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We've Been Here Before

Let's see, the Blue Jays have an ace pitcher and the Yankees may be in the trade market for one.  This has a familiar feel to it...oh that's right it's happened twice before- Roger Clemens and David Cone.  In 1995, the Yankees traded for Cone in the midst of a pennant race.  In 1999, they traded for Clemens at the start of spring training.  Both trades are good barometers of what it might cost to land Roy Halladay in 2009. 

The Yankees made a trade for Cone on July 28, 1995, sending three minor league pitchers to Toronto for Cone.  Cone was two months from free agency and was coming off a Cy Young-winning season in 1994.  It turned out to be one of the best trades in Yankees' history as Cone went 9-2 and pitched the Yankees into the playoffs.  The three pitchers they surrendered were at AA and lower at the time and combined to win only 6 games in the majors over the course of their careers. 

In February 1999 the Yankees traded for Roger Clemens, sending David Wells, Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush to Toronto.  Clemens was coming off of the 1998 Cy Young, but Wells had pitched very well in 1998 as well, going 18-4 with a 3.49 ERA.   Lloyd you may remember as the Damaso Marte of his time.  He had a rough transition to New York, but became a hero in the 1996 playoffs and settled into a productive role in the bullpen after that.  Bush, who came to the Yankees in the Hideki Irabu trade, was somewhat like Freddy Guzman all speed and no bat.  Clemens was two years from free agency at the time of the trade.

So, Halladay would probably fall somewhere in between these two trades.  He is not as close to free agency as Cone was, but he is closer than Clemens was.  Extrapolating from those two trades, the Yankees shouldn't have to give up a pitcher of the same quality as Wells, but they would need to give up better prospects than they did for Cone. Translate that into today and I would think a package of Joba or Hughes, Melancon and another lower-level arm would be about right.  That's a trade I wouldn't make with Lackey available on the free agent market because once you trade for Halliday you are going to have to give him a huge deal as a contract extension.  Now, if Lackey goes elsewhere, the Yankees need to give Halliday a long look. 

Comments

Yep, if I had to choose between Lackey and Doc + prospects, I would also go for Lackey.

But ... were I Hal? I would pass on both deals until I saw what Andy wanted to do ... then decide. At some point, we have to let the kids get started cause if we pay $15MM to every position player and pitcher, it would "bust da bank".

But I do wonder what it would take to pick up Josh Johnson?

Duchscherer? I suspect he might melt inder the NY spotlight unless he had REALLY good meds. And I really do hope they take an inexpensive, incentive-laden flyer on Ben Sheets.

Decisions, decisions ...

Mitchell

I wonder the same thing about Johnson, but I also wonder if he is another Javier Vazquez....

Yeah, I can see worrying about that. His record shows flashes of fine pitching and his numbers are all (BAA, ERA, WHIP) trending in the right direction - 2007 being the exception. And then there's the AL vs NL translation to do, but if the price is right and the stability and durability are there, he might be a decent SP every 5 says. Hate that word, "if", sometimes ... :-)

Here's why I am scared by Johnson. In 2003 Vazquez allowed 1.1 homers per nine 2.2 walks per nine and struck out 9.4 per nine all while allowing a .282 BABIP

Johnson's numbers in those categories for 2009 are 0.6/2.5/8.2 and .296

So, he keeps the ball in the park more, walks more, strikes out less and was a tad less lucky than Vazquez.

Add in the NL to AL transition and the whole playing in New York thing and I wouldn't give up anything close to what Florida would want for him. (Now, if FLA wants Cervelli and Melancon, I make the trade, but think about what the Yankees gave up for Vazquez- I wouldn't do that again)

Yeah, I hear you Peter but here's what I'm thinking. Johnson is a young kid who is probably getting stronger and, more importantly, smarter - I hope. I like his WHIP numbers a lot - yep, I'm a bit biased about that being "my number" for gauging pitchers but it clarifies things for my sometimes simple "pitcher's mind".

About what it would cost? Couldn't agree with you more that the deal doesn't even warrant a return phone call if they want more some AAA players (not Ajax or Montero) or a loose "part" or two, like Melky or Cervelli or Gardner.

The unquantifiable is the "deer in the headlights" factor. Javier lost it the moment he heard 40,000+ fans making noise - Johnson might be one of those guys who gets pumped and focused on the big stage.

