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January 31, 2009

Two Weeks!

There is a great story about Joe Dimaggio and the song "Mrs. Robinson".  It seems when Joe first heard the lyric, "Where have you gone, Joe Dimaggio?  Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you..." he didn't like it because he thought it was making fun of him in someway.  But that wasn't Paul Simon's intent, instead he was mourning the lack of heroes at a turbulent time in history (the 1960's).  I have been thinking of that story a lot recently as I have watched the news.  Baseball has a remarkable ability to provide some joy in dark times and we could really use some joy right now. 

I think of the great character Terrence Mann (played by the magnificent James Earl Jones) in "Field of Dreams" and his wonderful speech about the game.

"The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again."

This game is part of the literary fabric of our country, ir is part of our soul.  We need it now, more than we have needed it in a long time.  And in two short weeks, pitchers and cathers will report.  Games start in less than four weeks and Opening Day is just over two months away.

I cannot begin to guess when the economy will get better and when this country will pull out of this funk, but I know having baseball back will help, if only a little. 

January 30, 2009

In the Fold?

UPDATE:  Heyman/Boras is now saying the a two-year deal has been agreed to.  Good.  Now let's trade for Varitek's eventual replacement and get to playing some baseball.

The Globe's Tony Massarotti has it as a 1-year deal for $5mm and team option for a 1-year, $5mm or a player option for 1-year, $3mm.  Plus incentives for games played starting at 80 games for the 2nd year.  The incentives total $2mm.

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald just confirmed the parameters of the deal (same as Massarotti's).

------------ 

Scott Boras, er...I mean, Jon Heyman is reporting on SI.com that the Red Sox and Jason Varitek are on the verge of a 2-year deal.  To quote "Jason Varitek is on the verge of agreeing to a two-year deal with Boston."

I can see him now.

Theo: "Jason, so what do you think?"

Varitek: "I'm thinking about it.  I'm on the verge, but not quite there yet."

Theo: "Well are you like, say, 90% there or are we going to be here for a while?"

Varitek: "No, 'on the verge' means like 99%, I just like to make a grand entrance with these sorts of things and want to time it perfectly..."

Anyway, Heyman and Boras have never been seen in the same room, right?

Will This Never End?

WEEI is reporting that a Red Sox source indicated today that there was no 8:30am deadline today for Jason Varitek to make up his mind.  In addition, Tony Massarotti said 8:30am here is 5:30am for Scott Boras on the Left Coast and that perhaps the Red Sox were willing to take that into account.

But if WEEI did indeed speak to a Red Sox source, then that is as close as you can get (unless you are assuming the Red Sox are trying to trick Varitek by floating misleading rumors).  And, if so, we are possibly in for a longer wait than expected.  This really is getting old...

Is Carlton Fisk in game shape?

January 29, 2009

Word on the Street

I feel obligated to bring up what has become one of the most tedious negotiations in Red Sox history.  In one corner you have an aging Jason Varitek, he of the poor decision making agent.  In the other corner you have the Red Sox, a team not overly enthusiastic about entering Spring Training with Josh Bard and either George Kottaras or Dusty "No I'm Not a Stripper" Brown.  Tony Massarotti of Boston.com says Varitek has until 8:30am Friday to make up his mind.

Look, the Red Sox need Jason Varitek and he needs them.

If it is pride getting in Varitek's way, please, times are tough right now, and I'm only talking about in the world of baseball.  On the other hand, if the Red Sox are trying to make some point to Varitek or his agent Scott Boras, then they hurting the team and that's no good.

Just get a deal done.  I had suggested 2 years for $15mm a few weeks back and while that seems much higher than the reported offer the Red Sox have made (his choice of a 1-year at $5mm or 1-year at $5mm with a 2nd year team option at $5mm or a player option at $3mm), it would seem to be a deal that both sides could accept.  Even a 2-year, $12mm deal would mean that the Red Sox have a veteran receiver coming into camp along side Josh Bard.

WEEI reported today that Varitek was considering either sitting out the 2009 season or retiring all together.  The "sitting out the 2009 season" idea is crazy as he only needs to sit out until June and then any team can sign him without giving up a 1st round pick.  The retirement scenario is possibly more likely, but after getting divorced this past off-season, I have to assume his pockets are a bit lighter than they were this time a year ago and a few million more in income might help.  Please, he likes playing baseball, right?

At the end of the day, I really don't care the thoughts rattling around Varitek's head.  Just sign the deal and go play baseball for one more year (or two).  Baseball spending is down about 50% this off-season and as such, he shouldn't be too concerned with signing a deal that represents an annual pay cut of 50%.  Especially with the lousy numbers he posted in 2008.

Just agree and go have fun Varitek.  Otherwise, at 8:30am Friday morning, you might be looking for a new line of work.

January 28, 2009

You Can See Where This Is Headed

The Yankees are apparently ready to start censoring their players in the future.  The money quote is this from an "unamed official": "Up to now, we have always operated our employer-employee relationships on a basis of trust.  But we never expected what we got from Joe. We may have to get a little tougher on this issue."

It is silly to get tougher on this issue and it is silly to react at all.  Torre is the one who comes off the worst in this and it is easy to question Verducci's motives in this book. (Verducci used to work for the YES Network, but was fired after writing this. I think the Yankees would have been best served by just ignoring this and letting Torre try and explain why he felt the need to do this in the first place. 

But, they didn't do that and now I wonder when the Yankees take the more obvious step.  When do they take #6 and put it on the back of someone else?  We always assumed that Torre would return to New York someday and have his number retired, but I think that is a distant dream now.  The Yankees are pissed, Torre is hurt and I don't see how either side moves past this. 

Maybe with time the two sides will reconcile, but I have a feeling that #6 will have been given away long before that.   

January 26, 2009

Not Bad

So Pettitte is back for a base of $5.5 million and a possible $6.5 million in bonuses.  I looked all over, but the best I could do was find that $4.5 million of that is based on innings and $2 million on days on the active roster. 

