« October 2009 | Main | December 2009 »
TBS has decided to "part ways" with Chip Caray, bringing an end to our suffering.
I generally don't root for people to be fired, but I am also not a big fan of nepotism. I hope TBS thinks about adding a good play-by-play guy like Gary Cohen or I would take Jon Miller if Joe Morgan didn't come with him.
Congrats to Derek Jeter who was named Sports Illustrated Sportsman Of The Year today. He is the first Yankee to win that award and only the third athlete from a New York team to win. (Impossible trivia question- who were the others?)
It has been a treat to watch Jeter play for the Yankees for 14 seasons and it is nice to see him receive an award like this.
The Red Sox have treated their shortstops like temps over the past 6 seasons. Let's review who has played shortstop for the Red Sox since Nomar Garciaparra was traded in 2004 (the majority for each season since the trade): Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Julio Lugo again and Nick Green (AGon was also a major contributor toward the end of the 2009 season of course).
Now, for a "major market" team like Boston, it is only fair to compare their shortstop situation to that of other major market teams, no? So let's look at who the other major market team have had a shortstop since 2004:
NYY: Derek Jeter, Jeter, Jeter, Jeter, Jeter, Jeter (1 player)
LAA: David Eckstein, Orlando Cabrera, Cabrera, Cabrera, Erik Aybar, Aybar (3 players)
NYM: Kaz Matsui, Joese Reyes, Reyes, Reyes, Reyes, Alex Cora (injury to Reyes)(3 players)
CHC: Ramon Martinez, Neifi Perez, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot, Theriot, Theriot (4 players)
LAD: Cesar Izturis, Izturis, Rafael Furcal, Furcal, Angel Berroa, Furcal (3 players)
STL: Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Eckstein, Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Bredan Ryan (4 players)
PHI: Jimmy Rollins, Rollins, Rollins, Rollins, Rollins, Rollins (1 player) DET: Carlos Guillen, Guillen, Guillen, Guillen, Edgar Renteria, Adam Everett (3 players)
HOU: Adam Everett, Everett, Everett, Everett, Miguel Tejada, Tejeda (2 players)
This illustrates it is possible to have a franchise shortstop, but it also tells us it isn't easy to have one player (or even just 2) lock down the position for a long period of time.
The Red Sox can't look to Gonzalez anymore as he signed with Toronto, so they are left to either sign someone like Marco Scutaro or Adam Everett if they choose the free agency route. Boston does have a few high-ceiling prospects in the minors who could handle the position (Jose Iglesias being the best known) down the road, but for 2009, we are again headed for uncertainty. Jed Lowrie hasn't stayed healthy and signing Scutaro would cost Boston a 1st round draft pick in 2010.
Oh well, they might just figure out the shortstop position at some point, but 2010 seems to be headed towards a patch-work of utility guys or overpaying a player that is as big a risk as anything on the open market having never played in Boston (Renteria and Lugo). We'll known soon enough.
Let's see, the Blue Jays have an ace pitcher and the Yankees may be in the trade market for one. This has a familiar feel to it...oh that's right it's happened twice before- Roger Clemens and David Cone. In 1995, the Yankees traded for Cone in the midst of a pennant race. In 1999, they traded for Clemens at the start of spring training. Both trades are good barometers of what it might cost to land Roy Halladay in 2009.
The Yankees made a trade for Cone on July 28, 1995, sending three minor league pitchers to Toronto for Cone. Cone was two months from free agency and was coming off a Cy Young-winning season in 1994. It turned out to be one of the best trades in Yankees' history as Cone went 9-2 and pitched the Yankees into the playoffs. The three pitchers they surrendered were at AA and lower at the time and combined to win only 6 games in the majors over the course of their careers.
In February 1999 the Yankees traded for Roger Clemens, sending David Wells, Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush to Toronto. Clemens was coming off of the 1998 Cy Young, but Wells had pitched very well in 1998 as well, going 18-4 with a 3.49 ERA. Lloyd you may remember as the Damaso Marte of his time. He had a rough transition to New York, but became a hero in the 1996 playoffs and settled into a productive role in the bullpen after that. Bush, who came to the Yankees in the Hideki Irabu trade, was somewhat like Freddy Guzman all speed and no bat. Clemens was two years from free agency at the time of the trade.
So, Halladay would probably fall somewhere in between these two trades. He is not as close to free agency as Cone was, but he is closer than Clemens was. Extrapolating from those two trades, the Yankees shouldn't have to give up a pitcher of the same quality as Wells, but they would need to give up better prospects than they did for Cone. Translate that into today and I would think a package of Joba or Hughes, Melancon and another lower-level arm would be about right. That's a trade I wouldn't make with Lackey available on the free agent market because once you trade for Halliday you are going to have to give him a huge deal as a contract extension. Now, if Lackey goes elsewhere, the Yankees need to give Halliday a long look.
Bob Sheppard announced his retirement yesterday and Yankee games will never be the same. From Joe DiMaggio to Derek Jeter, Sheppard announced every great Yankee in between. I believe it was Billy Crystal who said, "When I die and go to Heaven I want Bob Sheppard to announce me."
To all our readers, thank you for making this a great experience. Andy and I wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving.
And, to my fellow Yankee fans it seems appropriate to say...ENJOY THE PIE!
The NY Daily News is reporting that the Red Sox are making a strong push to acquire Toronto's Roy Halladay. This would be a great acquisition for Boston, but is it the best way to upgrade the pitching staff?
For starters, it might take a package of Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly and another 1-2 prospects (and maybe Daniel Bard) to make the move (I'm not here to suggest the above is the necessary package of players, just trying to introduce a concept). Then, once here, Halladay would require an extension, 5 years at between $80mm or $90mm ($16m - $18mm per year) sounds about right.
Or perhaps the Red Sox just go out and sign John Lackey. Lackey isn't as good as Halladay, but he also wouldn't cost as much and still provide a solid #2 pitcher. Consider, signing Halladay would cost lots of money and lots of talent. Signing Lackey would cost less money and only a 1st round pick in the 2010 draft.
