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July 31, 2008

So Much Joy

With Jason Bay coming to the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez gone, we can now rid ourselves of the headache that was Manny Ramirez.  I don't know much about Bay as a person, but this whole thing is addition by subtraction in some sense.

I have to imagine Manny's teammates were just sick of going to battle while he took time off.  The resentment is gone (or will go) and they can now focus on playing good baseball and know that Bay will be one of them.  Add to it that Bay is no slouch and happens to be a left fielder to boot.

Friday night is Bay's potential debut.

As for the deal itself, it looks like this based on reports:  Manny to LA (sorry Joe Torre), Jason Bay to Boston and 4 prospects to Pittsburgh.  Of those 4, two are from Boston's system, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss.  I'll miss Moss a bit as he seemed to play the game the right way and showed signs of being a Major Leaguer.  Hansen's act had grown thin and it is probably good for him to get a fresh start.

Bay a Red Sox, Manny a Dod...Who Cares

Final Update:  Jon Heyman broke this thing, Manny to the Dodgers and Jason Bay to the Red Sox.  The Pirates will get 4 minor leaguers.  I assume 4 total from the Dodgers and Red Sox.  Early reports suggest that it is Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen.

Initial Post:  Boston Globe writer Gordon Edes is reporting that Manny has been traded but offers no details.  He posted just at few minutes ago at 4:20pm.  Stay tuned.

4:31pm - Update:  Perhaps to the Dodgers per MLBTraderumors.com via SI's Jon Heyman.

4:32pm - Update:  Now Cafardo is saying 3-team deal, Manny to Dodgers, Bay to Boston.

Framework in Place - Not Done Yet

By now we all know there is talk of a 3-way deal between the Red Sox, Pirates and Marlins.  The main players involved are Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay and Jeremy Hermida.

The Pirates wind up with Hermida

The Marlins wind up with Ramirez

The Red Sox wind up with Bay.

.299/.398/.529 - 20 HR, 68 RBI, 365 ABs- Ramirez

.282/.375/.519 - 22 HR, 64 RBI, 393 ABs - Bay

Those are their 2008 stats.  Pretty similar with Ramirez getting the edge (more production in less at bats).  But otherwise, Bay isn't a significant downgrade based on 2008 alone.  Bay is signed through 2009 (approx $9mm in 2009) meaning the Red Sox could either work out an extension with him or let him go (most likely as a type A free agent) and get 2 picks for him.

A look at a larger sample size is a good idea, so lets take the past 5 years (2004-2008):

.303/.401/.573 - 163 HR, 532 RBI, 2419 ABs - Ramirez

.281/.374/.515 - 136 HR, 440 RBI, 2511 ABs - Bay

Again, nod to Ramirez (landslide).  But when you factor in age (Bay is 29, Ramirez is 36), and you look at Ramirez's production last year and this, the trade is a bit more even, but certainly Ramirez is the better hitter.  Where the trade potentially swings to the Red Sox favor is defensively, a hustle standpoint and a clubhouse standpoint, all vague and near impossible things to measure to be sure but important nonetheless.

This is a no-win situation for Boston but I think their best move is to get as much as possible in a move for Ramirez.  If after taking in offers they feel they are a better team with him, so be it.  I'm glad to learn though that they are kicking the tires and if Bay indeed is an option, I'd do it.

July 30, 2008

Cashman Strikes Again

Someone has to explain to me how Cashman pulled this one off.  I mean seriously, getting anything for Hawkins is amazing and I feel sorry for the Astros' fans out there because I have no idea what your GM is doing.

The prospect isn't a great prospect, he ranked 29th in the Houston system (which was rated the worst in baseball) but there are doubts that he can do anything more than hit.  Hey, it doesn't matter, this was truly something for nothing.

I would like to point out one last thing about Cashman and the Yankees.  They seem to have a fairly unique ability to make trades without anyone knowing about them ahead of time.  Think of the countless rumors you have read the past week or so and did you see any about Nady, Marte or Pudge before the trades happened?  I don't know how they do it, but it is worth remembering.  Who knows what will happen tomorrow. 

T-Minus 19 Hours

We are less than 19 hours from the MLB non-waiver trade deadline.  After seeing the Red Sox nearly no-hit last night, I am struggling to contain my concern.

One game is obviously too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, but the Red Sox are officially flat.

Stats:  The Red Sox are 27-23 over their last 50 games.  11-15 over their last 26 and 11-12 in July.  That's not good baseball.

If for no other reason than to inject some new blood in this team, I think Theo Epstein and co. need to make a move.  Not a move for moves sake necessarily, but to try and improve the team...at any position.

I write this while watching one of the worst Red Sox performances of the year.  They can't pitch, can't field and can't hit.  They look like fools right now.  Again a one game sample size, but definitely the worst performance of the year.

Something's got to give.

Well maybe that's true, rumors abound that the Red Sox are speaking with the Florida Marlins about a deal sending Manny Ramirez and getting either Jeremy Hermida or Josh Willingham and prospects.  There is also talk about a 3-way deal with the Red Sox trading Ramirez and ultimately getting Jason Bay from Pittsburgh.

A good chance nothing will happen of course, but the sheer number of writers reporting rumors with Ramirez suggest to me anyway, that something could be happening.

MLBTradeRumors compiles all the rumors and has the following writers talking about a Ramirez deal:

Ken Rosenthal - Fox Sports

Gordon Edes - Boston Globe

Jayson Stark - ESPN

Joe Frisaro - MLB.com

Jim Molony - MLB.com

John Perrotto - Baseball Prospectus

Buster Olney - ESPN

Dan Graziano - NJ Star-Ledger

Will Carroll - Baseball Prospectus

That's quite a few writers reporting on the same deal.  Volume doesn't mean anything necessarily, but a few of these guys are well respected writers and some, well some I've never heard of.  Evaluating all the noise, I think I would be happy with Jason Bay for Ramirez or Josh Willingham.  I wouldn't mind Jeremy Hermida, but he is a lefty and suddenly your 3-4-5 hitters are lefties, makes little sense.  Hermida would be great past 2008, but not a good fit for now.

