"We Have To Get Younger"
That's what Brian Cashman said on the radio the other day in discussing his plans for next year and he is absolutely right. There are some obvious moves to achieve this and some tough ones. In our 2010 planning, let's start with the Yankees who will become free agents and what they should do with each one. By my count, the Yankees have seven potential free agents: Pettitte, Damon, Matsui, Hinske, Hairston, Molina and Nady.
Start with Pettitte, who gave the Yankees 194 innings with a 4.16 ERA in 2009. If Andy wants to come back, and I am not sure he does, the Yankees should definitely offer him another one-year deal. Pettitte sounded like he was on the fence after the World Series, recognizing that this would be a pretty good way to end a career. But, he also sounded like someone who still had the fire to pitch. Ultimately, I think it comes down to his family and what they want. With Pettitte, the Yankees have three definite starters in 2010 (I am not counting Joba right now) so the Yankees should lure him back. By my math, he ended up with $10.5 million for his efforts in 2010, a similar one-year deal, maybe $8 million base and incentives, seems about right.
Molina and Hairston are players the Yankees could easily let go and get younger. Molina is a great catcher, but a lousy hitter. While Cervelli isn't a good hitter either, he is a pretty good catcher, is only 23 and costs a lot less. Swapping him for Molina seems like a no-brainer.
The Yankees have Pena, who is a reasonable facsimile to Hairston. Pena is a great glove and he has started to learn the outfield spots. He is much younger and again cheaper, it seems like another no-brainer to choose him over Hairston.
Eric Hinske had some big hits for the Yankees and he actually hit lefties well in 2009, something he had not done well in his career. He can play the corners of the infield and the outfield, so if he would take one year and $1 million or so, I would bring him back.
And that brings us to the final three players, Damon, Matsui and Nady. I love Matsui, he is a great player and he certainly rises to the occasion as he showed this week, but you simply can't bring him back. Matsui can't run and he can't play the field. His knees are a major liability and the Yankees would be wise to part ways with him now.
Part of the reason you have to say goodbye to Matsui is the need to free up the DH slot in 2010. Posada is going to see some games there, A-Rod, Jeter should as well. But one guy who should spend a fair amount of time there, if he comes back, is Johnny Damon. There were two instances in the playoffs that really highlighted where Damon is as a player. The first was the throw he made from shallow leftfield against the Angels that wasn't even close to getting the runner. The second was the AB against Brad Lidge in Game 4 and the steals of 2nd and 3rd. Damon is not someone you want to see in the outfield on a regular basis, but he is still a dangerous hitter and runner. His bat is good enough that you could put him at DH without any problems. I would offer him arbitration and hope you can bring hm back for one more year where you put him in left when you want to DH some of the older guys and DH him the rest of the time.
Along with that move, I would offer Xavier Nady an incentive-based deal to come back and play left field fairly regularly next year. Nady is not a star, but his career rates of .280/.335/.458 are right in line with the average AL leftfielder (.267/.338/.442) He is a solid defender and the Yankees could give him a one-year deal with incentives that would also give him the chance to reestablish his value as a free agent. He is about to turn 31, so he is young enough that you aren't taking a big risk bringing him back for a season.
Now some people will argue the Yankees should sign Bay or Holliday, but I disagree. Those guys are going to require huge deals and they will both be over 30 when the season starts. The Yankees should bid up the prices, but leave them for other teams to scoop up. Besides, if the Yankees are going to bid on a free agent, I want a pitcher, but we will get to that.
Bringing back Nady and Damon allows you to keep Austin Jackson in the minors as well. Jackson had a solid year in Scranton, but he didn't hit for power. (.405 slugging) That would translate to an abysmal slugging in the majors and he needs to show some power before you can consider putting him in the everyday big league lineup.
So, bring back Damon, Nady, Hinske and Pettitte if they all agree to one-year deals and say good-bye to Matsui, Molina and Hairston. You get a bit younger, subtracting while retaining flexibility for later years.
Comments
Peter, great subject... I know I will catch flack with my opinion. but I will put it out.. Sign lackey...keep gaudin, offer, pettitte one year 5mil..nady, molina hairston, matsui, damon offer abreu money 5.6. mil.. if not we save 40 mil..trade for markakis, joba , kennedy, swisher,he hits great in balt..and if they push find another guy. we can play with damon, melky, gardner,jackson for left and center, with a guy who plays right field great 'canon arm'.bats behind arod, we also have montero who is maybe a year or less away either we find out what jackson has or move on..right now we have by far the worst outfield in baseball..hard to say after winning WS.but true. we will get two picks each for the guys let go , would i be right? would any one consider figgins as an fill in left an in field?just a thought with these moves , probably a 20 mil save besides
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 7, 2009 10:57 PM |
BWP-
I don't follow, sign Lackey and keep Gaudin and Pettitte while letting Nady, Matsui, Damon, Hairston and Molina go? Also, don't forget that Abreu just got two years and $19 million from the Angels.
Then send Joba, Kennedy and Swisher to Baltimore for Markakis?
Clarify those points and I can comment on them. As for the rest, I totally disagree on the worst outfield in baseball, it can be improved, but it is not the worst. You never liked Swisher so we probably won't find a way to agree on that.
We probably won't get two picks for most of the guys you mentioned because they aren't Type A free agents.
Figgins had a .393 slugging, do you really want to spend money for him and where would you play him considering he has been mostly a third baseman these past few years?
