The 2010 Rotation
Heading into the offseason we know who the top-2 pitchers in the Yankees rotation will be, but little beyond that. Will Andy Pettitte come back? Probably, but it's not a definite. Will Joba be in the rotation? I believe so, but I also think the Yankees won't keep him there for long if he pitches like he did in August-October. What are they going to do with Phil Hughes? That's a bit trickier because Hughes only pitched 105 innings in 2009 and even less that that in 2008. If he was a fulltime starter, the chances are we would see the "Hughes Rules" in effect in 2010.
So, I think the sensible thing is to go and get another starter, even if Pettitte returns. I do not advocate trading for Roy Halladay. He is a wonderful pitcher, but the price will still be steep and when you factor in the contract extension you would need to give him, I would rather sign Lackey. But, the Yankees may not think Lackey is a great investment. I am sure they will check in on him, but if the price is steep they will probably pass.
One way that the Yankees could go is ot sign Ben Sheets. You could probably get Sheets on a one-year deal with a bunch of incentives tied to it. Obviously, he is an injury risk, but Sheets is only 31 and he has been a very effective pitcher in the past. If he pitches up to his normal standards you would have a very good pitcher in the rotation. If he gets hurt, the Yankees have backups in Hughes or Ian Kennedy. (BTW- reports on Kennedy in the AFL were positive.
Another guy who the Yankees might want to consider in the same vein is Randy Wolf. Wolf is a little older and doesn't have the stuff Sheets has, but 214 innings for the Dodgers in 2009. As an added bonus, he is lefthanded.
The Yankees also have some other internal candidates to consider. They declined their option on Sergio Mitre, but they still can offer him arbitration. Chad Gaudin is also under team control in 2010 and I imagine the Yankees offer both of them arbitration. I feel that Gaudin has the higher upside, but Girardi seems to love Mitre. That worries me, but hopefully the Yankees give Girardi enough better options that his affection for Mitre doesn't matter. And of course there is Chien-Ming Wang. I don't see how the Yankees offer him arbitration, but he could be back on a low-base deal. The problem with Wang is that you really don't know when he will be back and what level of performance he will provide when he comes back.
I imagine the Yankees will be patient, which is fine. I just hope they come into 2010 with a new starter from outside the organization.
Comments
Greetings y'all from "somewhere on the road". Peter, if you're going to talk pitching, I gotta throw my nickel into the conversation even if it means typing on this litttle bitty keyboard.
Sheets would be a great pickup, assuming the incentives are there to make him happy if he makes us happy with his results - and I'd also like to see them enforce some options on the guy to keep him around as long as he's healthy and performing in the coming years.
Gaudin has great stuff, only issue is that he's not quite sure where it's going after it leaves his hand. If he could lose about 25 to 35% of the break in exchange for being closer to the catcher's glove, we'd have a 13 game number 5 winner, easy. Easy for me to say, hard for him to do. Where's John Sain to coach these guys when we need him?
Mitre? He should be fully recovered come April, he might be the next CMW, that is, the next king of the ground ball out at The Stadium. And speaking of ground balls: CMW? I suspect he's done as everything seemed to fall apart on him at once - his conditioning and overall athleticism are, to quote my sons, "meh". So I'd be shocked if he returned to form for us - I'd be happy as a pigeon in an In-N-Out parking lot at noon, but shocked.
Joba? Great stuff, dreadful attitude, Runs his mouth more than he should, basically a head case off and on the mound at times. Needs an attitude adjustment - bad! I would swap him for Doc in a NY minute, but that won't ever happen.
Ike? Kid is very, very smart about what it takes to be successful. Assuming health - I think he's a lock to be a really good starter - hopefully for us, hopefully in 2010.
Hughes? Great control - mostly because he throws 4 seamers. Problem is everyone now knows that's what's coming and they slam him around the ballpark. If he finds a 2 seamer or a cutter (or both) and can find a changeup and the confidence to throw these pitches, he's the next wunderkind. I see him starting as well.
Andy? Were I Andy, I would bow out now, go out on top the same way Moose did. 99% of the players don't have that opportunity or miss it. I suspect that he might take this oppty to "go home".
I agree that passing on Doc is the right thing to do this season.
One name you didn't mention Peter was Robertson - kid is good! Maybe the next Mo, maybe he gets a shot at starting. I dunno - but I do know that he's smart on the mound, he pitches and his stuff is top notch.
