« June 2009 | Main | August 2009 »

July 31, 2009

Enough

If you had any hopes for Sergio Mitre before tonight, I imagine tonight's performance finished those off.  Hopefully, tonight's performance finished off Joe Girardi's hopes as well.

I think they may have because Girardi chose to go to Robertson in the 4th with the game tied up again and Mitre sitting at "only" 75 pitches.  They will burn out the pen tonight, covering at least five innings, but what really matters is where they go from here.  Three Mitre starts are more than enough, let's get the next entrant in the "Who wants to be the fifth starter" contest up here ASAP. 

What's Next?

So the Yankees didn't pull off a big deal at the deadline.  That doesn't mean they can't do one later. 

As I talked about the other day,  with the financial climate the way it is, I think more players will pass through waivers than in past years.  I wouldn't expect Halladay to get through, but some of the other pitchers like Jon Garland, for example, would probably make it through.

The need remains the same, the Yankees need at least one and probably two starters.  I think Pete Abe is on to something with this post about Hughes.   I found it very curious that Hughes was brought out for the ninth inning last night after pitching most of the 7th and the entire 8th.  It would make sense because Joba is going to hit that innings limit and Hughes needs to throw more innings.  You can swap the two of them and hopefully the bullpen and rotation do not suffer.  But, even putting Hughes back into the rotation leaves you with Mitre and that is where Cashman needs to make a deal.

As for the deal they made today it is one of the ones that drives me a little batty.  Is Hairston an upgrade over Ransom?  I think he is, not by a lot, but a bit.  Is Hairston an upgrade over Pena?  That's my question because I don't think he is.  Why trade away a prospect, even one the Yankees will probably never use for a guy who essentially does the same thing as Pena, but at a higher cost?  

Stay tuned, Cashman is still on the clock.   

Red Sox Moves

I write this from a small island in Maine.  A small island with no high-speed, no 3G network, just slow dial-up...really slow.

Anyway, despite my limited information flow, I've learned (what you all learned probably hours ago) that the Red Sox have traded for the Indians Victor Martinez.  A good bat to be sure.  I suppose he'll help out Jason Varitek in catching and spell David Ortiz against tough lefties and spell Mike Lowell against tough righties.  It isn't just depth, but good hitting depth.

With the addition of Martinez, Adam LaRoche was traded to the Braves for Casey Kotchman.  Kotchman seems to add more depth at a position the Red Sox do not need and I'm not sure how they keep him on the 25-man roster.  The Red Sox traded Justin Masterson (removed from 25-man roster), Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price to get Martinez.  So there is space for Kotchman, but now the Red Sox have 1 fewer pitching options.

I'm sure we'll learn more about what they intend on doing in the coming hours.  With Clay Buchholz still in the organization, there is still a chance of a pitching upgrade (Roy Halladay perhaps...doubtful).

The Red Sox did add some pop to the line-up and some versatility too, but when you match Martinez and LaRoche up side by side, it isn't like Martinez is twice the player LaRoche is, is it?  I like the move, but very expensive.  I guess that's why you have minor leaguers, to trade them for known talent.

Deadline Blog

Thanks to some NYC traffic, we are getting a little bit of a late start, but here's what we know.

Washburn is going to Detroit

V-Mart to Boston

And the Yankees have added...Jerry Hairston Jr.   

3:48 One of the frustrating things right now is that we are hearing only one side of these deals.  Still don't know who the Yankees gave up for Hairston.  

3:51 Red Sox traded LaRoche to Atlanta for Casey Kotchman. 

3:56 Heyman on MLB Network said that he believes the Red Sox think that Kotchman will adapt to a backup role better than LaRoche.  

3:58 Heyman puts the chances of a Halladay deal at -20%.

4:00 Joel Sherman reporting that the Yankees will have both Hairston and Shelley Duncan on the roster.  That probably means goodbye to Cody Ransom.  

4:03 It's Victor Martinez bobblehead night in Cleveland tomorrow.  Can they ship those to Fenway now?  

4:05 Peter Gammons reporting that Nick Johnson is going to the Marlins and that Halladay may be on his way to the Angels.

4:07  Andy are you paying attention?  Rolen was traded for Edwin Encarnacion.  

4:22 Jason Stark reporting that nothing happened with Halladay

4:30 Heyman reporting the Padres have traded Peavy to the White Sox- AGAIN!

4:31 Yankees traded Chase Weems (single A catcher) for Hairston

4:34 Peavy has agreed to the trade with the White Sox according to Buster Olney

4:42 Hey Yankees' fans, the White Sox traded their starter for tonight in the Peavy deal.  Not sure what their plan B is, but they might have to scramble because they haven't had an offday in awhile.  

Deadline Day

Today's the trading deadline and in celebration, I will be live blogging from 3pm-5pm with news, rumors and reaction to what happens during the day.  Feel free to stop by and comment. 

July 30, 2009

Another One Bites The Dust

The Times is reporting that David Ortiz failed the same drug test in 2003 that A-Rod did.  In addition, Manny Ramirez also failed that test.

I have said all along that I think baseball players just need to come out as a group and admit what they did.  Having the news come out in fits and starts damages the game more than a huge mea culpa would.  

As for Ortiz, this report certainly makes his statement from February hard to understand.  At the time he said the following:

"I think you clean up the game by the testing. I test you, you test positive, you're going to be out. Serious. I know that if I test positive for using any kind of substance, I know that I'm going to disrespect my family, the game, the fans, and everybody. I don't want to be facing that situation, so what I will do, I won't use."

I hope that Yankees' fans do not celebrate this news.  This doesn't invalidate any championships Boston won it just makes it clear that the Red Sox's cheaters were better than the Yankees' cheaters in 2004 and 2007.  That is the sad truth of all of this.   

A Defense Of Swisher

Nick Swisher has been a frustrating player to watch this season.  For all the good he does with the bat, he goes into lengthy slumps and his defense in right can be frightening to watch.  Spurred on by some comments on various posts on this site, I decided to take a deeper look into his defensive play.  Here is what I found out.

