Playing For Second?
I have heard a lot of chatter as Round 2 of the Yankees-Red Sox gets started that both teams better get used to the reality that only one of them is going to make the playoffs. The reason for this line of thinking is of course the incredibly fast start of Tampa Bay. And the statistic most used as evidence for that is this one- the Rays are only the second team since 1961 (1984 Tigers) to have a +83 run differential over the first 28 games.
That run differential is very impressive, but like most things it is useless unless you put it in context. I like Baseball Prospectuses' adjusted standings which adjust for the strength of your opposition (look at column 3) In that world the Rays +83 run differential shrinks to +41. The Yankees +55 shrinks to +40 and Boston's 0 rises to +13. I should probably note that Toronto would be +18, but I am not expecting them to last this season.
It doesn't mean that the pundits are wrong, Tampa has a very good shot of making the playoffs. Yankees' fans certainly remember 2008, but it also means things are not quite as lopsided as they may appear. What it emphasizes again to me, is how important every win is going to be this year. It is going to be a dogfight in the AL East.
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No Posada in the lineup tonight apparently, which isn't a shock to me. With tomorrow's afternoon start you had to think Posada wasn't going to catch both games. In that case, why not give him another day of rest?
What is interesting, is Mark Feinsand is reporting that the Yankees will skip Pettitte for one start and use Mitre in Detroit on Monday. Not sure why they would put him in Monday when Pettitte's turn is coming up Tuesday and why they chose Mitre over Aceves, but I am sure we will find out. I would suspect that another pitcher will be summoned to the bigs to help out the bullpen at the expense of Golson. We shall see.
Back after the game with some thoughts and take a look at Twitter (http://twitter.com/YankeesRedSox) during the game for some thoughts. We have six followers and I bet we can get that to 7 by the end of the month!
UPDATE 5:05: And LoHud is reporting that Romulo Sanchez is in the locker room in Boston with Greg Golson "nowhere to be found". I don't know why the Yankees would not have waited until tomorrow for this move because the bullpen should be pretty fresh with six rested arms and we already know the lineup is down Posada. I wonder if Mariano isn't available tonight?
UPDATE 5:40: Rivera is available tonight. So that means the guy with the 6+ERA in Scranton and 14 walks in 25 innings is in the bullpen. Meanwhile the bench has three guys on it with the manager trying to keep one of them, Posada, out of the game. I hope everyone in the lineup stays healthy!