You tell me, assuming both moves prove possible, which is the best approach?
Halladay is awfully tempting but would probably negate any possible offensive upgrade using prospects (names like Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera have been mentioned). In addition, whether or not the Red Sox re-sign Jason Bay will play into this as well.
To me, if the Red Sox can re-sign Bay, I'd make the Halladay move. Jon Lester, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett would be a compelling 1-2-3, wouldn't it? If they cannot sign Bay or Matt Holliday, I think the focus needs to be a trade to upgrade the offense.
In an ideal world, I'd see the Red Sox re-sign Bay, trade for an offensive upgrade at shortstop or the corning infield and get Halladay. That would make this a great off-season for Boston, but I'm not sure the minor league system has enough ammunition to get all of that done.
As we approach and enter the Winter Meetings (Dec 7-10), we should start getting some clarity on what the Red Sox will look like in 2010.
The Twins are trying to get local boy, Joe Mauer, to agree to a contract extension and their success or failure will have a big impact on the Yankees' offseason.
If Mauer doesn't agree to an extension he will become a free agent after 2010, and considering he is a catcher and only 27, he will be looking at a monster contract. Obviously, the Yankees would be one of the favorites to sign him in this scenario. Knowing this, New York could gamble and put their best prospect, Jesus Montero into trade proposals if they thought they could sign Mauer after the 2010 season. I know people are a bit down on Joba, but imagine what a package with Joba and Montero in it could fetch. But, if Mauer stays in Minnesota (and I think he will) the Yankees need to have internal options to play catcher and therefore must hang onto Montero.
I read today that the Twins hope to have these talks concluded by Christmas, so we should have an answer by then. Whatever happens, the Yankees will definitely be watching.
The next big choice facing the Yankees is which free agents they want to offer arbitration to. What this really boils down to is compensation. If you don't offer arbitration, you won't receive a draft pick if the player leaves. But, you only receive compensation if the player qualifies as a Type A or Type B free agent. (And, for those of you who remember the old system, you can keep negotiating with a free agent no matter what you do.)
As I have mentioned, the Yankees have seven free agents. Of those seven, Molina, Hairston, Hinske and Matsui (yes Matsui) didn't qualify for compensation. So, the Yankees don't have to worry about offering them arbitration because there is no reason to do so. That leaves three players, Damon, Pettitte and Nady who do qualify. Damon is a Type A free agent which means the Yankees would get two picks (probably a first rounder depending on which club he signed with and a "sandwich" pick, which is one between the first two rounds). Nady and Pettitte are Type B which means the Yankees would only get a sandwich pick. The thing to remember about arbitration is if you offer it and the player accepts, he is signed to a one-year deal. But, and this is important, he cannot earn less than 80% of his previous salary in the process. So, if the Yankees offer it to Damon and he accepts, he will make at least $10,400,000 in 2010. Arbitration has no middle ground, one side will win and one will lose. They can work out a deal, but if a hearing is held there can only be a winner and a loser.
That makes it a no-brainer to me for the Yankees to offer Damon arbitration. Worse case, he accepts and you have to give him a big deal for one-year. How much could he really make? With Abreu just signing for two-years/$19 million it would be hard to see him earn much more than the $13 million he made this season. That's a figure I think the Yankees could live with. Plus, with Boras as his agent I think he declines in search of a longer-term deal. That means the Yankees can wait and see what offers he gets, knowing they will probably get two top-50 draft picks if they decide to let him walk.
I would not offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte because I don't believe he is a threat to sign anywhere else and with a top-25 ERA in the AL, he could probably ask for and receive a big raise in arbitration. (Remember there is no limit to what a player can ask for) Pettitte's agents will compare his numbers to AJ Burnett. (not too far off and AJ earns $16 million.) They will compare them to Dontrelle Willis (100x better in 2009 and Willis made $10 million) In short, I think Pettitte might win whatever figure he asks for. I would prefer to just talk to Pettitte and try and work out a deal.
And that brings us to the last choice, Xavier Nady. Nady made $6.55 million last year, so he would be eligible to make at least $5,240,000 if he was offered arbitration. There is simply no way you can offer that to a player coming off of his second Tommy John surgery.
We will learn what the Yankees think in the next week.
We've learned the Yankees have added seven players to their 40-man roster while subtracting one. It's kind of an odd approach.
By adding seven guys (Ivan Nova, Reggie Corona, Austin Jackson, Hector Noesi, Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez and Romulo Sanchez) they protect those players from the Rule 5 daft. But, they also leave only one spot open on the 40-man, which they created by cutting Shelley Duncan (He isn't really cut, but he is not going to accept a minor league assignment, but more on that later) Leaving only one open spot on the 40-man means you have to start putting players on waivers if you sign more than one free agent. So, if the Yankees bring back Andy Pettitte and Johnny Damon, someone on the 40-man has to go through waivers.
The reason I find this odd is because of the way the Rule 5 draft works. Teams can select a player who isn't on the 40-man roster, but they then have to keep that player in the majors all year or offer him back to the original team. This actually happened last winter when Nova was selected by the Padres, but returned to the Yankees at the end of spring training because he wasn't ready for the bigs. So yes, leaving a player unprotected for the Rule 5 is a risk, but to remove him from the 40-man means you have to pass him through waivers only. Isn't that a bigger risk? So, I really don't get why the Yankees filled their roster almost to the brink, but I imagine we will read something about it in the next few days.
Of the guys they added, I think Russo has the best chance of making the team out of camp. He can play all over the infield and he put up a .326/.397/.431 line in AAA last year. The Yankees could very well bring him up as the backup infielder next year.
