The Joba Math
The Yankees have 67 games left and that means Joba would be expected to start 13 more times this season. Considering he has already thrown 95 innings, that would put him way over his suspected innings limit of 140.
So, what exactly is the Yankees' plan here? If they want to keep him around 140 innings, they can probably only let him start 5 more times before pulling him out of the rotation and putting him back in the bullpen. I have three theories as to what they are doing.
1- Either Aceves or Hughes will start to transition back to the rotation soon and take Joba's place with Joba heading back to the pen. The problem with this theory is that it would have been simple to keep Aceves starting over the past few weeks and I can't believe they are suddenly going to reverse course again. Which leads me to theory 2....
2- The Yankees had a plan at the start of the year which was to open with Joba in the rotation and Hughes in the AAA rotation. Pitch Joba until he gets close to his innnings limit and then bring Hughes up to fill his role. If one of the other starters got hurt you still had Aceves and Kennedy in AAA waiting to help out. Sitting here on July 24th, the Yankees haven't figured out what to do now that this plan is blown out of the water. The problem with this theory is why would they have swapped Aceves back to the bullpen if this was true?
3- We are totally misreading this innings limit issue. The Yankees used the number 140 last year, they haven't said a number this year and our guesses are way off and they intend to use him for 160 or 170 innings. The problem with this theory is that the Yankees are very conservative with pitchers and they know the research shows you are risking injury if you jump a pitcher by more than 30 innings a year. Joba pitched 112 innings in 2007 and 100 in 2008, would they really jump him up to 160 knowing that?
So, three theories and three problems with them. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Comments
I have always been a critic of the innings counting. I get it after an injury/surgery type situation. Are innings all created equally? You (Peter) have previously mentioned that Joba is taking something off his pitches to theoretically get his control better. So he is using less energy and strain per pitch, right?
The argument for going slow is "the investments in salary are so big, don't want to blow the arm out unnecessarily" and you always want to have the best pitchers available to you. Got it.
How are they the best pitchers available if they can't be used (properly?) ?
Posted by: blmeanie | July 24, 2009 11:42 AM |
I can't imagine that a "must win season" would be planned around who's in who's out who's up who's down. I am not disagreeing with you, but if Cashman and their "brain trust planned that out, they should get jobs at Kmart.If they thought wang was going to finish another "full year" that was their first mistake, the guy looked out of shape always. If next year they can get value for him ,trade him..second, did they think pettite was going to have a sub four era? never again , he is past, past his prime, i guess what i'm saying is they had zero forsight, now knowing joba and or hughes were not going to have full seasons is insane taking in all these factors. and burnett has a history of injury. so at least three of their starters had hugh ? marks starting the season .
Posted by: born with pinstripes | July 24, 2009 04:27 PM |
I don't know the answer BWP, but I am starting to wonder if the Yankees have a plan. Al Leiter said on the pregame tonight he thought the number was 150 and Joba would be out of the rotation by September. If so, then who is going to pitch?
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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July 24, 2009 07:31 PM
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Peter ,I agree with you, i do believe they have a plan, just a brutal one, if the case of joba not going more than X amount of innings to start the year, why not let him stay home or go to the Bahamas and start pitching in end of May. Now when these guys were " planning all this ,did anyone say, Hmmm what happens if we make the playoffs???? Put him in the bullpen/ after you make him a starter again??What would happen if he was double didget wins with a low three ERA ?? Shut him down. ??? Now I know they MUST go get cliff Lee, or Washburn , who is going to be 35, Lee going to be 31, Lefties mature around 30 31 so I think it will be him, i read something today clev. wants joba or hughes plus for lee
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | July 24, 2009 11:04 PM |
BWP- I am all for another starter. I think I know what the Yankees are up to, I will post more later.
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July 24, 2009 11:12 PM
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Thank you Peter, I just heard on espn some one in the NL is looking for a lefty reliever, I have the guy.. send Marte back to the NL, he can't pitch in the American east.. Take their mascot and leave. HOW did CASHMAN resign this bum?? like he had a great year.. his moment in the sun came with the first guy he faced.. Ortiz.. he got him out.. then no more sun , just fog..peter see if that rumor has foundation. if you can
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | July 24, 2009 11:25 PM |
BWP- I have no clue why they brought Marte back, especially for the deal they gave him. I think the key to trading him is getting him back to the big leagues and having him pitch well. He will pass easily through waivers because no team would ever risk claiming that deal and that means the Yankees will have until August 31st to trade him. If he pitched decently and they can actually get something for him, I bet they do it.
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July 24, 2009 11:43 PM
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lets hope cashman is thinking what we are.
Posted by: bornwithpinstripes | July 24, 2009 11:54 PM |