I STILL am on the fence about Lackey - if forced to pick a path with the guy, I'd still have to pass on him. I'd much rather lay in the weeds for someone like Cliff Lee - but not Beckett.
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 18, 2009 04:46 PM
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Mitchell-
Good stuff and we agree on most of it.
I like Ike (haven't we heard that before?) but I was not impressed with his attitude in 2008, perhaps things changed in 2009 because I didn't hear much about that in his brief stint with the club. I thin he still could be a solid starter for the Yankees and I hope they keep developing him.
You are definitely higher on Mitre than I am, I just don't see enough to get excited about where as on Gaudin I do.
I didn't mention Robertson because I consider him a definite reliever and yes, potentially a very good one.
Posted by: Peter
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November 18, 2009 06:48 PM
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Hi Peter,
Ike is, I agree, a media nightmare. He gets shelled and then says that he really liked some of his pitches and it was no big deal - which makes me, and everyone else, want to throw him in front of a speeding bus. But I think that, unlike Joba, Ike is trainable when it comes to his attitude. Surgery can sometimes mature the brash cockiness right outta some kids.
Mitre? I remember him several years ago when his sinker was sinking - and he was good. Much has happened since then. I'm just hopeful (not confident, hopeful) that the surgery has given him back his strong sinker. If not, buh bye.
Yep - Gaudin has looked pretty darn good at times for us. I think he could do pretty well as a back-end starter.
I think you're probably right about Robertson staying in the pen - but I have seen him baffle some great hitters more than once, so something really good is in that kid. Let him start a game or two in spring training and let's see what's what? Doubt that will happen, but I can at least wish for it. ;-)
Sheets? If he was that good all dinged up, imagine what he might be fully recovered and well rested? We agree - it would be really nice to find out under the right circumstances !
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 18, 2009 07:39 PM
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we need a non 'gamble' third starter , sheets and the rest of the guys you mentioned are nice pieces to figure 4 and five guys.. sign lackey , and wait for the playoffs, do we really want to be in a position to "must get a solid pitcher in june, if sheets ,pettitte, gaudin ian, joba, can take hughes out, he only pitched 90 inn?strong 3 horses,lackey cost us $s, not players, let the red sox play with sheets..
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 18, 2009 10:29 PM |
Can Sheets pitch in the AL?
You can only afford one project on the starting staff. Gaudin, Kennedy, and Mitre will fight it out for the fifth starter position.
Pettite is the fourth starter. If he does not come back, that means Hughes or Joba is in this slot.
So, any way you cut it, they really do have to sign a new pitcher. I'm skeptical about Sheets. I like Lackey. I'd trade for Halladay. One of those three will be here next year.
Posted by: Corey | November 18, 2009 11:19 PM |
I agree with Corey, can sheets pitch well in the AL, Also Doc. comes with a high price. dollars and talent.. wolf ,i believe would fail in the AL
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 19, 2009 07:07 AM |
Hi Guys,
Gonna stir the pot a little bit by asking a pitching-related question: if you had to offer one of our pitchers for Doc, which one would you offer, Hughes or Joba? Forget what you think the Jays would take in the deal, which pitcher would you offer and why?
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 19, 2009 12:00 PM
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Joba goes without question..I want to send him to Balt. for Markakis. Joba does not have his head on right, something happened to the kid..I feel he is just good for an innn. out of the pen. he does not have the stamina to go the distance his velocity is low..Phil is the real deal..look at his presence on the bump, I feel without him coming into that spot at that time, turned the season around, the pen would have been a mess..he handled the job with pride and conviction. but i would not trade for Doc..Lackey for a AJ $s. go get markakis.
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 19, 2009 05:03 PM |
Mitchell: I'd trade Hughes before I'd trade Joba. Joba showed me something down the stretch in 2007 and in the World Series this year. He seems to have a better fastball than Hughes and seems stronger mentally.
Of course, the problem is that the Jays want Hughes and Joba.
Here's a stir-the-pot question for you: At what point do you trade Cano??? His trade value is great right now given his regular season performance. I question his long term value to the team given his lack of mental toughness and defensive lapses.
The upside for Cano is huge, but think of what you could get for him.
Posted by: Corey | November 19, 2009 06:09 PM |
Mitchell- Here is my non-answer, I don't trade for him with Lackey available on the free agent market. When you consider the prospects and dollars involved in a trade for Doc, Lackey makes much more sense to me.