Jackson has been talked about everywhere, but looking at his AAA #'s last year it doesn't look like he will hit for enough power- yet. I see no reason to rush him and barring a monster spring, I hope the Yankees let him get comfortable in AAA for a few months in next season
Nunez is interesting because he has always been a good shortstop, but he had never hit prior to 2009. But in 2009, he took a huge leap forward offensively hitting .322/.349/.433. If he can keep that up the Yankees suddenly have their shortstop of the future.
Reggie Corona is another middle infielder and he has not hit at all. I would expect him to be the first guy waived if the Yankees need to free up a 40-man spot.
Ivan Nova split time between AA and AAA starting at both. He walks almost 4 per 9 and he doesn't strike enough guys out to be a legitimate prospect for 2010. He is only 21, so there is always the chance he can grow.
Hector Noesi is interesting because he strikes out a lot of guys with very good control. He is only 21 and he hasn't advanced past A ball, so he is unlikely to show up in the Bronx until 2011 at the earliest.
Romulo Sanchez is a guy the Yankees got from Pittsburgh for Eric Haker. He started and relieved in Scranton posting a 4.04 ERA in 64 innings. Since he is 25, it's hard to see him as more than a system filler a this point.
I mentioned that the Yankees sent Shelley Duncan to the minors, an assignment he will almost certainly refuse. I don't think Duncan would have ever become a star, but I don't understand why the Yankees chose to protect Sanchez and Corona while letting him go. I am sure some organization will pick up Duncan and it wouldn't surprise me to see him blast 15 home runs next season in the bigs. He would be a nice bat in a platoon.
It has been 15 days since the Yankees won the World Series, which means free agency is upon us. In less than an hour every player who filed for free agency is eligible to sign with another team. It also means that the 40-man rosters suddenly become a bit less crowded. For the Yankees, seven players will be subtracted from that roster and the thing we need to watch for is how many players get added back to the roster.
The Yankees have a lot of players who could be elevated to the 40-man and therefore protected from the Rule 5 draft. They could elevate all of them and then clear space as they sign free agents, but they are much more likely to only fill spaces they know will be empty between now and March. Who will they choose? There will be some obvious choices, like Austin Jackson added to the 40-man and some surprises. But, keep an eye on the 40-man roster tomorrow, the number of additions to it may give us an idea of the Yankees offseason plans.
The Red Sox released George Kottaras today according to ESPN.
With the return of Jason Varitek, Kottaras wasn't deemed necessary to the big league club. That said, I wonder if we'll see the Red Sox try to re-sign him at some point.
At first glance, I don't like this move. Kottaras hasn't been given a prolonged chance in the majors and with Victor Martinez here, things weren't going to change, but why didn't they try to trade him or sneak him through waivers back to the minors? Was it out of loyalty so he could choose his destination?
I'm interested to know more about why this was done and I hope we find out.
Heading into the offseason we know who the top-2 pitchers in the Yankees rotation will be, but little beyond that. Will Andy Pettitte come back? Probably, but it's not a definite. Will Joba be in the rotation? I believe so, but I also think the Yankees won't keep him there for long if he pitches like he did in August-October. What are they going to do with Phil Hughes? That's a bit trickier because Hughes only pitched 105 innings in 2009 and even less that that in 2008. If he was a fulltime starter, the chances are we would see the "Hughes Rules" in effect in 2010.
So, I think the sensible thing is to go and get another starter, even if Pettitte returns. I do not advocate trading for Roy Halladay. He is a wonderful pitcher, but the price will still be steep and when you factor in the contract extension you would need to give him, I would rather sign Lackey. But, the Yankees may not think Lackey is a great investment. I am sure they will check in on him, but if the price is steep they will probably pass.
One way that the Yankees could go is ot sign Ben Sheets. You could probably get Sheets on a one-year deal with a bunch of incentives tied to it. Obviously, he is an injury risk, but Sheets is only 31 and he has been a very effective pitcher in the past. If he pitches up to his normal standards you would have a very good pitcher in the rotation. If he gets hurt, the Yankees have backups in Hughes or Ian Kennedy. (BTW- reports on Kennedy in the AFL were positive.
Another guy who the Yankees might want to consider in the same vein is Randy Wolf. Wolf is a little older and doesn't have the stuff Sheets has, but 214 innings for the Dodgers in 2009. As an added bonus, he is lefthanded.
The Yankees also have some other internal candidates to consider. They declined their option on Sergio Mitre, but they still can offer him arbitration. Chad Gaudin is also under team control in 2010 and I imagine the Yankees offer both of them arbitration. I feel that Gaudin has the higher upside, but Girardi seems to love Mitre. That worries me, but hopefully the Yankees give Girardi enough better options that his affection for Mitre doesn't matter. And of course there is Chien-Ming Wang. I don't see how the Yankees offer him arbitration, but he could be back on a low-base deal. The problem with Wang is that you really don't know when he will be back and what level of performance he will provide when he comes back.
I imagine the Yankees will be patient, which is fine. I just hope they come into 2010 with a new starter from outside the organization.
As the Red Sox try to plug some power into the 2010 line-up, it has become painfully clear that current management has failed at developing and retaining power through the minor leagues. Take a look at the projected 2010 line-up (I'm not assuming anything with free agent players like Alex Gonzalez and Jason Bay):
c - V. Martinez - trade
1b - Youkilis - draft pick from prior regime
2b - Pedroia - draft pick from current regime
3b - Lowell - trade
ss - Jed Lowrie - draft pick from current regime
lf - Hermida - trade
cf - Ellsbury - draft pick from current regime
rf - Drew - free agent
dh - Ortiz - free agent
Of the above, I think there really is only one "power hitter" in that group. You have guys like Youkilis who has hit for moderate power and plenty of production, Lowell, who's cap is probably 20-25 home runs, Drew another 15-25 home run guy and lastly Ortiz, the who certainly has been a power hitter, but has a lot to prove in 2010.
So if Jason Bay leaves, do the Red Sox have anything to pluck from the upper minor-leagues? The short answer is, no.