The deal evokes a couple of reactions from me.  First, bringing Andy back really helps the rotation.  Now the Yankees have the depth needed to survive an 162-game season and we won't have to suffer through a bunch of scrubs making spot starts like last year. 

One concern I have is that this signing will restart the Joba to the bullpen chants.  I hope the Yankees don't fall for that line of thinking.

Another concern I have is how this will impact Phil Hughes. Will the Yankees use him out of the bullpen or is he destined for AAA?  I would prefer he sticks in AAA and continues to develop as a starter.  

Who gets dropped from the 40-man as a result of this move?  Maybe Giese or Chase Wright?  I have no idea.

Lastly, if Pettitte stinks and the Yankees bench him thereby preventing him from achieving his incentives, will he be able to handle that?

Enough with the negative, a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Pettitte and Joba has to be one of the best in the league.  Now, a real backup catcher and I will be absolutely content. (At least for a few minutes)

Pettitte

Several sources are reporting that the Yankees and Andy Pettitte are closing in on a deal.

Per Buster Olney - 1 year deal for $6mm base and up to $6mm in incentives.

Per Jon Heyman - 1 year deal for less than the $10mm guaranteed they offered earlier but otherwise no details.

Per Ken Rosenthal - 1 year deal for $6mm base and up to $10mm in incentives.

Reports are suggesting a deal could be announced this afternoon.

Countdown

The countdown starts.  Sure I could be talking about pitchers and catchers reporting, but I'm really talking about Jason Varitek.

Reports are out that the Red Sox have offered Varitek a 1-year deal with a guarantee base and incentives and a 2nd year option.  Varitek has been given a deadline to accept the offer.

Per WEEI, the offer is a 1-year, $5mm deal with a team option for a 2nd year at $5mm or a player option at $3mm.  The incentive portion of the deal is not known at this time (nor is any of the above necessarily, just reporting on published reporting...).

WEEI also pulled quotes from ESPN's Buster Olney who wrote over the weekend that Varitek is asking for $10-$12mm annually over 2 years.

Wow.  If Varitek thinks he is going to get anything close to that, he's nuts.  I cannot imagine that is really what he is looking for and must have come to the conclusion that if he wants to play for the Red Sox, or any other MLB team, he is going to get a big hair cut in 2009.

Jorge Posada signed one of the most absurd deals prior to the 2008 season.  There is no way to argue that it was a good deal, especially since year one is in the books and Posada could only provide 168 at bats.  Varitek must have seen that deal and thought he was worth something close to that.

But times have changed.  Mix in the fact that Varitek had a bad year with the bat in 2008, the economy is in the pits and teams are spending accordingly (most anyway) and the biggest fact that most teams have always known is that catchers don't age well.  Carlton Fisk was a freak of nature, but he is not the norm by any means.  These factors essentially mean Varitek can take whatever the Red Sox offer,  walk away and sign with someone else, or...retire.

I hope he signs.  I think he is a good person to have teach the other catchers in the organization.  But if the Red Sox do manage to re-sign him, I hope they also trade for a better future option at catcher than they presently have in their system.  What good is Varitek working with Josh Bard?  None.  Varitek needs to work with his eventual replacement.

January 25, 2009

Bad News And A Bit Of Good News

Let's start with a happy note, Robinson Cano is in shape and ready to play the season.  As Kat O'Brien notes in this piece, Cano was not in shape at the start of the season last year.  Getting a good year from Robbie is vital to the Yankees' chances in 2009. 

Now on to the bad news and it is pretty bad.  Joe Torre's tell-all book is coming out and it sounds like it is going to spill a lot of dirt.  It is hard to judge the book until it is actually released, but hearing that A-Rod was referred to as "A-Fraud" by his teammates is not going to help the 2009 Yankees.  A-Rod is obiviously delicate and I would imagine a million questions about his relationship with his teammates and former manager will put him on a bad path at the start of the season.  Hopefully, Torre focuses most of his ire against management, but the A-Rod stuff is damaging enough. 

What I wonder is why Joe felt the need to do this?  By leaving the way he did and refusing to take shots at George, he proved he was the bigger man.  Now, it sounds like he is going to stoop to George's level and that's a shame.  I can't blame him for wanting to lash out, I just wish he hadn't. 

January 23, 2009

State Of The Pitching Staff

Barring a change of heart from both Andy Pettitte and the Yankees, this is the staff the 2009 Yankees will use:

SP's Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Joba and Hughes (could be Aceves or Kennedy too)

RP's Rivera, Marte, Bruney, are the definities and then a mix of Coke, Aceves, Geise, Veras, Robertson and Ramirez.

It's obviously a huge improvement over 2008, but is it enough? It starts at the top with Sabathia.  The guy is the complete package and one of the best pitchers in the game.  A healthy Chien-Ming Wang means the Yankees should have over 400 innings and 66 starts from their top 2 starters. After that things get a little murky.

Burnett is a fabulous pitcher when he is healthy, but that's the problem.  Can you count on the guy to pitch 200 innings?  I'm not sure and I would assume he makes around 28 starts (his average over the life of his Blue Jays deal) 

Joba is clearly a great talent, but he will be on an innings limit this year.  He only got to 100 innings last year which means he probably won't be allowed much more than 135-140 this year.  I would assume he makes somewhere around 22 starts

You could write a similar thing about Hughes, but you would need to add injury risk to the profile. Hughes also finished right around 100 innings last season and I would assume they cap him around the same level as Joba.