Corey- If the Yankees had an alternative in the minors, I would trade him, but I can't see that they do. So, trading Cano would probably create more problems than it would solve at this point. Plus for all the things we knock him for, .320/.352/.520 from second base is big time production.
Posted by: Peter
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November 19, 2009 06:34 PM
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Corey, do you remember Joba almost was left off the playoff roster??? He was brutal down the stretch..also was bad in the first round..the kid mentally was a mess. i'm sure Peter can show you #s after the all star break that were terrible..Hughes was unhittable and unflappable as a reliever.
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 19, 2009 09:55 PM |
BWP-
That's why I don't want to play this game. Hughes gave up 6 runs in 6-2/3 innings in the playoffs. I don't know who I would rather keep at this point because I can find flaws in both of them.
But, I still believe that both of them have the potential to become top of the rotation guys and I wouldn't give up on either right now unless something amazing was offered to me. (Like your Markakis trade for example)
Posted by: Peter
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November 19, 2009 10:54 PM
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Thanks ! Here's how I'd answer my own question: I would trade Joba before Hughes as I think that Joba is perceived ot be more valuable so he would therefore get us closer to a deal for Doc or someone of his level (think Lee if it's 2011). I also think that Joba is a bit of a prima donna who may never get over his emotional issues. If he does, good! I hope he does it as a Yankee and soon!
On the other hand, I see Hughes as 1) currently under-valued and 2) a very solid pitcher, much more stable, much more mature (than Joba) with the stuff to be a very solid number 2 or number 3 starter if he learns just a few new tricks - which I've already yakked about way too much.
I would *not* trade Joba for a position player as I feel we need to replace his arm with another arm - we don't have that deep a farm system for pitchers that we can do that.
Corey - good question! I'm not ready to give up on Robbie just yet. I suspect that his seeming non-chalance is his way of hiding his stress. And I think he was pressing too hard the entire post-season, which even the best player (think Alex) has been known to do. I think he's got a decent glove, he pairs well with Jeter in the middle and his bat is usually very solid for a 2B. He needs to stop thinking and start having fun out there - but I would keep the guy.
Posted by: Mitchell
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November 20, 2009 01:30 AM
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Peter I agree on all but if we sign Lackey, does that make joba available for a position player??I don't want bay or holliday, Ajax would get a real shot like both melky and gardner did over these past year ..he could be a guy we have for years in CF.if damon won't sign. for a 1 or 2 year deal for abreu $s , i would opt for figgins to play LF, and fillin for arod at 3b,bat him behind jeter..we also have melky or gardner as back up outfielders. we have a lot of 4 and 5 fill in guys for the rotation.. also Cano needs to stay at 7 8 or 9 spots in the lineup, he is brutal when put 3 or 5. he can't handle pressure, thats why i knew he would bomb in the playoffs, he don't have the metal, not yet, maybe it will come in time, but i would not trade him..down in the line up he gives us great seasons..so it goes back to RF. for me and if i was gm , markakis for joba swisher, he hits great in balt. or melky , plus Ian.also have miranda , don't like to give him up, but he is land locked , TEX, is their. My out field would be Markakis , Ajax , damon or figgins, lackey , as #3, gaudin, pettitte,sheets for cheap , hughes if they want to mess with the pen and girardi seems set on mitre,
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | November 20, 2009 08:05 AM |
BWP- If you sign Lackey you could certainly trade Joba. But, unless they run into financial trouble the Orioles are not going to trade Markakis. They have him signed thru 2015 at reasonable $$.
Posted by: Peter
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November 20, 2009 10:16 AM
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I'd trade almost anyone for Markakis. He and Sizemore are the best outfielders in the AL. But I can't believe Baltimore would ever part with him.
One more stir the pot question: what's up with Hafner? He went from one of the top hitters in baseball to the reincarnation of Steve Kemp. I can't believe he's all washed up. If the Yankees needed to add a big thumper maybe the Indians would give him away.
Posted by: Corey | November 20, 2009 10:50 AM |
They certainly would Corey, but with three years/$40 million left on his deal would you really want him?
Posted by: Peter
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November 20, 2009 01:56 PM
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Hafner along with sizemore are roid guys, thats why the injuries and hugh decline.. The Os have four outfielders, if you give them swisher or melky plus joba and Ian.. I think they bite.Or maybe miranda in the mix some way..4 players to one with joba , maybe gets done
Posted by: Anonymous | November 20, 2009 02:17 PM |