The closest they have is Ryan Kalish, who hit 18 home runs in 2009 with a .455 slg, hardly jaw-dropping power. Another is Lars Anderson, but he fell off in a big way in 2009. In fact, the closest thing the entire system has to a power hitter is Yale (baseball powerhouse) grad Ryan Lavarnway who hit 21 HRs in 2009 with a .540 slg, but he is in mid-A ball playing for Greenville, South Carolina. Another observation is perhaps they need to limit draft picks to batters named Ryan.
So what gives? Well if you've read recent comments from Red Sox GM Theo Epstein saying J.D. Drew has been worth every penny, and some, of his current contract, maybe the Red Sox are avoiding the pure slugger. But why? I understand the focus on OBP, I really do, but don't some players slug and get on base? Why haven't the Red Sox stumbled on this kind of player in recent memory? I know Albert Pujols types don't grow on trees, but that utter lack of power raised on the Red Sox farm is amazing.
So while we lament what the Red Sox don't have internally, we are forced to wait and hope the Red Sox can lure a slugger (or sluggers) from the free agent market or in a trade. I appreciate that contributions of Pedroia and Ellsbury, but they are just one kind of player.
Warning: The following statement cannot, in no way, be backed-up statistically: The Red Sox need that boffo offensive threat that causes other managers to devote a disproportionate amount of time worrying about and gives the Red Sox some swagger. I think the Manny Ramirez/David Ortiz combo did that but the current mix of players just doesn't instill fear.
I got that feeling of fear last year watching the Red Sox pitch to Jeter, ARod, Teixeira (and company). It was terrible thinking about just what that line-up could do to a team. Think about it, the Yankees have the marque hitters in Jeter, ARod and Teixeira, but also had 5 guys slug over .500 with 2 more knocking on that door.
The Red Sox need to build their line-up back to awe-inspiring heights and the good news is they certainly have the resources to do so. It won't be an efficient use of $ or bodies, it never is, but the Red Sox will be a watered-down team in 2010 without some significant help.
There's been chatter that the Red Sox are looking at John Lackey. He'd be a good addition to be sure, but there also seems to be indication it was just preliminary talks, much like they do with most free agents.
Billy Wagner might just remain with the Red Sox. If they offer arbitration, Wagner would cost a team Type A compensation (1st round pick). So either he signs with another team as their closer or he can be a set-up man in Boston for very good money. My bet is he returns to Boston.
The notion that the Red Sox are looking to deal for Adrian Gonzalez is great, but if they do consummate a deal, expect a truckload of talent to head west. With former Asst. GM Jed Hoyer now running the show in San Diego, he has intimate knowledge of the Red Sox farm system and would likely ask for 3 or more of the best players and, to boot, would also have to get a name people have heard of to stave of criticism locally, so expect a Daniel Bard or Clay Buchholz to be in the mix. Expensive indeed, but if they are looking to upgrade the offense, it might just be necessary. Oh yeah, and it's only an upgrade if they re-sign Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday too.
Tying the Lackey/Gonzalez talk together, perhaps Lackey would ultimately be a replacement for Buchholz (I'm not judging who's better, simply a swap of bodies). You heard it here first.
With the new FM Sports talk station firing on all cylinders (98.5 The Sports Hub), there was an interesting question posed in yesterday's afternoon show (Felger and Massarotti). I'll modify it a bit for this site and add to it to include the Yankees (condition - questions below pertain to the 2009 team):
Who is the most overrated Red Sox player?
Who is the most overrated Yankee player?
One of the tougher decisions facing the 2010 Yankees is how to allocate AB's to the DH spot. If they bring back Damon, they would have four different players (Damon, A-Rod, Jeter and Posada) who could potentially get more than 10 games each at DH. That's one of the reasons why the Yankees should only bring back Matsui at a reduced rate and with the understanding that he may only play 80-100 games. Will Matsui accept those terms? Your guess is as good as mine.
But, let's say he doesn't. Let's say the Yankees lose Matsui to some other team, how will they recover his lost production? My suggestion would be to consider giving a deal to Jim Thome. Yes, Thome is old and can't play in the field, but he is a reasonable match to Matsui with the bat (.249/.366/.481 for Thome '09 .274/.367/.508 for Matsui). Best of all, he has reached the point in his career where he just wants to win as evidenced by his acceptance of a trade to the Dodgers where he knew he wasn't going to do anything except pinch hit.
I would be willing to bet that Thome would be fairly cheap ($4 million?) and could provide a solid option if Matsui leaves. You could DH him 80 or so games and use him as a pinch hitter when needed. I would prefer a younger, more athletic option, but Thome wouldn't necessarily be a bad choice.
BTW- it's only been a week since the Yankees won, but it looks like Jeter has really let himself go. Yikes!
Where do stories like this one about George Steinbrenner come from? They come from somebody in the Yankees' organization who wants to create the illusion that George is still a part of the team. A better question is why does somebody want to create this illusion?
It doesn't matter what anyone has to say about George or his health, everything you needed to know about him was revealed last Wednesday when the Yankees won the World Series and he watched from Tampa. Healthy George is in that locker room or at least watching the game from the owner's box. But, the Yankees just celebrated their first World Series title since 1962 without George being part of the party and that tells me he is in a bad way.
I wrote about George at length in March 2008 and my feelings haven't changed. Whatever you think of him, it would be better if he were left alone to live out his life in private. The problem is, somebody in the Yankees' organization doesn't want to let him do that.
I know it's just posturing, but with Boras trying to get Damon signed until he is 50, the Yankees need to think of some alternatives.
One of the moves that Brian Cashman should get much more credit for last year is the trade of Betemit for Swisher. Just to recap, Swisher hit 28 home runs for the Yankees while Betemit hit .200 and was designated for assignment in June. The Yankees added Jeff Marquez (9.85 ERA) and Jhonny Nunez (nice numbers in AA) but received Kanekoa Teixeira who almost matched Nunez in AA. Truly, this was one of the better heists in Yankee history, but strangely it seems to have been forgotten in the aftermath of the World Series.