Add it all up and you probably can expect around 140 starts from this group, so where do the remaining 22 starts come from?  The Yankees could mix and match using Aceves and Kennedy to fill in as needed, or they could sign a pitcher. (And yes, I think Coke is a bullpen guy and not a starter)

Based on the stories involving Freddy Garcia, it sounds like they are trying to sign a pitcher and I am ok with that.  Remember 140 starts is probably the best case scenario, an injury to one of the five (a decent bet with Burnett and Hughes) and you need more starts. So, do the Yankees go back to Pettitte?  What about Sidney Ponson? (I'm kidding)

While I would like to see another starter added to the mix, I think the bullpen is all set.  Mariano is in the front and the Yankees have plenty of arms behind him.  You will most likely have two lefties in the pen and there are a number hard-throwing righties that the Yankees can call on.  Look at the 40-man roster and guys like Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon are waiting in the wings as well.  Add in the fact that the one are Joe Girardi really did well in was bullpen management and the pen should be very good in 2009. 

January 22, 2009

State Of The Offense

Today we can reasonably project the Yankees offense heading into 2009.  The biggest question isn't really who makes the club, rather it is how many bats will they carry?  You can assume 13 and hope for 14 (since that would mean they only carry 11 pitchers)  Let's assume 13 for now.  That would probably look like this:

Catchers (2): Posada and Molina

Iniflelders (5) Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Ransom

Outfielders (5): Damon, Gardner, Nady, Swisher, Cabrera

DH (1): Matsui

Swisher can of course play first as well and Matsui could play left, but I think the Yankees don't want to try that considering his knee.  

The outfield depth looks very good, it just comes down to can Gardner handle the centerfield job?  We won't know that for awhile, but I think the Yankees are smart to let him try.  

My concern lies with the infield and catching depth.  Start with Posada and his rehab from injury.  The Yankees say he will be ready for Opening Day, but can they be sure?  And, if he isn't, the alternative is Jose Molina.  Molina provided 268 AB's last year with a line of .216/.263/.313.  If the Yankees go into 2009 with Molina as the only viable backup to Posada, they are making a huge mistake.  We have heard that Romine and Montero are the catchers of the future, but they haven't gotten out of A ball yet.  The Yankees have to trade for a catcher with a little more oomph to carry them over the next few years.

Infield depth also worries me, not at firstbase, but at the other positions.  Jeter is going to be 35 this year.  (Isn't that amazing?) while A-Rod will turn 34, neither of them can be considered a lock to play 150+ games.  Cody Ransom had the best Yankees' debut since Shane Spencer, but he is 32 and there is a reason he only has 183 AB's in the bigs.  If one of the infielders gets hurt, the Yankees could be in trouble.  (And please, don't try and convince me that Angel Berroa is the answer either)

Will Cashman address either of these issues before the team leaves camp?  I would say no, for whatever reason the bench has never been an area of concern for him.  I hope I am wrong, but we will see.   

January 21, 2009

More Arbitration Gripes

Peter relayed his concerns about the Yankees signing of Melky Cabrera and I agree.  Voicing a similar concern, Jonathan Papelbon yesterday agreed to a $6.25mm deal a year after making $775k.  That's an 800% raise.

Before you go and tell me how important Papelbon is, save it.  He is important, but he also is part of the MLBPA and his union agreed to a system that rewards more senior players.

Back to the 800%.  Is that his fault, no.  The Red Sox were in line to perhaps go to $3mm at most (similar to Kevin Youkilis last year), but $6.25mm?!?  How can they justify that?  My only guess is that that Red Sox told Papelbon after last year that they'd take care of him (during the time they had control over his deal, there was friction), but to go this far is crazy.  I have to assume that a long-term deal is in the works and that the details just have to be hammered out.

Otherwise, what, do they offer him $48mm in 2010?  An 800% raise?  Please.

There has to be more to this than meets the eye.

Lastly, with the departure of George W Bush, the Boston sports scene watches a presidential tenure that gave us 6 Championships conclude.  That's a ton of trophies.  This is not any kind of partisan commentary, trust me, but it is interesting that that the 2 prior presidents (covering 12 years) generated no championships, and that included both a democrat and a republican.  Wonder that an Independent would do?  Green party?  Anyone?

Oh yeah, Javier Lopez signed for $1.35mm, a year after signing for $840k (and with the same service time as Papelbon).  Papelbon is better, but the compensation still doesn't make sense.

January 20, 2009

$1.4 Million?

The Yankees settled two arbitration cases today.  I will get to the Nady one in a second, I am just stunned by the Melky news.  Melky submitted a request of $1.7 and the Yankees countered with $1.2, they met near the middle at $1.4.

This for a guy who put up an OPS .642 last year while making $461,200.  How in the world does he get a raise of over 200%?  Sure, the money is chump change to the Yankees, but isn't this an indication that the system is broken when terrible seasons are rewarded with big raises?  

Anyway, Xavier Nady agreed to a $6.55 million deal which means he got less of a raise on a percentage basis than Melky, but still is relatively cheap for his performance.  Now that the Yankees have signed him, I would expect their trade talks to intensify with other teams.   

Bruney asked for $1.55 million and the Yankees offered $1.1. I would guess they will probably settle that one too.   

January 19, 2009

#51

It was good to hear Bernie Williams on the radio today, promoting a charity appearance he is about to do.  In his appearance, Bernie announced that he will play for Puerto Rico in the upcoming WBC and that he might try and return to the game if the WBC experience goes well. 

I love Bernie, he was my favorite player of the recent dynasty, but he is fooling himself if he thinks he will be able to jump back into the game at 40.  But, a large part of me hopes he rips the cover off the ball in the WBC, just so I can see him fly around the bases again.   

January 16, 2009

John Henry: "O Captain My Captain"

The Boston Globe is reporting that Red Sox Principal Owner John Henry is schedule to meet with Jason Varitek tonight in the Atlanta area.  Varitek apparently requested the meeting and Scott Boras will not be there.

My guess is that this is an attempt for both sides to get a read on things.  Because of what Varitek has meant to the Red Sox, I wouldn't be surprised that if they do have enough common ground, this will lead to a deal, a deal that will not make look Varitek look foolish while at the same time giving the Red Sox some value.

I don't think the Red Sox are an overly sympathetic group, but in this case I think they are willing to help Varitek save face.  Perhaps a 2-year deal at $7.5mm per year.  Just my opinion.