We're really just talking about a middle of the rotation kind of pitcher so I certainly wouldn't think of throwing any valuable chips on the table to bet on him.

Actually? On second thought, I'd prefer to hang on to Cerveli ... (sigh)

An 1.158 WHIP is great, but Vazquez had an 1.105 in 2003. Javier was 27 when he came to NYC, Josh would be 26 and I think Vazquez was a better pitcher in 2003 than Johnson is in 2009. I loved, LOVED the Vazquez trade because I thought the Yankees were getting a young pitching stud, but it didn't work out.

Maybe that and other moves burned me too much, but I just don't trust the NL. Think about the last 7 years or so: Vazquez, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, Kyle Farnsworth...all of them were NL guys before they came to NY.

That's why I like spending the money on Lackey more than most choices.

Yep, you make a lot of sense about all those studs/duds that have come through The Bronx.

Maybe it's the pressure from the fans, the viciousness of the media muffins or the water (LOL) - but many, many players wilted under the NY Spotlight and wound up much happier elsewhere. Or maybe Cash was just getting the guys George told him to get due to George's whims. Or maybe it was the George influence, in general: he was a Class A meddler and a vocal/harsh putz to his players and coaches. Who knows, maybe the Hal/Cash/Girardi years can erase those stains. They're certainly off to a nice start and the players all seem to be smiling and enjoy playing together as team. That was a huge difference in 09.

That's a good point, George was a real jerk and fear of the "Columbus Shuttle" and other things (Mr May) may have contributed to that.

I would also add that Torre may not have helped in that case. As we learned from watching him and his book this spring reinforced- if you weren't his "guy" watch out.

I think you guys are missing an opportunity...

you have a weakness at DH, move Posada to DH and go after Joe Mauer early. You have a weakness in LF - go after Holliday, just money after all. You have a weakness in CF until your savior Action Jackson shows up, go after Sizemore, Granderson, or Crawford. You are a little weak in RF, go after Ichiro or Ryan Braun.

You are right, starting rotation needs some help, get Halliday AND Lackey, why not? And if Pettitte doesn't come back as your 5th starter then also go for Lincecum, he could be your #5.

With the re-established fan base world wide why not spend to support all that merchandise going out the door? First team over $300m, just a matter of when...


Happy Thanksgiving weekend, hope you enjoy your shopping season as much as Hal and Cash do... :)

BL- I had almost forgotten what "angry and bitter Red Sox fans" looked like, but it's nice to see that they are coming back. It means the Yankees are doing something right.

You're right about Torre, Peter - he Quantrilled so many good arms - seemingly so he could stay on Georgie's "Win Now" good side. Sad, sorta.

And sad to see what's happened to George, but aging is rarely done gracefully and even the giants among us succumb to it in all of its ugliness.

But, "fog happens" as the saying goes around Sheepshead Bay. :-)

neither angry or bitter Peter, just envious of the bottomless pit I guess. Honestly, they could acquire all those I mentioned if they wanted, everybody already blames them for everything so why not?

Mitchell- "Quantrilled" is the right word. I also feel bad about what has happened to George I only hope he can live out his later years in private. He did not behave well in his prime, but no one deserves to die in the public eye.

BL- In my experience Red Sox fans attack the Yankees spending when the Yankees win and mock it when the Yankees lose. Before 2004 it was all about how the Yankees had more resources. From 2004-2008 it was about how the Yankees were stupid with those resources. Now we are back to the more resources argument.


That is the cards you are dealt. You shouldn't anthologize for it, nor should the Yankees. As long as baseball lets them, the Sox, the Mets and any other teams that want to pony up they should go for it.

My comments were more around hypothetical "why not" scenario of spending.

All-in, I wonder what the bottom line looks like for these franchises. Radio/TV networks, merchandise, etc.

Would love to see all teams done by truly independent resources and with revenue sharing etc. included as well. The small market teams that refuse to spend the monies given them by the "sharing" probably are turning profits at the expense of their fans.

Domination by teams that spend significantly more isn't good overall, although as long as no rules prohibit that from happening I am glad I am a fan of one of the teams that spends.

BL-

Here's my counterpoint.