So, could the Yankees replicate or come close to replicating their success with Swisher? I think they might if they traded for Josh Willingham.
Willingham is not as young as Swisher (he will be 31 on opening day) but he has a lot of similar attributes. He hit well last year .260/.367/.496, pretty close to his career rates. He fields left well, .925 RZR, which would have been the top mark in the NL if he had qualified there. (split time between left and right in 2009) He is fairly patient at the plate, 4.06 pitches per appearance in 2009- 4.04 in his career. Best of all, he won't be a free agent until 2012, meaning the Yankees can control him for the next two seasons and walk away after that. If you want a red flag, the back injury in 2008 that caused him to miss 50 games is it. But, he only missed time in 2009 because of the bereavement list and a viral infection.
So why would the Nationals trade him? Well, he made $3-million in 2009 and he is headed to arbitration. Coming off a season where he hit 24 homers, he could see that salary potentially double. The Nats have had a tough time in D.C., averaging only 22,716 in 2009 in attendance and ranking 29th-out-of-30 in Keith Law's farm system rankings. The Yankees have some interesting choices to make with their 40-man. They also have Juan Miranda who has no real place in New York. How about using him and a pitcher or two to get Willingham?
Derek Jeter won another Gold Glove today and people are howling in protest already about how poor his defense is.
But, if you look at RZR (Revised Zone Rating) which is basically a measure of the percentage of plays a defender turns in their own defensive zone, Jeter was #1 in the AL. Let me repeat that, Jeter turned the highest percentage of balls hit in the shortstop zone into outs in the AL. I am not saying he is the best shortstop in the AL. In fact if you look at plays made outside the zone, ie great plays, Jeter falls to 10th. But unlike 2004 (9th of 11 in RZR) 2005 (8th of 10) or 2006 (8th of 11) Jeter has a claim on this award because he finished first. Elvis Andrus probably deserved it more (.001 behind Jeter in RZR and way ahead in plays outside the zone), but Jeter isn't a bad choice at all.
One last thing about Jeter's defense. Much has been made about how he greatly improved his defense in 2009, but the numbers aren't there. Interestingly, Jeter's defense took a big jump for the better after 2007 when his RZR went to .839 from .777. So, it appears that the positioning and stretching he did in the offseason didn't make as much a difference as we were told.
Two pitchers to choose from, here are their stats over the last five years
Pitcher A: 69-38 3.49ERA 989 IP 837K's 282 BB's
Pitcher B: 57-44 3.78ERA 850IP 836K's 308 BB's
They are both the same age, so it is pretty close. Pitcher A has been more durable, but pitcher B has better striekout rates. Then again, Pitcher B is more wild as well.
Well let's unmask our two participants. Pitcher B, you already have, he is AJ Burnett. Pitcher A is therefore John Lackey.
Lackey is a year younger than Burnett so the Yankees would be signing him at roughly the same point age-wise, they signed AJ. Now any agent worth his salt is going to use these numbers as a comparison, which means Lackey is probably going to go for $16.5 million a season and 5 years- just like AJ.
I never liked the AJ signing, it seemed like too much money for too many questions. I would feel better about spending that same amount on Lackey and it gives you a very solid 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation. Add in Pettitte and you have the pitching to match pretty much anyone.
From a payroll standpoint you have to assume the Yankees want to keep the payroll where it is or lower it. They are subtracting around $44 million assuming they non-tender Wang. But, players like Sabathia get a raise this year, so around $14 million of that is already spoken for and they will have arbitration choices with guys like Melky and Bruney that will also go to that savings. Let's say when all is said and done you have about $27 million to spend total- do you commit over half of that to Lackey?
The Red Sox declined the team option on Jason Varitek today meaning he can either exercise his player option, or become a free agent. It'll be strange to not see Varitek on the opening day roster if it comes to that.
Additionally, the Red Sox did exercise their option on Victor Martinez meaning he'll make $7.1mm in 2010. This was a given, not sure there was any need to report on it in fact.
The Red Sox and Tim Wakefield ripped up the perpetual team option of $4mm a year and instead signed a 2 year, $5mm deal with incentives that could make it a $7mm deal. Given Wakefield's health, this seems like a good move for both sides.
On the non-option side of things, Nick Green became a free agent today. I think Green is a versatile player (he can pitch, never allowed an earned run!!) and is worth a roster spot in 2010.
In what appears to be a hedge against the possibility of losing Jason Bay, the Red Sox traded for outfielder, Jeremy Hermida. Had this move been made 3 seasons ago, I'd have been thrilled, but Hermida hasn't lived up to his hype and now this move looks like a low-risk move for a player who will hopefully serve as a back-up.
A change of scenery might be what Hermida needs and he still might be a star, but after 5 seasons in the majors (and almost 2000 plate appearances), he is looking more like a mediocre player. If Bay is re-signed, Hermida's acquisition will have been for depth, if Bay is not re-signed, Boston is clearly hoping they can extract that star potential.
As for Alex Gonzalez, the Red Sox held a 2010 option at $6.5mm, but declined it today. The guess is they are trying to hammer out a 1 or 2 year deal with Gonzalez for much less $.
It'll be interesting to see this play out as if he is re-signed, it serves as evidence the Red Sox are content to let Jed Lowrie complete for playing time, while if they don't re-sign him, it says to me the Red Sox will try to solve SS via trade. Letting Lowrie lay claim to SS is too dangerous as he just cannot stay healthy.
The General Managers Meetings kick off tomorrow in Chicago. MLB doesn't screw around, just days after the World Series, teams are hard at work getting ready for 2010. As most of you know, these meetings typically serve as the genesis of many trades and free agent signings later in the off-season.
Fire up the Hot Stove.
