Halfway Home
Didn't it seem like yesterday was Opening Day? Can it really be true that the Yankees have now completed 81 games? Am I the only one who thinks that was fast? Well whatever happened to the time, we know the result- the Yankees are 50-31 with a 1-1/2 game lead in the AL East. Last year they came to the halfway point at 48-33, 1 game back. They have scored 15 fewer runs than at this point last year, but allowed 50 fewer. By the pythagorean win-loss method, they are exactly where they should be.
In 2009, the Yankees scored more runs in the second half (+13) and allowed fewer (-27) while compiling a 55-26 record. It will be interesting to see if the 2010 Yankees can equal that production. I think it is fair to say that the current team has only two hitters significantly hitting above their projections- Gardner and Cano. Yet guys like A-Rod, Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira and Johnson are well below their career numbers. If things revert to norm, you would have to expect the offense to improve.
On the pitching front, Andy Pettitte seems due for a big correction. Phil Hughes hasn't shown he can do this as a starter over a full season. Vazquez and Burnett should get better if you believe the back of their baseball cards, Sabathia is pretty much where you would expect him to be. What I keep wondering is if the Yankees should go all in on someone like Cliff Lee and move Hughes to the bullpen? Joba hasn't been the setup guy we expected and none of the other relievers look like they are ready to step up. It would cost Montero, plus something else, but imagine what the Yankees would have with Lee in the rotation and Hughes back in the 7th and 8th.
But that's a discussion for the near future. For now, let's enjoy the final 81 games of 2010.
Comments
My guess and hope, at least at this halfway point, is that we pass on Lee until 2011. My worries right now are Mo's aches and pains and the effectiveness of the bullpen as well as the performance/health of Jorge, Jeter and A-Rod.
Picking up a rental DH and maybe an extra arm for the pen would be good move for Cashman to make this month.
Posted by: Mitchell
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July 7, 2010 07:48 AM
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I agree that Hughes probably won't continue his great first half... however, if you want a guy to stay when he has the option to go, benching him with a 10-2 record probably isn't a good idea. I agree that we hold off until 2010. Nobody wants to talk about this but Cliff Lee, like many other starters, is no miracle of mental health. We could end up with another Burnett, I don't see the reason to trade for him when we can get him on the open market in 6 months. Our starting rotation is better now than it was on our champion team last year, let's ride 'em back to the top!
Posted by: Evan | July 7, 2010 10:52 AM |
The Yanks have to be laughing all the way to the first half lead. All the negatives (ARod, Tex, Jeter, etc.) being offset by timely pitching, Cano career year, Hughes step up, Pettitte perfection must leave you with expectations of running away with the division.
I think Boston is in dire straights right now. They've withstood the injuries as they mounted but the latest earthquakes are enough to break them and send them into the ocean...13 guys on DL, 11 from opening day roster.
Pitching, defense, surgery scars and crutches win championships...(my new Theo'ism)
Posted by: blmeanie | July 7, 2010 11:11 AM |
Almost random comment:
a little while ago, I thought that AJ would be a differrent/improved pitcher if he could throw a decent changeup. Listening to tonight's game, one of thw announcer's indicated that AJ is a 4 pitch guy, one of those pitches being a changeup. Well, that's great news to me. Funny thing, when I dial up Gameday on the web, while they show him throwing a changeup, it's listed as an 89 mph changeup with his fastball showing 92. I'm not impressed ...
Posted by: Mitchell
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July 7, 2010 10:54 PM
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All things considered, I'm feeling pretty good about where things stand. The Yanks reached the half-way point with the best record in either league, on a pace to win 100 games, even though they were not firing on all cylinders, especially in the "second quarter". CC is in mid-season form, Tex is slowly coming around, A-Rod's bat is waking up, Cano has been better than I expected, Andy had an excellent first half and is usually a better second-half pitcher, Vazquez has settled down considerably, Hughes had a great first half (his recent hiccups notwithstanding), Swisher has been fairly solid, Gardner has been all I could have reasonably hoped for. Given the challenges they faced in the first half, especially in the bullpen, I think the Yanks did well for themselves. It could have been quite a bit worse. We'll need to see Jeter and Posada pick it up, Hughes to return to form, and AJ settle down, but above all, the bullpen must get straightened out, especially Joba. I am concerned that the Yankees will be lucky to make the post-season, let alone advance unless the bullpen performs more reliably. That's my biggest worry, by far. Another bat would be nice, but for all their struggles the Yankees still have one of the best offenses in either league. What do you guys think?
Posted by: Greg | July 8, 2010 12:26 AM |
Mitchell/Evan- I go back on forth on the Cliff Lee thing. It's more about solidifying the bullpen to me than the need for another starter. I'm still hashing out my argument, so that's why I put a question mark in there. The case for waiting until the offseason is a compelling one as well.
Posted by: Peter
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July 8, 2010 10:28 AM
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BL- The 2010 Red Sox remind me a lot of the 2008 Yankees, a ton of injuries. The thing is, the Red Sox are right there still and those players will heal, so I am not counting them out at all.
The interesting thing will be if the Rays, Sox and Yankees all win the 95+ games they are on pace to win we will have a very deserving team sitting at home for the playoffs. I wonder if that would make MLB look to add a wild card spot or do something to prevent that from happening again?
Posted by: Peter
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July 8, 2010 10:31 AM
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Mitchell- I am sure you have seen this, but just in case
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/07/08/postgame-notes-another-change-for-the-better/
It's interesting on the MPH thing. Felix Hernandez is averaging 89.5mph on his with a 94mph fastball, so perhaps the speed differential isn't as important as I thought.
Posted by: Peter
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July 8, 2010 10:34 AM
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Greg-
I am really happy with the way the team has played so far. I agree on the bullpen, the Yankees have to sort that out.
As for a bat, I would like to see the Yankees get someone who can play a couple of positions and allow them to rotate the DH spot, but I doubt they will do that if Nick Johnson is expected back.
Posted by: Peter
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July 8, 2010 10:40 AM
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