Take the 00's (whatever we call this decade)

We have had World Series of:

Yankees-Mets
Yankees-D'Backs
Angels-Giants
Yankees-Marlins
Red Sox-Cards
White Sox-Astros
Cardinals-Tigers
Red Sox-Rockies
Rays-Phillies
Yankees-Phillies

20 possible slots, 15 different teams. In fact, by my count, only seven teams: Baltimore, Cinci, KC, Pittsburgh, Texas, Toronto and Washington failed to qualify for the playoffs in the decade. I think that is a pretty good balance.

what are the avg wins per season for the 14 (I think you mis-counted) teams, they probably can be lumped into buckets of :

a) perennial winners (Yankees/Angels/Sox)

b) mostly winners (Mets/Cards/Phillies)

c) every so often winners(DBacks/WhiteSox/Rockies)

d) lightning in a bottle (Giants/Marlins/Astros/Tigers/Rays)


good balance? Don't know if I agree with you on that. Besides the bottom dwellers you mention that haven't seen the postseason in the 00's there are teams that have made the postseason but not the series (14+7-30=9), so of the 30 teams,

7 haven't made the playoffs
9 have but haven't made the series
5 have made the series (lightning)
3 have and are kinda ok
3 are good and close to being perennial winners
3 have been somewhat dominant perennial winners


management of each team plays the 2nd biggest part in success behind financial ability. Many of the bottom dwellers have bad management too to go along with no finances.

Lucky we (collectively on this site) root for teams that can and are competitive year in year out, right?

Peter was born and raised outside of kansas City Missouri and Andy was born and raised in Baltimore. After meeting in college, they formed a great website where they discuss the bitterness of being fans of two of the most struggling franchises in baseball..."royalsorioles dot com". Often posts evolve to the heart of their debates, over which city has the better barbeque...sometimes visitors (trolls) come in to brag about their big market teams, some guy named Mitchell often beats down Peter and Andy with fun facts about how the Yankee coaches make more than some of the 25 man rosters of the Royals and Orioles. Of course for every Mitchell that shows up there are plenty of Blmeanies also bragging about how elite the Sox and their fans are and how with only the Yankees to compare to, that they could buy any Royal/Oriole player as soon as arbitration starts to elevate their salary...


before last paragraph was supposed to have a bracketed note that it was a dream sequence [dream sequence] and after the last paragraph was supposed to say dream sequence over [dream sequence over]

sorry, it deleted it for some reason

BL? You're truly full of crap when you say you're not bitter or angry. LOL. You can twist or turn the words any way you like but you're wearing your frustrations out on your sleeve - in Dayglo colors.

bitter and angry the Sox didn't win, yeah, duh, but bitter and angry that the Yankees won, not in the sense that I would imagine them not worthy. Would have to be stupid to not recognize the collection of talent. Like I said somewhere in the previous posts, I'll admit it, envious is the word I would use. Envious of the freedom to get the players you need. Did you go hire a bunch of band aids last off season? Nope. Sox did and the gamble backfired big time.

I AM bitter and angry that you don't have the likes of Pavano, Giambi, and Sheff any more. Sure, I'll dislike A-Rod and Joba but for more dumb signings I will have to wait until A-Rods and Texiera's (and maybe Jeter's next deal) deals all are just waisted money like peeing in the wind. The escalation game they have played with some of the signings will be interesting, of course, it won't handcuff them at all short of a financial meltdown (further) in this country.

Fair enough, Bluedude.

I think that what finally happened was that Cashman got the brothers to get George OUT OF THE SELECTION PROCESSES and let younger, cooler heads prevail. And I put Torre on the list of older, hotter heads that had to go. That's the only real difference. Most, if not all, those duds you mentioned where "go-sign-em" tasks given to Cashmoney by the old man. Now that he's out of the picture and there's no CBS ownership - talk about ugly, lean, rudderless times - life is better for the Evil Empire.

In baseball, size (of market, stadium, municipal budget, etc.) matters. Hey, it's capitalism at its best and worst, like it or not. Capitalism's been pretty good to me so I can't knock it - you wanna do so, that's your call ...


capitalism? nah, capitalism is when there is profit to be had. Being a fan unfortunately can't get you cash. I like capitalism just fine.

