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Ever hear that song? It's pretty funny and it really reminds me of the situation with Johnny Damon. Stories like this one and several others keep talking about how Damon wants to come back to the Yankees.
The thing I don't get is why Damon kept playing games with the Yankees in that case? Why did he let Boras do the negotiating if he wanted to come back?
Now that Johnny Damon absolutely, positively, won't be returning to the Yankees (except maybe at the trade deadline) the stories are flying about who lied and who lost. Personally, I think everything you need to know about this situation is summed up nicely by Brian Cashman in this quote:
“On Dec. 17, Scott’s exact words were that he would not take a penny less than $13 million a year for two years. We believed him.”
I really like the way Cashman added, "We believed him" to the end of that. It's a nice touch.
The need to fill column inches in a slow sports cycle have led this story to be way overblown. The fact is, Damon was pretty much gone the moment the Yankees signed Nick Johnson. Sure, they could have brought him back to play left field, but I never got the feeling the Yankees wanted to do that. Rightly or wrongly (I think rightly) the Yankees viewed Damon as primarily a DH as this point. Think about the playoffs, it was Damon who the Yankees substituted for in late innings situations, not Swisher. There was Game 3 of the ALCS when the Angels loaded the bases with one out in the 10th. Obviously, the outfield is going to play shallow, but even with that, Girardi removed Damon and put Hairston in left. That move cost the Yankees their DH in the game, but Girardi had no choice, he knew Damon couldn't throw out Jeff Mathis, a catcher, even though he was playing halfway in.
The way to look at what the Yankees have done this offseason is this way. Out go Damon, Matsui and Cabrera. In come Granderson, Johnson and Winn. Using an average of projection systems, the trio of Damon, Matsui and Cabrera could be expected to create about 225 runs in 2010. The trio of Winn, Granderson and Johnson could be expected to create about 240 runs. That's a net difference of +15 for the Yankees and we haven't talked about defense yet. Factor in the addition of Javier Vazquez to the rotation and the Yankees have definitely upgraded their ballclub.
Now, that doesn't mean they will win 103 games again, but they certainly could They were a bit lucky in 2009 and probably should have won 101 games using Baseball Prospectuses' third order wins calculation. The lineup is a trickier proposition. It isn't far fetched to expect significant declines in production from Jeter and Posada because of their age. A-Rod is also at an age where his numbers could drop back a bit. But, you have Swisher, Teixeira, Granderson and Johnson in what should be their peak years. You have Cano just arriving at what should be his peak years. Add it all up and by removing Damon and Matsui for Granderson and Johnson, the Yankees got significantly younger at two spots and the lineup should be able to weather age regressions at cacther, short and third. If they had kept Damon and Matsui, they would have been at risk for age regressions at five spots instead of three.
Now, I would feel a bit more comfortable with the lineup if the Yankees added, as rumored, a player like Gomes or Thames on a minor league deal. Jamie Hoffman is an interesting player, but Gomes and Thames have shown they can hit in the bigs. Put one of them on the bench and you have a dangerous righty bat to use in a number of different ways. But, even if the Yankees stand pat, they have an excellent chance of winning the AL East again and with an improved rotation, going far in the playoffs.
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And since I mentioned Marcus Thames, I thought I would throw out a trivia question. Thames homered in his first big league at bat off of what pitcher?
Joel Sherman is reporting that the Yankees have signed Randy Winn to a one-year deal. This is a move I don't get at all unless there is another move coming. Yes, Winn is right handed and he can play all three outfield spots, but he is coming off a year when he hit .262/.318/.353 and put up a .384 OPS against LHP.
We don't have contract information yet and that will really determine if this deal was good or bad. If they added Winn for very little money to play a bench role, that's great. Otherwise.....
UPDATE: Sherman is saying that Winn got about $2 million and the Yankees valued him more than Reed Johnson. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Also, that means this signing is the last move the Yankees will probably make this offseason and if so, it's kind of like finishing a great dinner with a $2 cigar.
You may have heard that David Cone is not returning to the YES booth next year. What you may not have heard are the reasons and Joel Sherman details them today. One of the main reasons apparently is a fight Cone had with a YES executive after he said the team would fall out of playoff contention if it kept playing poorly. The executive came to Cone and said that Hank Steinbrenner didn't like that comment and Cone shouldn't make more comments like that.
That YES is a propaganda vehicle for the Yankees is no shock, but why does it have to be? It is downright painful to listen to Michael Kay and some of the other announcers when the Yankees are playing poorly because they act as if everything is great. I don't know why the YES executives are so fearful of honesty. If the Yankees stink, let the announcers say that. People are smart enough to figure out the quality of what they see on the tube. YES seems to want to resemble a communist news organization, giving only its version of the news and blocking out any criticism of the team.