For those who missed it, Manny is still pushing for a trade in his own way.  Manny talking with ESPN Deportes today.

"The Red Sox don't deserve a player like me.  During my years here, I've seen how they have mistreated other great players when they didn't want them to try to turn the fans against them.

"The Red Sox did the same with guys Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez, and now they do the same with me. Their goal is to paint me as the bad guy.  I love Boston fans, but the Red Sox don't deserve me. I'm not talking about money. Mental peace has no price, and I don't have peace here."

I'm not sure where to start.  I think the first thing to say is this.  Manny, you are a bozo.  Any chance the Red Sox knew what they were dealing with with Nomar and Pedro?  I think they are 2-2 on those non-deals.  Manny, the fans don't like you anymore.  Sure you have your die-hards, but your act is a joke.  Fans like the Red Sox more than just the individual players.  You don't get it and you never will.  Go away.

I think that sums things up.  I have to assume part of his rhetoric is just an act to get a deal done, but he sure is pushing my buttons.  I am happy to know that Red Sox management deals with things in a business-like manner and doesn't get emotional (or as emotional) as I might.  Hopefully they are weighing the good and bad with any possible deal and will make the appropriate evaluations.

If I had access to the "please trade Manny" Red Button, I'd have pushed it already.  Deep breaths, keep it together....KIT.  There, that's better.  Anyway, stay tuned, anything can happen between now and 4pm tomorrow.

Wow

Cashman is on a roll, Pudge for Farnsworth?

Farnsworth certainly improved himself this year, but losing him is no great shakes and Pudge drastically upgrades the cacthing situation.  He is a free agent at the end of this season and he is having a nice year .295/.338/.417 for a catcher and that OPS of .755 is almost .200 points above Molina plus you don't lose any defense.

The question is who goes to the 8th inning now?  Is it Veras or Marte?  Does this mean that JB Cox or Patterson are on their way from Scranton?   

UPDATE: Girardi and Farnwsorth both cried on camera over the deal.  I have no idea what to make of that.  

July 29, 2008

A Bad Night

On the field, the Yankees woke up too late.  Off the field, the Angels just got a lot better and the Yankees have 10 games with them.  Not a good night in either aspect.

I guess the good news is that Hughes went three shutout innings in Charleston.  Some guy named Pavano pitched too, but that's probably a typo in the box score.  In addition, Kennedy pitched very well at Scranton tonight.  Sidney Ponson is definitely on the clock. 

Keep An Eye On Charleston Tonight

Tonight will be a big night for the Yankees off the field.  Phil Hughes is taking the mound for Charleston and Chien-Ming Wang is getting his boot off.  Hughes will throw about 35 pitches in the first step towards rehab.  Assuming it goes well, he should start again next week and you could probably expect him to be back in the majors around the end of August. 

Wang will take longer, he will be on crutches until next week and then start throwing.  I wouldn't expect him on any mound until mid-August and then it is a matter of getting back into game shape.  

I don't think the Yankees feel a lot of pressure to deal for Washburn because they can always claim him on waivers and I don't think many other teams would risk assuming his salary.  Remember, he would be offered to every AL team first in reverse order of the standings, so if things stay as they are, the Yankees get a shot at him before Boston. 

If Hughes shows them something tonight, it will lessen the need for a trade.  And, remember Ian Kennedy is pitching much better at AAA.  At some point the Yankees will give him another chance in the bigs, it could be very soon if Ponson bombs again.   

Names and More Names

Gammons is reporting the Red Sox are interested in Doug Brocail but are not interested in Miguel Tejada.  Further proof Red Sox management reads this site (and is greatly influenced by it).

MLBTradeRumors reports that Projo's Sean McAdam believes the Red Sox are interested in lefty Ron Mahay.  While the Herald's Rob Bradford says they are looking at Geoff Geary, Brian Fuentes, George Sherrill (he'd be a nice pick-up!) and Will Ohman.

So many names, so little likelihood.

 

July 28, 2008

Tejada Talk

ESPN Deportes is reporting that the Red Sox are interested in Miguel Tejada.  Giving credit where credit is due, I got this from MLBTradeRumors.

Tejada in Boston, eh?  Interesting.  Would the Red Sox trade for Tejada to play baseball or act as a Manny Ramirez babysitter?

ESPN's Peter Gammons tore Manny apart today in his blog.  Gammons points out that Manny has decided he was hurt when it came time to face some of the toughest pitchers in baseball in 2008:

Felix Hernandez - twice

Joba Chamberlain - twice

Edison Volquez - once

Justin Verlander - once

In addition, he says Manny leaves David Ortiz to "face the heat" for him.

I guess my cynical side says this trade idea is an insurance policy.  Bring in Tejada to make sure the Red Sox don't "lose" Manny.  Well, I don't like it.  Tejada would cost Boston $4m this year and $13mm in 2009.  All for a player who is 2 years older than we thought and not hitting like a $13mm a year player.  His current .738 OPS is his lowest since his 2nd year in the Majors.

Manny is forcing an enhanced risk management program.

Also, can you seriously argue that Tejada is that much better than Jed Lowrie (.732 OPS) or Julio Lugo (.683 OPS).  I would say his glove would be an improvement for sure (especially over Lugo), but not much else at an enormous expense (especially in 2009).  With Tejada being mentioned heavily in the Mitchell report, that's just makes this rumor upsetting.