Let's just hope the Red Sox captain hasn't met the same fate as Whitman's captain.

January 15, 2009

Lock 'em Up

ESPN's Peter Gammons is reporting that the Red Sox and Kevin Youkilis have agreed to a 4-year, $40mm extension with a team option for a 5th year.  The Boston Globe is suggesting that while terms have been outlined, an agreement has NOT been reached.

If this is true (that a deal is done or is all but done), the Red Sox will have signed Youkilis through his 33rd birthday or 34th birthday if they exercise the option.  Interesting, I knew Youkilis was that old but not really.  Seems like he should be 26 or 27.

Anyway, another great move in my mind as it buys him out of 2 and maybe 3 years of free agency.  I think any Red Sox fan has to agree that IF Youkilis maintains his recent production, this is a team friendly deal.

He made $3mm in 2008 and would have made at a minimum $6mm in 2009 and in 2010, what, $12mm?  Again that assumes he does as well or close to what he did in 2008.  For Youkilis, this provides him with a bunch of money should his career go into the crapper.

Reports also surfaced over this past weekend that the Red Sox were looking into talking with Jason Bay about extending his contract as well.  He is schedule to be a free agent after the 2009 season.

Less Than A Month To Go

Want some good news if you are freeing like me on a somewhat snowy day?  We are less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting.  Thanks to the WBC, the first reporting date is February 14th, something that may warm you on the inside.  I am afraid I can't help your outside. 

And while we are at it, isn't it amazing how many free agents are still out there?  Obviously, Manny Ramirez is the biggest fish left, but there are tons of guys available including Andy Pettitte.  I have a hunch that may not be for long.  If you read this news item on the Dodgers, you will notice that they specifically mention that the payroll felxibility of the Andruw Jones move allows "for the acquisition of a veteran starting pitcher to join an otherwise young rotation."

If you think about it Pettitte would be a nice fit out there and obivously the manager loves him.  The only question is, would Andy want to relocate his family to LA?  He might not have a choice as the Astros seem maxed out payroll-wise and the latest reports on his talks with the Yankees weren't good. 

There is also speculation that the Mets could get involved with Pettite and it makes sense from a location standpoint.  But, there have also been plenty of rumors that the Wilpons were heavily involved in the Bernie Madoff affair and lost millions, which may explain why the Mets never seriously engaged Derek Lowe.  (Note, the Wilpons keep denying this rumor, but it is a fairly persistent one.) 

Stay warm, baseball is on it's way back.   

January 14, 2009

Yanks Invite 20 To Spring Training

The Yankees announced that they have invited 20 players to Sprng Training today.  There are a number of interesting names beyond players like Kei Igawa.

Mark Melancon was invited and you have to like his chances to help this team at some point in 2009.  All the scouts say he is the next closer in the system, so we will see what happens.

Austin Romine and Jesus Montero, the two big catching prospects in the system were invited.  They won't last long in camp, but I hope to see a little of both of them before they get sent down.

Shelley Duncan was invited, which means he cleared waivers.  Frankly, I am surprised by that because I thought he would get picked up by someone else (Cardinals).  I still think he could help the team against LHP, but that time has probably passed.  

Austin Jackson got an invite.  What happens if he has a stellar camp?  Would the Yankees give him the centerfield job right off the bat?

Ramiro Pena and Kevin Russo, two infield prospects will also be there.

Don't forget, the WBC is this year and depending on which Yankees play in it, that will open some playing time for some other guys.  I imagine it will only be Jeter, A-Rod and Damon, but you never know.   

 

UPDATE- Kind of a weird addition to the Shelley Duncan invite via Chad Jennings

January 13, 2009

Congratulations Jim Ed

As an unabashed Jim Rice fan, I can say with complete and total bias, he is a fantastic pick to be in baseball's Hall of Fame.

As a kid, for whatever reason I zeroed in on Rice and followed his every move.  My baseball card collection contains my cards and then a special notebook filled with nothing but Jim Rice cards.  Which reminds me, that collection probably just bumped up in value a bit.

Jim Rice Topps Rookie Card

I remember being crushed when I started hearing stories about Rice not being the nicest person in the world.  The media was really tough on him and that in turn bothered me.  But it never turned me against him.

It was sad to see his career quickly tail off after a superb 1986 season.  But even in 1986 I recall seeing warning signs.  His power had diminished and he went to the opposite field much more often.  Normally an admirable skill, but his opposite field hits seemed almost by accident.  I don't know if there is a way to check my memories as I was only 14 at the time, but he seemed late on his swings and lacked the brute strength he'd had prior.

Again, it pained me to read articles that perhaps he was a conditioning freak and his rapid decline was the result of refusing to wear glasses.  There was always something negative surrounding Rice.

As many have argued, had he stuck around another 2-3 years and put up bad numbers he just might have reached 400 home runs and 1500 RBI, but instead he hung 'em up.  Many years have passed since Rice played baseball, but it seems like just yesterday to me.

My good memories of Rice were many, but the ones that stuck with me were the day game in which a Dave Stapleton liner hit a young boy sitting in the short left field stands.  Rice saw the injury, hopped into the stands and carried the blood covered boy into the dugout for faster treatment.  If I recall correctly, Rice played the rest of the game with a blood stain on his uniform.  Here's what Peter Gammons had to say about it while still writing for the Boston Globe:

RED SOX NOTEBOOK\ FENWAY ROUGH AGAIN

PETER GAMMONS

August 9, 1982

Covering this place has become like "Guadalcanal Diary." Saturday there was the sickening beaning of a 4-year-old New Hampshire boy and a subsequent injury to another fan on another foul ball. Yesterday one fan in the left- field grandstands was hurt by a foul ball, Carlton Fisk was struck twice by Dwight Evans' bat and, in succession in the ninth inning, Ron LeFlore flipped his bat and caught Gary Allenson square on the right (throwing) elbow and Tony Bernazard flipped his and caught home plate umpire Mike Reilly flush on the back of the head.

