How Did We Get Here?
You could make almost any prediction about AJ Burnett's start tonight and I would agree it could happen. Two-hitter? Yup, could happen. Ten runs allowed in the first? Yup, could happen. The fact is we don't know. All we know is Joe Girardi better have the bullpen warming up in the first and go from there.
The bigger picture question is how did the Yankees end up starting AJ in the biggest game of the year (so far)? Part of it is bad luck- ie rain on Friday. Part of it is poor planning- they did let AJ make 32 starts this year. Part of it is a lack of faith in some of the younger guys- Phelps and Warren, part of it is the wheels coming off for one of the older guys- Colon.
There are a lot of reasons for why we are here and a pretty clear path to avoid it in the future. The Yankees need to stop trying to import a pitching staff and start trying to grow one. For every CC Sabathia or David Cone we have seen a Carl Pavano or Jose Contreras. Sure, free agent signings are not going to stop in the Bronx, but they need to get closer to a model where they use them to supplement the team and not create it. That is the foundation you can build a dynasty on. Let's face it, if AJ made the same amount of money Kei Igawa did, he would have pitched in Scranton this year. The only reason he didn't is because the Yankees still owe him more than $30 million.
Teams around the league are getting better and better at developing and keeping young pitchers. The Rays will add Matt Moore to an already impressive rotation next year. The Mariners locked up Felix Hernandez and the Angels took Weaver off the market. The choices on the starters market are going to become worse and worse while the lack of inventory will only drive prices up. The Yankees can outbid anyone, but at what point does it become self-defeating?
The Yankees have done a great job of flooding the upper levels of their system with arms. Now they need to start using them. Ivan Nova went from afterthought to Game 2 starter. Next year, he is obviously a big part of the rotation. Guys like Phelps, Noesi and Warren need to get a look, not to mention Betances and Banuelos. Before the Yankees spend another dime on free agent starting pitchers, they need to think about all the arms they have in the system. Some of them will work out, some won't. But chasing the increasingly smaller fish in an even smaller pond is a path to defeat.
More faith in a guy like Noesi during the season may have allowed him to be an alternative at the end of it. We will never know if 2011 would have turned out differently and as of right now the Yankees are still alive. But win or lose tonight, they should take a long look this offseason at what they have done in the past and vow to change it in the future. Just because they have the money to spend doesn't mean they need to spend it.
Comments
THAT was AJ Burnett! What was I worried about?
Posted by: tim | October 4, 2011 11:42 PM |
Tim
Your last two comments have really cracked me up!
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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October 4, 2011 11:57 PM
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Yes, you're right, we very much need to be able to develop and then use home grown pitching talent on a much more regular basis. A good queation to ask is, "why don't we".
I suspect it's because of the intense pressure to ALWAYS win today. And a fear of being torn apart by the NY and national media for losing a game or (gasp) two. We spend all this money, it's not acceptable to lose. Look at what happens to AJ and A-Rod - they can't slump, they cant be inconsistent like any other human because of all the money we pay them. We pay for and expect perfection.
In some ways, it's why I enjoy ST so much- we get a chance to see (and dream about) the next Ron Guidry.
I won't look forward to next year just yet - still too absorbed in this year's run for the ring.
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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October 5, 2011 08:34 AM
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Peter,
I completely agree -- the Yankees need to move to a more sustainable model. The Yankees' tremendous resources does have a down side -- it enables an organizational lack of patience. Why spend the time waiting for young players to develop? Player development is such a crap shoot. So many "sure things" aren't. And so many talents come out of nowhere. Look at Pujols and Mattingly -- they were drafted low. The temptation to go for the easy fix and buy proven talent off the shelf is overwhelming -- it's quick and easy. And historically, it has almost never worked in any major North American sport.
Question for you: What to do about CC when he opts out? He's going to want more years and more $$$. My prediction is that the Yankees will look at their pitching staff, panic at the thought of not having an ace, and give him whatever he wants. And I think they'll live to regret it, just as I believe they are regretting A-Rod's contract. I think what they need to do is conclude that the last three years have been great, be thankful for the production they got, but realize that he's got still more miles on the arm, he's looking to be the best paid pitcher in the game (actually, he is already), and more money/years simply wouldn't be a prudent business decision. I am not sure that CC would get more money/years from another team at this point. He's not pitched all that well since July.
Of course, if the Yankees make it to the LCS (and WS) and he pitches really well, that will change everybody's calculations. Even then, I can't see the wisdom in giving him more than 5 years.
Posted by: Greg | October 5, 2011 12:13 PM |
Greg
Totally agree, I hope that they walk away if he opts out. But, I think we both know that is probably not going to happen.
What I would like to see happen is the Yankees offer to give CC a few more million per year, but not extend the length of the deal in any way.
I have serious misgivings about even the remaining four years left on his deal. It may be my eyesight (poor) but CC looks a lot bigger than he was when the season starts. He has already had knee surgery once and as you pointed out, he hasn't been great since July.
The thing is, besides Nova, who is in the 2012 rotation right now if they let CC walk? I am convinced they trade AJ and I don't see them gambling on a repeat from Garcia or Colon.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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October 5, 2011 02:20 PM
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Peter,
I'm not sure they'll have any takers for AJ, at least not on terms they'll consider acceptable. They're not gong to give him away for nothing while also paying most of his contract.
Next year is obviously a very important year for Hughes. By the Yankees' (admittedly minimal) standards, they've shown a lot of patience with him. The Yankees really need him to start realizing some of the enormous potential they've seen in him. His time has got to be now.
I wouldn't be surprised, given their reluctance to trust their youngsters, that they're going to end up bringing one of the two "grizzled veterans" back -- perhaps Garcia. Just a hunch.
I'm thinking one slot has got to be opened for one of the youngsters. We shall see.
Posted by: Greg | October 5, 2011 04:58 PM |
Greg
Not for nothing, but I could see them going to a GM they like and offering AJ in return for one of the GM's problem deals. Or offering to pay say half his contract for a guy who could come in and help the '12 club.
The thing about Hughes is that Cashman loves him. I expect him (and want him) to be part of the 2012 rotation. But I agree, if he doesn't do it next year, all bets are off.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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October 5, 2011 05:17 PM
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