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October 31, 2008

Elias and Their Free Agents

Elias has come out with their ratings for free agents.

Boston:

Alex Cora (No Rating - NR)

David Ross (NR)

Jason Varitek (Type A)

New York:

Bobby Abreu (Type A)

Chad Moeller (NR)

Sidney Ponson (NR)

Ivan Rodriguez (Type B)

Ratings explained:  When a team signs a free agent, compensation is due the team that lost the player IF they offered the player arbitration.

Compensation due team that lost player offered arbitration:

Type A - Signing Team's First Round Pick and a Supplemental First Round Pick

Type B - Supplemental First Round Pick (behind Type A Supplemental Picks)

Type C - 1 dozen donuts, five dollars and a flower

NR - No compensation due

Of course it is good to know what Boston and New York players are rated, but you should also know what potential and actual free agents are rated.  ESPN has a good table for such a pursuit.

Hmmm, maybe Derek Lowe is too costly to sign after all.

No Wake for Wake

The Red Sox exercised their annual option on Tim Wakefield, according to the Boston Globe.

The perpetual $4mm a year option is a great bargain for the Red Sox and obviously not chump change for Wakefield, who at 42 years old, ranks as one of the oldest players in baseball.

Wakefield has given the Red Sox 27 wins over the past 2 seasons, so while he certainly cannot be counted on for 200 innings anymore, he has proven capable of some quality innings.

Free Agency Declaration - "I'm Free" Says Varitek

The Boston Globe is reporting that Jason Varitek has filed for free agency.  No surprise of course, his contract is up after all.  Joining him on the Red Sox are Alex Cora and David Ross.

Rumor, yes the kind of rumor that Peter said to ignore 95% of the time, suggest Varitek's agent Scott Boras is shopping his client to the Detroit Tigers in an attempt to get a multi-year deal.

The bet here is that the Red Sox want Varitek back, but but for 2 years and perhaps $6mm or $7mm a year.  There is no way Boras and Varitek can, with a straight face, say that Varitek's skill haven't eroded.  If they are honest with themselves, they will realize that and probably take a 2 year deal with Boston.  If not, see you later Captain.

Like Peter said, with World Series over, things will start to heat up quickly.  I love this time of year.

October 30, 2008

The Hot Stove Opens (With Trivia Answer)

Thanks to the Marlins and Royals for making a trade and kicking off the hot stove.  We should start to hear about free agency filings soon and I imagine there will be some surprises.  Don't be shocked when Mike Mussina files for free agency, it is just to keep his options open. 

The Yankees will also start making announcements on player options soon.  Expect to see them decline the options of Pavano and Giambi, the only question is what they do with Marte.  I am not sure which way they will land on that one, but I hope it is to decline it.  One of the stranger things in baseball is the fact that teams can sign free agents before teams have to offer free agents arbitration.  The GM meetings start next week so expect some action to start soon.  And, don't believe 95% of the rumors you read, remember newspapers need to fill column inches and sell papers.

As for the trivia, the answer is from 1979-1982 the Pirates, Phillies, Dodgers and Cardinals all won titles, the last time the NL went back-to-back.  Since then, the AL has gone back-to-back (or more) four times and the 26 years since the NL has done it represents the longest gap ever by either league.

And besides setting up the NL with a chance to break that streak in 2009, the Phillies vicotry represented something else last night.  By winning their 2nd World Series, the Phillies became the last of the original 16 franchises that made up the NL and AL to win a second crown.  

October 29, 2008

Thank You Philly!

Way to get the job done. 

Now for a trivia question. When was the last time the National League won back-to-back World Series titles and what teams were involved? (no looking it up) 

Come On Phillies!

Still not rooting for the Phillies?  Well, let's see if this convinces you.

As Andy pointed out, free agency won't start until the 16th day after the World Series ends.  So, if the Phillies wrap things up tonight we can see some free agent signings starting November 14th.  If not, we might have to wait up to two extra days.  Is that a big deal?  Probably not, but it is worth thinking about when you flip on the TV tonight.

October 27, 2008

Baseball Dodges A Bullet

Wondering why tonight's game was played in a monsoon?  MLB didn't really have a choice because if they had put the tarp on the field before the Rays tied things up and it hadn't come off again, the Phillies would have won the World Series in a rain-shortened game.  So, looking at the forecast (very bad) and looking at the field (a joke) baseball had a brutal choice and they decided to keep playing.

You can't blame them, nobody would want to see the World Series end because of rain, but hopefully this prods MLB to change the rules.  The playoffs are too important to operate under the same set of rules as the resular season.  MLB should add a rule that playoff games can be suspended at anytime the umpires decided due to weather conditions.  The game could then be resumed as soon as possible from the point it was suspended.  Otherwise, you might see more monsoon games next October. 

UPDATE: Bud Selig just said that he would have put the game into an indefinite rain delay if the Rays had not tied things up.  So, why didn't he do that earlier then, before the water starting accumulating on the field?

MLB Is Rooting For Tampa

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, the stupidity of having two different schedules between the LCS and the World Series.  Now, it has bit baseball in the ass big time.  Because they use a 2-3-2 with only two days off in the World Series, MLB has to do everything they can to get games in despite the weather.  That led to Game 3 starting after 10pm on the East Coast Saturday night and nobody watched.  The game pulled in a 6.1 which is the lowest rating for a Series game ever.  Fans waiting for sports went elsewhere since Saturday night is loaded with college football. Through the first four games, the ratings are only an 8.5.  If the Phillies finish things off tonight, this will definitely be the lowest-rated World Series ever, so I would bet MLB is rooting for Tampa tonight.