Let me say up front that defense is a tough nut ot crack.  There are a lot of different ways to look at it, but I find the "Revised Zone Rating" method that Hardball Times uses to be the best.   Using their methodology, the average rightfielder mades 87% of the plays in his "zone" in 2007.

Swisher is well above-average in this category, making plays on 93.3% of the balls hit to his area.  Just for comparison sake, I looked at Abreu's defense in 2008 and found that he made only 87.2% of the plays in his zone.  Of further interest, Siwsher has made 31 "out of zone" plays in right this year- basically balls that he probably shouldn't get to.  Abreu made only a total of 32 all year in 2008. (I also compared Teixeria's defense in 2009 with Giambi's in 2008 and found that Teixeira made 80.8% of the plays compared to Giambi's 67.9%.)

While Swisher covers enough ground, it is his arm that is a weakness.  To date, he has only thrown out 1 runner.  This is a consistent problem for Nick, he only threw out 3 runners in 2007 and 2008 respectively. 

So, my conclusions are that despite his arm, Swisher makes the plays he should and when you factor in his bat, he is an above-average rightfielder.   

July 29, 2009

Don't Panic

Yes, the Yankees just traded for a guy with a 6.66 ERA in AAA.  But, this trade isn't about the Yankees, it is about the Scranton Yankees.  Simply put, they have almost nothing left in their rotation between injuries and callups so the Yankees traded for Hirsh and sent the infamous PTBNL back to Colorado.  This is about AAA depth, not big league depth. 

Shaking Things Up

Lee is headed to the Phillies and Ian Snell is part of a package headed to Seattle.  That leaves Toronto without an obvious fit for their ace and the Yankees potentially out in the cold because it looks like Seattle is buying and not selling. 

If Toronto budges from it's rumored price of Joba and Hughes for Halladay, then I talk to them.  Otherwise, no thanks.  

I still think the play is to call Arizona and see what they want for either Davis or Garland.  Not flashy, but innings-eaters at the back of the rotation that shouldn't cost too much prospect-wise.   

July 28, 2009

Wang's Done

It's official, Wang is out for the year.  As the article speculates, this could also be the end for Wang as the Yankees are very likely to non-tender him at this point. 

That's a discussion for another day, for now the Yankees really need to come up with a new starter.  Mitre is a time bomb.  Joba is almost out of innings. 2-1/2 days until the deadline, what is Cash up to?

July 27, 2009

This Isn't Working

I was as thrilled as anyone that the Red Sox signed John Smoltz in the off-season, but let's face it, he is terrible right now.  He can say his pitches look and feel good all he wants, but his 7+ era suggests he is either he is fooling himself, or just in denial.

I would hope that a meeting of the minds could take place soon regarding Smoltz and that he could be DLed and sent down to rehab in the minors.  With the Red Sox 2.5 games back, the major league level is no place to work on mechanics and conditioning.  Let Smoltz do that in Pawtucket.

The obvious concern is who would replace Smoltz at this moment.  I have to assume Michael Bodwen for a time and then Tim Wakefield when his health improves.  Given that I believe Wakefield's injury was more phantom than real, I bet he'd be available on his first day back, which I think is this Friday.

On another note, wouldn't Adrian Gonzalez look good in a Red Sox uniform?  I keep hearing the Red Sox are asking, but the Padres are interested unless it was a boffo package of players (read: Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden and maybe another player or 2).  I give this deal about a 5% chance of happening.

July 26, 2009

A Clue?

Scranton has a 6:30pm game tonight and Austin Jackson is not in the starting lineup while Shelley Duncan and Ramiro Pena are.

I don't know how much it means, Scranton is playing in Toledo and it is certainly feasible for a player to get on a flight tonight or tomorrow morning down to Tampa, but it is curious. 

Ouch

Brett Gardner is headed for the DL with a broken thumb

Now the big question is who comes up from AAA?

The 40-man roster doesn't have any reserve outfielders on it, unless you count Ramiro Pena because he has played a few games in CF for Scranton. 

Pena would be the easiest move (no 40-man move needed) but that is a leap of faith assuming that he can play outfield.

Shelley Duncan could be a callup.  He has killed the ball in AAA and while he can't play center, remember that Swisher played center 70 times last year.  You could start Melky is center every game and you Shelly to cover the corners.  If something happened to Melky, Swisher could get you through the game.

Still not ideal, which brings me to what I think is the best solution, give Austin Jackson a two-week audition in center.  

The Yankees have a number of free agent decisions to make this offseason and they start with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.  I don't think the Yankees should bring back either guy, but the decision becomes a lot easier if they know Jackson is up to the task of playing center next season and this could be a good trial period to evaluate him. 

This is really going to come down to what the scouts think.  If they think Pena can handle center, that will be the move.  If they feel Jackson is ready to make the jump, that will be.  We will learn what they think in the next 24 hours.   

 

July 24, 2009

My Joba Guess

I have been thinking about Joba and what is in store for him and I think I have a guess at what the Yankees are up to. 

Al Leiter speculated on the pregame tonight that the innings number was 150 or so and I think he is right.  Now that includes postseason and I would bet that means the Yankees are looking for Joba to throw around 140 innings in the regular season.  I would guess that around 15 of those are reserved for the bullpen, so that leaves Joba with about 23 innings left as a starter.  

Now look at the schedule.  Joba will take the ball again on July 29th.  But, the Yankees have an off day on August 3rd, meaning they can skip his turn totally the next time around.  They could then start him August 8th and then again August 13th and 18th.   They then would not need a 5th starter until August 29th. 

So here's my guess.  The Yankees let Joba pitch those next four starts and at the same time start building up Hughes to go back into the rotation.  That's why Aceves stayed in the pen because he is going to get the 8th inning in the gap created when Hughes is stretching out and Joba is still in the rotation.  Once Joba is back in the pen, he hopefully picks up where he left off and Hughes goes back into the rotation with the confidence he earned from mowing down hitters as a reliever.   