these Redsox fans are really something!!!!they are always crying about how much we spend or Arod and nonsense like that , how did they win 2 WS , ???we all know it was from talent that was imported.. I don't see a problem with that.. lets see who went after Arod first? who went after Tex first, how much do they pay drew? or paid lugo , or lowell..hey what about gagne... how or why don't they like Joba???? Oh We finally had a guy who would scare them off the plate, but we should forget about how many times jeter ,arod giambi got hit in all the years,this is just sour grapes from guys who did not land the talent and we did.. would any yankee fan belly ache if they landed arod first??? never..sox fans you should put your beefs in as to why they have not signed lackey yet.. history may repeat you guys drive him to the dance and we will dance with him .just like the rest.. red sox fans and mets fans are one in the same ..always were and always will be anti yankee, any other team can win it all , you won't hear boo, but the hatred that spews when we win is just as much a feeling to them as when they win it all..and you can keep papelbum.. we won't take him for a free contract..so he can dream on/...Boy was i so happy when varitek give me my $s and and that 25th spot on the roster.. he will be under mendoza's skirt all year long.. CAPTAIN GREED..

First off Bornwithpinstripes, you need not refer to blmeanie as "these Redsox fans are something." First off, he is one person, not many and, best I can tell, the only Red Sox fan that has commented on this post until now.

Secondly, you need to at least give him credit for keeping it civil and thoughtful. Whether or not you agree with him is your right.

He isn't "spewing hatred" either, just opinion. The word hate never came up nor would I expect it to with blmeanie.

I understand why blmeanie is on the defensive here, the comments towards him of being bitter and angry are a bit out of line, but probably made in good fun.

The fact is the Yankees won and whether you believe it was pure skill by the front office in "dancing witht he girl" Boston brought to the dance, perhaps. Or perhaps it is a combination of resources and skill but to mock blmeanie's idea that the Yankees will walk away this off-season with Lackey, Halliday and Lincecum (and others he mentioned) isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Consider last off-season, the Yankees walked away with the best pitcher, the best positional player and then the 2nd best pitcher on the free agent market. The top 3 free agents. I'm not saying it isn't fair, but it is the truth, isn't it?

Now I doubt they could actually acquire top players via trade, as no team has enough chips to land more than 1...maybe 2 top players in mega trades before the farm system/young mlb ready players is/are tapped, so that isn't realistic but from a free agency standpoint, nothing is impossible. Don't cry for the Red Sox, they have resources too, and certainly have spent money (some good, some foolishly), but I can't think of any baseball person (analyst, reporter, blogger) who would think the Red Sox could go out and sign the top 3 free agents in the 2008-2009 off-season.

So don't completely slam blmeanie when he suggests the acquisition of top talent by the Yankees. They've done it before and I have to assume they'll do it again, but probably in a more spread-out fashion rather than in one off-season.

At this point I am rambling and should just finish.

Andy your second first off, would be your second off, not your first off twice... I don,t count how many sox fans are on this site, it was inclusive of sox fans everywhere.. seems to me like you think you can scold people behind a key board, which i get a laugh out of.. lay off the expresso your to tight.. his post was pointed and sarcastic, no doubt. but he surely has a right to express his frustration with a champion organization and yankee team . I understand.. but everything I said was true about Sox and met fans , i have never heard a met or sox fan say I'm rooting for the yanks in the playoffs, they are always bitter..maybe you know some not I . and they do have the resources to get 3 top players, what makes you think they don't??/ Remember schilling?/ Dice K they gave 50 million just to talk to him!!! what standard did they set for MLB.. that is lunacy . but yankee fans didn't cry about that, we went and gave igawa 20 million after sox set the bar.. so thats what i mean , they cry about what the yanks do but refuse to see the same guy in the mirror, met front office also.. we didn't make them trade ryan for fregosi, or get bonilla, big flop mo.. big flop after big flop, they to wanted arod but lost out to the yanks remember texas picked up ten Mil of Arods contract.. the yankees did not set that bar texas did, but we got him , so we are the bullies who buy everyone.. same old sour grapes.. childish.. but i get a kick out of it.. who has the biggest crowds on the road??? The mets , Sox Kc . baseball needs the yankees , remember they made movies and plays about us going way back before boss george.. It's ALWAYS DAME YANKEES> but thanks Andy for getting me motivated.. look at our 09 roster we had an nice amount of talent from within. boy I'm so happy captain varitek loves being a redsox. he is closing out his stay as a red sox legend, staying around when he can't play anymore just to rob his 3 mil salary with a lot of class, team first CAPT. NAh redsox fans would never do it for the $ , just everyone else in baseball

Andy

Lincecum? Seriously?

Peter, no, obviously not Lincecum. If you came away after reading my comment thinking I really thought the Yankees or any team could trade for Lincecum, well then you must think I'm an idiot.

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