 

 

 

October 25, 2008

Too Bad

Cross Larry Bowa off your list as third base coach next year, he is staying in LA.  At this point I think Luis Sojo might be a good candidate, he might be able to make a connection with Cano and he could definitely work with the infielders.  The Yankees could also move Rob Thomson to third and find a new bench coach which wouldnt' be a terrible idea either.

What I wouldn't hold my breath for is Willie Randolph coming back. Willie is looking for another managing job and bringing him back to the Yankees creates a very awkward situation with Joe Girardi.  The first losing streak would bring all sorts of questions about Joe's job security and the Yankees need to minimize the distractions next year, not magnify them. 

October 24, 2008

Derek Lowe

The free agent pitching market is really split into two tiers.  There is the Sabathia tier and then everyone else.  You can make cases for Sheets, Burnett, Oliver Perez, etc., but when you boil it down there are questions about all of them.  Considering that those guys will probably get at minimum Carl Pavano type deals, someone like Derek Lowe might make some sense. 

Lowe has pitched in the AL East and his numbers the past few years look good.  Plus, he won't require the same type of deal Sheets or Burnett would.  Lowe has pitched 200 innnings in each of the last four years (ok 199.3 in 2007) and is a sinkerballer which minimizes the damages when he gets hit.

But, a deeper look at the numbers and there are some red flags.  First, his ERA at Dodger Stadium was much better than his ERA on the road (Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park)  Plus his strikeout rates went way up in LA from his last years in Boston.  That isn't normal and perhaps more a factor of facing NL batters than anything else.  Throw in a report that he doesn't want to play in New York and the fact that he has an agent named Boras, and it isn't a move I would make.  

The key for the Yankees will be avoiding making a mistake on the free agent pitching market.  Assuming you get Sabathia that puts him, Wang and Joba in the rotation.  I still bring back Andy Pettitte and I let Phil Hughes take the last spot.  Look at all the young pitchers in the World Series right now.  Except for really Hamels, it took awhile for them to establish themselves.  If the Yankees truly believe in Hughes, they owe him a shot.    

October 23, 2008

Important Dates

Now that both the Yankees and Red Sox are done for the 2008 season, here are a few important dates in anticipation of the Hot Stove League.

Day After World Series

October 15th or the day following the end of the World Series (whichever is later) marks the commencement of the 15-day period during which eligible players may elect free agency.

16th Day After World Series

First day Major League free agents may negotiate and sign with a club other than their former club.

Nov. 3-6, 2008

General Managers Meetings, Dana Point, Calif.  (Get your tickets now!)

Nov. 20, 2008

Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues

Dec. 1, 2008

Last date for former club to offer salary arbitration to ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation.

Dec. 7, 2008

Last date for player who declared free agency to accept an arbitration offer from former club.

Dec. 8-11, 2008

Winter Meetings, Las Vegas (Ok, this would be worth getting tickets for, don't expect much to be accomplished given the locale)

Dec. 11, 2008

Rule 5 Draft (the next Vaughn Eshelman perhaps?)

Dec. 12, 2008

Last date to tender contracts for 2009

-----

Please write these down and carry them around with you, they are important.

Mike Cameron

I was going to talk about Derek Lowe today, but there are a number of stories in the papers today about the Mets being interested in Mike Cameron so I thought I would take a look at him.  First thing with Cameron is that he is not a free agent- yet.  The Brewers have a $10-million option on him and they still haven't decided what to do about that.  If they exercise it, Cameron returns to the Brewers in '09 and this is moot.

But, let's say they don't, should the Yankees sign Cameron?  Let's consider centerfield for New York right now.  The Yankees do not want to invest a lot of $$ into center because they are hoping for Austin Jackson to step into the role and hopefully do so in 2010.  So, any player trotting out to center in a Yankees uniform should not be too comfortable. 

Option 1 would be putting Damon back in center, but I think the Yankees realize he can't handle the defense out there fulltime in 2009 and his arm is much better suited to left.  

Option 2 would be Gardner.  I like this idea, why not see what you have in Garnder before going outside the organization and bringing in another player?  Maybe Garnder can be a high OBP guy who can play defense.  The problem is, Gardner is a risk, a big one for a team trying to contend in 2009.  (I am not putting Melky into the conversation, almost 1500 AB's have given us a reasonable basis to say he isn't an everyday player)

So that leads us to Option 3 which is find someone who can play center for a year or maybe two and then vanish and Cameron is perfect in that role.  Yes, he strikes out way, way too much.  And he has had some problems with taking things he shouldn't have, but he is a plus OPS player at a tough position and he plays it well. He has also played in New York, so it won't be a shock to him.  I would prefer to roll the dice on Garnder and see what he can become, but signing Cameron to a two-year deal wouldn't be a bad move.

Manny Ramirez

Look, we have to go here, I just hope we don't spend a lot of time on this planet.  Anyone interested in improving the Yankees for 2009 has to at least consider that signing Manny would help.  And yes, I understand the guy is a total ass. 

But, you have to admit, other than A-Rod is there a better righty hitter in the game?  Plus, unlike A-Rod, Manny seems to do better when the pressure is on, thriving in the clutch.  (To be fair to A-Rod, no matter how much you don't like him you have to say he never would have quit on a team the way Manny quit on Boston earlier in 2008)  You could sign Manny in 2009, put him in left, Damon in center and Matsui at DH.  After 2009, Manny could split time between left and DH.  Plus, he would be coming back home- playing every night about 10 minutes from where he grew up.

If I type anymore, I am going to be sick.  Manny may be one of the most talented hitters I have ever seen, but he is also the biggest ass I have ever seen.  Boston fans adored him and defended him until he stopped playing for them and now LA is embracing him.  Don't be fooled, as soon as he is comfortable again he will stop playing at the same level and revert to his old habits.  The best thing in all of this is his agent, Scott Boras, comparing Manny to Bonds when saying he deserves a five or six-year deal.  (First question I would ask if I were the GM sitting across the table from Boras and Manny is "does Manny do HGH and other illegal steroids too?" because if that is the standard, I want to know my future player is doing eveything he can to emulate Bonds)  "Let the buyer beware" has never been a more appropriate saying ever.