It's too bad the Red Sox have to worry if Manny will tank it the rest of the way instead of just having to focus on getting that player or players to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Posada Having Surgery

Kim Jones just announced on YES that Posada will undergo shoulder surgery soon.  Apparently, the acquistion of Xavier Nady led the Yankees to this decision.  It's a good move because with a six-month recovery, any further delays would put 2009 in jeopardy.

Jones also reported that the trade for Washburn "is probably not going to happen".  

 

July 27, 2008

Trading the Savant

While this is hardly late-breaking news (I got it from Peter and MLBtraderumors.com), Tim McCarver, during Saturday's Fox broadcast, relayed a conversation he had with Theo Epstein prior to the game in which Epstein said that if Manny Ramirez were to waive his no-trade, they would look to trade him.  Wow.

Somehow I missed this yesterday, but regardless, it is big news.  First off, it is significant in that this is the most forthcoming a Red Sox official has ever been, on the record, about player personal moves.  Secondly, it means the Red Sox would like him off the team...a big hole to fill.

ESPN Deportes interviewed Manny Sunday and Manny said he'd ok a trade.  He was quoted as saying "I don't want to be a problem and a distraction to the Red Sox in such a critical moment of the season. I want to help the team, even if that means I have to go."

In the interview, he did much to stress that his knee injury was legit and to let us all know he is a professional and would never play games.  Sure, I believe all he says.

No matter what else he said, Manny just called the Red Sox bluff (either intentionally or not) and they can now work a trade for him.  The question is does Boston get enough in return to fill the hole that Manny would create.  It doesn't seem likely they can get enough pop in return, unless they trade Manny for a bunch of prospects and then go and send a bunch of prospects to Atlanta and get Mark Teixeira (get ready for some OF play for Kevin Youkilis if that happens).

This isn't an ideal situation.  The ideal would be if Manny would just play baseball and shut up.  I guess that's asking for too much.

Let the rumors begin (Manny to Philly was one that cropped up buy the Phillies quickly denied it).

As for tonight's game, the NOAA.GOV radar doesn't look good, but the system is quick moving and should be out of the way in time to play some baseball with just perhaps a rain-delay to start things off.

Ponson Tonight

The Yankees may still trade for Washburn, but he is currently pitching for Seattle in the third inning.  Lester versus Ponson is not a matchup that looks very good for the Yankees so it may be a long night, but you never know.


July 26, 2008

Dead Heat

The Yankees went into the All-Star Break 5.5 games out of the wild card and with three teams above them in those standings.  The standings still show them a game back, but they are even in the loss column.  They have jumped ahead of Oakland and Minnesota and at worst they will only be three games behind Tampa for the division lead tomorrow morning.  In addition, they have made a trade that will improve their chances in 2008. 

I think the Red Sox have the easiest path to the playoffs of the three AL East teams (more home games/weaker opponents) but this is going to be a horse race.  For a team that lost 60% of its rotation and probably has lost 2/9th's of its lineup, that's a great position to be in.  This will be a fun race to the finish. 

#34?

Marte is wearing #34 which was Phil Hughes' number the last time we saw him.  I wonder how that happened. 

Meanwhile, game is in commercial, but I am not a fan of Ramirez vs. Ramirez.  I would have liked to see D-Rob here.   

UPDATE: Apparently, I should stick to my day job.  Nice work Edwar.

UPDATE (Monday 11pm) Here's how the number switch happened.  Hughes is going back to #65

Washburn On The Way?

Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees are close to acquiring Jarrod Washurn from the Mariners. This makes sense because the Yankees passed Igawa through waivers and took him off the 40-man roster today which gives them only 39 players on the 40-man.  It doesn't sound like they think Bruney or Kennedy is ready to help, so something else must be in the works. 

I will save my analysis for when a trade actually happens, but I hope they aren't giving up a lot to get him. 

UPDATE: Jon Heyman pointed this out, but look at the Yankees schedule and probable pitchers.  No one is listed for Sunday where Sidney Ponson was scheduled.  Washburn is scheduled to start for Seattle tomorrow...hmmmmm.  (Seattle's schedule still lists Washburn)

UPDATE 8:40pm: Ponson listed as a starter again for the Yankees tomorrow.  Sounds to me like a poker game here between Cashman and Seattle.  We will see who blinks first, but I don't think Cashman is sending Melky or Gardner to the Mariners for Washburn. 

A Change In the Trade

Ok, apparently the trade has changed and in place of Coke and Kontos are McCutchen and Karstens.  I would rather have Coke or Kontos than Karstens, higher upsides even with the problems, but McCutchen is a better addition for Pittsburgh. 

This doesn't change my opinion of the trade at all, still a very good one for the Yankees.  And, remember that Hughes and Kennedy are still Yankees.  If they live up to their potential and you have a rotation of Joba, Wang, Hughes and Kennedy plus someone in 2009, the Yankees will be just fine. 

UPDATE 3:05pm: Nady is in the lineup and Gardner has been sent down.  Hawkins has been DFA'ed as well so the news is good.  

Manny Facing Possible Suspension

Providence Journal sports writer and ESPN contributor Sean McAdam reports in today's Projo that Manny faces disciplinary action, including possible suspension, if he opts out of the line-up again today.

The kicker in all of this in the Red Sox eyes is that Manny has not sought treatment for his knee condition.

From McAdam:  "Skepticism obviously exists within the organization about the severity of Ramirez’s injury.  Ramirez did not seek treatment for the knee on Thursday, an off-day, a signal to Francona that Ramirez would be available for last night’s series opener.  Ramirez said Wednesday in Seattle that the knee had been bothering him for the last week, but he has not sought treatment from the training staff."

Say Goodbye to Boston?

Manny Ramirez did last night what he has done so many times before.  He sat while his team needed him.  Knee injury or not, the race for a playoff spot is tight and the Red Sox are obviously a better squad with Manny than without.

