Nady vs. Swisher
It seems pretty clear from all the rumors out there that the Yankees are going to trade either Swisher or Nady before the season starts. To me, there is only one clear path to choose and that is trading Nady. I base this on three facts.
1- Swisher is a career .244/.354/.451 hitter while Nady is a career .280/.334/.458 hitter. Nady is better in two categories, but since the slugging percentage difference is only .007, I believe the OBP difference is the key. Plus, you can look at equivalent average for their careers and see that Swisher is a .282 hitter and Nady is a .275 hitter. (Equivalent Average is a Baseball Prospectus tool that in their own words is, "A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching." So obviously the higher the better.
2- Swisher is two years younger than Nady and is signed through at least 2011 (the Yankees hold a $10.25 option on 2012) Nady is going to arbitration this year and will get a big raise from the $3.5 he made last year. He will then be a free agent after 2009. So, Swisher provides some cost cetainty
3- Swisher can play four positions (1B, RF, LF, CF) and other than CF he plays them all at average or above defensively and he can hit from both sides of the plate. Nady really can only play LF and RF right now, though he did play some 1B a few seasons ago and he is a righty.
It is a nice problem to have and I wouldn't rush to trade either one of them. The Yankees don't know for sure yet if Matsui's knee will hold up. They also have no clue is Gardner will hit like he did in Septmeber or the way he did prior to September. So, what's the harm in keeping him around for now? Sure Nady is an expensive fourth outfielder, but he is worth it unless you can exchange him for parts that can help you in 2009. That's the test for me. If the Yankees can go out and get some pieces to add to the 2009 bench for him, trade him. Otherwise, I say keep him around and see how things go.
Comments
Peter, I agree using the total stat package of these two, but when you look at their offense in the past 2 seasons, Nady has gone: .293/.345/.495/.840 while Swisher has posted .241/.358/.433/.792
The gap has narrowed in OBP, but the SLG and overall OPS has better for Nady. Tought call in my opinion.
I like Nady's make-up more than I do Swisher's, but his ability to draw a walk is nice.
Posted by: Andy | January 9, 2009 10:33 PM |
What do you mean about his make-up? Is there something negative about Swisher's personality that I am missing?
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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January 10, 2009 08:32 AM
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No, at least I don't think so.
My reason for saying that is when I watch him play, I don't see a ton of hustle.
Also, he got off to such a promising start to his career and was certainly highly touted, I would have expected more by this point.
Probably an unfair/unsophisiticated thing for me to say.
Anyway, what do you think about those numbers?
Posted by: Andy | January 10, 2009 10:43 AM |
Are those actual numbers or did you just average the two seasons together?
Anyway, Nady's do look better in that context, but his lack of walks still worries me. Over the last two seasons Swisher has drawn over 100 more walks than Nady. Swisher also has seen on average about 1/2 a pitch more per plate appearance which shows that he is a more patient hitter. As you know, hitters who don't control the strikezone usually fall apart faster than those who do.
In addition, Swisher has had BABIP of .301 and .249 the last two years with Nady at .318 in 2007 and .363/.290 (Pirates and Yankees) in 2008. So when Nady hits the ball, better things have happened in the past two seasons and that is generally a function of luck more than anything else.
I don't dislike Nady and as I said, I would keep him unless I get a great offer. But, I would prefer to keep Swisher over him if I had only one to choose from.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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January 10, 2009 12:16 PM
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Did I just average them together?
Come on Peter, you must take me for a doofus. Jeesh. Feel free to check my work.
Posted by: Andy | January 10, 2009 02:02 PM |
No, if you did it I trust it.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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January 10, 2009 02:48 PM
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How about platooning Swisher and Nady in right? Swisher can also create some extra at bats by doing some rotations at DH and 1B. Given health and age issues regarding Matsui and Damon and big question marks about Cabrera/Gardner, they can't afford to let go of either player.
Also, Swisher had a horrible year last year. Why would you stake everything on him given Nady's excellent performance last year?
Posted by: Corey | January 10, 2009 04:54 PM |
Heres both their stats from 2004-2007:
Swisher: .251/.361/.464 with 80 homers and 255 RBIs'in 1617 AB's.
Nady: .273/.329/.455 with 53 homers and 187 RBI's in 1302 AB's.
Either way, the point might be moot as this buyers market might it tough to find someone willing to part with a young position prospect for either.
Posted by: ian![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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January 10, 2009 07:18 PM
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I see both sticking around and I think Swisher has a very good chance of winning the CF job with Melky being a very good 4th OF.
Damon/Swisher/Nady Matsui-DH
I agree with the original post, I think we'll end up needing Nady more than what we can get for him. If Nady becomes expendable it means that Gardner and/or Melky were "lights out" in camp. That would be great but I'm not optimistic.
Posted by: Tim | January 11, 2009 08:44 PM |