As I was thinking about this, I realized that YES broadcasts the Nets during basketball season. I am going to have to give them a listen and see what they say about that team. If they won't criticize the Nets and their 3-40 (yes, 3-40!) record, then there is no chance they will criticize anything and that's a shame.
The Yankees added Greg Golson to the roster today in exchange for Mitch Hilligross. It's a swap of two 24-year olds, but Hilligross has never gotten out of A ball while Golson has made 7 AB's in the bigs. It's basically adding something for nothing, but the "something" isn't much to get excited about.
Yes, Golson was once a #1 pick and yes he reportedly has great speed and a great arm. Add in the fact that he is righthanded and you suddenly think the Yankees might have found the piece they need for their outfield. But, the problem is Golson can't hit. He has a career .308 OBP in the minors and put up a line of .258/.299/.344 in AAA last year. Sure, he could suddenly put it together, but it is unlikely.
Then again, he can play outfield at AAA next year and he certainly could fill the role that Freddy Guzman did in the playoffs last year. At the cost of Hilligross, that's a pretty good return.
As Johnny Damon remains a hot topic, I found this article about why teams are wary of signing him a good read.
It basically argues that he is indeed a DH at this point, something that those of us who watched him play this season can hardly disagree with. I have said it before and I will say it again, before the Yankees signed Nick Johnson, bringing Damon back made a lot of sense. Now that they have closed the DH spot, Damon is a less than ideal fit for this team, but we will have to listen to talk about him until he signs somewhere.
UPDATE: Nady will not be coming back to NY.
It's the first Saturday without football since August, which means we are rapidly heading to the dead zone of the sports year. Three more NFL games left and then nothing. Luckily, this year we will have the Olympics, which should help fill the cold days of February.
As for the Yankees, there really isn't much news, but I did pick up a couple of things from the interview Joe Girardi did on YES the other day.
1- Five guys (Joba, Hughes, Aceves, Mitre and Gaudin) will have a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation.
2- However, Girardi specifically said that Hughes and Aceves would have innings limits in the rotation.
This further solidifies my desire for Joba to go into the rotation. The Yankees spent a lot of effort getting him in under his innings limit in 2009 and they throw that all away by putting him in the pen at the start of 2010. Put him in the rotation and see what happens when he doesn't have to worry about innings limits, etc.. I also don't want another year of the Yankees monkeying around with a pitcher over innings limits which eliminates Hughes and Aceves and I definitely don't want to see Mitre in the rotation. Gaudin intrigues me, but I still don't trust his command for work every fifth day.
But, there is a longer term issue here and that is Hughes. If his future is ultimately in the rotation, you want him to throw 140 innings or so this year. That's not going to happen with him coming out of the pen. I don't know what the answer is there, but the Yankees should spend a few minutes of spring and think about a way they can maximize Hughes' 2010 innings.
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You keep hearing the Johnny Damon drumbeat and I imagine you will until he signs somewhere, but my question at this point is why would the Yankees want him back? I know his bat and speed are a wonderful mix, but his defense is atrocious. If you sign him, you have to play him in left because Nick Johnson has to DH. Putting Gardner in left, drastically upgrades the defense. And, while Damon would clearly out-hit Gardner, the difference may not be as much as you think. Bill James projects Damon to have a .785 OPS and Gardner to have a .743 OPS in 2010. Throw in the defensive difference and I wonder exactly how much of an upgrade bringing Damon back would be?
Jerry Hairston just signed a one-year/$2.15 million deal with the Padres. It's not that shocking that the Yankees let him go, he just doesn't have the bat to play the outfield and Ramiro Pena can do almost exactly the same things Hairston does.
His signing means that of the seven free agents the Yankees had at the end of 2009, four have found homes. Hinske (Atl), Matsui (Ana) and Hairston (SD) all went elsewhere with Pettitte coming back to NY. It leaves Nady, Damon and Molina still looking for a team to play on next year and we are less than a month from pitchers and catchers.
So Curt Shilling took Martha Coakley, candidate for Senate, to task for claiming he was a Yankees' fan. You can listen to her make her statement here.
It sounds to me like Martha hasn't watched a lot of baseball. I just hope voters on both sides don't use baseball knowledge or fan affiliation to determine who they are voting for. Things are way too important in this country right now for that.