I am not even going to waste your time with this nonsense.  instead, I want to know if there is a Yankees fan out there who wants Manny on the team in 2009?  Is there anyone who would like this move?

(And, I will make my pitch for signing a former Red Sox or two in the next few days) 

October 22, 2008

World Series Time

Hopefully, someone has told A-Rod this year that MLB doesn't want any announcements made over the next week because the World Series starts tonight.  Personally, I am rooting for the Phillies (the only Philadelphia team I would ever root for) but I would expect Tampa to win.  Who are you picking?


October 21, 2008

CC Sabathia

It wasn't the numbers that Sabathia put up when he went to Millwaukee, but the way he did it.  Not only did he dominate, but he showed guts, demanding the ball on three-days rest multiple times to pitch his team into the playoffs.  Whatever team lands him in 2009 will have a great pitcher at the front of their rotation.

The problem with Sabathia is the deal he is going to sign and the risks involved with it.  Let's assume he gets a deal similar or slightly better than the extension Johan Santana signed with the Mets.  That means six years and somewhere around $25 million a year.  That is simply tremendous money for anyone and especially a pitcher.  Sabathia has thrown over 600 innings the past two years and it is not a stretch to imagine his arm will wear out at some point during his upcoming deal.

So, does that mean it is too much of a risk to sign him?  For almost any other team than the Yankees the answer would probably be yes.  But, the Yankees are about to explode their revenues with a new ballpark and they are one of the few teams in the league (maybe the only one) that could put $25 million of their payroll into one player and not have to have a big contribution from him.  (And don't forget about the deal the Yankees signed with the Dallas Cowboys yesterday, that is going to make a lot of money for the team)  Signing him solves a lot of problems heading into 2009 and it only costs the Yankees draft picks.  Think of this as a mulligan on the Santana move.  New York needs to be the high bidder and they need to pull out all the stops to acquire him.  Yes, he may spend most of 2011 or 2012 on the DL, but in 2009 Sabathia returns the Yankees to contention.   I don't normally condone the buy the biggest name available approach, but in this case, get it done. 

October 20, 2008

Quick Take Red Sox 2009

c - ?

1b - Youkilis

2b - Pedroia

3b - Lowell

ss - Lowrie/Lugo

lf - Bay

cf - Ellsbury/Crisp

rf - Drew

dh - Ortiz

sp - Lester

sp - Beckett

sp - Matsuzaka

sp - Wakefield

sp - ?

rp - Papelbon

rp - Masterson

rp - Delcarmen

rp - Okajima

rp - ?

rp - ?

Above you have the Red Sox players currently under contract through next year or with whom the Red Sox hold rights.  The obvious hole for the line-up is catcher.  To a lesser extent will be who plays short and who plays center.  The shortstop answer to me will probably be Lowrie with Lugo being dealt unless Lugo expresses interest in staying in Boston in a hybrid bench/starter capacity.  As for Crisp/Ellsbury, I think with Drew's injury history, Crisp and Ellsbury will find plenty of time in 2009, so I think Crisp stays.

The Red Sox need another starter, 2 if they elect to walk away from Wakefield.  Clay Buchholz is one idea, assuming he's figure himself out and the Red Sox might decide they prefer Masterson back in a starters role, where he handled himself nicely in 2008.

Michael Bowden is an idea and of course there are a bunch of other AAA guys to consider, but none really standout.

Back to catcher.  If Varitek has truly entered the phase we saw in 2008, you know the phase catchers usually enter when they are 32, then he is probably only useful as a defender and pitch caller, but certainly not as a hitter.  In the minors their's George Kottaras and Dusty Brown.  Of course their's Kevin Cash, but while he did a good job as Varitek's back-up, he's never going to be better than he was this year.

If it were up to me, I'd sign Varitek to a 1 year deal at no more than $4mm, maybe $5mm a year with incentives to boost things if he returns to form (unlikely).  I'd use him in a platoon capacity with him getting all of the ABs against lefties and only spot duty against righties.  As for the other half of that platoon?  Beats me.  Maybe a trade is in order, just don't ask me for whom.

The bench was also exposed in the post-season.  Even had Lowell stayed healthy, the options off the bench for offense were Cora, Kotsay, Casey, Cash and Crisp/Ellsbury.  None of those guys hits for power.  I look at Matt Stairs in Philly and think he's the type of player the Red Sox could use.  Obviously you want versatile players off the bench, but isn't one of those characteristics in the versatility mix, power?  That's a skill set, no?

I'm not saying go get Stairs, but have someone on the bench who can go yard.  Jeff Bailey would have been my choice once Lowell went down.  Casey is fine, but really, really slow and has no power left.  Bailey had a great OBP (.405) at Pawtucket and a great SLG (.567).   Someone who can hit the long-ball is needed.  Cora, 0 HRs, Casey, 0 HRs, Kotsay, 0 HR, Cash, 3 HR, Crisp, 7 HR (in 409 Plate Appearances).  Where was the beef?  Bailey for Casey would have been OK with me.

Anyway, just wetting my whistle on Hot Stove talk.  More to come.

And if anyone things a major signing (Sabathia, Teixeira) or deal (Peavy) needs to happen, please chime in on who and why.

Perhaps It Is Time To Change The Speech?

I make no political statement with the following post, just thought this was kind of funny

Last week in Salem, NH, Governor Palin made the following statement to the crowd:

 "We're just 20 days out from the election and it's going to come right down to the wire, and we're counting on you because Red Sox fans know how to turn an underdog into a victor, and that's exactly what you can help us do on Nov. 4.