"Fans love Fenway," said Dave Stapleton, "but one of the reasons is that they're so close - but it makes it awfully dangerous." Stapleton was advised by doctors at Children's Hospital not to see Jonathan Keane, the boy struck by Stape's liner Saturday, until after yesterday's game, which he did. Chicago manager Tony LaRussa and Allenson visited the boy early yesterday morning. If only every cynic in America could have 1) observed Jim Rice's reaction to crisis and 2) seen how concerned players from both teams were. Keane, incidentally, was reported in good condition yesterday.

End

The other memory I am fond of was a 1986 game in Yankee Stadium.  It was my first game there and in the 8th or 9th inning there was a foul into the short left field stands.  Rice had reached the area in an attempt to make a play.  While at the wall, a fan reached out and grabbed Rice's cap.  He didn't like that and leapt the wall and went after the fan to get his cap back.  Good times, except for the fact that the family that had hosted my family at the game (and drove us) decided to get an early exit and we were on the drive home when the event went down.  I was grumpy not to have witnessed it.

Here is Leigh Montville's take on that episode.  I had most of the facts correct, but didn't realize Rice made the catch and that the whole team swarmed the scene:

 

HATS OFF TO RICE

Leigh Montville

Globe Staff September 14, 1986

NEW YORK -- Don't try to rollerskate in a buffalo herd. Don't mess with Superman's cape. Don't -- absolutely don't -- take Jim Rice's baseball cap.

Jim, you see, has some friends. "The old story about the Boston Red Sox always has been that they needed 24 cabs for 24 players," Red Sox designated hitter Don Baylor said yesterday afternoon after the American League leaders lost, 11-6, to the Yankees during one of the strangest days in the long and storied history of this series between rival teams. "Well, you saw everyone moving in one direction today. That was a team."

Have you ever? Did you ever? The direction this team was traveling on this day was into the left-field stands to rescue their captain, who had gone there first to rescue his baseball cap. Have you ever? Did you ever?

Part ice hockey, part junior high school rumble, part swimming against a strong tide in an angry sea, this was a picture that will be remembered for a long time. Half the Red Sox team was in the middle of the stands filled with people who hate them worse than anyone or anything on this earth.

"You think about it now and you say, 'I shouldn't go in the stands,' " centerfielder Tony Armas said. "A lot of trouble could happen to you there. People could have guns, knives.

"You think about it at the moment it happens, though, and you just think that you have to get in there to help Jimmy."

First things first. The trouble began at the start of the Yankee half of the eighth inning with one of those high and lazy fly balls that causes infielders and outfielders to collide. The ball was foul, close to the left- field stands and Rice ran a long way for it and shortstop Spike Owen ran a long way and they arrived at the ball at the same time.

"You couldn't hear anything because we were so close to the stands," Spike Owen said. "I thought it was my ball. I didn't have an idea where Jimmy was until we hit."

The collision -- in the words of Red Sox trainer Charlie Moss -- was "like a Cadillac hitting a Volkswagen. The Cadillac caught the ball and somehow held on to it. The Volkswagen careened off to one side and hit his head on the padded fence.

Spike Owen never lost consciousness, but he felt a pain in his chest.

"Something happened to my ribs," he said later, a giant bandage wrapped around those ribs. "I guess it's not serious, but it still hurts when I breathe."

Both Owen and Rice stayed on the ground for a while, and in the confusion a 27-year-old genius from Brooklyn named Thomas J. Nihill reached over the railing and stole Rice's cap. The television replay clearly showed him making the grab, picking up the hat as the two ballplayers still rolled in pain.

"It's like going to a funeral home and taking the good teeth from a corpse," a man in the press box exclaimed. "Isn't that something?"

Owen was helped off the field. Rice wiped dirt from his uniform and prepared to go back to his post in left. The game was ready to resume.

Then Rice realized he didn't have his hat.

"The fans started pointing at the guy who had the hat," Tony Armas said. "The guy was trying to get away. He stuffed the cap in the front of his pants. Then he said something. I think he said a bad word."

"I guess he said some racial epithet," manager McNamara said. "Jimmy even was offering the guy another cap. That's when the guy apparently said what he said."

Rice, who refused to comment on his reasons, vaulted the railing and began to chase Thomas J. Nihill, the 27-year-old genius from Brooklyn. The rest of the players saw Rice disappear and they followed.

"You just go," Tony Armas said. "I didn't want Jimmy hitting the guy and getting in some kind of lawsuit."

"When one of my players goes into the stands, I know there'll be at least one guy going with him," McNamara said. "I think I was the first one out of the dugout. I wasn't first into the stands, though. There are some younger legs than mine around here."

"I was on the mound, warming up," pitcher Joe Sambito said. "I was in my motion when I looked at the plate and saw that Rich Gedman, the catcher, wasn't there. I wondered where he went. Then I saw what was happening. Everyone went."

Rice wound up wrestling the hat free from the 27-year-old genius. McNamara wound up behind pitcher Oil Can Boyd, who suddenly was having trouble with someone stealing HIS hat. McNamara went to help Boyd and then Don Baylor came along to help McNamara.

"My bodyguard," McNamara said. "He ended it right there. He pulled away the hat and the guy just sort of sat in a seat and Baylor said, 'Stay there.' "

LaSchelle Tarver, the rookie outfielder, won immediate points for good planning. He carried his bat with him into the stands. ("I don't know," he said, "it just followed me out there.") Marc Sullivan went in wearing a batting helmet. Roger Clemens, in what must be his arguing style, turned his hat backward, and vaulted the railing in a rush.

"What did you expect to find in there?" the pitcher was asked.

"I didn't know," he said, "but if anybody came at me, there was going to be trouble. We were going to get Jimmy. No prisoners in that kind of situation."

The meeting between fans and players mostly was a jumble. There were no real fights. Security people came along to arrest the 27-year-old genius and another fan. All the hats were saved. All the players were alive and well when they finally returned to the field.