That's what Brian Cashman said on the radio the other day in discussing his plans for next year and he is absolutely right. There are some obvious moves to achieve this and some tough ones. In our 2010 planning, let's start with the Yankees who will become free agents and what they should do with each one. By my count, the Yankees have seven potential free agents: Pettitte, Damon, Matsui, Hinske, Hairston, Molina and Nady.
Start with Pettitte, who gave the Yankees 194 innings with a 4.16 ERA in 2009. If Andy wants to come back, and I am not sure he does, the Yankees should definitely offer him another one-year deal. Pettitte sounded like he was on the fence after the World Series, recognizing that this would be a pretty good way to end a career. But, he also sounded like someone who still had the fire to pitch. Ultimately, I think it comes down to his family and what they want. With Pettitte, the Yankees have three definite starters in 2010 (I am not counting Joba right now) so the Yankees should lure him back. By my math, he ended up with $10.5 million for his efforts in 2010, a similar one-year deal, maybe $8 million base and incentives, seems about right.
Molina and Hairston are players the Yankees could easily let go and get younger. Molina is a great catcher, but a lousy hitter. While Cervelli isn't a good hitter either, he is a pretty good catcher, is only 23 and costs a lot less. Swapping him for Molina seems like a no-brainer.
The Yankees have Pena, who is a reasonable facsimile to Hairston. Pena is a great glove and he has started to learn the outfield spots. He is much younger and again cheaper, it seems like another no-brainer to choose him over Hairston.
Eric Hinske had some big hits for the Yankees and he actually hit lefties well in 2009, something he had not done well in his career. He can play the corners of the infield and the outfield, so if he would take one year and $1 million or so, I would bring him back.
And that brings us to the final three players, Damon, Matsui and Nady. I love Matsui, he is a great player and he certainly rises to the occasion as he showed this week, but you simply can't bring him back. Matsui can't run and he can't play the field. His knees are a major liability and the Yankees would be wise to part ways with him now.
Part of the reason you have to say goodbye to Matsui is the need to free up the DH slot in 2010. Posada is going to see some games there, A-Rod, Jeter should as well. But one guy who should spend a fair amount of time there, if he comes back, is Johnny Damon. There were two instances in the playoffs that really highlighted where Damon is as a player. The first was the throw he made from shallow leftfield against the Angels that wasn't even close to getting the runner. The second was the AB against Brad Lidge in Game 4 and the steals of 2nd and 3rd. Damon is not someone you want to see in the outfield on a regular basis, but he is still a dangerous hitter and runner. His bat is good enough that you could put him at DH without any problems. I would offer him arbitration and hope you can bring hm back for one more year where you put him in left when you want to DH some of the older guys and DH him the rest of the time.
Along with that move, I would offer Xavier Nady an incentive-based deal to come back and play left field fairly regularly next year. Nady is not a star, but his career rates of .280/.335/.458 are right in line with the average AL leftfielder (.267/.338/.442) He is a solid defender and the Yankees could give him a one-year deal with incentives that would also give him the chance to reestablish his value as a free agent. He is about to turn 31, so he is young enough that you aren't taking a big risk bringing him back for a season.
Now some people will argue the Yankees should sign Bay or Holliday, but I disagree. Those guys are going to require huge deals and they will both be over 30 when the season starts. The Yankees should bid up the prices, but leave them for other teams to scoop up. Besides, if the Yankees are going to bid on a free agent, I want a pitcher, but we will get to that.
Bringing back Nady and Damon allows you to keep Austin Jackson in the minors as well. Jackson had a solid year in Scranton, but he didn't hit for power. (.405 slugging) That would translate to an abysmal slugging in the majors and he needs to show some power before you can consider putting him in the everyday big league lineup.
So, bring back Damon, Nady, Hinske and Pettitte if they all agree to one-year deals and say good-bye to Matsui, Molina and Hairston. You get a bit younger, subtracting while retaining flexibility for later years.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." --Rogers Hornsby
My Game 6 companion sent me that quote today and it really captures the next three months for me. The 2009 baseball season is officially over. It couldn't have worked out any better, but it's done. May the memories keep us warm over these coming months. Only 96 days to pitchers and catchers!
I really didn't enjoy all the Steinbrenner tributes last night because the George of today is not the George I remember. The guy I remember was a bombastic bully who ranted like a lunatic and treated people like cockroaches.
Yes, George was always willing to spend, but his behavior always left me cold. I think the best thing that happened to the Yankees in recent years was George disappearing from the scene. Please don't misconstrue that, I would never wish an illness on anyone, I am just glad I don't have to listen to George anymore.
That's why this statement bothers me. "And the quest for number 28 begins" comes out of George's mouth less than 24 hours after wining number 27? Please, just shut up and enjoy this, or at least wait until the parade is over before adding that.
Sadder still is Girardi's plan to change his number to 28. I don't know if he thinks this will get him a bigger contract or fire up the fan base, but it just depresses me. Yes, wining is wonderful, but it simply won't happen every year. Look at the 1980's and the past eight years as evidence of what happens when you try to win every year, it's impossible and self-defeating. Sooner or later you have mortgaged too much of the future and the whole thing falls apart. In retrospect, the Yankees are lucky that the damage was limited to missing the playoffs in 2008, it could have been much worse.
The Yankees rebounded from that season in the best way possible and they are champs again. Girardi changing his number every year is a cheap gimmick and besides, what happens if the Yankees win the next four World Series? Will he ask them to bring Elston Howard's number out of Monument Park? Stick with 27 Joe.
There is something really special about a parade through The Canyon of Heroes. If you have never seen one, I encourage you to try and attend tomorrow (or watch on YES) For me it's the history of the parade route. Lindbergh, Einstein, JFK, all of them paraded up Broadway. I'm sure it will be quite a scene and I will let you know what I see and hear.
I heard an interview with Brian Cashman and he was talking about getting back to work and the GM meetings starting Monday. I am not going to focus on 2010 yet, but expect a post sometime this weekend about it. For now, I am going to continue to enjoy and enjoy this win.