And then earlier this month in Jacksonville, FL, she said the following:

 "How about those Tampa Bay Rays? ... You know what that tells me; it tells me that the people in this area know a little something about turning an underdog into a victor. And we're counting on you to help us do that Nov. 4."

Pennsylvania is a pretty important state in this election, so expect to hear about the Phillies being an underdog that "knows how to win" soon. 

This Is A Problem

Tampa Bay just became a much, much tougher opponent last night.  One of the worst things about a Tampa-Boston ALCS was that the Yankees were going to have to open 2009 knowing they were playing in the same division as the AL champ.  In many ways, it would have been much better if it had been Boston again.  The Red Sox know they are good, they have won some titiles recently and another trip to the World Series would not have done that much to change them. 

Tampa on the other hand is a bunch of young guys who had no idea how good they were.  Now they absolutley know.  They survived on of the biggest in-game collpases in playoff history and now they are headed to the World Series.  I don't know what will happen there (again, go Phillies) but they will open 2009 a confident team.  And, they will be a young team.  Longoria, Upton, Garza, Shields, Kazmir...not one of those guys is even 27 yet.  Carl Crawford just turned 27, Carlos Pena is all of 30.  

The point is Tampa has a young and now experienced team.  The kind of team that can cause problems for the Yankees for years to come.  They were clearly better than New York in 2008 and unless something radical and I mean really radical changes they will be, at least on paper, heading into 2009.  If the Yankees had any doubts about having to get younger, I hope last night finally squashed them.  The future is in Tampa and not the part where the Yankees train.   

October 19, 2008

Clunker

Jon Lester did not lose game 7 of the ALCS, the Red Sox offense did.

Obviously credit is due to Matt Garza and the rest of the Rays bullpen (David Price for example), but for a gifted offensive team like the Red Sox to lay so many eggs in the ALCS, there's just no excuse.

I'm tempted to start talking about 2009, but the Rays are due their spoils.  They were better.  They were better in the regular season and obviously better in the post-season.

The Red Sox had a golden opportunity tonight and things got off to a good start, but, as the Rays proved all season, they weren't intimidated by a first inning home run off Garza and went on to take the AL crown.

There will be some significant moves in the off-season, there always are, but one major one is the possibility we just witnessed Jason Varitek's last AB in a Red Sox uniform (striking out mind you).  In addition, the fact David Ortiz wasn't Ortiz most of the season suggests a major upgrade in offense is in order.  Even with a healthy Ortiz, Mike Lowell and JD Drew, those guys aren't getting younger, something has to change.

Ok, I said I was ready to talk about 2009, but there I go again.  Let's let this sink in (phase one, sleeplessness, phase two, nausea, phase 3, projectile nausea, phase 4, anger, phase 5, rage, phase 6, depression, phase 7, more anger, phase 8, well, the list just goes on).

Ahead, Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia, just what MLB wanted for ratings...ahem.

Thanks TBS

You really have to hand it to TBS and their "router failure" last night, what a joke.  Maybe it failed because it saw one thousand too many "Frank TV" ads?  (Side note, I love Frank Caliendo and think he is one of the most talented comedians out there, but I am not going to watch his show out of spite at this point.  There is such a thing as overkill and TBS has gone way, way over that line with these promos.)

The oddsmakers have favored the Red Sox tonight by 1-1/2 runs, which makes sense.  At this point, momentum and everything else are on the Boston side and it would be very surprising if Tampa pulls this out.  You know they are going up there thinking "we were seven outs away from winning this thing" and that is not going to help them in tight spots tonight.  (Side note #2, for those of you thinking I am rooting against the Red Sox, I am not, I really want both teams to lose I just can't figure out how to make that happen.  Whatever happens tonight, go Phillies!)  At least the playoffs have finally giving us a compelling game.  The first round was pretty bad and the NLCS was miserable.  We have a real series here and as a baseball fan I am thankful (again see side note #2). 

In off the field news, Joba Chamberlain was pulled over for a DUI.  Joba isn't talking and the Yankees aren't talking which is absolutely the wrong approach to take at this point.  Driving around with an open container of alcohol in your car shows a blatant disregard for others.  We keep hearing stories about Joba and his Dad and what a good job his Dad did raising him, well time to walk that walk.  This may just be a dumb mistake, but it is a terrible example to kids and Joba needs to step up and admit it and apologize for it. 

Anyway, enjoy the game tonight, should be interesting to say the least. 

UPDATE: Joba has apologized, good for him.  

October 18, 2008

Mark Teixeira

Of all the offensive players available this offseason, Tex is clearly the class of the bunch.  He can hit and he plays a great firstbase.  Adding him to the the Yankees lineup would easily replace Giambi and upgrade the defense at the sametime. 

But, there is an inherent problem with signing Mark, you plug up first for the forseeable future.  Heading into 2009 the Yankees have a logjam of players who have positional questions hanging over them.  Will Posada be able to catch regularly?  Will Matsui be able to do anything except DH?  And longer term, they will need to find a position for Derek Jeter soon. 

On the other side, both Damon and Matsui enter the last year of their deals in 2009, which means in 2010 Posada could be a fulltime DH if needed.  That makes signing Teixeria doable, but there is one more factor to consider, his agent.  Boras is going to try and get a big deal for his player and it is important to remember that Mark will be 29 next season.  Signing him for more than six years is going to create problems down the road.  I just don't think Boras will settle for that, but if for some reason he does, the Yankees should and probably will be the high bidder.   

October 17, 2008

Reports of the Red Sox Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Lifeless, quiet and stunned.  That is a fairly decent description of both the Red Sox players and their fans.  There was nothing.