Was there anyone left who thought that Mark McGwire was clean? I really don't have much to say about his "admission" today, but I did find this quote from baseball's commissioner to be interesting:
"I am pleased that Mark McGwire has confronted his use of performance-enhancing substances as a player. Being truthful is always the correct course of action, which is why I had commissioned Senator George Mitchell to conduct his investigation. This statement of contrition, I believe, will make Mark's re-entry into the game much smoother and easier."
So let's get this straight. McGwire cheated the game for years. He avoided telling the truth for years. He wouldn't even admit to using steroids when asked by Congress and Selig feels fit to be "pleased" by him? Now, let's look at a statement Selig issued 11 months ago when A-Rod admitted he used steroids:
"What Alex did was wrong and he will have to live with the damage he has done to his name and reputation. While Alex deserves credit for publicly confronting the issue, there is no valid excuse for using such substances, and those who use them have shamed the game."
There seem to be some inconsistencies in these two approaches and I would LOVE to hear the commissioner explain why the two different statements. A-Rod "shamed the game", but McGwire will have a "smoother and easier" re-entry into baseball because he told the truth.
From my view in the cheap seats we have two athletes who committed the same crime. Neither one of them would have ever admitted it unless they had to. I give A-Rod a little more credit for not dragging things out for years over this, but if one of them shamed the game, the other one certainly did as well. So, why the two completely different statements? Anyone have any ideas?
So the stories are flying that Derek Jeter is getting married on November 5th. The problem is that if MLB goes with the same postseason schedule they did last year, Game 7 of the World Series would be November 4th.
Derek, as someone who is married I can tell you that between the chances of a rainout and the victory parade, you want more of a cushion than 24 hours. No point in worrying about being able to make it to the church on time because of baseball.
So, move the wedding to November 12th and while you're at it, why get married in New York in November? You have plenty of money, go someplace where the weather is nice!
The Yankees are in "serious" talks with Jerry Hairston? I don't get it. Not that I don't like what Hairston brings to the table in terms of positional flexibility, but as a platoon outifielder Hairston is a bad idea. In his career, Hairston has put up a .264/.323/.386 line against LHP. That is a rate that spells disaster as a platoon player. When you add in the fact that guys like Gomes (.274/.369/.517 vs LHP) Nady (.308/.383/.471 vs. LHP) and Reed Johnson (313/.378/.463 vs LHP) are available, I don't get it.
Now, there is a chance that the Yankees are thinking about adding Hairston as the utility infielder. My question in that case is how much of an upgrade is Hairston over Pena? Pena can play the all over the infield too and he has started to learn the outfield. He doesn't have the experience of Hairston, but he has youth on his side and could improve with his bat.
Plus, Pena will cost 400k, Hairston is reportedly looking for $2-$3 million. If the Yankees are trying to control costs, this seems like an odd decision. If it is the last move the Yankees make before camp, it will be a disappointing end to a great offseason.
I keep reading all these posts about how Johnny Damon will somehow fit back into the New York plans for 2010, but I am 99.9999% sure that ship sailed. Here is what Cashman said about this to Chad Jennings from LoHud Wednesday.
“I consider this position I’m playing in as a bench role. Right-handed hitting outfielder that Joe can look on the bench and say, I’m not going to start one of my left-handers, I’m going to start a right-hander.”
Let's recap. Damon is a starter and last I looked he hits lefty.
And while I understand some people keep talking about Cashman's vow that Bubba Crosby would be the starting centerfielder in 2006. This isn't the same situation. Brett Gardner WAS the starting centerfielder in 2009. The Yankees were comfortable with that breaking camp and they won a World Series, why wouldn't they be comfortable doing that again this year?
So, a righty outfielder is exactly what this team needs and LoHud has a good collection of candidates. Personally, I would be happy with Johnson, Gomes or Nady. I view Johnson as the best defender, Gomes the best bat and Nady the best blend of the too (assuming he is healthy). Signing one of those guys will pretty much solidify the team, but there is still a bit of work to be done.
That work is down in AAA where the Yankees are pretty much devoid of outfielders right now. If you look at the 40-man, there is depth everywhere except outfield. The Yankees need to find a couple of guys who have a bit in the majors and are willing to come to camp on split contracts. Right now one injury in the outfield would be a huge problem.
The Red Sox acquired Bill Hall from the Mariners yesterday for Casey Kotchman. They also received a player to be named later and cash. Prospect Insider speculates it might be Hassiel Jimenez.
Hall is set to earn $8.4mm this year, but the cash in the deal will make the Red Sox hit only around $1.375mm or so. I haven't found details on this yet, but Cot's Baseball Contracts suggest that amount.
Hall hit 35 home runs one year, but that was 2006 and since then, he hasn't done anything offensively. 2007 - 740 OPS (not bad), 2008 - .689, 2009 - .596 (ughh).
