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The Skinny

The Red Sox officially announced the signing of Rocco Baldelli.  While no details were given, Boston.com says it is believed to be a 1-year deal for a base of $500,000.  If he makes the roster, there is a roster bonus of $1.75mm which is paid out based on the period of time he stays on the active roster and further incentives which could make his total compensation $7.5mm.  So pay for performance.

As for John Smoltz, according to Boston.com, he'll sign a $5mm base with incentives that could bring the total value to $10mm.  A larger commitment to be sure, but not outrageous considering it is a 1-year deal.

Lastly, Brad Penny is/was scheduled to have his team physical today which is all that is in the way of having his previously reported deal announced.

Here's the skinny:  The Red Sox now have a rotation of Jon Lester, Josh Becket, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny and John Smoltz (sooner or later).  In addition, they potentially have Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and perhaps Justin Masterson.

It boils down that they Red Sox have added enough starting pitching depth to allow them to trade a young arm for something nice.  Be it Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson or another arm or 2 in the minors, they don't need to worry about the 2009 rotation, at least I hope they don't.

So I see between now and July 1st the Red Sox pulling off a major deal of some kind.  I'm not sure what they will target although a catcher is probably the first thought.  Being that any catcher they can acquire will likely be a young and largely unproven catcher, I'm not sure I consider that a major deal.  The kind of deal I am expecting would involve a well known offensive player.

Why a full month prior to the trade deadline?  Like many, Theo Epstein uses the first 2 months of the season to evaluate the team and unless there is something glaring, he'll probably be thoughtful about things.  He'll use June to find a dance partner and then bang something out.

Who you ask?  I haven't the faintest idea.  But as I see the potential health issues of many of the Red Sox regulars (Drew, Lowell and Ortiz) and the potential for below replacement value offense from the catching corp and the lack of immediate help at Pawtucket as a reason to trade for help.

Comments

From your admiring mother. GO RED Sox! -Mom!

Andy? It almost HAS to be a catcher for you guys. That's your biggest need right now. Tek looked terrible ...

Assuming September games matter for the Sox, having Smoltz around to have some of the kids learn from will be a huge benefit not covered in his incentives.

Smoltz will be loved in Boston, absolutely, 100% appreciation will be given to him. It is overblown that this guy or that guy are ultra competitive. Smoltz is on another level. He is also courteous and does not make excuses.

If he makes 15 starts for the Sox, consider it a win.

If it allows them to make a deal to fill a gap, awesome.

Mom,

Thanks.

-Andy Son

Mitchell,

I think catcher is the biggest need, but the major trade I'm thinking about probably won't be for a catcher. The catcher transaction will be big, but what if it is to sign Greg Zaun or trade for a mid-level guy. That'll get a warm body behind the plate, but I'm not sure this is value out there right now so they might settle on solid defense with average catcher bat right now.

My big trade theory is like a Josh Beckett or Curt Schillng (2003) type acquisition.

I have no idea if they make a trade, but, if they do, it would be around the trade deadline. That group of starters is a lot of nice names, but not a lot of reliability. Smoltz? Hurt last year. Beckett? Hurt last year. Penny? Hurt last year. Wake? Old. Buch? Unproven. Lester should be someone that you can bank on. Dice-K, i think, will settle somewhere between his 07 and 08. He had the same WHIP both years, with drastically different results.


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