Fingers crossed.... 

WWJD?

By that I mean of course "What Will Joe Do?".  The Yankees have a pretty unique situation in the upcoming three games because they face three lefties in a row.  Now, I hope I am wrong about this, but I have a funny feeling that Joe Girardi is going to look at the opposing pitcher and immediately put Cabrera in center.  Unless something changes between now and gametime he is 1-1 on that prediction.

Joe didn't seem to notice last season when it happened, so it is probably optimistic to expect him to recognize the fact that Melky has stopped hitting.  Here are his OPS figures from April-July .971/.777/.687/.644.  If we reproduced that visually it would look like a sinking line.  

Now someone will probably point out that Gardner isn't hitting in July either.  Very true, but Gardner has a better OBP for the season and he can steal his way into scoring position better than Melky can.  Could Joe at least give Brett a chance?

Farewell

The Red Sox have DFA Mark Kotsay according to the Boston.com.  So ends the speculation on who was getting the pink slip.

It makes sense, Kotsay became an unnecessary redundancy (to use a recent Theo Epstein word)...who couldn't hit.

Tonight marks the debut of Adam LaRoche in a Red Sox uniform.  I don't think line-ups have been posted just yet, but I bet he gets a start tonight.

The Joba Math

The Yankees have 67 games left and that means Joba would be expected to start 13 more times this season.  Considering he has already thrown 95 innings, that would put him way over his suspected innings limit of 140. 

So, what exactly is the Yankees' plan here?  If they want to keep him around 140 innings, they can probably only let him start 5 more times before pulling him out of the rotation and putting him back in the bullpen.  I have three theories as to what they are doing.

1- Either Aceves or Hughes will start to transition back to the rotation soon and take Joba's place with Joba heading back to the pen.  The problem with this theory is that it would have been simple to keep Aceves starting over the past few weeks and I can't believe they are suddenly going to reverse course again.  Which leads me to theory 2....

2- The Yankees had a plan at the start of the year which was to open with Joba in the rotation and Hughes in the AAA rotation.  Pitch Joba until he gets close to his innnings limit and then bring Hughes up to fill his role.  If one of the other starters got hurt you still had Aceves and Kennedy in AAA waiting to help out.  Sitting here on July 24th, the Yankees haven't figured out what to do now that this plan is blown out of the water.  The problem with this theory is why would they have swapped Aceves back to the bullpen if this was true?

3- We are totally misreading this innings limit issue.  The Yankees used the number 140 last year, they haven't said a number this year and our guesses are way off and they intend to use him for 160 or 170 innings.  The problem with this theory is that the Yankees are very conservative with pitchers and they know the research shows you are risking injury if you jump a pitcher by more than 30 innings a year.  Joba pitched 112 innings in 2007 and 100 in 2008, would they really jump him up to 160 knowing that? 

So, three theories and three problems with them.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.   

July 23, 2009

Perfect!

Watching Mark Buehrle today reminded me of a day almost 15 years ago to this day.  July 28th, 1994, was the day I sat in the stands and saw a perfect game. 

Yup, I am one of the lucky few to have actually seen one in person.  I was living in Dallas, TX, at the time and I spent a large part of that summer going to the ballpark.  The strike was looming and wanting to see as much baseball as possible, a co-worker and I decided to go out to Arlington and catch a game.  

We got to the park and amazingly, there were no tickets left.  In Texas the baseball season usually ends when the Cowboys start training camp, but I think that summer people felt like they had better watch baseball while they had a chance.  Luckily, the Ballpark in Arlington (as it was called then) had a TGI Friday's built into the outfield.  You could walk in there and watch the game through the windows or from the special seating section they had in the upper deck.  For the first few innings we focused more on buffalo wings and beer than baseball, but around the fifth inning we realized what was going on and we headed out into the Texas heat to experience the game.  

The two events I remember vividly from that night are an amazing catch (like today) by Rusty Greer to save the perfecto and Bo Jackson coming up in the 7th or 8th inning.   Bo wasn't the player he had been at that point, but he was a scary sight at the dish.  I still remember him striking out and feeling an enormous sense of relief.  

One of my favorite things about baseball is that for one day you can attain perfection.  I was lucky enough to see it that day, I wish every fan got that chance. 

UPDATE: This made me laugh,  Yahoo Sports decided BJ Upton was Tampa's "top batter" with his 0-3 night.  In their defense it is hard to pick someone when they all go 0-3!

Eight Shopping Days Left?

A week from tomorrow brings a trading deadline that may be unlike any other in recent history.  Unlike any other because the economic climate in baseball has drastically changed.  July 31st marks the "non-waiver" trading deadline, meaning teams can make a trade without having to pass the player(s) through waivers first.  In past years, that was a pretty serious deadline because teams could claim any player put through waivers after July 31st to block that player from being traded.  But, the risk that the claiming team always chanced was the possibility that the team putting the player on waivers would simply let the claiming team take him and assume all his salary.  This happened to the Yankees with Jose Canseco in 2000.

In today's economic climate, I think a lot of teams will be very, very careful before putting in a waiver claim.  While young and inexpensive players will still get claimed, anyone with a higher salary will be a risky bet for the claiming team.  Teams could use the waiver process to try and lower their payroll.  Take Ron Mahay for example, decent reliever but nothing specia,l earning $4 million this year.  Normally, I would expect him to get claimed in waivers because contending teams wouldn't want him traded to a competitor who had a hole in their bullpen.  But, with a $4 million salary, I would bet there is a big chance the Royals would let a claiming team take him and walk away from the $1.75 million or so left on his deal. 

So, with that out of the way.  What do the Yankees need to do between now and the deadline, whenever it truly is? 

I think if you honestly assess this team the biggest weakness remains starting pitching.  The offense is good enough to win and there are enough spare parts on the bench and in the minors to cover holes that spring up.  Ditto that with the bullpen. If the right deal came along, I would totally jump at it, but these areas should not be a prioirty.  