In the 7th, I told myself someone has to do something special to keep this series alive.  Well, many Red Sox stepped forward.  David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Jonathan Papelbon, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and J.D. Drew again.

Now let's be real here, the Red Sox head back to Tampa Bay down 2-3.  Not a pretty picture, but, to dust off a well used cliché, the Red Sox need to take it one game at a time.  There was a momentum change and a boost in confidence for Boston.  They need to keep it going.

A fantastic game, coming back from 7-0 deficit, but much work remains.

October 16, 2008

Got Them Where They Want Them

First off, sorry to not post more frequently during this ALCS, but I've been moving around a bit and frequently find myself without internet access.

On to the ALCS:

Boston hasn't hit and hasn't pitched.  That basically sums up their performance since game 2 (not that they hit much in game 1).  David Ortiz is lost, Jacoby Ellsbury is lost, Jason Varitek remains lost, Kotsay, Drew, Lowrie, all lost!  the only ones producing are Pedroia, Bay and Youkilis and to a lesser extent, Coco Crisp.

As a team the Red Sox are hitting .232/.323/.415 in the ALCS.  Not good.

But surely their pitching has been good, right?  No.  7.17 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP.  Ugly.

Well, we can go on and on about who is doing what and what the underlying issues are, but that is a waste of time.  The fact is, the Red Sox seem to do this to themselves in every post-season.  2003, down 0-2 to the A's in the ALDS.  2004, down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS.  2007, down 1-3 to the Indians (after winning game 1).  Why do they let it get to this point?  The Red Sox are a good team, why such a flop in crucial games?  Why make life so difficult?

The good news about the aforementioned series is that they did come back in all 3 to win the series in question and in 2 of the 3 years, went on to win the World Series.

But doing it again would be going to the well one too many times.  I mean, there is no way they can come back again, right?  An absurd thought, correct?

We'll find out tonight and hopefully Friday Saturday and Sunday too.  Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the mound and will try to actually pitch well unlike his fellow starters Josh "I'm healthy" Beckett, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield.

As for Terry Francona, I was frustrated with his decision making in game 2, but there was nothing he could have done in games 3 and 4.  The Red Sox players just stunk.

These are maddeningly frustrating times (as in Joe Maddon).  Man it would be sweet to see this team put it together tonight with good lead-off hitting and table-setting, good middle of the line-up hitting and productive at bats from the bottom third.  In other words, just seeing the Red Sox play how they're capable would be rewarding.

Tampa Bay is a good team, so no matter how well the Red Sox play, it is likely to be tough, but at least go down with a fight.

October 14, 2008

Bye Bobby

Bobby Meacham is out as the third base coach in a move that is clearly a shot across Girardi's bow.  Meacham was his friend and coached for him in Florida.  After the season, Girardi even said that he didn't anticipate any changes to his coaches.  Apparently, Cashman felt differenly and he fired Meacham.

I can't argue with the move, Meacham wasn't good at all, but it will be very interesting to see who gets the third base job.  If the Yankees hire Willie Randolph for it, Girardi better win and win big next year or you will have #30 managing the club.

This Makes No Sense

I was looking at the ALCS and NLCS schedules last night and realized something, they are different from the Wrold Series.  My apologies for being a year late on this (they added an extra day in 2007) but how can baseball do this? MLB has added an extra day to both series so they now have a scheduled off-day between Games 4 and 5.  Yet, in the World Series, the biggest stage for baseball, no such off-day exists.

I don't understand the logic here, why use it in one series and not another?  In the LCS, a team could pitch a starter three times by using him in Game 1, then Game 4 on short rest and then Game 7 on full rest.  In the World Series that can only be done by using the pitcher on short rest twice.  It seems crazy to operate under two sets of rules.

The reason has to be TV.  I don't know this for sure, but I suspect it was done to allow the networks to put more games into primetime.  By having only one game on a given night, which they accomplish up to eight times with this system,  the networks increase exposure.  The thing is, I think they kill the momentum of a series.  The Phillies staged a great comeback last night and after Game 3's testiness, people are into the series.  It would be fun to see if they can finish the job tonight.  But, thanks to the new schedule, there will be an off-day today and if the Dodgers win, another one on Thursday.  That means one game in three days, not exactly the way to keep everyone interested.  The same thing will happen in the ALCS if they go beyond five games. 

Maybe TV should stop worrying about trying to create drama and just let it happen.  They have had some bad luck this postseason with their best story (The Cubs) getting swept in the first round and not having any of the first round series go the distance.  If the Dodgers get eliminated, they will lose another big story, not that any of us will feel sorry for them.   

 

October 13, 2008

You Had To Know This Would Happen

This story from MLB.com checks in on Scott Proctor.  Not surprisingly, he is having elbow surgery shortly.

I love Joe Torre, but he has not done right by Proctor.  I hope he makes sure that Scott gets a big contract in the future, the guy has earned it.


October 12, 2008

Airing of Grievances

A quick check-in after game 2.  Terry Francona has been a wonderful coach and certainly his body of work with the Red Sox speaks for itself.  But last night was clearly an off-night for the Red Sox manager.

First off, Josh Beckett is broken right now.  He is firing on only 5 of 6 cylinders right now (using my car as an example, 1 of 2 cylinders).  While I can't fault Francona for running Beckett out there last night, I can fault him for keeping him out there.  It was fairly evident that he didn't have his fastball (topping out at 92-93, a good 2-4 off the norm) and general game presence.

Why then did he insist on keeping Beckett on the mound?  The Red Sox fought back twice to retake the lead only to have Beckett give it up again.  By the 3rd inning, Francona should have had enough.  Paul Byrd was sitting in the bullpen just ready to be asked to come in and help.  But no call came.  Why is he on the team?  This would have been the best opportunity to use him.

