Categories

« So Many Options | Main | Jeter's Not A Bad Choice »

Which Pitcher Do You Pick?

Two pitchers to choose from, here are their stats over the last five years

Pitcher A: 69-38 3.49ERA 989 IP 837K's 282 BB's

Pitcher B: 57-44 3.78ERA 850IP 836K's 308 BB's

They are both the same age, so it is pretty close.  Pitcher A has been more durable, but pitcher B has better striekout rates.  Then again, Pitcher B is more wild as well.  

Well let's unmask our two participants.  Pitcher B, you already have, he is AJ Burnett.  Pitcher A is therefore John Lackey.  

Lackey is a year younger than Burnett so the Yankees would be signing him at roughly the same point age-wise, they signed AJ.   Now any agent worth his salt is going to use these numbers as a comparison, which means Lackey is probably going to go for $16.5 million a season and 5 years- just like AJ. 

I never liked the AJ signing, it seemed like too much money for too many questions.  I would feel better about spending that same amount on Lackey and it gives you a very solid 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation. Add in Pettitte and you have the pitching to match pretty much anyone. 

From a payroll standpoint you have to assume the Yankees want to keep the payroll where it is or lower it.  They are subtracting around $44 million assuming they non-tender Wang.  But, players like Sabathia get a raise this year, so around $14 million of that is already spoken for and they will have arbitration choices with guys like Melky and Bruney that will also go to that savings.  Let's say when all is said and done you have about $27 million to spend total- do you commit over half of that to Lackey? 

Comments

His salary would be about a third, of whats coming off..Would rather have lackey at 15 mil for several years or Andy at 10 mil for one?? also it would be a major chess move for us to get him from rivals,lets say AJ or pettitte break down or have very off year, we will be eating our elbows again saying , like this year in july what do we do now ...he provides against that and surely a devastating rotation in the playoffs..what if Redsox take him..lester lackey beckett bucholtz dicek.. I rather spen it now than regret later..we will regret,IT IS ONLY MONEY.. still keeps us under mendoza price tag. that will allow us to keep hughes in the pen, i would not tinker with it bring all of them back.

Just to shed a little light..Nady, Molina , Wang ..equals Lackey..No brainer..# roster spots to 1, at the same cost..

Just to shed a little light..Nady, Molina , Wang ..equals Lackey..No brainer..# roster spots to 1, at the same cost..

Boras wants 3 to 4 years for damon and 13to 15mil per.. SOOOO long johnnnny..lackey is looking even better thats now just damons asking price,melky plays left Ajax plays CF.

Peter.

Very hard question you've posed about Lackey. One hand he's a proven quality pitcher, other hand we've got Joba, Hughes and Ike banging on the door with some pretty good stuff demanding to be given a chance. There are other names working up to an appearance in the forseeable future but we can pass on that discussion but I have to at least mention Robertson and Dunn as guys I am curious about for our future as well as Mitre.

And we cant forget that Doc is lurking around for discussion.

OK. The question is about Lackey. Were I Cashman would I ask the brothers for some money to go get him? Probably not yet. I would try to build something with CC, AJ, Joba, Andy and either Hughes or Ike and hope that CMW can be retained and give us 10 wins starting July so Hughes can be limited.

I know I'm being too frugal here and I know I am counting on too many things to fall just right. But I would probably pass on a big bucks long term Lackey deal.

I'd want to have some dry powder for an OF bat plus mid season salary dumps.


- sent from mobile device

BWP- That's Boras being Boras. Remember before the Yankees signed him he was talking about a seven-year deal and saying most of the same things. I would be surprised if he got more time or money than Abreu just did (2 years/$19 mil)

Mitchell- I keep going back and forth. Very hard call.

Peter, we mentioned that the other day , [abreu #s] moreno raised the bar, you are right NOBODY will give damon his wild demands.he will come down to those #s.That means holliday and Bay fit the same $s? what do you think

Guys? Boras comes from the "blush" school of negotiations - that's where you say the absolute biggest number you can say that doesn't cause you to "blush" from embarassment about how much of an ass you just sounded like. ;-)

Fraid not BWP- those guys are five years younger and better hitters. I don't think Boras gets anywhere near his "blush #" (great term Mitchell) on Holliday (I saw today he was comparing him to Teixeira so 8/$180) but I could see them both around 6/$100. That's why I hope the Yankees stay away.

No way those guys get TEX $s.. Holliday can't in in the AL, so he limited options and bay what did hit .260? he will stay with bosox at 15mil..3years holliday also had puljos behind him... teams will look at that i see the giants in the mix..

OK, I think I'll ask an even harder question than the Lackey question: Wang, yes or no - and if yes, how do you try to bring him back?

Wang seems like a walking shoulder injury which injury, like a perennial, blossoms in the warm sunshine. When his sinker sinks, it's a beautiful thing in a HR park like The Stadium. When his sinker doesn't, he's a stinker.

OK, so do we tender the guy an arbtrated offer to pitch starting (hopefully) in July? Do we decline the arbitration and then offer him lower $ (and possibly let him move elsewhere). Or do we simply say farewell this winter. Were I Cashman, I would tell the brothers to decline arbitration and offer CWM an incentive-heavy deal with annual options. If he stays and performs, great for his wallet and our team; if he fails, we save some money and move forward from there.

I think CMW is one of the earliest issues to resolve before we can have some clarity about pitching for 2010 and beyond.


Mitchell I feel we should look to take him back at a cheap rate, send him down until he can prove he could pitch[Brackman] but not think of him as a guy in our starting five this year, if he comes around great, just like when you play a number, you don't expect to win and hope to pay your bills with.also to say we have Gaudin, mitre, joba hughes, pettitte,aceves,to fill in our 3 4 5 guys is very risky.for my money joba hughes aceves stay in the pen, and use joba as a trade chip for one solid move. i think joba has issues, get lackey he is free as per what is coming off. it is a great move..also kennedy is about to try to prove himself again, if joba starts i think he flops big time...

Mitchell- I ditto your approach. No way you can tender him a deal and if he doesn't accept an incentive-heavy deal, best of luck to him. The problem with Wang is when the sinker doesn't sink he is sunk.

No question. You either sign Lackey or deal for Halladay; the former is a lot cheaper.

If the Yankees want to win the World Series 2 or 3 more times before A Rod and Jeter turn 40, they need pitching. That's what we learned from 2002 to 2008.

There's no way they can win it without another front line starter. This three-starter trick ain't going to work every year. Plus, even going with a big three, you have to be ready to replace Pettite, who is getting older and wants to retire soon.

Corey I am with you 100%,Halla day cost you players and would have to give him a huge pay increase. so lackey comes as just a dollar issue..Doc is up next year i believe..

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

$MTCommentChallenge$

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.yankeesredsox.com/blog-mt/mt-tb.fcgi/1104


Hosting by Yahoo!