By declaring himself unable to play (despite two clean MRIs after the game), Manny forever likened himself to Nomar Garciaparra.  I'll confess, while watching the game last night, I didn't put this comparison together, rather it happened Saturday morning.

Remember the 2004 game in the Bronx where Derek Jeter made one of the greatest catches ever?  He was in a full sprint to snare a pop-up and his momentum carried him into the stands only to emerge bruised and bloodied?  I know you know the game.  It was also the same game where Nomar Garciaparra sat on the bench while the rest of his teammates were leaning against the dugout netting.  Garciaparra's brooding and unwillingness to be part of the team ultimately led to his being traded and perhaps changed the direction of the Red Sox franchise.

Well Friday night was Nomar all over again, except this time it was Manny.  Enough is enough.  The trade deadline is 5 days away and the Red Sox need help.  David Ortiz is back, but if Manny decides to play the role of a 3 year old, again, there is no time to wait him out.  Send him packing and try to acquire help.  The Yankees just made a good move in getting OF help and a situational lefty.  A nice pick-up for a team just 2 games back from Boston.

I am not about to propose trade ideas or what I think the Red Sox could get in return for Manny, but anything is better than a $20mm player not willing to play.

The Boston Globe's Gordon Edes said "one player (teammate) called it a disgrace and would not be surprised if the team tried to trade Ramirez."

Ramirez is probably acting like this because he wants to know if his team option will be picked up for next year.  Well, this is proof again that Ramirez is less mature than most toddlers.  He fails to realize the significance of a "team first" attitude.  What makes it all the more shameful is that Manny has already earned over $160,000,000 playing baseball and despite that, he is more concerned about his next paycheck than his next World Series opportunity.

Manny, you are a bore.  Take your act somewhere else.

Red Sox notes: As for the game itself, Friday was a frustrating night for Red Sox fans.  Too few hits (who could have helped there I wonder), a bad called third strike (part of the game) and yet another bean-ball by Joba Chamberlain aimed at Kevin Youkilis's head.  That last part is very distressing.  Per Baseball Tonight, Jason Varitek was heard wondering aloud how to deal with Chamberlain.  The conclusion was to ultimately take matters in the players hands.  In other words, I guess we can expect a plunk fest today or tomorrow.  Most likely tomorrow because Tim Wakefield just doesn't have the capacity to, well, hurt or intimidate an opposing batter.  He can humiliate them sure, but that's really all.

Get ready for some Tim McCarver today!!!

Roster Guesses

Assuming the trade goes through, how will the Yankees fit Marte and Nady on the roster?  The first move, adding the two players to the 40-man will probably be accomplished by moving Wang to the 60-day DL.  (Ohlendorf coming off the 40-man frees one spot).  But, who goes away to make room for these players on the 25-man?

To clear room for Marte, the Yankees have only one logical move, DFA LaTroy Hawkins.  One year of Hawkins was a better idea than two years of Vizcaino, but the move didn't work.  It's time to admit that and cut him loose.  The Yankees could chicken out here and send Giese down, but that would be foolish.  Giese has done his job, Hawkins hasn't, the choice is clear.

On the batting side, it comes down to one of two candidates Christian or Gardner.  At first glance, the Yankees would probably send Christian down, but that would be a mistake.  Gardner has a much higher upside, but he needs to go back to AAA and play every day.  Plus, Christian gives the Yankees an option against LHP if they wise up and sit Melky against portsiders. (a very good idea)  Platooning Christian and Melky would improve the centerfield picture and Christian gives the Yankees the same speed quotient Gardner does.  On days when you play a lefty you could do something like this:

LF-Damon

SS- Jeter

3B- A-Rod

DH- Giambi

RF- Nady

2B-Cano 

1B- Sexson

CF-Christian

C-Molina

Should be interesting to watch, probably won't happen until Sunday though.   

July 25, 2008

Analysis

So the deal will be Nady and Marte for Tabata, Ohlendorf, Kontos and Coke.  Let's look at what the Yankees gave up first.

 

Clearly the biggest name the Yankees gave up is Tabata and prior to this season you wouldn't have wanted him included in this trade.  But, the storm clouds that led Baseball America to report this winter that, "scouts outside the organization chide him for failing to give a consistent effort," really showed up in 2008.  On the field, he has been bad- putting up an awful line of .248/.319/.310.  Off the field he has been suspended for lack of effort and almost quit the team at one point.  The potential is still there and he is just about to turn 20, so don't count him out, but his stock has really diminished.  Once he was targeted as the heir to Abreu in right for 2009.  Now, 2010 might be an aggressive projection for him to reach the majors and the power that scouts say will be there still hasn't shown up.  The Pirates may get a star, they may get a bust.

Ohlendorf has always been projected as a back of the rotation guy or a setup guy.  He washed out of the bigs this year, but he has pitched well back at Scranton.  The thing is, would you rather have Ohlendorf or David Robertson?  I would take Robertson, so I don't think the loss of Ohlendorf is that big a deal.  

Kontos and Coke are an interesting duo.  Coke has been dominant at AA this year, striking out 109 in 114 innings.   Plus he is a lefty, which is always a big plus.  But, Coke is also 26, a little old for AA.  He looks like he has a great future, but the age is a red flag.

Kontos doesn't have the age concerns and he has numbers almost as good as Coke's, but Kontos has his own red flags.  He was arrested last year for failing to leave a bar at closing time and BA describes him as having a history of "not living up to expectations".  He profiles as a #3 starter and if he can overcome his off-field propblems, he should get to the bigs 2010.  

In return for those four, the Yankees have solved two problems in the present and possibly a couple for the future.  

Marte gives them a lefty for the pen which is a plus, but he is more than a situational lefty, he can setup as well.  He returns to the Yankees seven years after they traded him for Enrique Wilson.  He has a $6-million option for next year which means the Yankees could exercise that or let him go and probably receive compensation in the draft.  