Byrd wouldn't have provided any guarantees, but he would have been a change of pace and perhaps a better option.  But Francona pushed the issue until the Red Sox again were behind.

Ok, on to the last inning of the game.  Mike Timlin in for the Red Sox.  Wait, why?  Why Timlin?  He has been bad all year and is not a MLB caliber pitcher anymore.  In fact, his last season has been a nightmare.  You always want players you respect and pulled for to go gracefully into the night, well, Timlin isn't doing that.  He has been a disaster and lost 2 big games at the hands of the Rays this year, last night's being the bigger of the two.

But Timlin is a pitcher and he wants to pitch, it is Francona who needed to tell Timlin that he wasn't going to be a part of the post-season.  Instead, for whatever reason, he not only put Timlin on the roster, he gave him the ball in extra-innings.  Disaster.

I know Francona to be good and I expect he'll continue to be good, but he needs to know that last night's handling of the pitching staff was dreadful.

Back to Boston for game 3, 4 & 5.

October 08, 2008

Offense

Look at the difference between the 2007 and 2008 Yankees and you can chalk up the win differential on the lack of offense.  There are plenty of reasons for that, from a terrible season by Robinsn Cano to way too many AB's for Cabrera and Molina.  Let's look at the current 40-man and talk about who comes back and who has to go.

Catchers:  The Yankees ended the season with five catchers on their 40-man and they will cut that down to 3 immediately.   Chad Moeller and Ivan Rodriguez will be allowed to depart and that leaves the team with Posada, Molina and Cervelli.  Now, the Yankees will keep all three, but they need to look long and far for a better backup than Molina.  Yes, Molina is wonderful with the pitchers, but he can't hit and he isn't, how should I put this, "built" to play everyday.  Remember, Posada is coming to camp off of shoulder surgery.  The Yankees would love him to catch 120 games next year, but that may not be realistic.  The problem is, nobody will know what Posada can and can't do until he makes it to camp.  Counting on him to be the regular cacther is a risky move.

Infielders: We know Jeter and A-Rod are back and beyond that you have a lot of questions.  I would look around and see if there are better bench players than Betemit, Duncan and Ransom.  All three of them are flawed players, but the Yankees don't have anything in the minors better right now.  That will hopefully change towards the end of the year when the promising players in AA in 2008 do well in 2009, but for now the best idea is to probably just bring the three of them back and sit tight.

Juan Miranda is an interesting guy, buy I don't know his real age and he hasn't hit for enough power in the minors to give him a job out of camp. 

And that brings us to Jason Giambi.  There are some compelling reasons to bring Jason back, most of all his patience at the plate.  But, with Posada and Matsui coming off of surgery and Giambi useless at first, the Yankees have to free up his spot and let him go.  They will miss his bat, but deleting him from the roster gives them flexibility.  

Outfielders: Hideki Matsui is the only lock to come back and that is because no one will take him off of knee surgery.  Matsui has volunteered to bring a first baseman's glove to camp and Brian Cashman should let him.  Flexibility is great and not having to use Matsui as a DH everyday would be a plus.

Damon and Nady should be back, but the Yankees shouldn't be afraid to trade either of them in the right deal.  Most likely they are staying and you can pencil them in for left and right, though it should be remembered that Nady played first before.

There is no reason not to give Gardner, Christian and Cabrera another shot, though Gardner is probably the only one who can still be called a prospect.  Cabrera went backwards in 2008 and it is doubtful the Yankees would get much from him on the trade market.  Christian is too old to be a prospect, but his speed could help a team off the bench (assuming he learns how to avoid getting picked off)

Gardner is the most interesting guy because it is still unclear what he is.  One interesting pattern with Gardner has been his tendency to struggle when he comes to a new level and then it clicks for him.  He was awful in July and then hit a little bit in September.  Giving him the CF job is a big risk, but the Yankees may want to take a shot.  Austin Jackson is clearly the future, but he won't be ready probably until 2010.  With Jackson in the system, signing or trading for a centerfielder doesn't make a ton of sense.  Can Gardner handle 150 games in center?  I don't know if anyone can answer that question.

Last is Bobby Abreu, who had a very nice offensive season and a terrible defensive one.  Losing Giambi and Abreu from the lineup would be big losses and I think the Yankees should offer Bobby arbitration.  If he accepts it, you bring him back for one year, which isnt a huge risk.  (Remember Nady has played first) If he doesn't, the more likely scenario, you get draft picks.  To me that's a win-win, I wouldn't do anything else lke trying to sign him to a new deal.   

That's three more off the 40-man and possibly more if there are some better infield options out there.  We will start talking about free agents soon.   

October 07, 2008

On To Round 2

The Red Sox beat the best team in baseball last night and they didn't deserve to.  Just ask the Angels.

They managed to take 3 of 4 from LA and while it wasn't pretty, it worked.

The irony of last night's game was that Mike Scioscia, who has the reputation of being a master of manufacturing runs, went to the well one too many times.  In the 9th inning, with a man on 3rd and 1 out, Scioscia ordered a squeeze.  The problem, as most of know by now is that the Angels' Erick Aybar missed the pitch allowing Jason Varitek to tag the runner out before getting to third.

The squeeze is one of those plays that when it works against your team, it just feels awful (I'm writing from a fan's perspective), but when it blows up in the oppositions face, well, there's a feeling of "serves you right."  I guess it's the macho notion that runs should be scored via slugging, not bunting.  That being said, I have no problem with the squeeze as a legitimate method of scoring, but the primitive part of me thinks it's inherently wrong.

Now if I'm the Angels players, I would be very upset, they did win 100 regular season games and probably had high expectations.  Most of them spoke of being angry and frustrated about the loss.  Pitcher John Lackey took it a step further "It's way different than last year. We are way better than they are. We lost to a team not as good as us."