Hall will come in handy as a super utility player with his ability to play any outfield spot and any infield spot except first. A quick look suggests he's a decent all around fielder, which is really where his only value lies.
Kotchman found himself without a position, especially with Mike Lowell still on the team. Given Lowell's recent surgery, it is unlikely the Red Sox will be able to move him prior to spring training, so they'll let him get healthy and showcase him in pre-season and early regular season.
I think there is a strong chance he stays with the team well into the 2010 season given his decent righty bat and the risk that David Ortiz doesn't return to form. He is a luxury to be sure at $12mm, but if he stayed, it wouldn't be the worst thing for the team, although he might not enjoy it that much.
Using February 17th as a reporting date, we are about 41 days until spring training!
Today was the annual day for the BBWAA to look foolish and they didn't disappoint. Exhibit A is Roberto Alomar, if you don't think he was a Hall of Famer, you really weren't paying attention. I suspect it was about the spitting incident more than anything, a chance for the voters to "punish" him, which makes me even angrier. You can make plenty of other cases for players like Raines, Blyleven, Morris, Larkin, etc..
I have argued for a change in the voting process, but I think the biggest change should be public ballots. Strip away the secrecy and you might find some interesting things.
For instance, did the one voter who cast a ballot for David Segui, mentioned in the Mitchell Report, not vote for Mark McGwire? I have no idea, but wouldn't it be fascinating to find out?
How about if we knew if the guy who voted for Kevin Appier didn't vote for Jack Morris or Bert Blyleven?
Two people deemed Eric Karros worthy of induction, who else did they vote for?
But, the writers get to bask in their anonymity which seems grossly unfair. The better ones, guys like Heyman, Sherman, Gammons, etc., tell you who they voted for, but most just keep quiet.
It's a sad process and one unworthy of baseball's ultimate honor.
And to the five people who sent in blank ballots, I hope you come forward and explain them.
The Hall Of Fame announces the Class of 2010 today at 2pm. Who makes your cut?
For me, the only real lock is Roberto Alomar. The spitting incident was horrible, but the Hall Of Fame isn't about behavior, it's about baseball.
Other than Alomar, I could make a case for Raines, Larkin, Dawson, Blyleven and Morris, but I also don't feel like any of them are clear choices.
What does everyone think?
UPDATE: Congrats to Andre Dawson who got the call. The only player elected this year! I am kind of shocked Alomar didn't make it. I hope it wasn't over the spitting, but the BBWAA is all about personal agendas.
Jon Heyman is reporting that Holliday has reached a seven-year/$120 million deal with the Cardinals.
With Bay, Lackey and now Holliday gone the "gems" of the free agent market have all been placed. Now, we will probably see the logjam break on the lower-tier players as the game of musical chairs moves along.
UPDATE: And Randy Johnson announced his retirement so we can now look ahead five years to that glorious day when he goes into Cooperstown as a Yankee....
News today that Terry Francona will have Mike Cameron start in CF and Jacoby Ellsbury in LF. With that and yesterday's Adrian Beltre news, the Red Sox line-up looks like this:
c - Victor Martinez (.912 OPS)
1b - Kevin Youkilis (.961)
2b - Dustin Pedrois (.819)
3b - Adrian Beltre (.683)
ss - Marco Scutaro (.789)
lf - Jacoby Ellsbury (.770)
cf - Mike Cameron (.795)
rf - J.D. Drew (.914)
dh - David Ortiz (.794)
In other news, www.prospectinsider.com is reporting the Red Sox are close to trading Casey Kotchman to the Seattle Mariners.
This line-up isn't as good as last year's edition and can only hope to score as many runs as 2009. That said, if Ortiz can hit like he did the last 4 months last year, Beltre benefits from hitting at Fenway vs. Safeco and a full season of Martinez instead of Varitek might keep things closer than one might think, but a many things have to fall correctly for that to be the case.
I still think this team needs a boffo bat, but with the salary committed thus far, I'm not sure we're going to see in in 2010 and expect hitting help will arrive in 2011.
I've spent the last few days talking to Yankees' fans who are furious that the Yankees traded Arodys Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez. Their argument usually references the Ken Phelps-Jay Buhner swap or some other awful deal from the 1980's.
I don't get it. The Yankees just added a pitcher who went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 K's last year and this is a bad thing? But, he sucked in 2004 and cost the Yankees the ALCS is the reply. Well, he had a rough second half in 04, but in the first half he went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA. Then he had an arm injury and fell apart. These things happen and while his pitching in Game 7 was hideous, there were many other culprits I would name for the loss of that ALCS before Vazquez.