Posted by: Peter
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November 7, 2009 11:51 PM
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Hi Peter.. We also forgot about Wang,CC , AJ , Lackey, gives us the first 3,We have the other guys to fill the last 2 spots, Hughes stays as 8th inn. guy. Pen is great ,also have arms coming up.Damon has been fragile. he gets a bump ,and is hurt..also he stinks, out their, he is now a dh..if we get him cheap ,o.k.watch how that dog abreu plays now that he got 2 more years..they over paid.... the trade is probably a fantasy. but that kid is perfect for yankee stadium..canon arm, and a TEX, type approach to the game.behind arod, offers protection.Posada is going to protect, arod for the next 2 years, ? our out field play is brutal,I cringe when a ball is hit to RF. or Lf. And swisher i posted about a week ago ,that I didn't give him enough time, and was wrong.at the time he was hitting 220 ,230s my outfield would be Ajax, CF , Melky LF. Markakis RF..I feel Ajax is ready..give him april, may,, everyday, see how he does. now lets see how many guys run on us.. or trot home..we tried many guys. bubba crosby, et.al.Oh what teams are worse? Swisher also brought a loose feel to the club, which can,t be put on paper , it worked. I retreat on figgins, at a 6mil plus price. that was an option if no trade or damon..molina ,spells cervelli.gaudin is real cheap 2mil?wang is a disable list waiting to happen, andy as a # five, at a deal laden with incentives. i think bruney is up too. he would be a must have back. if we total., salaries, damon, pettitte matsui, ,nady molina, wang,hairston,hinskeswisher. thats 50mil to tinker with , either by letting go or scaling back and keeping, you take on lackeys salary, give him AJ dollars, he will come. also keeps lackey away from rivals..tough kid , big game guy.. great topic..
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 8, 2009 08:22 AM |
also NO holliday , we seen how he hits AL pitchers, And no bay. Let him stay in boston for 15mil a year..just pitch him up and in and slow away..
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 8, 2009 08:25 AM |
Matsui? Love the guy's bat, but his knees are a complete mess. Parting company makes sense, but we have to replace his production at the plate.
Keeping Damon for a year makes sense, if we can get past Boras' act.
Pena for Hairston? OK.
Cervelli for Molina? Sure.
One year deal to Andy? Yep.
If we bring Nady back, which I agree we should do, then you've got Gardner, Melky, Swisher, Hinske & Nady plus (sometimes) Damon in the OF - that last move (Damon actually taking the field) being a mistake. Seems more than a bit crowded. I view Melky, Gardner and Hinske as being expendable if someone better comes along - like Crawford, of course, if the Rays decline his big option to economize. Or Marlon Byrd, if no one snaps him up beforehand.
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 8, 2009 10:41 AM
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They don't "have to get younger"; they have to get better. That means pitching first and foremost; everything else is just the details.
I would definitely do everything to sign Lackey. He is mentally strong and has terrific stuff; though he was injured this past year, it looks like he is still physically strong.
I think you will have to assume that Pettite will agonize a bit and may not come back at all, though you obviously have to offer him a deal and have a Plan B in place. That makes it doubly necessary to sign Lackey.
If Pettite signs and they get Lackey, they have a championship team, with a bunch of options at the 5th starter position.
Signing Damon is a no-brainer, as is letting go Molina, Hairston, and Hinske. I also like signing Nady. He would be a lot less expensive that Jason Bay and I don't think that Bay is much better. The big issue is Matsui.
The only available DH better than Matsui is Guerrero, who also has bum knees. The guy is just too good. You have to sign him, hopefully to just a 2 year deal.
2 years from now is when you replace Damon and Matsui, hopefully with young players who have blossomed (Garder/Jackson) or else with free agents that become available. It's a pretty lean class of free agents right now.
If you have 5 outfielders -- Damon, Cabrera, Swisher, Nady, Gardner -- who sits? Gardner is on the bench a lot (and even some of the season in AAA). Damon takes a number of days off. Cabrera will sit more than this year, with Swisher or Nady playing center field sometimes. It's an awfully deep team and Girardi will be challenged to give everyone enough playing time.
The only reason to let Matsui go is salary concerns, which are, of course, quite real if you have to sign Lackey. But Damon and Matsui will have to take less than what they are making now. If they don't, one of them will have to go, and it would probably be Matsui.
Posted by: Corey | November 8, 2009 11:42 AM |
crawford would be great, put him behind jeter. also Mitchell ,Ajax how long could we keep him in AAA. I would give him a real shot, he does everything well.. what about pitchers,
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 8, 2009 11:55 AM |
OK, so I know that it takes pitchers a good 15-18 months to recover strength AND control after TJ surgery - but what about outfielders who may throw 10 times a game? Will Nady be in decent shape at the plate and in the OF come April? Any one know what the real recovery projections are for OFers, esp. at the plate?
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 8, 2009 03:42 PM
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crawford stays a ray..
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 9, 2009 05:34 PM |
Ah well, Carl Crawford is off the market (sigh).
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091109&content_id=7642970&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 9, 2009 08:33 PM
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Mitchell-
We can use Nady himself as an example, he had the same operation in 2001.
I don't know the date of the operation, but he played 137 games in 2001 meaning it could not have come before August. He then played 130 games in 2002, which means he must have started playing by May 1st.
One significant thing to note is he only played 55 games in the field, so he was DHing a lot, maybe they were being cautious, he was a prospect, but maybe he couldn't play the field.
I conclude that he would be a realistic option for April 1st (he had the surgery at least three weeks earlier in 2009 than he did in 2001) but he might not be able to play the field right away. Then again, putting him in left will cut down on the distance of his throws. I still say go for it.
Posted by: Peter
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November 10, 2009 01:28 PM
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And that makes Crawford and Mauer potential 2011 FA's. All the more reason to go easy on offense this offseason.
Posted by: Peter
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November 10, 2009 01:29 PM
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Yep, if Nady can be retained for incentives, yep. But the fact that this is his 2nd surgery for the same thing concerns me greatly. Incentives !
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 10, 2009 08:13 PM
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