Lackey went on to say, "[Referring to Sunday's game] they scored on a pop fly they called a hit, which is a joke. "[Tonight], they score on a broken-bat ground ball and a fly ball anywhere else in America. And [Pedroia's] fist-pumping on second like he did something great."

Classy Lackey, classy.  I know you are angry, but try being mature, or maybe that's as mature as you get.

No matter the outcome of the 2008 season for the Red Sox, it should be interesting when the Red Sox face Lackey in 2009.  I think Pedroia will try to mix it up a bit.  Perhaps by using the Trot Nixon "oops the bat slipped out of my hands while swinging and whizzed right by your head" technique.  We shall see.

On to Tampa Bay.  This series should be exciting and difficult.  More on that later.

Notes:  Mike Lowell was removed from the active roster because of his hip.  In yet another example Red Sox management reads this site, they acted on a specific recommendation that I made.  Yes, I know all...some...very little...whatever.

Lowell was not helping the team and it just makes sense to let him heal.  Lowell fully endorsed the move recognizing that his physical condition made playing baseball effectively unlikely.

Lowell was replaced on the active roster by Gil Velazquez.  It is near impossible Velazquez finds himself in this situation.  As a non hitting career minor leaguer, Velazquez has turned his talents with his glove into a playoff roster spot.  Wow.  At 28 years old (29 in 10 days), he toiled in the minors until September of this year.  A good story, but I'm certainly hoping I don't see him play an inning unless it is in a blow-out.

Round 2.

October 06, 2008

Slump

Dustin Pedroia: 0-13

Mike Lowell: 0-8

David Ortiz: 3-13

Jason Varitek: 2-11

Total: 5-45 = .111

Those 4 hitters are collectively hitting .111 thus far in the ALDS.  That isn't good, is it.

The Red Sox were not good last night and the only reason they got the game into extra innings was because of a colossal error (rule a hit) by the Angels that allowed 3 runs to score on a single.

Terry Francona needs to tell Mike Lowell that he is a great guy, but he can't play baseball right now.  Jed Lowrie at 3rd, Cora at SS or Youkilis to 3rd, Kotsay or Casey to 1st.  No way Lowell can play.  He is at 60% tops.  His body is a mess and more importantly, he cannot hit with his hip condition.  His defense is important, but even that is limited right now.  Sit him Terry.

Tonight we see a rematch of game one.  It is too bad the Red Sox couldn't finish the job last night as having Lester to start game one of the ALCS would have been great.  Now the Red Sox need to focus on tonight's game as there is no way they want to go back to Anaheim.

October 03, 2008

Game 2

The Boston Globe is reporting Mike Lowell is a scratch for game 2.  So is Jed Lowrie.  Lowell is sitting because Terry Francona wants a healthy Lowell vs. Angels game 3 starter lefty Joe Saunders.

Lowrie is sitting because Francona decided before the series began that Alex Cora would get the start.  No injury, no benching.

Lastly, Josh Beckett is a definite for game 3.

October 02, 2008

Table Turner

Game 1 sort of snuck up on me.  So I figured I'd cover a few quick things first.

Playoff Roster:

C (3)- Jason Varitek, Kevin Cash and David Ross

IF (7) - Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Mike Lowell, Alex Cora, David Ortiz and Sean Casey

OF (5) - Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp and Mark Kotsay

SP (3) - Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett

RP (7) - Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Justin Masterson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Paul Byrd and Tim Wakefield

Notable left off:  Mike Timlin - Great teammate, but not viable option anymore.

The 10 man staff is all that is needed given the Red Sox have 2 long/extra long relief options in Byrd and Wakefield.  Let's hope they don't need them.

Red Sox players making playoff debuts:  Jason Bay, Justin Masterson, Jed Lowrie and Kevin Cash (yet to appear).

Last night's win was a great start for Boston.  Winning game one on the road gives them home field advantage and proves they can beat this Angels team despite going 1-8 against them during the regular season.

That being said, this series is far from over.  Josh Beckett threw an "aggressive" side session today and threw all of his pitches without limitation.  That is very good news for Boston.

Much was made of the blooper over first where Vlad Guerrero was thrown out at 3rd base.  Great play by Youkilis and a poor play by Guerrero to be sure.  But even if Vlad had stayed at 2nd, the inning would have ended on a double play.  Yes, I'm assuming all post-Guerrero blunder events would have stayed the same.

Jason Bay looked absolutely terrible in his first 2 at bats but sure made up for it with one swing.  Glad he got a couple of big hits in game one to get that potential "first game in the playoffs" monkey off his back.

Lowrie's error, which led to the Angels run, was his first error as a Major Leaguer at shortstop.

Lastly, the Angels fans look utterly deflated last night.  Granted losing game one in any playoff series is a bad idea, but they look as though it was a one game playoff.  Game 2 tomorrow night Angels fans.  Cheer up, your team is good and this series ain't over.  But have some respect, keep cheering until the end and support your team.  No sulking until the game is over.

Pitchers Part II

If there is one area that you can say Joe Girardi did a very good job in this year it was his handling of the bullpen.  Joe Torre had a tendency to overwork certain guys to death, leaving Rivera as the only healthy arm by the end of the season.  Girardi took a more democratic approach using different guys in different spots and generally not defining too many roles.  He even got Kyle Farnsworth to be productive which is simply amazing.  There are ten guys on the 40-man who are relieved this year that we haven't spoken about, let's look at them in the groups we used yesterday: Get rid of, allow to compete, pencil into a spot:

The get rid of pile consists of two pitchers: Damaso Marte and Chris Britton.  Marte was a good idea that just didn't work out. He has an option for next year at $6-million which is way too much money for his performance.  He actually pitched pretty well against lefties in New York, but righties shelled him.  Either way, it's time to move on.  As for Britton, I don't know who he pissed off in the organization, but it is clear it is someone.  I have a feeling it may have something to do with his conditioning, or lack thereof.  Either way, the Yankees have a bunch of younger pitchers who they should protect on the roster and Britton is a casualty to make room for them.