The rotation is another story.  From what I have read, Wang seems like a longshot to come back this year and even if he does, he wasn't exactly setting the world on fire before he got hurt.  Pettitte and Joba looked great their last time out, but I think they are question marks the rest of the way.  Mitre is not a guy I want to bet on and even more concerning, what happens if another starter gets hurt?  The probable answer is you see Kei Igawa in the rotation and I don't think any of us want that.

That's why it is imperative in my mind that Cashman goes out and gets another starter.  We need a guy to who can plug a hole in the back of the rotation and provide 6-7 innings each time out. That should be his focus and his only focus over the next eight days.   

July 22, 2009

More on Adam LaRoche

One of the driving reasons behind the Red Sox acquisition of Adam LaRoche was most likely his career 1st half/2nd half splits.

1st half career: .252 avg, .326 obp, .447 slg, .773 OPS

2nd half career: .296 avg, .357 obp, .544 slg, .901 OPS.

Clearly a case of 2 different hitters.  The Red Sox are banking on him repeating his 2nd half surge.

In addition, his career OPS against righties is .847 and vs. lefties its .743.  So he is expected to see most of his time against righties.  Mike Lowell has hit righties at a .797 clip and lefties at a .851 clip (OPS).  Lowell's lob-sided OPS splits are even more extreme in 2009 (.758/.903).

So expect to see much less Mike Lowell in the line-up, specifically against righties.  This will serve Lowell well as it will allow him more time off to heal his hip and it will serve the Red Sox better because you'll have a near-platoon like situation at the corner infield positions that will be the best offensive line-up possible given their pieces.

While no official announcement has been made, I assume Mark Kotsay is gone.  He provided nice flexibility with his glove, but isn't much of a hitter these days.  His last decent offensive season was 2005.  That's a long time ago.  It's nice to say a player can play multiple positions, but if all he can do is field, then not so much.  A guy like Kevin Youkilis is great because he can handle both 3rd and 1st well and still put up a .950 OPS.

It is being reported that the Pirates are sending some cash along with LaRoche to offset his cost.

Obviously the Red Sox feel Rocco Baldelli is healthy enough to be the sole back-up outfielder.

A few overdue notes, with Tim Wakefield on the DL, Clay Buchholz is back up.  Good I say.  It seems so suspect that a spot would open for Buchholz this close to the deadline as I think the Red Sox will use his next 2 starts (after a successful start last week) as a means to gauge his potential in 2009.  If they like what they see, they will likely get rid of Brad Penny and/or John Smoltz.  Let's face it, Penny has received far too much positive press for a guy with a 5+ era and Smoltz just hasn't been sharp now with a 6+ era.

The Red Sox need to figure out if Buchholz will help them this year and now is the time to find out so they can react accordingly at the trade deadline.

My bets:  Buchholz wins a full time spot in the rotation and Penny is gone.  And if Matsuzaka can get healthy, Smoltz might get released.  Although I suspect Smoltz has a better chance of figuring things out than does Matsuzaka in 2009.

Word Has It...

UPDATE:  The 2 lucky winners of the "you might play in Pittsburgh someday" prize are:  Hunter Strickland and Argenis Diaz, according to WEEI.com.

Diaz is a low-hit, excellent fielding shortstop at AA Portland and Strickland is a starter at Mid-A Greenville.

...that the Red Sox have acquired Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates.  LaRoche has power, mediocre OBP and plays firstbase...and DH.  I've heard be plays the DH position very well.

No word yet on who they are giving up, but LaRoche will afford them more power off the bench and probably means Mark Kotsay's days are done here, no?  Also, with Kevin Youkilis's versatility, expect to see Mike Lowell sitting more often.

LaRoche is a free agent after the season and is making approx. $7.5mm this year.

I'll try to update when I can on the details.

I Can't See Cashman Doing This

Here's an amusing little story about the VP of Player Development for the Mets challenging the AA Mets to a fight.  At least he had the good sense to take his shirt off, you don't want to ruin your shirt in a rumble. 

July 21, 2009

Tomko Is Gone

I would like to thank Brian Cashman for making the right move tonight and DFA'ing Brett Tomko to make room for Sergio Mitre.  I don't know what Tomko had on Cashman, but I am glad it is over.  (Speaking of players who were kept in the bigs too long, did you see Berroa is now on the Mets?) 

Now I am having a problem with my 40-man math.  I had assumed the Yankees moved Nady to the 60-day DL when Hinske came aboard, but he is still listed on the 15-day DL.  I think that must be a mistake because either the Yankees only had 39 players on the 40-man before trading for Hinske or with tonight's move they still only have 39 players on the 40-man.  If that is indeed the case, why are they keeping a spot open?

If anyone can help me out with this, please let me know.   

Tuesday Trivia

What was the last trade between the Red Sox and Yankees? 

Thanks to Andy for giving me the idea.   

UPDATE: The answer is that the Yankees acquired Mike Stanley and Randy Brown for Tony Armas, Jr. and Jim Mecir.  

Worth A Look

I watched HBO's new documentary last night "Ted Williams" and I would encourage everyone to watch it.  It does a very good job of telling the story of Ted Williams and it doesn't shy away from some of the "tough" topics like what happened to Ted after he died. 

Among the things I found interesting.

The relationship between Ted and Boston.  I always knew it was rocky, but I didn't realize the extent of it or the fact that he was booed so viciously.  And, he did not react well to it at all.  You get the sense that if Ted Williams had played today he would have been run out of Boston.  Yet, time softened the divisions and Ted became loved in Boston which is well chronicled.  They even named a tunnel after him.  (On a side note, why didn't they name it after Bill Russell? He would have been my choice or Bobby Orr)  Nomar talks about how special it was to be a part of Ted's life.

