he proved to have a Double A arm and hit in the low .200s with no power.

Now, Matsui and Ichiro are truly great players, so there's no question that Japanese players can succeed over here. But you have to be very cautious. Some of those guys just can't make the transition.

Good point Corey, there are so many factors that go into it that it is impossible to predict until you can see the player. They have a lot of turf fields in Japan, which helps groundball hitters. The language difference, being 1,000's of miles from home. Some can handle it, some can't.

But, this only cost the Yankees $2 million and if they can sign him to a reasonable deal, I am all for it.

what leverage do the Yankees have? By "winning" with the $2m bid if they don't come to terms can he go to other MLB teams or wait a year?

If the Yankees have leverage they could really load up an incentive based contract that is sweet if he hits certain levels etc.

BL

If he doesn't agree to a contract, the Yankees don't pay the posting fee and he has to play in Japan next season. He could then be posted again next year.

so they have all the leverage, interesting. I'd go with a great contract offer that is incentive based. He can make the money if he performs to a level satisfactory to the Yankees. Seems like a no-brainer actually.

Sounds like a good plan to me. I imagine it will come down to just how badly he wants to play in the U.S..

Peter, as you wrote, Nakajima has been a starter his whole career -- would he be willing to accept a bench role in the U.S.?

It's hard for me to see why he would.


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