Let Me Count the Ways
For all the kudos Theo Epstein receives, and rightly so, he has also made his fair share of terrible moves. Recent moves and results magnify his bad deals. Here are a few:
John Lackey - Just grim right now and signed at big-money for many more years. Overall grade thus far (including 2010): F+. The grade should be higher as his 2010 wasn't terrible, but Lackey has demonstrated the ability to completely not play the part of a competitor in post-game interviews. He will mention personal issues, vague physical issues, and just sounds terrible when pressed. He'd be better off pulling a JD Drew and just not talking. The Red Sox are screwed if Lackey doesn't pull it together as he's going to be here awhile.
Mike Cameron - A 2-year, $15.5mm deal. Cameron might have been a great teammate, but injuries coupled with ineffectiveness made this deal awful. Grade: D+.
JD Drew - 5 years @ $14mm per year.
OPS:
2007 - .796
2008 - .927
2009 - .914
2010 - .793
2011 - .666
Drew was average in year 1, he definitely excelled in 2008 and 2009 and has slipped since, especially this year, where he has been a non-factor. The big problem I have with this deal is that Drew doesn't play hurt (either can't or won't) and he doesn't produce (68 RBI is his Red Sox high, remember he gets paid $14mm a year). Drew does play good defense, but only when he is on the field. He manages to pass through the night undetected most games and even if I can't perfectly quantify it, there is just something missing from his game. Overall grade: C. $70mm demands better than a C grade.
Carl Crawford: Grade: Incomplete. Obviously giving Crawford a grade yet is premature. But he got off to a horrific start this year and then started to turn things around before getting hurt. But here we are, 55% through the season and he has a .659 OPS. His April OPS was .431 (what, really?!?), May - .810 and June .761. What is really concerning is that even in May when he hit .304, his OBP was only .328, anemic. To quote Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan, "Earn this, earn it."
Daisuke Matsuzaka - While the Red Sox only committed $52mm over 6 years to Matsuzaka, they also paid a whopping posting fee of $51,111,111.11 to his former team the Seibu Lions. While that $51mm+ didn't count toward payroll, it was a fantastically huge number that could have been deployed in any number of ways (additional player contracts factoring in luxury tax, park renovations or even cheaper beer which as of last night's game, was $8.00 per Bud Light). He gets good grades for his first 2 seasons (both statistically and considering the expected adjustment needed), but he derailed when he demonstrated poor conditioning and inability to work with Red Sox coaches in developing a workable game plan for success. With Matsuzaka shelved the rest of this year and at least half of next, this deal is a bust. Grade: D+.
Bobby Jenks: Incomplete, but headed in the wrong direction. Normally I wouldn't bother commenting on a middle reliever (see Dan Wheeler), but given the financial commitment, this deal hasn't worked thus far. Jenks might very well turn it around and pitch well for the rest of 2011 and all of 2012, but so far, we are on the wrong boat.
There are others (Renteria), but I wanted to condense this post.
Epstein has helped bring 2 World Series trophies to Boston and has also helped build a competitive team year over year, but that doesn't mean he should be excused for his flops. Given the Red Sox financial strength, it is easy to overcome bad contracts, but wouldn't it be nice if Red Sox management could shoot better from the line.
Comments
Personally, I thought the Lackey signing was a great move and I wished (at the time) that the Yankees had done it. I don't know what happened to that guy, but I am shocked at how bad he is.
Now the Crawford deal struck me as insane. He's a nice player, but not worth anywhere near that kind of money.
I also think Theo should probably never sign another free agent shortstop again, it's just not his strong suit.
Posted by: Peter
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July 7, 2011 06:05 PM
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I would go so far as to say, "what?" The team was floundering through the 90's and had all kinds of worse moves/worse players come through. Division/wildcard run every year with a chance to win it all if the stars align. Deep pockets allow Lackey et al.
Injuries to key players is doing them more damage than Lackey, Dice K etc. are.
Posted by: blmeanie
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July 7, 2011 07:51 PM
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btw Peter- don't know if you read the blog Dugout Central or not but a Montero bashing big time over there.
http://www.dugoutcentral.com/?p=1995
Thoughts?
Posted by: blmeanie
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July 7, 2011 07:53 PM
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Andy - I think Theo would make a great GM for the Yankees after Cashman bolts (if he does, that is). Theo is smart and takes calculated risks - and he's a proven winner.
Posted by: Mitchell
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July 7, 2011 09:03 PM
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BL
I don't normally read it, but I read your link.