I found the DiMaggio-Williams dynamic fascinating as well.  Not surprisingly, Joe was jealous of Ted and dismissed his accomplishments as "individual" efforts.  (On a side note, Ted and Joe really switched places after they stopped playing.  Williams became loved, DiMaggio has falled well out of favor as his true character has come to light.  Quick New Yorkers, what's the official name of the highway down the westside of Manhattan?  Does anyone call it that?) 

Dan Shaughnessy gives a very moving talk about his daughters fight with cancer and how great Ted Williams was through all of it despite the fact that Dan was part of the press.  

The relationship Ted had with his kids, especially John Henry is very interesting stuff. 

All in all it is a very good documentary and I think fans of all teams will enjoy it.   

July 20, 2009

Back To Even

And so once again the Yankees and Red Sox are all tied up for the AL East lead.  For the Yankees, 55-37 marks the high point of the season so far and their best record in relation to games over .500 since the end of the 2007 season.

So, with 70 games to go it is a dead heat.  Based on the news tonight, I still think the Yankees need to trade for a starter for the back of the rotation.  If they do that, I like their chances to pull this out. 

July 19, 2009

Out Of The Mouths Of Babes....

Phil Hughes said this after today's game:

"People think it’s easy. It’s not. We’re 23, we’re still learning. But I bet Joba remembers this game.” 

He's dead on.  For all the back and forth we have about Joba and Hughes and other young players, it's important to remember they are still just kids.  Sometimes that helps them, sometimes it hurts them, but hopefully they will learn and grow.  How good can Joba and Hughes be?  No one knows for sure, but today was another reminder of why you keep them around.   

Great weekend for the Yankees, exactly what you hoped to see coming out of the break.  Now they need to keep it going against Baltimore. 

July 17, 2009

Wrong Guy/Wrong Reason

The Yankees have decided to use Sergio Mitre in the rotation on Tuesday and with Wang only about to start throwing next week, he may be there awhile.  Alfredo Aceves will return to the rotation because Joe Girardi says "...we feel he is just too valuable to take him out of the bullpen right now."

Sigh, where to begin?  Well, let's start with Mitre who did not pitch well in the National League and walked way too many batters.  Maybe the Yankees will get a Chacon or Small clone, but odds are they will simply get someone who can't pitch in the AL.  

And the reason for Mitre over Aceves being that Aceves is too valuable in the bullpen makes me crazy.  Aceves is great in the pen, but he isn't closing games or even the primary setup guy.  To me that makes it obvious you put him in the rotation and find another guy to pitch long relief.  But, the Yankees aren't thinking that way and now we get to watch Mitre on Tuesday.

Pink Slip

Julio Lugo was designated for assignment today according to WEEI.  Being DFAed allows the Red Sox some time to work out a deal, although I really cannot expect any team to bite, after all, this was done for the purpose of opening up a roster spot.  Basically they said, we'll spend $13mm to make a spot.

This allows Clay Buchholz to join the team Friday night and if Aaron Bates gets demoted, we can expect to see Mike Lowell back as well.

As for Jed Lowrie, well he might not be here until Saturday which brings up the question, who is the back up middle infielder tonight?

Not A Shocker

According to Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays have told the Yankees and Sox they "much prefer" to trade Halladay outside of the AL East. 

Can you really blame them?  Trading him is going to be tough enough on that franchise and its fans, having to face him 5 times a year would be awful.  Unless the Yankees or Sox agree to trade prospects and take on Vernon Wells' contract, I don't see a deal being made in the AL East.  Much, much more likely in my mind that he ends up in St. Louis or Philadelphia.  In many ways this is a replay of the Santana deal.  Boston and New York are probably both rooting for a trade to the NL.   

And, today means it is two weeks to the deadline.  Get your hot stoves ready.   

Log Jam

Log Jam, as most of you know, is a delicious New England treat.  It is created by taking a roughly 35-foot pine and a 45-foot birch and mashing them together until you get jam...Log Jam.  It is very tasty on toast.

You can also make Log Jam by having an overpaid, under-skilled shortstop named Julio Lugo and trying to fit him on a major league 25-man roster with a more talented, younger  and much cheaper shortstop named Jed Lowrie.

When the Red Sox resume baseball activities Friday, they will quickly have to figure out what to do with Julio Lugo.  There has been much talk about this topic and the idea of a salary dump trade or an outright release of Lugo has been discussed.

No matter, Lugo is going to be gone.  We can discuss the good and bad of Lugo in depth, but he is not going to be part of this team.  The fact that journeyman Nick Green has been starting over a healthy Lugo is proof enough.

Right now, the Red Sox are just trying to find a taker.  Boston.com says they are just about willing to assume all of Lugo's salary ($13mm over the rest of 2008 and 2009) for even a marginal/breathing prospect.

I'm not sure why any team would trade anything for Lugo as he is certain to be released and then be available at virtually no cost (assuming no line to talk to Lugo's agents).

Imagine that, by the way, getting fired from your job and still getting $13mm.  That kind of money has the potential to be a multi-generational impact on a family.  Let's say you net $6mm of that deal accounting for your agent, the US Government, the State of Massachusetts and union dues, that could be invested conservatively and earn, what, 4-6% over a mid-long term period of time (difficult in these low-rate times I know, but mid-long term).

That is serious interest that could fund many, many things and as long as no knuckleheads get control over finances, wow, a life changing event.  Then consider Lugo signed a $36mm deal and the net being much higher...just insane cash.  Now, if a knucklehead does get involved, yikes, get ready for business as usual for a family...and many lawsuits.

Back to the Red Sox, Lugo is going to be gone and the Red Sox are going to be better for it.  I'm not convinced Lowrie is 100%, but if he is, expect a hitter who can hit for medium power (15-20 Hr) and make a pitcher work at the same time.  In addition, he is no defensive liability.

Also, look for Clay Buchholz for a spot start Friday night.  I've heard this might be a "showcase" start for the Blue Jays so the Red Sox can trade for Roy Halladay, but I think this is more a showcase to see if he can help the Red Sox in 2009, thus allowing them to trade a starter for more offense.