Nady is presumably going to play left on most days though he is a rightfielder.  He is a good righty bat, but probably not as good as his 142 OPS+ this year.  He terrorizes lefty pitching which is a huge need for the Yankees and since he is under their control until after 2009, his arrival almost certainly marks the end of Bobby Abreu's tenure as a Yankee.  One of the best things about Nady is that he has played in New York, with the Mets in 2006, and he put up a .267/.326/.487 line there, so he can handle New York.  

This is the type of deal the Yankees needed to make.  Brett Gardner has an interesting future but he isn't ready to handle the majors right now.  Farnsworth is showing you right now why the Yankees need more bullpen help.  The prospects are solid, but not spectacular.  Tip your cap to Brian Cashman, he just made a good trade.   

Trade??

Check this report out, no confirmation yet, but stay tuned.

 
UPDATE 8:02pm: Jon Heyman confirming the trade with Ohlendorf and Tabata headlining a deal with four prospects.  Sounds like Phil Coke might be one of them as well.  

UPDATE 8:12pm: Coke is part of the trade according to Heyman.  Rotoworld reporting that Ausitn Jackson (NOOOOOOO!) part of the deal

UPDATE 8:17pm: Rosenthal reporting the deal as Ohlendorf, Kontos, Tabata and Coke.  I could live with that. 

UPDATE 8:23pm: Peter Abraham reporting same deal as Rosenthal.  So, the Yankees just got a power right-handed bat and a very good lefty reliever without trading Jackson or Melancon.  That is a great deal in my mind.  More analysis after the game.  

July 24, 2008

Give Peace A Chance

Kudos to Kevin Cullen for putting this into print, in the Boston Globe no less.  But, before any Yankees' fans share a smug smile, the same could be said to some of you.  Chants like "Boston Sucks" and others that I won't put into writing because they are not family firendly are all too prevalent at Yankees' games when Boston visits.  Unfortunately, it seems like the chants are just the start of the problems.

Twice in the past few months I have read about horrible incidents where Yankees and Red Sox fans crossed the line.  In the first, a Yankees' fan saw fit to run over some Red Sox fans because they were tautning her.  Recently, a Red Sox fan took exception to a car with New York plates and beat up a man in front of his family (I am not sure he even was a Yankees' fan in this case.)  

I have seen the bad behavior on both sides.  One of the few times I have ever been worried about my own safety was in 1999 during Game 4 of the ALCS when the centerfield bleachers at Fenway became so unruly that I saw a policeman start to unholster his gun.   A few years ago I got into it with a Yankees' fan at the Stadium after asking him to stop using four-letter words to describe the Red Sox and their fans because there were kids around.  In his mind my request made me a Boston fan. Both teams have a lot of great things about them, but too often their fans mistake hatred and boorish behavior as "supporting the team".  

When we started this website almost five years ago we hoped to show that Yankees and Red Sox fans could engage in baseball debates intelligently and without name calling.  By in large, I think we have done that and I hope we continue to do so.  It doesn't mean either Andy or I root any less actively for our respective teams.  We speak often normally, but not during Yankees-Red Sox series.  Sometime tomorrow the wall will go up and we won't speak for the weekend.  But, sure as the sunrise, one of us will call the other Monday and while the topic may not move to Yankees-Red Sox immediately, it will get there.  That's what this great game is all about and I hope anyone out there reading this will pause a second before hurling verbal abuse (or worse) at a fan from the other side.  Boo the other team all you want, just leave it at that.

Thanks again for reading,

 

Peter 

 

July 23, 2008

Butt Out, Randy

If you read Peter Abraham's blog today you will learn that Jorge Posada needs surgery but is delaying it in part because of Randy Levine.  Levine feels that Posada should wait and try and rehab, eventhough he needs six months to recover and he could not come back and catch anyway.

So, Levine is willing to risk Posada's availability in 2009 in order to see if he can return in 2008?  This is a stupid bet because even if he returns he will still have the shoulder problem and the evidence leads you to believe the injury is affecting his hitting.  Over the last 28 days, Posada has a .570 OPS.  What is the point of risking any additional injury and delaying Posada's return in 2009 for that?  

The Yankees need to just suck it up here and let Jorge get surgery.  He can then return in 2009 and hopefully be ready to go.  In reality, this may be the start of Posada's transfer to first/DH.  The Yankees would be smart to open 2009 with another option at catcher.   

July 22, 2008

An Answer To The Comments

To those of you think I am advocating giving up the season because of Posada, I am not.  My point was the Yankees need to be buyers if they want to stay in the race or sellers if they do not.  The worst possible move right now would be to do nothing and see what happens. 

Yes, Molina plays incredible defense, but that defense has translated into 26 caught stealings this year while his bat makes around that many outs every week he starts.  In past years the Yankees could have covered this better with everyone at peak offense, but consider where we are this year.

Four players are having good offensive seasons: A-Rod, Giambi, Matui and Damon.  It seems almost certain that Matsui is lost for the year.

Three players are having average seasons: Abreu, Posada and Jeter.  It seems almost certain we have lost Posada for the year.

Two players are having really bad seasons: Cano and Cabrera.

I will grant you that Cano looks like he is rebounding, but Cabrera has hit .247/.306/.350 this year and his numbers have gotten worse each year of his career so I am not expecting a second half surge.

Now take one of the above average hitters and one of the average hitters and replace them in the lineup with say Gardner and Molina.  You know what I think of Molina's bat and Gardner's is even worse (though he has the potential to improve).  That's a lot of holes in the offense

Now look at the rotation a minute.   We could argue about Mussina, but let's not I will assume for the sake of brevity that he keeps it up.  Does anyone feel that Ponson will?  I would say you have two below-average starters in Ponson and Rasner and while the Yankees may get Wang or Hughes back, it won't be until the end of August at the earliest.