"You think, though, about what could happen," McNamara said. "You go out there and you look at who's around you. Rice. Baylor. Clemens. Can. The potential of things that can happen is really dangerous. Not just for the players, either. There's little kids out there. Women. I'll tell you, it's scary."

Before the game resumed, a third fan was arrested when he dropped his cigarettes over the railing and came onto the field to retrieve them. A second cap also came flying onto the field, thrown by a fan. A rubber chicken also was thrown onto the field.

A rubber chicken?

"I just told the umpire to have someone remove the chicken," Sambito said. "I said I'm not going to pitch with a rubber chicken on the field."

The chicken was removed. Jim had his cap. The genius from Brooklyn had his citation for disorderly conduct and criminal trespassing. Play ball.

Baseball began again.

End

Always entertaining.  Good work James Edward Rice.

January 12, 2009

Fixing The Hall Of Fame Process

So Rickey Henderson and and Jim Rice made the Hall Of Fame today. Congratulations to both of them on a great accomplishment.  What bothered me about today's results is that Henderson only made 94.8% of the ballots in his first year of election.

What is there about Rickey Henderson that doesn't scream Hall Of Famer?  No one in baseball history has more steals or runs scored.  He had 3,000 hits and added 297 home runs to his impressive credentials.  In short, I cannot understand how he was left off of ballots.  

But, it really shouldn't shock me.  After all, Hank Aaron only got 97.8% of the vote and he was the home run and RBI leader at the time he was voted on.  BL recently opined on this site that Greg Maddux should get 100% of the vote and while I agree I am also sure that he will not.

The reason is each voter has an agenda.  Jim Rice didn't make the Hall Of Fame until now because he was, by most accounts, a moody jerk to the press.  That's a terrible reason to use when deciding to vote for a player, but baseball writers seem to live in a consequence-free world.  That has to end, and it has to end now.

So, I propose that the writers agree to a new set of criteria with their Hall Of Fame votes.  There needs to be some sort of demerits system with the vote.  If a player gets elected, let's say with over 80% of the vote in a given year and you don't vote for him then you get a strike.  Using baseball rules, three strikes means you are out, or in this case you lose your vote. That would stop voters from putting their personal agendas in front of their duty when they vote.  Baseball needs to do something to change this ridiculous process.

January 10, 2009

Takashi Saito

Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Red Sox have come to terms with former Dodger closer Takashi Saito.  According to Rosenthal the deal is for a base between $1.5mm and $2.5mm (I assume we will eventually learn which) and incentives that that will give him a chance to earn a total of $7mm.  In addition, the Red Sox have a 2010 team option.

I have to assume that the only way Saito gets a sniff at $7mm is if he steps into the closer role should something happen to Jonathan Papelbon.

Finances aside, I love this signing.  Saito is far from a guarantee given his health issues at the end of last year but he has been a very good reliever since coming to the States.  His career ERA+ is 229 (1.95 ERA).  He has allowed 121 hits in 189.2 IP while striking out 245 (52 walks).  He has 81 career saves in his 3-year MLB career.

Saito turns 39 next month, so the combination of his age and health make this a potential dud of a deal and if so, the Red Sox are only on the hook for one year (like all of their deals this off-season), but if he comes back anywhere close to his performance of recent past, it is great.  My guess is that this deal signals the end of David Aardsma's stay in Boston.

As things stand, here's the make-up of the pitching staff:

Starters:  Lester, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield, Penny & Smoltz

Pen:  Papelbon, Saito, Okajima, Delcarmen, Masterson, Lopez & Ramirez

That's 13 players, but Smoltz will be on the DL to start the year making it 12.  Given the fact that Mark Kotsay can play 1b, I think the Red Sox will go with a 12 man staff.

Things can change of course, but I like this bullpen much more than last year's edition.  Aardsma (5.55 ERA) and Timlin (5.66 ERA) out and Saito (2.49 ERA) and Ramirez (2.64) are in.

My unofficial tally on recent deals:

$5.5mm Smoltz, $5mm Penny, $0.5mm Baldelli, $2mm Saito, $1.5mm Kotsay, $1.7mm Bard ($15.7mm).  With possible incentives: $4.5mm Smoltz, $6mm Penny, $7mm Baldelli, $5mm Saito, $0.8mm Bard ($23.3mm).

So they've spent money, and with the exception of Kotsay, each player has a big ? over his head.  That said more than half of the money on the table is "pay for play."  That I like.  What I don't like is the idea that if any of these guys excels in 2009, he likely won't be back in 2010 or if he is, it'll be for a big contract.  But if they do leave in 2010, it means they played well in 2009.

One observation, the pitching staff is 25% Japanese born.  I wonder if that is a first on an MLB team.

January 09, 2009

Nady vs. Swisher

It seems pretty clear from all the rumors out there that the Yankees are going to trade either Swisher or Nady before the season starts.  To me, there is only one clear path to choose and that is trading Nady.  I base this on three facts.

1- Swisher is a career .244/.354/.451 hitter while Nady is a career .280/.334/.458 hitter.  Nady is better in two categories, but since the slugging percentage difference is only .007, I believe the OBP difference is the key.  Plus, you can look at equivalent average for their careers and see that Swisher is a .282 hitter and Nady is a .275 hitter.  (Equivalent Average is a Baseball Prospectus tool that in their own words is, "A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching."  So obviously the higher the better.

2- Swisher is two years younger than Nady and is signed through at least 2011 (the Yankees hold a $10.25 option on 2012)  Nady is going to arbitration this year and will get a big raise from the $3.5 he made last year.  He will then be a free agent after 2009.  So, Swisher provides some cost cetainty

3- Swisher can play four positions (1B, RF, LF, CF) and other than CF he plays them all at average or above defensively and he can hit from both sides of the plate.   Nady really can only play LF and RF right now, though he did play some 1B a few seasons ago and he is a righty.