Anyway, enjoy your New England Log Jam, so tasty.

July 15, 2009

Have I Told You Lately...

...that I love you?

Joe Madden, you could not have been a better All-Star game manager Tuesday night.  As a Red Sox fan, I cannot think of a better outcome.  Let me tell you why:

 - Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield didn't pitch.

 - Jonathan Papelbon threw only 10 pitches.

 - Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay combined to go 2-3 and Dustin Pedroia stayed home.

The All-Star break is always a bunch of fun and it is good for baseball, but for a fan rooting for a team in contention, there is always the worry of overuse or injury.  The Red Sox leave St. Louis in good shape.

Interesting to hear the players talk about meeting the President.  George Bush owned a baseball team, but Barack Obama seems to be far more the sports fan than any other President I can remember.  Not a political stance by any means, just an observation.  He trotted out with a White Sox jacket on, in St. Louis, and he seems to enjoy talking about sports in general.

July 14, 2009

You Really Want This Guy?

Ok, so big game and a 2-0 lead and Halladay can't protect it?  This guy wouldn't last two minutes in the Northeast!

(I kid, I kid)   

Interesting Take

Thought I would share this piece I found in the Toronto papers about the potential trade of Ray Halliday.

I would imagine Toronto would ask the Yankees for Hughes, Jackson, Montero and someone else in exchange for Halladay and that is way too high a price in my mind.  

But, you never know how these talks will progress.  Considering the state of the economy, teams that normally would bid on Halladay may be scared off.  The Blue Jays' stance of not allowing teams to "open the window" with Halladay, may also hurt negotiations.  

Who knows what will happen, but I both Yankees and Red Sox fans should expect to be overwhelmed with Halladay stories between now and August 1st.   

Comments

Just wanted to respond via a post to an email I got about comments and why we require registration to leave one.

First off, we love comments, make as many as you like.  What we don't love are spammers.  I don't know about you, but I don't need any drugs from a Mexican pharmacy and my wife would probably be upset if I ordered one of those Russian brides.  Those are just some of the offers we get many, many times on a daily basis here at YankeesRedsox.com.  We have had days with over 100 of these types (and much worse types) of comments and to prevent them from actually being posted, we require registration.

You can do that by creating a Type Key ID and Password and post under those or just put your comment up and we will approve it manually (usually a few hours later)  Maybe one day the internet will be free of these annoyances and maybe one day the Cubs will win the World Series.  You just never know.

Tuesday Trivia (All-Star Edition)

Ok, so a few questions today to get you ready for tonight's game.

1- When was the last time the National League won the All-Star Game?

2- Who was the first Yankee to be named All-Star MVP?

3- Who was the last Red Sox to be named All-Star MVP?

BTW- check out Joel Sherman's ideas on how to make the HR contest better.   Some are clever and I am all for aluminum bats if they put nets around the stands and use a pitching machine.  Otherwise it is just too dangerous. 

July 13, 2009

At The Break

I find context to be vastly underused by most reporters (and bloggers) in New York.  We spend way too much time reacting to the day-to-day triumphs and tribulations that we don't look enough at the big picture, so let me put my spin on where the Yankees stand.

In 2008 they were 50-45 at the break having lost three-of-four to Toronto and Pittsburgh.  That team had Rasner and Ponson in the rotation and Molina as an everyday catcher.  Melky Cabrera was in center every day and hitting .247/.306/.350.  

In 2009 the Yankees are 51-37 just having been swept by the Angels.  Yes, there are some problems in the rotation right now, but other than that, what worries you compared to other teams?  Are Hughes and Rivera a great combination at the back of the bullpen?  Does the lineup have enough juice?   I would say yes to both questions and when you boil it down, isn't it true that the Yankees simply don't beat the Angels just lke the Twins don't beat the Yankees? 

I am not trying to make light of the Yankees' issues, but I also feel very differently about this team than the 2008 edition.  In 2008 I was questioning if the Yankees should buy or sell at the trade deadline.  There is no question about that in my mind now, the Yankees are in this to win. 

So, what do they need to do?  I think the biggest thing is finding another starter.  I am not buying Wang will be back soon and even if he does come back, will he pitch any better?  Throw in the fact that Joba is having major growing pains and Pettitte suddenly looks washed up (take away his first four starts and his season is really bad) and you need a starter.  Now, I am not suggesting they mortgage the future for one.  I don't think they need to empty the farm for Roy Halladay.  I think they need a guy who can give them innings and therefore rest the pen.  Personally, I think that guy could be Aceves, but the Yankees seem set on bringing Mitre to the Bronx. I think Mitre will get eaten alive by the AL East.

So, if the Yankees insist on going that route, I hope Cashman is working the phones on a trade that costs little more than money.  For instance, would Arizona be willing to part with Doug Davis if the Yankees ate his remaining salary?  Davis isn't going to light the world on fire, but he could probably give the Yankees 6-7 innings a start and an ERA around 4.50.  Davis is in the last year of a deal that will pay him $8.75 million so if the Yankees took on that contract I can't imagine they would have to give up much of a prospect.  And while it is only the NL, he does have a 3.41 ERA this season. 

July 10, 2009

What Does Brett Tomko Have On Brian Cashman?

How do you explain the Yankees' decision to send Albie to the minors and keep Tomko?  Now both players have ERA's around 5.  But, since Albie was recalled he has pitched four scoreless with four K's.  Tomko is 36, Albie is 26.  One of them might still have some potential.  The other one doesn't and is on the decline phase of his career.

Chalk me up as clueless on this one.  I guess the Yankees just love Brett Tomko.   

 

A Boston Halladay?

As you should know by this point, Toronto is listening to offers for their ace Roy Halladay.  Without question, he'd look great in a Red Sox uniform, but is that the right move?

First, it is important to know he has a full no-trade clause and has one year left beyond 2009 on his contract, so an acquiring team would have him for about a season and a half.