I do have a question and a comment for blogland. First the comment, why do people keep saying the "Core of Four" now has one for the thumb? Posada didn't play in the 1996 postseason, great player, but this is really "only" his fourth championship.
Question is this a little debate we had at the Stadium last night. Twenty years from now, it's Old Timers' Day who gets introduced last Jeter or Rivera? As great as Jeter has been and he is also the Captain, I think you have to introduce Rivera last. Both are clearly Hall of Famers, but people will debate Jeter's place in the pantheon of shortstops 20 years from now. They will not debate Rivera's, he is the greatest who ever played his position. Knowing the two of them, they will probably insist on being introduced together, but it's a fun debate.
It's 2:45am and I have finally made it back to my house. I am exhausted, and I don't know if I will be able to speak tomorrow because my throat is so sore, but I have never felt better.
First a note, I couldn't tweet from the park because there was some sort of bandwidth meltdown tonight. Not sure what it was, but multiple people on multiple networks kept complaining about service. Anyway, apologies.
As for the game itself, I was struck as I walked around the park before first pitch at the lack of Phillies hats I saw. A few weeks ago in the ALDS, there were a fair amount of Twins hats. This time I think we counted two total in about an hour before game time, but we were lucky enough to have a Phillies fan- sans hat- sitting right next to us. This was a covert fan, he didn't wear any Philadelphia garb, except for the Eagles gloves on his hands. We immediately became best buddies (sarcasm)
I don't know what it sounded like on TV, but the crowd was into it. People were on their feet, screaming, chanting, clapping, doing everything they could to urge the Yankees on. (And rattle Pedro) When Matsui's homer went out I felt the place shake.
They won, we partied and then FOX took part with that tedious trophy presentation. They didn't introduce Selig which was smart because he would have been booed. I don't know if you saw Joba and Swisher lead the parade around the field, but that was pretty cool. The scoreboards overdid the "This Is For You Boss" message, but I can't begrudge the Yankees saluting George at this moment. Joe Buck was booed everytime they mentioned him and the commercial break in the middle of the presentation did not go over well. One interesting thing was Mariano mentioning he might want to pitch five more years.
But all of that doesn't really matter. What matters is the fact that the Yankees are champs again. Go out, celebrate and enjoy it, I think we have a parade coming on Friday.
Jeter-Damon-Teixeira-ARod-Matsui-Posada-Cano-Swisher-Gardner
That's the lineup to use and I hope they talked to Robbie about taking some pitches.
I am off to Game 6. It should be a wild ride tonight and I promise to try and "tweet" some thoughts from inside the stadium "yankeesredsox' Feel free to comment during the game, Andy will be keeping an eye on approvals.
I will post again at some point, but I am not sure when I will get home!
I know, I know, why bother posting about the Red Sox at this point in the season, but I was getting overwhelmed by Yankees banter and needed to put some Red Sox flavor back into this site, even knowing it'll quickly be drowned out by other topics...
Red Sox needs:
- Shortstop
- Left Fielder
- Impact Bat
The Red Sox need other things besides the above, but those 3 are a good starting point. Exercising the team option on Alex Gonzalez's deal ($6.5mm) would give you a steady, slightly range-challenged shortstop who cannot hit. He is a known quantity and he would offer some comfort to fans and teammates alike, but he really isn't that good. He doesn't get on base and his one heralded defense has gone from great to just ok. The options include counting on Jed Lowrie (unlikely) or trading for a better solution.
Re-signing Jason Bay would be a good move to fill the LF void. Matt Holliday is available too, but Bay proved he can handle Boston and is pretty consistent from year to year, so why not go with what you know versus taking a risk in signing a player not familiar with the Boston atmosphere (as pleasant as it is).
David Ortiz's struggles, Jason Varitek's disappearing act and no production from the shortstop position made the 2009 Red Sox offense anemic. I've mentioned this before, but when Manny Ramirez left town, gone was the player in the line-up every team feared. Bay is good, Youkilis is good, but the Red Sox do not have an elite, top 5 bat anymore.
Granted, just how many elite bats are there? Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Ichiro, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, ARod, Mark Teixeira? This list is not official of course and you could argue others belong, but the point is, the Red Sox have Bay and Youkilis as their best 2 hitters and while both are good hitters, they have holes. Bay can go into a 2 month slump and Youkilis is only good for 145 games and lacks the power you'd like to see from a game-changing hitter.
So I'd like to see the Red Sox pursue such a player. It'll cost a bunch, but it would be worth it. This team needs a shot in the arm (no, not of steroids). With no free agents fitting this mold, we are talking about a trade.
This season is mercifully coming to and end at which point we can all get on to talking about the important task of getting the Red Sox ready for 2010.
I was not surprised to hear Girardi killed on the airwaves today for using AJ on short rest, that's an easy criticism to make. (Though I am not making it) What did surprise me was the fact that so many Yankees' fans seem down in the dumps. Now there is a fine line between confidence and over-confidence, but last I checked the Yankees are the ones up 3-2 and they are the ones heading back home. They are the ones who went to Philly and took two-of-three Here are some other reasons to feel good:
Being back in the Bronx means Matsui gets back in the game and he is 5-for-10 in the series.
The Yankees didn't use Mariano, Joba or Marte last night. That means they are all well rested for tomorrow.
The Phillies are giving the ball to Pedro. Now he did look good last Thursday, but is anyone expecting him to be able to do that again? Maybe for a couple of innings, but I think the Yankees get to him. And if they don't remember that after 100 pitches...
he turns the ball over to the bullpen. Look at the Phillies pen and tell me who scares you coming out of it. I'll tell you who scares me, Cliff Lee getting called to close Game 7 out for them. (And if the Phillies got to that point, I would bet they go that way) Short of that, the Yankees have hit and should continue to hit that bullpen.
And finally, if the Yankees have to play a Game 7 they would give the ball to CC Sabathia. The Phillies would give the ball to either Hamels, Blanton or Happ.