What the Yankees have developed this year is a fantastic bullpen.  There is a reason they are 19-11 in one-run games and it starts with Rivera, but goes far beyond that.  Veras, Ramirez, Robinson and yes, even Farnsworth have been very good.  The bullpen is going to get better with Bruney returning soon and the release (say it with me Cashman) of LaTroy Hawkins.  

Considering everything, the pluses and minuses, I think the Yankees can definitely make a run at this, but they need some help.  More offense from catcher or CF would be a plus, but so would another starter.  There are a number of directions Cashman can go and my point is he has to pick one.  If he trades some of his prospects and get a player who can help the 2008 Yankees I am fine with that.  Let's go for it!

Or, he could pack it in and trade some of the 2008 guys for players who can help in 2009 and beyond.  I am not as excited about that, but I would accept it.

What I will not accept and what I hope I have explained better is that standing pat is the wrong move.  Make a move to stay in it, make a move and get out of it, don't just sit there.  There are costs and benefits to either side, but I believe the costs of innaction are the highest.   

July 21, 2008

Driving Home A Point

Accuse me of overkill, I will readily admit it, but watching Molina's first AB tonight reminded me of his #'s so far this year.  Sixty games of Molina's current rates (.215/.255/.297) will absolutely kill the team. 

The Yankees have a choice here.  They can get a backup catcher who won't kill them at the plate every time up.  Or, they can choose to do nothing.  If they do nothing with the catcher situation then I hope they admit defeat in 2008 and try and trade some of their veterans for prospects.  Would there be any shame in Brian Cashman standing before the microphones on July 31st as he announced the departures of Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Farnsworth and admitting that the injuries were too much to overcome this season?  Some will snicker that a team with that big a payroll couldn't win, but the Yankees can't worry about that.  If they are not going to put everything into 2008 (and I am not sure they should) then they need to go after 2009.

Think about 2009 for a second.  We know that Joba and Wang will headline the rotation.  We know Mariano will be back with Robertson, Veras and Ramirez in support roles.  What we don't know is what will happen to the offense.  If the Yankees can build up the offense for next year at the trade deadline, it isn't a bad idea. 

But, I hope they go for it.  I hope Brian Cashman uses some of the pitching prospects to get some hitting prospects.  Either choice could be a good one, what isn't going to fly is doing nothing in ten days.   

There Go The Playoffs?

The news is not good, Jorge Posada is headed back to the DL.  As shaky as the offense has been, this will really damage it.  It sounds like the best case scenario is for Posada to return in August, but not be able to catch often if at all.  The worst is that they operate now and he is lost for the season.

This means Brian Cashman has to trade for a catcher if he wants to keep his team in the hunt.  The Yankees have ignored the backup catching position for years because of Posada's toughness.  Now it is time to correct that.  Even if Jorge comes back 100% healthy next year, they need to have a better backup plan than Molina.  The reality is that Posada will probably begin the shift to first as a result of this injury and the Yankees have to find someone who can catch and hit- at least a little bit- to take his place.   

July 19, 2008

Do We Have to Wait?

David Ortiz has homered in his 2nd consecutive rehab game for Pawtucket.  Given the Red Sox announced Ortiz would return July 25th against the Yankees, Ortiz stands to get plenty of at bats before facing major league pitching.

Seriously, do we have to wait another week to get Ortiz back?  7 more calendar days?  I like Sean Casey and all (although he could stand to do a sit-up now and again and perhaps say no to the buffet), but Ortiz is in another category and is needed in Boston, not Pawtucket.

The long-ball is not necessarily an endangered species for the Red Sox, but more of it can't hurt.  Theo Epstein, maybe you can fly Ortiz out for the the start of next Monday's series in Seattle?  Watching John "I can land airplanes in my open mouth" Lackey keep pace with the Red Sox Friday night makes me think Ortiz should be helping Boston sooner than July 25th.

 

July 17, 2008

Thanks, Brian

Reports are that the Yankees have signed Richie Sexson and that is allright by me.  The move cost the Yankees the sum of $161,000.  Nice $$ if you can get it, tip money for a club like the Yankees- about what they pay A-Rod for one game.   On the heels of the news that Matsui might be done for the year, it makes even more sense. 

As happy as I am about the move, I am worried about the other shoe that is going to drop.  Who is getting sent down?  I hope it is Traber, but I fear it might be a bat.  Carrying Sexson with 13 pitchers and 3 catchers is stupid, I can only hope the Yankees realize that.   

2nd Half (or last 2/5)

The Red Sox have played 97 games.  That leaves 65 to go, only 65!

Let's make this simple.  Good, Ok and Bad for the regulars and the pitching staff.

Offense

Good;  J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell

OK: Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz

Bad:  Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp

Varitek has been fine defensively, but his offense is a concern.  He is 3-11 which isn't spectacular but a sign of progress.  Of course me being happy with 3-11 tells you how bad he has been.

Lugo just needs to...retire.  Too much money for the errors and the lack of any offense (1 HR, 27 runs, 22 RBI in 82 games).

Pitching (current roster):

Good:  Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, Javier Lopez, David Aardsma

OK:  Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen

Bad:  Mike Timlin, Clay Buchholz, Craig Hansen

The rotation has been great.  Where we are seeing issues is the middle relief.  Lopez and Aardsma (despite Aardsma's wildness) have been good.  Where the Red Sox are struggling is the 8th inning.  Manny Delcarmen has been inconsistent as has Okajima.  In fairness to Okajima, there is no way to fairly expect a repeat of 2007, but his inability to prevent inherited runners from scoring has been tough.

Pinning it down, the Red Sox need to improve their middle relief.  Be it improvements by the current personnel or a trade.  With David Ortiz due back next Friday, the offense should be OK.  Pretty simple.