The Red Sox, or any team, would have to come up with 2 top prospects and maybe a 3rd or a current major leaguer.  At least one of those prospects would have to be a pitcher.  The idea being Toronto would want to replace their ace with at least someone who could develope into an ace.  So Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson and maybe Manny Delcarmen would be a starting offer.  The Red Sox certainly have the prospects, but do they need Halladay that badly?

Again, of course they need him, any team would, but all we've heard in 2009 is the glut of starters on the Red Sox.  With Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Penny and Smoltz (and Matsuzaka ready to return in a month and Buchholz willing and able at Pawtucket), the Red Sox might be best off using their trading chips for help in their line-up.  Mike Lowell is not a guarantee and if he does not come back 100%, there is no back-up plan that is acceptable.  I'm sorry, but Kevin Youkilis at 3rd and Mark Kotsay at 1st won't cut it.  Kotsay hits like a, well, a back-up.

I'd make an offer for Halladay offering some lesser talent and let Toronto say "no thank you" and then evaluate Lowell and company for the next 2 weeks and then focus on the biggest need.  If at that time it's starting pitching that's in need, and Halladay is still available, then upgrade the offer.  But I wouldn't rush into a Halladay when there might be bigger worries elsewhere.

Also, the Red Sox have reportedly signed Cuban defector Jose Iglasias (not Julio's son I'd be willing to bet) to an $8 million deal.  He is supposedly a smooth defensive shortstop, but his bat is questionable.  That's a ton of money on a good glove (I hope these words haunt me).

July 09, 2009

Why Not?

I mentioned it the other night, but why wouldn't the Yankees send Aceves to the minors today?  If they did send him, they would not be able to recall him until 10 days from the assignment. 

But, Aceves is not going to be able to help the Yankees until after the All-Star Break.  That means he will be out until at least July 17th, eight days from tonight no matter what you do with him.  If you send him down, he could return July 20th, or after missing three games he would have been eligible to play in.

When you add in the fact that the Yankees need a starter for July 21st and Aceves is the best candidate, what is the downside here?  Send Aceves to the minors and let him pitch there this week to build up his arm.  Get another pitcher for the bullpen in case you need him this weekend.   Pitch Aceves on the 21st with a bigger ptich count than he had today (65).  Seriously, why wouldn't you do this?  Please chime in because I can't figure this out. 

UPDATE: The Yankees are making a move according to the papers this morning, Mark Melancon is on the way up.  The only question is who is getting sent down.  

The Lefty Specialist

Some people on the radio this morning and in the papers have been killing Phil Coke for giving up that home run to Mauer last night.  Considering that Mauer is hitting .384/.459/.639 no pitcher should hang his head after getting beaten by him, but the argument seems to be that Coke's job is to be a lefty specialist and he failed at his job.

My problem is that the numbers say that is not necessarily the best job description for Coke.  There is no denying that Coke is tough on lefties.  For his career he has held them to a line of .186/.212/.351.  The problem is he has been tougher on righties, holding them to a line of .147/.256/.240.  One thing that really jumps out at you with Coke is that while he is more likely to strikeout a lefty batter, 104 faced with 29 K's, he is also more likely to give up a home run to one, 4 lefties have left the park.  Against righties, Coke has allowed only one homer in 87 plate appearances.  

And that's my problem with Girardi pigeonholing Coke as a lefty specialist, it does not use him effectively because Coke's numbers are spectacular either side of the plate.  Now in the current pen, both Robertson and Aceves are actually tougher on lefties than righties (the difference is small but there) yet neither one of them would be used as a "lefty specialist" because they are righties.  Coke shouldn't be either, he should be used as one of the best bets in the bullpen to get anybody out.  

For now, if Girardi wants to use him against lefties, that's fine.  But, he shouldln't use him for a lefty and pull him, chances are he is going to a worse, right-handed, option than Coke.  When Marte comes back, that's your lefty specialist because lefties have hit .200/.297/.292 against him in his career while righties have hit .241/.329/.394

The problem is Marte is making $4 million a year and Coke pitches for the league minimum.  Will Girardi ignore that and use Marte against a batter or two with Coke pitching more innings?  One can only hope so.   

 

 

July 08, 2009

Really?

I got a kick out of this story about Molina being activated and Cervelli sent down, specifically this quote: "But at 23 years old, Cervelli cannot yet match Molina's offensive production"

First, what does being 23 have to do with it?  Albert Pujols hit pretty well at that age, so did a lot of players.

But more importantly, Cervelli has matched Molina's offenisve production.  For his career Molina is a .238/.278/.340 hitter.  Cervelli (admittedly in only 78 AB's) is .269/.284/.346, pretty much the same as Molina.  Plus, Cervelli is much better on the bases and he threw out 48% of the runners trying to steal on him.

Cervelli is going to go down to AAA and play everyday.  Much like they did with Pena, this is the right move for the 2010 Yankees.  Presumeably, Cervelli has shown the Yankees enough that he will be the backup in 2010 and Molina will be free to look elsewhere.  For 2009, it is debatable that this is the right move, but I don't think it makes enough of a difference to debate it. However, if the Yankees are asked about trading Molina, they should not hesitate.

One other note about catchers.  Jesus Montero has a .505 slugging percentage in Trenton- a notorious pitcher's  park.  It's too early to put a lot of stock in that, but if he keeps that up Cervelli will have some serious competition for the backup spot in 2010. 

July 07, 2009

Aceves To The Rotation- My Plan

The Yankees have decided to let Aceves take the start on Thursday.  I am not a huge fan of this decision because Aceves pitched Sunday, throwing 43 pitches.  How much will he have available on three-days rest Thursday?  Plus, using him Thursday basically takes him out of action this weekend and leaves the bullpen exposed if they need innings in LA this weekend.  (Not exactly a long shot with Joba starting Friday)

So, here's what I hope the Yankees do with Aceves.  Pitch him as long as he can go on Thursday and then immediately demote him to Staten Island after the game.  Staten Island is one of the few clubs that is playing next week, versus taking a break for an All-Star Game.  The Yankees could then start Aceves on regular rest (July 14th) in the minors and bulid up his pitch count.  He has to stay in the minors for ten days, but the Yankees would not need him to start again until July 21st, so that wouldn't be a problem since they could activate him in time.  You could recall an arm from Scranton for this upcoming weekend (Ramirez, Clagget or Melnacon) and therefore not leave yourself short in the pen. 