It is a nice problem to have and I wouldn't rush to trade either one of them.  The Yankees don't know for sure yet if Matsui's knee will hold up.  They also have no clue is Gardner will hit like he did in Septmeber or the way he did prior to September.  So, what's the harm in keeping him around for now?  Sure Nady is an expensive fourth outfielder, but he is worth it unless you can exchange him for parts that can help you in 2009.  That's the test for me.  If the Yankees can go out and get some pieces to add to the 2009 bench for him, trade him.  Otherwise, I say keep him around and see how things go. 

The Bench

Reports are out indicating Mark Kotsay has been signed to a $1.5mm deal to be the Red Sox primary back-up at 1b and to complement Rocco Baldelli as a back-up OF.

Good glove guy, not too much to offer with the bat.

In a matter of hours, the Red Sox have shown their cards and the team is really taking shape.  I'm not suggesting it is taking an ideal shape, but a shape nonetheless.

Still needed:  Catcher, utility infielder (Nick Green, might he be good enough to win that job?) and a very good HMO plan.

JV

Some interesting quotes from Theo Nathan Epstein today.

"There's still some unfinished business.  Jason is still out there. As I said at the beginning of the off-season, he's been a really important guy here to this organization and by no means have we shut the door on him. There's still some unfinished business there. And also, in the pursuit of a younger catcher.  We have the two young guys who combined to form a pretty good platoon last year at Pawtucket in George Kottaras and Dusty Brown and we brought in Josh Bard on a one-year deal, someone that we really trust to run a staff and call a game and has been a significant part of the catching solution for a good team in this league and done a nice job. We see him factoring into the equation for sure."

So no matter what negative vibe you got from the recent Teixeira, Boras, Red Sox ménage à trois, you might as well toss it out the window.

The one potential conflict in Epstein's comments would be the idea of having Varitek and a "younger catcher."  If that were the combo, then Josh Bard would again find himself shipped out of Boston.  Poor guy.  Trade/cut me once, shame on you, trade/cut me a second time, shame on me, right?

If the Red Sox do re-sign Varitek, I think we'd all agree that it would be a positive, but at the same time the Red Sox would be basically holding off the inevitable as the Red Sox need new blood at catcher.

There are those who say his divorce last year was a major distraction (and I imagine that kind of thing would be) but you have to consider he is old for a catcher and age might be just as important a factor as anything else in his offensive decline.

My hope is that the Red Sox do re-sign Varitek for a 2-year deal AND go get a catching prospect.  At one point in time I thought George Kottaras was that guy, but I'm not so sure anymore.  To be fair, here are the stats for Kottaras and Dustin Brown at AAA Pawtucket last year.  Between them, they hit 34 HRs.

Kottaras(25): .240/346/.454:  22 HR, 64 RBI, 64 BB, 110 K.

Brown(age 26): .290/.378./471:  12 HR, 55 RBI, 40 BB and 81 K.

Both are on the old side for prospects (not a bad thing as a catcher necessarily) but neither lit the world on fire in 2008 at Pawtucket.  I think purely from an offensive standpoint, I'd go with Brown at this point if left to tap into the organizational options.

If I could trade up, I would.

My bet:  The Red Sox try and scuffle their way at the catcher position in 2008 and 2009 and then trade for Joe Mauer in 2010 or even in 2009 (he, I think, is a free agent after the 2010 season).

Anyway, just a few notes to pass along. 

January 08, 2009

The Skinny

The Red Sox officially announced the signing of Rocco Baldelli.  While no details were given, Boston.com says it is believed to be a 1-year deal for a base of $500,000.  If he makes the roster, there is a roster bonus of $1.75mm which is paid out based on the period of time he stays on the active roster and further incentives which could make his total compensation $7.5mm.  So pay for performance.

As for John Smoltz, according to Boston.com, he'll sign a $5mm base with incentives that could bring the total value to $10mm.  A larger commitment to be sure, but not outrageous considering it is a 1-year deal.

Lastly, Brad Penny is/was scheduled to have his team physical today which is all that is in the way of having his previously reported deal announced.

Here's the skinny:  The Red Sox now have a rotation of Jon Lester, Josh Becket, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny and John Smoltz (sooner or later).  In addition, they potentially have Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and perhaps Justin Masterson.

It boils down that they Red Sox have added enough starting pitching depth to allow them to trade a young arm for something nice.  Be it Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson or another arm or 2 in the minors, they don't need to worry about the 2009 rotation, at least I hope they don't.

So I see between now and July 1st the Red Sox pulling off a major deal of some kind.  I'm not sure what they will target although a catcher is probably the first thought.  Being that any catcher they can acquire will likely be a young and largely unproven catcher, I'm not sure I consider that a major deal.  The kind of deal I am expecting would involve a well known offensive player.

Why a full month prior to the trade deadline?  Like many, Theo Epstein uses the first 2 months of the season to evaluate the team and unless there is something glaring, he'll probably be thoughtful about things.  He'll use June to find a dance partner and then bang something out.

Who you ask?  I haven't the faintest idea.  But as I see the potential health issues of many of the Red Sox regulars (Drew, Lowell and Ortiz) and the potential for below replacement value offense from the catching corp and the lack of immediate help at Pawtucket as a reason to trade for help.

January 07, 2009

A Guest Blogger

A frequent commenter, BL is also a Red Sox fan who has relocated down to Atlanta.  He asked if he could post about the Hall Of Fame and we were more than happy to let him.  Thanks BL!

 
In December, Greg Maddux formally announced his retirement from baseball.  Everybody agrees he was amazing for so long and that his record speaks volumes and will be a first ballot HOFer.  No new news there.  What I want to discuss is should he be the first ever 100% unanimously elected player into the Hall.

What you say?  Nobody has ever received 100% of the voters’ votes?  How can that be?

Babe Ruth?
Hank Aaron?
Lou Gehrig?
Ty Cobb?
Tom Seaver?
Honus Wagner?
Ted Williams?
Willie Mays?