Rumors:  Mark Teixeira for Kevin Youkilis and Craig Hansen.  Help me understand this.  Youkilis has a higher average, obp and slg.  In 88 games, Youkilis has 56 runs, 15 HRs and 63 RBI.  In 93 games, Teixeira has 54 runs, 17 HR and 69 RBI.  So in more games, Teixeira has slightly more production, but Youkilis leads the other categories.  He also leads in the the money category getting paid about 1/5 what Teixeira makes.

Why make this move?  No reason.  You don't make this move.

Expect more of these silly rumors to pop up.

July 14, 2008

Let's Focus On The Right Things

I will be the first to say that there are a lot of reasons to criticize A-Rod.  But, criticizing his decision to skip the Home Run Derby is a really stupid one.  Why doesn't the national media focus on baseball's terrible job with tickets for this event and other All-Star festivities?  As of last night tickets for the Home Run Derby in Section 601 (upper deck) were being sold by MLB, not scalpers, for the low, low price of $300 each!  How about the much-ballyhooed "Fan Fest" going on right now at the Javits Center.  Well, that's a relative bargain at $30 a pop for adults with children ages 2-12 getting a huge discount and only paying $25. 

 

Look, I know that things like World Series Games ending before midnight and players actually caring about the All-Star Game the way they used to are a thing of the past.  But, is it too much to ask for baseball to stop gouging every last cent from the fans?  If the national media wants to criticize someone, why not take a shot at the executives who are pricing the game out of reach for most fans?  Would it have killed baseball to cut the costs on the Fan Fest and maybe even allowed kids under 12 to go for free?  Of course not, but you won't read about it in the national media.  They need baseball to fill a lot of summer programming hours.  So, I guess A-Rod gets to be the lucky target.  Maybe we should just criticize him for being one of the few people who could afford these prices?

July 12, 2008

A Sad Day

If you haven't heard, Bobby Murcer lost his fight with cancer today at the age of 62.  Murcer was a real joy to watch on the field and a treat in the broadcast booth, he will be sorely missed by Yankees' fans.

I bet he is up in Heaven right now sharing a beer with Thurman Munson- RIP Bobby. 

July 11, 2008

10 Years Later....

It was just over ten years ago that the Yankees traded their top pitching prospect to Minnesota as part of a package to get Chuck Knoblauch.  Eric Milton was highly-rated at the time and though he had some good years, he never turned into what scouts thought he could turn into.  Why the walk down memory lane?  Well the Yankees just signed Milton to a minor league deal. 

I am not sure that Milton can help the 2008 Yankees, he is recovering from TJ surgery, but his history is a good one for the Yankees to review at this point.  As Sickels says in the article above, he would have given him an initial grade of "B" and then upgraded it to "B+" before the '98 season "comparing him to Andy Pettitte".  Take a look at Sickels 2008 rankings.  Hughes wasn't a prospect anymore on his scale, so he didn't make it, but all the other names you know are there.  Notice that only three names rated higher than a "B".  Notice that one of those names absolutely flopped in 2008 (so far).  I am not saying go back to the old days of trading every young player in the system, but the Yankees need to be aggressive with their pitching assets and take some risks.  Trade some of these guys, the one thing you can bank on is a lot of them won't turn out to be stars. 

Further Proof

Check out this quote from Joe Girardi.  He was responding to questions about why Jorge Posada hasn't been catching lately. 

"I will look at match ups and when you want to get two right-handed bats in the lineup you aren't going to DH Molina."

So, the plan against LHP is to get Molina in there because he is a righty?  Surely Joe has noticed that Molina is hitting .192 against LHP and .226/.263/.311 overall.  Pretty much anyone would be a better choice than Molina and seeing how the Yankees have scored two runs or less in 31 games this season, the offense needs help.  Molina can throw out all the runners in the world, but his bat is part of the overall problem. 

If the manager is going to insist on running Molina out there everyday, it is the GM's job to stop him.  Get Sexson signed, or make a trade.  (Matt Holliday is reportely available and he could cure a multiude of offensive sins)  The pitching has surprisingly turned out ok even with the injuries, the offense needs  help and fast. 

July 10, 2008

Sign Sexson

The Seattle Mariners released Richie Sexson today and I think the Yankees should sign him.  Now, before I state my case, let me get a few things out of the way.  Yes, Sexson is a strikeout machine, whiffing all the time.  Yes, he would probably lose a footrace to Jason Giambi by a lot and yes, the Yankees have plenty of old "unathletic" types already.  So, why make this move?  Simple, the guy still hits lefties and hits them well. 

Lost in his pathetic .218/.315/.381 season are 61 AB's against LHP where he had compiled #'s of .344/.423/.623.  You may have noticed that the Yankees have a tough time with lefties and with Damon and Matsui hurt, there is playing time available.  Best of all, the Mariners are on the hook for his salary, so you can pick him up for the major league minimum.  Wilson Betemit can't hit lefties, either can Melky.  Molina can't hit, Shelley Duncan is hurt and out for the forseeable future.  The Yankees are carrying 13 pitchers, so making room shouldn't be hard.  You could then do something like this the next time you face a lefty:

Jeter-SS

Abreu-RF

A-Rod-3B

Posada-C

Giambi-1B

Sexson-DH 

Cano-2B

Gardner-LF

Chrisitan-CF

I know it doesn't look like a lot, but it is probably your best lineup against LHP.  Sign Sexson and give him a shot.  When Damon and Matsui come back you can always cut him.  Despite my predictions of doom, Ponson has done better than expected, so why not try it with Sexson? 

 

July 08, 2008

Keeping Up

MLB has seen some boffo trades the past few days.  Milwaukee got C.C. Sabathia and the Chicago Cubs got Rich Harden.

These acquisitions got me to thinking, do the Red Sox currently have enough to A.) make the playoffs (don't laugh, they are 3 behind the Rays and only 2.5 ahead of the Twins for the wild card) and B.) do they have enough to win the World Series?