The pencil them in pile consists of three pitchers: Rivera, Bruney and Veras.  Mo is obvious and Bruney and Veras showed enough in 2008 to warrant spots in 2009.  The thing that impressed me the most about Bruney this year was his rehab from injury.  He could have settled for surgery, but he worked hard got back into the bigs and pitched well.  Veras' second half swoon concerns me, but I think it might have more to do with a tired arm (he only pitched 30 innings in 2007 due to injury) than anything else.  Either way, he showed enough to get a spot in the 2009 pen.

And that bring us to the five other guys who pitched in 2008, but don't have a role yet in 2009: Albie, Coke, Ramirez, Robertson and Sanchez.  Coke is going to get every chance to be a lefty in the pen in '09 and I hope the Yankees save their money this offseason and don't sign any reliever to a big deal because guys like Robertson, Ramirez and Sanchez can probably be just as effective at a much cheaper cost.  I liked what I saw in Albie before he got hurt and he should be given a chance to make the club.

We have three guys who didn't pitch this year but are on the 40-man: Brackman, Marquez and Chase Wright.  Brackman is rehabbing and has an ETA of 2010.  Marquez was bad this year, but he will be given another chance at AAA.  Chase Wright had a very nice year at AA/AAA and should get a shot in camp to pitch his way into a job. 

So, we have three starters and three bullpen roles set.  I would suggest that Hughes should get a starting role in 2009 and the bullpen will probably shake out with some combination of Ramirez, Sanchez, Robertson, Albie, Coke and Aceves filling the remaining three or four spots.   I therefore wouldn't spend a lot of money on pitching, with the exception of adding one starter.  We will talk about that starter next week, but for now we will focus on the offense tomorrow.

October 01, 2008

This Just In

This Just In...like a few hours ago, both Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew are expected in the line-up tonight for game 1, with both playing the field.

 

Pitchers Part 1

Thanks to injuries and poor performance, the 2008 Yankees used a total 13 starting pitchers.  Unlucky 13 it was and when you start planning for 2009, you start with the rotation.  You can group these 13 into three categories.  Those you pencil in for starting next year, those you get rid of and those you bring to camp with a chance to compete.

Let's start with the good-byes and it comes down to four pitchers: Pavano, Ponson, Igawa and Mussina.  The first two are obvious and I doubt there is a Yankees' fan out there who disagrees.  Igawa is a bit tougher because of the investment they made, but the money is spent and the Yankees need to peddle him off for as much salary relief as they can find.  At this point, there is really no reason to keep him on the 40-man roster and the Yankees could use the space.

It is obviously the inclusion of Mussina on this list that will spark the most outrage.  Yes, I know he "reinvented" himself and pitched very well in 2008.  He cut his walks and increased his strikeouts, it was a very impressive season and it was great to see him win his 20th.  But, he is about to turn 40 and history shows that pitchers over 40 do not hold up well.  Maybe he can replicate his 2008 season, but I am betting he can't and history is on my side.  Throw in the fact that if he returns he will want a multi-year deal ("If I'm in for one, I am in for three," he said) and bringing him back becomes an even worse idea.  Mussina may make this all moot be retiring on his own, but the Yankees need to avoid the temptation of bringing him back.

Next is the bring to camp and let compete for a role group which include 5 pitchers: Rasner, Giese, Aceves, Kennedy, Hughes.  Now if you want to tell me Rasner isn't good enough for the bigs and you point me to his second half stats, I can't really argue with you.  But, I think there is enough there that you bring him to camp and let him try and earn a spot.  Plus, he is cheap, so why not?  Giese is probably in the same category as Rasner, but he pitched better in 2008.  I would recommend the same treatment.

Aceves is intriguing because he looked good on the mound and the results were very good.  But, it was only 30 innings and September is not a good month to use to evaluate a pitcher (See Kennedy, Ian- 2007)  I think Aceves ultimately becomes the long man in the pen/spot starter.  If the Yankees want to limit Joba's innings in 2009 (and every indication is they do) then Aceves could be very valuable because you could drop him in for a start here and there.  He may be better than that though and he should enter camp with a chance to make the rotation.

The same should be said of Ian Kennedy.  Kennedy really had an awful year on and off the mound with his comments.  But, the talent is there and the Yankees need to give him every chance to make the club in 2009.

And that brings us to Hughes.  On my 2009 Yankees Hughes is in the rotation.  But, Brian Cashman cannot go out on that limb again after 2008.  Hughes is frustrating because you can see he has the stuff, you just have to hope he brings it together.  He comes to camp with that chance. 

And that leaves us with the "final four" so to speak: Wang, Joba, Pettitte and Bruney (yes Bruney started a game)  Bruney is coming back with a role in the 2009 bullpen which we can discuss later.  Wang is obvious and Joba is too with the caveat that he should be a starter full-time in 2009.  The Yankees should get creative with his usage, six innings a start and 25 starts would bring him to 150.  Wang and Joba are a nice 1-2 punch and the Yankees can supplement that with some free agent spending (more on that tomorrow)

It's Pettitte who is the tough call.  His second half numbers were awful, but he had elbow problems.  I don't want him as the top guy in the rotation, but bringing him back to eat innings at a reduced salary is not a bad idea.  If you break down Pettitte's 2008 season in comparison to 2007 the difference really comes down to "batting average for balls in play" which went from .329 to .341.  In other words, he suffered more bad luck in 2008 than 2007.  If you could bring him back for say $8-million I say do it.

That leaves you with 3 starters penciled in for 2009.  More tomorrow