By doing this plan you get the best of both worlds.  Aceves becomes the starter in place of Wang and you don't leave yourself short in the pen.  That's what I call win-win.   

Tuesday Trivia

Ok, new feature here at YR.com, Tuesday Trivia.  Each week I will post a baseball question and give you 24 hours to answer in the comments.  Sometimes they will be Yankees related (like this week) but not always.

Anyway, here is the first question:

How many former Rookies of the Year have played for the Yankees in 2009?  As a bonus, name them. 
 

July 06, 2009

Bates Motel

The Red Sox called up Aaron Bates to take the place of Jeff Bailey (ankle sprain, DL stint).  Bates is a bit of a surprise as he was just promoted to AAA Pawtucket and has struggled going .182/.273/.295 in 99 plate appearances.

Bates did crush the ball earlier this year while with AA Portland posting .340/.405/.505 in 232 PAs.

More surprising is that Bates is being thrust into the mix playing 1b tonight and hitting 9th.  Terry Francona certainly does like to get his players involved.  Mark Kotsay, the other obvious 1b, was quoted on Boston.com as saying he has a calf issue and just needs to take it easy for a bit.

The Boston Globe ran a piece on Bates about a month ago and what has lead to his recent success.

Another interesting note is the return of Nomar Garciaparra.  This will mark his first return to Fenway.  I believe he was on the DL when another team of his played in Boston, but this should be the first time he actually confronts the Fenway Faithful.  My bet is a standing ovation.  Time heals...

 

July 05, 2009

How About Pedro?

There are few guys who Yankees' fans have hated more over the past 15 years than Pedro Martinez.  The guy was an amazing pitcher with an enormous ego, two things that didn't endear him to New York crowds.  And there was the infamous brawl at Fenway where Pedro and Don Zimmer mixed it up. 

But, Johnny Damon wasn't exactly a fan favorite pre-2006 and Roger Clemens and Wade Boggs were welcomed in the Bronx, so why not Pedro?  At this point he is asking for a pro-rated deal of $5 million, or about $2.5 million to pitch the remainder of the season.  Now, I don't know what the scouts are saying, but if he has shown that he can throw, why not take a chance on him?  

At this point the Yankees are going to pick a fifth starter out of a hat and since that is where we are, why not try Pedro?  Yeah he costs some money, but that isn't a problem for the Yankees.  Plus, if he pitches well and Wang returns, can you imagine having Pedro in the bullpen?  It's all probably way too far-fetched for Brian Cashman, but it would be pretty wild to see. 

July 04, 2009

Uh-Oh

The Yankees are going to have to keep their fingers crossed on Chien-Ming Wang, because if he is hurt they don't have a lot of apparent answers for who takes his spot in the rotation.  You have to assume that Hughes isn't in shape to start anymore and could probably only last 2-3 innings.  Aceves could probably throw 40-50 pitches, but that isn't going to get it done.  Brett Tomko is probably in the same boat.

In the minors, Ian Kennedy is recovering from surgery and the other guys on the 40-man roster are either in AA or relievers right now.  That means we are going to have to find someone else and the first name that comes to mind is...gulp..Kei Igawa.  Now I suggested trying Igawa over Tomko a few weeks ago and I am sticking to that idea.  Worst thing that happens is you add him to the 40-man, he starts and gets bombed.  You can then pass him through waivers, or gladly see another team claim him and his $10 million remaining salary, and send him back to the minors.  

If the Yankees don't go that route, Sergio Mitre is probably the answer.  Five starts with Scranton and a 3.26 era.  Other than that, there isn't much.  I guess it is too bad Casey Fossum signed with the Iowa Cubs yesterday.   

UPDATE: Per Pete Abe, Wang to the DL  As he also points out they need a starter for Thursday and then have the All-Star Break.  They could then use the break to insure that Wang's spot doesn't come up again until July 21st. Technically, he could return from the DL in time for that start, but of course he won't.  Unfortunately, the Yankees come out of the break with 17-straight games so they will need someone at that point.

July 01, 2009

A Sensible Approach

Kudos to Joe Girardi for tonight's lineup.  Against a tough lefty he moved Cano down to 6 (not a bad idea no matter who is pitching) and he let A-Rod DH instead of Matsui. 

I imagine it didn't escape the Yankees notice that Mike Lowell went on the DL yesterday because of his hip.  Lowell had the full operation last offseason and was "worn down a bit" (his manager's words)  It doesn't sound like Lowell will be out long, but the point is having this surgery and playing baseball may not be the best combination.  

It probably also didn't escape the Yankees' notice that A-Rod has been a different player since getting his mini-vacation in Florida.  He is 11-31 with 4 homers and keeping him fresh has to be a priority over the remainder of the season.  

That's why the addition of Eric Hinske is great.  I know everyone is jumping on the "Hinske can't play third well" bandwagon, but really so what?  The guy has played there before and even the best third basemen in the game only turn something close to three outs a game.   I am not suggesting they use Hinske if Wang is on the mound and I would definitely get someone else in there if the game is close, but for one start a week against a righty pitcher, he should be fine.

The biggest test of A-Rod will be when the Yankees head to Minnesota next week.  The Twins of course play on turf and that is not something great for tender players.  The rotation is currently setup to have Wang pitch Thursday and I would want A-Rod playing third for that, but maybe they can get Hinske out there for Tuesday and Wednesday.  

It will be interesting to see how Girardi uses A-Rod from this point forward.  Hopefully the addition of Hinske makes him more comfortable resting him.  If not, Brian Cashman has to step in and mandate that he does.