So, don't get too down. There is a ballgame tomorrow and the Yankees need 1 more win to get to 27.
Just in case you were on the fence, rooting for the Yankees to win could help your pocket book next year. At least that's the conclusion of this study.
Now, I am not sure how much stock I would put in this. But, I will point out that this post from last year came true.
No, it's not because of the game (more on that later) but because of Girardi's postgame press conference. In it he was asked who would get the start Wednesday night and he said he would have to check and see how Andy felt tomorrow before deciding.
Now Girardi is going to take a beating in some corners for starting Burnett, but I still think it was a worthy gamble, provided you knew you had Andy ready to go for Wednesday. Maybe Girardi is playing some stupid game with the media here, but if he put Burnett on the mound without being 99.9% sure Pettitte would be ready to take the ball Wednesday he should be fired. If there was any doubt in his mind he had to start Gaudin tonight and then bring back AJ on full rest Wednesday. If Gaudin has to take the mound on Wednesday in that start, Girardi has severely jeopardized the Yankees' playoff chances.
As for the game, I actually walked away from it with a pretty good feeling. Sure Burnett got bombed, but you probably won't see him again in this series and you certainly won't see Coke. Other than that the pitchers looked good, with Hughes also looking better than he has. The Yankees almost stole the win because the Philadelphia bullpen is an absolute travesty. They are coming home and facing 2009 version of Pedro Martinez and probably Cole Hamels with the lineup looking a lot better than it did earlier in the Series. Yes, they could certainly still lose this series and the Game 6 starter being a question mark really bothers me, but you have to like their chances, especially when you consider the Philadelphia bullpen.
5-6-7-8-9 in the Yankees' lineup tonight consists of Swisher-Cano-Gardner-Molina and AJ.
That's a mistake against someone of Lee's caliber and the Yankees have to emphasize to Cano, Molina and AJ to take some pitches and make him work.
This is the downside of starting AJ in Philly, Molina is the catcher. But, expect Posada in early if AJ gives up some runs.
The Yankees are also waiting to hear from MLB about replacing Melky on the roster. The Yankees could replace him with any position player on the 40-man so that means Cervelli, Guzman and Pena could all get the nod. Considering where we are in the series, I think Guzman makes the most sense. You could also argue that Cervelli would be helpful tonight, but do you really need three catchers in Games 6 or 7?
UPDATE: Tyler Kepner of the Times is reporting that Pena is taking Melky's place on the roster. That kind of surprises me because they haven't used him in either of the first two rounds and while he is faster than Posada, he certainly doesn't have the speed of a Guzman.
The closest I have ever come to a Yankees World Series Game is when my then girlfriend/now wife went to Game 6 in 1996 and took a picture of the celebrations on the field. She gave me that as a birthday present and somehow we have managed to forge a happy life together despite the obvious tension that exists over the fact that she went to the game and I didn't. (I actually have been to the World Series. Game 2 in 1986, Gooden vs. Clemens)
Well, I now have a chance to see the Yankees in the Series because I have tickets to both Game 6 and Game 7. But as cool as it would be to see them win in person, I am more than happy to forgo that pleasure and watch it on TV. Besides, I can go to a pretty neat parade later this week if they win. So wrap it up tonight guys, I won't mind a bit.
So here's a picture of an ad that is running in the Philadelphia papers today.
It's a nice looking shirt though.
It may sound overly dramatic, but I think the Yankees would have lost this series if they had lost tonight. They may still lose it, but think about it, they were up 2-0, 4-2 and then they were tied 4-4 with two outs in the ninth. The Phillies were going to bring up Rollins and Victorino in the ninth and things looked bleak. But, they pulled it out thanks to A-Rod, Damon, Posada and Mo.
Start with Damon. What a great AB to reach base and then that was an absolutely brilliant play to take the extra base off the steal. With the shift on, Damon knew third was open and when the throw went to the right of second, he took off. Great play and one that may have changed the whole inning. With a runner on third Lidge has to be careful with things in the dirt. Is that why he hit Teixeira or left a fastball over the plate to A-Rod? I can't prove it, but I imagine it helped.
A-Rod, can't say enough about his 2009 postseason and that hit was just a continuation of the trend. He won't ever have to worry about being called a choker again and you can tell that for the first time since he joined the Yankees he fits in.
Posada- that double made things academic.
Mo- If Ernest Hemingway was alive today, he would write about Rivera and not DiMaggio. Lidge's failure tonight just shows you once again how great he is.
Now we head to Game 5 with a chance for 27. Lee is going to be very tough, but the Yankees may have caught an odd break already today. Melky left the game limping, which probably means Gardner starts in center tomorrow. His game is much more suited to grinding out a run and I think that could benefit New York.
And yes, this makes up for the Eagles destroying the Giants earlier today. It makes up for it ten-fold.
Joe Girardi just announced that AJ Burnett is going in Game 5.
This is a real gamble by Girardi in some ways, but it makes a ton of sense in others. It is a gamble because Burnett may get rattled by the crowd, the surroundings, etc.. Also, it means you have two huge holes in the bottom of the lineup if he starts Molina. And finally it almost assures that Pettitte is going in Game 6 on short rest, something that he may not be up to do.
But, it makes sense because Girardi is basically telling you that he believes Burnett on short rest is better than Gaudin. I don't think you can argue that. Gaudin has been used for a total of one inning over the past month. The Yankees stated that Gaudin can probably go 75 pitches or so in a start and how far does that get you? So what Girardi is doing is giving the Yankees the best chance to win Game 5. It's hard to argue with that.
They survived last night and they survived thanks to their offense. Andy Pettitte wasn't good, but he avoided disaster. And, I think it is fair to say that Marte has justified every penny of that $12-million deal right now. Very nice to see Swisher bounce back from his benching and deliver.
The big guy goes tonight and the Yankees' offense has finally emerged. It's a good position to be in, but two moire wins are needed.