Vazquez has flaws, but I am willing to bet that the adverse reaction to him is more about 2004 than anything else. If the Yankees had traded for someone with those exact numbers who had never worn the pinstripes, people would be dancing in the streets.
And while I get the mourning over Vizcaino, let's think about this for a minute. This is a guy who pitched 42 innings last season in low A ball. Yes, they were very effective innings and he has stuff that scouts love, but he is probably at minimum three years from the majors and he has to stay healthy. Think of all the pitchers who have shined in the minors recently and then got derailed by injury. Alan Horne dominated in AA in 2007 and got hurt. Dellin Betances, who had very good numbers in low A ball in 2007 hasn't made it to AA because of injuries. There are just so many things that can happen to a pitcher that to mourn the loss of a guy who hasn't made it past Staten Island is silly. Sure, he could develop into a big time pitcher, but that isn't going to happen until 2013 at best. The Yankees are trying to repeat as World Champs and this is exactly the type of deal you make to do that. They have added a guy who should give them 200 innings that should be at worst league-average and could definitely be above-average. That's more than you need out of a fourth starter and keep in mind the biggest thing about Vazquez- he is pitching in 2010 for his next contract.
Also think about whom the Yankees didn't trade this offseason. Hughes and Joba are still here. Montero is set to open the season in AAA, Romine in AA. Zach McAllister, fresh off a 2.23 ERA in Trenton will head to Scranton as well. They have traded four guys who could have played on the 2010 team- Cabrera, Jackson, Coke and Dunn, but all four of those guys had flaws in terms of 2010. Jackson and Dunn probably needing more seasoning, Coke looking more like a one-hit wonder than a quality lefty bullpen guy and Cabrera better suited to a fourth outfielder role than a starting job.
There is still some work to be done for the Yankees, putting together a bench is certainly going to be vital. But, December 22nd, 2009, was a very big day for the 2010 Yankees. For me it's the day that they became the favorites to win the 2010 World Series.
Catchy, isn't it? No? You're right, it'll never take off, Adrian Beltre doesn't hit home runs.
File this as "asleep at the wheel," but I just learned that the Red Sox and Adrian Beltre agreed to a deal. According to Peter Gammons, the deal is for 1 year at $9mm with a player option in 2011 for $5mm. Wow, rumor had it Beltre was looking for a multi year, $13mm or so per year, or make that Scott Boras was looking for...
Analysis, this deal greatly improves the Red Sox defense and allows Kevin Youkilis to stay at first base. Casey Kotchman has once again been relegated to the bench. Beltre didn't hit at all in 2009 hence the one-year deal. He must think he will do very well in 2010. Or, maybe he is finished and this, and the 2011 option are just gravy on an already lucrative career. My hope is for the former, but the cynic in me thinks its the latter.
His offense has only been really good in one season. In 2004 he had a 1.017 OPS vs. his career OPS of .779. Hmmm, how did that happen? Regardless of how that happened, he parlayed that into a mega deal with Seattle. Seattle plays in a hitter non-friendly park and one could argue Beltre's numbers didn't look good there because no one does well there...except Ichiro.
So the Red Sox have signed a defensive wiz and a questionable offensive talent, but have limited their risk to 2 years and $14mm. Not terrible. This just puts an exclamation point next to their off-season plans of reducing runs allowed. It'll be interesting to see the ERAs of the pitching staff as you have to consider the following:
Player: UZR 2009/2009 rank at position in Majors:
3rd - Beltre: 21.00/1st vs. Lowell: -14.4/last, if included in qualifying list
cf - Cameron: 10.3/4th vs. Ellsbury -18.3/4th worst (I'm not sure what to make of Ellsbury's rating, these numbers and what I see with my eyes tell 2 different stories. I'm sure Ellsbury wasn't perfect, but 4th worst? Tough for me to understand).
ss - Scutaro: 1.0/14th vs. Red Sox SS team total in 2009 of 3.1/12th in baseball (Alex Gonzalez was a 10.5)
I'd do an Ellsbury vs. Bay report in left, but Ellsbury didn't play an inning there in 2009, so I'll not do so.
No matter, it looks like this signing is the biggest net improvement defensively thus far and the Cameron signing is 2nd. The Scutaro signing, is actually a net loss defensively, but I still prefer him there vs. Alex Gonzalez given the offensive upside.
Other news out suggests the Red Sox and Mets are talking about a Mike Lowell for Luis Castillo deal. Basically a swap of contracts I would suspect. Castillo is due $6mm in both 2010 and 2011. Lowell really has no role here in 2010 and the Red Sox would be best shipping him sooner than later. Lowell has been a good soldier, but his time has passed.