One thing is certain, David Ortiz makes an enormous impact on the Red Sox offense.  Without Ortiz, the threat of the "Big Inning" is greatly diminished.  The Red Sox without Ortiz can hit, no doubt, but they rely more on stringing together several hits.  Manny Ramirez hitting a 2-run shot Tuesday night to tie the game was the first time in a bit that the Red Sox just out-slugged another team.  But without that constant power threat from either Manny or Ortiz (or both) the Red Sox are not the same team.

Do the Red Sox need to trade for some offense?  If Ortiz is healthy, and all accounts suggest he is, they are probably ok, although ESPN's Peter Gammons suggests he is probably still 2 weeks away.  If Ortiz can remain symptom-free, they should be good to go.  The "how can we tweak the offense" would then revolve around Julio Lugo and Jason Varitek.

To me, Varitek will be catcher for this team in 2008 no matter his offensive production, but Lugo is another story.  To all you little league pitchers, Lugo swings for the slider low and away 10 times out of 10.  That being said, Lugo is bad defensively and offensively.  In only year 2 of his 4 year deal, the Red Sox are likely to stick with him, but with Jed Lowrie waiting in the wings, a change is in order.  If Ramirez and Ortiz hit to their potential, the Red Sox (and any big-market team) can afford a mulligan like Lugo, but it isn't good baseball management.

Justin Masterson to the pen.  Well, the Red Sox have decided that rather than trade for bullpen help, they are going to create bullpen help.  Masterson pitched very well as a starter and did nothing to embarrass himself.  He shutdown righties, but struggled against lefties.  If he is ok with the short inning role, then great.  If Javier Lopez can be the lefty specialist, Masterson can be the righty specialist.

What do you think the Red Sox need?  Getting back to my initial question, are the Red Sox, as constituted, good enough to win the World Series?  If you were GM, would you realistically upgrade a position or two or even make a major trade like Milwaukee and Chicago?  July 31st is the non-waiver trade deadline and between now and then, we will learn a whole bunch more about which players will be fighting for the Red Sox in defending their World Series Championship.

July 07, 2008

This Roster Is Dumb

I keep reading about how the Yankees want to become younger and more athletic with the author frequently pointing to the Rays as an example.  And, with the Rays nine-games ahead of the Yankees, New York would do well to imitate some parts of Tampa's construction.  Unless the Yankees figure out a way to clone Longoria and Shields or bring back Navarro (that RJ trade looks better and better) the best thing they could do is to copy Tampa and only carry 11 pitchers.

Consider the current state of the Yankees' roster.  Not only do you have 13 pitchers, leaving 12 hitters, but three of those hitters are catchers.  That means your bench is Molina, Moeller and if Betemit DH's, Christian.  That isn't a major league bench by any stretch of the imagination.  

The Yankees need to make some decisions here.  Three catchers is a luxury that went out when teams started to carry 11 pitchers, with 13 it is impossible to execute.  The bullpen seems to have clear roles.  Rivera closes with Farnsworth and Veras setting him up.  Robertson is settling in with Hawkins and Ramirez mostly mopping up.  Billy Traber makes 13 as the Yankees continue their quest for a lefty in the pen.  Cut Hawkins, demote Traber, let Robertson take some bigger innings, just don't keep carrying 13 pitchers. You can add Gonzalez for now and then bring back Damon (or Matsui) when healthy.  The point is, don't keep wasting the spots you have, no matter the reasons. 

 


July 03, 2008

Flop

No other way to describe the Red Sox Wednesday night and for the entire series in Tampa Bay.  Flop.

Using Billy Beane's mantra of spending the first 1/3 of the season evaluating, the second 1/3 trying to acquire the necessary fixes and the third 1/3 making your postseason run, well, I think we know what the necessary fix should be.

Upgrade to the bullpen.

Last night's bullpen collapse alone was enough to convince me of that.

2007 vs 2008 ERAs

1.85/2.00 - Papelbon

2.22/3.06 - Okajima

2.05/4.72 - Delcarmen

3.42/7.06 - Timlin

3.10/2.20 - Lopez

3.10/4.09 - Entire Bullpen

There you have it, a decrease in productivity for the bullpen.  Here's my plan to fix this:  Go get Eric Gagne.  Wait, wrong answer.  Is Calvin Schiraldi still pitching?

Look I don't know who to acquire, but it is clear what we are seeing of Hideki Okajima is more along the lines of what he is capable of.  Papelbon isn't quite the shutdown closer he was in 2007, although he is still good.  And Timlin, well, you know my thoughts on Mike.

Relievers are a tough bunch to gauge as they can go from being good to bad in a split second.  Gagne was a very good example of that.  He changed on a dime.

We are well into the middle 1/3 of the season and I think we can safely say the Red Sox bullpen needs fixing, so get busy Theo Epstein.

4 in the Bronx starting tonight.  If the Red Sox want to win one game this long-weekend, let alone win the series, both Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek need to figure out how to make contact with a fastball (or any pitch).  Manny swung through average fastball after average fastball Wednesday and the whole TB series while Varitek is just lost.  Which makes me wonder why Terry Francona ordered a hit and run in the 9th Wednesday night if A.)  JV isn't making contact with air right now and B.)  Mike Lowell is very slow.  Help me understand that one Terry.

Not to continue on Terry's case, but why did he leave Craig Hansen in there so long?  Hansen could not throw a strike and his fastball was at 91mph.  Brutal decision making by Terry Wednesday night.  I understand when nothing seems to be working, one might be hesitant to make too many changes, but the writing was on the wall with some of his decisions.  Terry is a good manager, but he had a bad night Wednesday.

Tabula Rasa boys.  Get to Yankee Stadium and start playing baseball again.