Obviously arguments, strong arguments, could be made that these and other players should be no-brainers in getting 100% votes when they get in.

The upcoming election, in 5 years, for Greg Maddux should be the next test on whether anybody could claim 100% of the votes going in.  Not Bonds in 4 years (assuming he is done), not Sosa, not Glavine, Clemens or Smoltz.  Maddux is the golden goose for Hall of Fame voting.  Was he better or more deserving than Seaver, or any of the greatest pitchers already in the Hall?  Arguments can be made for both sides.  That isn’t what the voting should be about. 

It should not be, “Seaver, Ryan, Carlton, Feller…none of those guys got 100% so I won’t vote for Maddux to preserve their place in history”.

History is that, history.  Sometimes in history mistakes have been made.  The current and future should not repeat historical mistakes, that is why people study history. 

Bold Statement alert:  Any voters that don’t vote for Greg Maddux in 5 years should absolutely have their voting rights removed forever!

To reiterate, Greg Maddux isn’t the best pitcher ever, he is one of the best ever though.  The facts that nobody has ever gained entrance with 100% votes SHOULD not matter in this particular vote.

I had the pleasure of being in Atlanta during Maddux’s entire run through here.  I have a great reference to great pitching having been in Boston during Clemens’ run through Beantown.  I have seen two of the greats first hand, live and on tv, many many times and am biased by having them pitch for my hometown teams in their primes.  Clemens will have issues getting in first ballot (see McGuire/Bonds) but with Maddux nobody will argue he gets in first ballot.  In 5 years if he doesn’t get 100% of the votes, a congressional committee should be formed to investigate.  Seems they have time for baseball issues anyway, just add it to the docket.

Baldelli (and Smoltz)

UPDATE:

Boston.com's Nick Carfardo is also reporting that John Smoltz and the Red Sox are working on an agreement as well.  Cafardo says the deal is a $5mm base with incentives that could make it a $10mm deal.  He also points out that Smoltz isn't likely to be ready until May. 

--------------

ESPN's Peter Gammons is reporting the Red Sox are about to sign Rocco Baldelli.  The deal will be announced at Thursday's annual Boston Baseball Writers Dinner, an event at which Baldelli will also be honored.

Gammons's report refers to Baldelli's medical condition as being a mitochondrial disorder, but more recent reports have it being a far less serious and more treatable condition called channelopathy. 

Of course just a few weeks ago I wrote about my confusion on why the hype surrounding Baldelli.  I stand by though those thoughts.  Baldelli coming to Boston would mean he is the 4th outfielder, but the reality is that JD Drew is not an iron man and if Jacoby Ellsbury struggles against lefties and if Ortiz isn't 100%, we might see 400 or more at bats from Baldelli.

I'm hoping first on a humanistic level and secondly as a Red Sox fan that Baldelli's condition is indeed treatable and he proves me wrong.

Other news, reported by Nick Cafardo this past Sunday, said the Red Sox are in on Takashi Saito.  To me he would be a great addition if the deal were for a modest base and decent incentives.  Normally he'd command $4mm+ as a set-up man or closer, but he was injured last year and didn't pitch all that well or often after returning.  Also, he is on the old side.

But, he represents the kind of risk worth taking assuming his medicals don't show a disaster area.

Still outstanding?  Another catcher.  Josh Bard is a nice back-up, but that's about it.

January 06, 2009

Angel Berroa?

You know what's amazing about the Angel Berroa?  It's not that the Yankees just signed him to a minor league deal.  (It's a waste of money and the Yankees need to keep looking for a backup infielder)  It's the fact that he was actually Rookie Of The Year in 2003 for the AL.  The guy had a nice year in '03 and has never even come close to a year like that since. 

In other news, I have to give Mark Teixeira some credit.  Yes, he did the usual "I always wanted to be a Yankee' stuff at his press conference today, but he also said that three things mattered in his decision and one of them was the contract.  It would be nice to have an athlete come clean and just say "it's all about the money" but that isn't happening.  

I was thinking more about the whole Andy Pettitte thing and how I just don't care if he comes back or doesn't  I know a lot of fans still love him, but I just can't get past the number of times he lied with the whole HGH affair.  It's odd, but if you had told me a few years ago that I would have more respect for Jason Giambi than Andy Pettitte, I never would have believed you. 

Carl Pavano is going to Cleveland.  Anyone care to bet that he is on the mound the opening series at the new Stadium and that he pitches well?  Just have a feeling about it.

Of all the people at the Teixeira press conference, the guy who impressed me the most was Hal Steinbrenner.  Hal is really the anti-George in many ways.  He isn't bombast and bluster, he is fairly soft spoken.  But, he also clearly wants to win.  I don't know if Hal is a "kinder/gentler" version of George, but he is off to a good start. 

Shelley Duncan DFA'ed to make room for Teixeira means that the risk of broken hands in the Yankees' dugout has gone way down. 

One last thing, tomorrow we will have a guest post.  I think you will all enjoy it.   

 

Andy Says No?

According to the Daily News, Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yankees offer of $10 million. 

It's hard to see how this gets resolved in a positive way.  Pettitte obviously feels like he is worth more than that and I can't fault the Yankees for disagreeing.  I also think the article makes an excellent point about the timing of Pettitte's deal last year and his HGH admission.  (well first admission)

January 02, 2009

Revisionist History

I keep reading how smart the Yankees were to not offer arbitration to Pettitte and Abreu last month.  The thinking is that they obviously would have taken it and based on the free agent market today, that is probably correct. 

But, it neglects the basic fact that the arbitration offer would have had to have been accepted or rejected by December 8th.  Now, I can agree that Pettitte would have been likely to accept it in December, but do you really think Abreu would have?  Remember that on December 8th, C.C Sabthia was still a free agent and people were still waiting to see what he would sign for.  The Winter Meetings had just started and nobody knew that they wouldn't produce a wealth of signings. 

We all know what really happened and it is a minor point now, but a draft pick is a draft pick and I still think the Yankees threw one away last month.