I don't know if Montero can catch in the bigs. I am not sure anyone does and I don't worry about it. I guess I look at it as how much "catching" did Mike Piazza really do?
As for his bat, I think he can hit and he has proven that at AAA. I suspect his numbers this year are more about a lack of interest in AAA than anything else. I don't condone that and I think it speaks to a maturity issue with him.
I suspect the reason the Yankees have kept him in the minors so far is not because they have soured on him but because they don't want to expose him to the bigs and risk devaluing him as a trade chip. (If he can't handle catching at the big league level that would obviously lower his value) I would expect him to be promoted shortly after the trade deadline if he is still a Yankee.
Posted by: Peter
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July 7, 2011 09:41 PM
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Andy,
GMs can't always get it right -- it's asking them to have clairvoyance that no one can reasonably be expected to possess. Theo has played an indispensable role in bringing two WS championships to Boston in the space of three years. His trade of Garciaparra was especially gutsy -- and, I believe (in retrospect, of course) absolutely the right move. He plays a critical role in keeping the Red Sox a competitive team year in and year out, and generally compelling. I don't think you can really ask for anything more. Count your blessings, I say. You could have done much worse than hire Theo -- just think, you could have gotten stuck with Omar Minaya or the previous GM of the Blue Jays (remember the Vernon Wells deal?)
All kidding aside, as a Yankee fan, I respect Theo's baseball smarts and competitive edge.
Posted by: Greg | July 7, 2011 10:44 PM |
thanks Peter- I was mostly interested in your take on whether his stock is sinking quickly and whether the Yankees would need to move him this year to get the most from him?
or
do you believe he will be in pinstripes for a long time?
also - did you read the lengthy comments from the regulars over there that are at the bottom of the blog post? I've posted comments over there a few times, very cliche group.
Posted by: blmeanie | July 8, 2011 07:52 AM |
BL
It's a great question, let me take a crack at it.
I think Montero might be one of the hardest guys in the game to put a value on right now. From what I have read, everyone thinks he will hit in the bigs, but some scouts see him doing it at catcher and some don't. Obviously, his value is much, much higher if he can catch.
That's why I think he will either be traded at the deadline in a package for a big name or promoted to the Yankees shortly thereafter. His value will only go down if he stays in AAA for the full year.
As for the comments, not really my cup of tea, your description is a good one.
Posted by: Peter
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July 8, 2011 09:17 AM
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I agree, but believe that if anybody in the Yankee organization doubts he can catch long term they will do whatever they can to move him this month. If they promote him and over time it becomes apparent he cannot catch long term then they would get significantly less down the road for him, or have a DH clogging the path of A-Rod/Jeter etc.
Maybe he can catch? Salty is finally showing signs of hitting halfway decently and I don't believe anybody thinks he is a good catcher.
Posted by: blmeanie | July 8, 2011 09:20 AM |
Mitchell and Greg, thanks for your input. I completely agree on Theo, glad he is here, no doubt.
Just felt the need to point out that he isn't perfect. Hey, need to keep him honest, right?
Over the past 17 years, the Red Sox have known only 2 GMs, Dan Duquette and Theo. Duquette took his share of heat, but he turned around this franchise and got them pointed in the right direction. Theo not only grabbed the baton, but he ran at full speed and with the help of a deep-pocket ownership group with creativity and ability to maximize revenue (ads, tickets, NESN, bricks at Fenway, etc), the Red Sox are in a good place to be sure.
Posted by: Andy | July 8, 2011 11:13 PM |
yes, good deep pockets and a desire to win along with baseball minds and a historic park due to turn 100 next year.
sorry I took your post off on a tangent btw
Posted by: blmeanie
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July 9, 2011 08:16 AM
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I wonder if Cashman and Theo would be "good" GM's if they ran the Pirates?
Posted by: Peter
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July 9, 2011 09:34 AM
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that is an interesting question
Posted by: blmeanie
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July 9, 2011 09:50 AM
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OK, so Peter floats a question, BL acknowledges the goodness of the question - and no one thinks to continue? What? Someone needs to start a new thread? Until that happens ... here's my take:
They'd both still be smart guys and shrewd negotiators with winning records but their won/loss records probably wouldn't be as *consistently* strong and/or positive due to the need to rely on somewhat younger players to fill the roster but hey, that's baseball in a capitalist society. :-)
Posted by: Mitchell
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July 10, 2011 03:56 PM
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