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if you have money and don't spend it what do you have?

both teams should and likely will go after him.

While Peter has cronicled the only reason the Yankees would be timid, I think with Hal in the mix they will continue down the dark path towards the 80's revisited and win the bidding war on this type of player most of the time.

Making up for lost time (Santana) the Yankees will be in the running. The Sox will because, all things considered (with over $100M spent) the Dice-K transaction was a good one for the Sox.

Here's my question back to you, how do you spend that kind of money on a 21-year old from Japan and then renew your young pitchers for the MLB minimum or near it? What does it say to a Joba Chamberlain or a Clay Buchholz when you do that?

Plus, I find the idea of spending the kind of money you mentioned the definition of insanity unless you get a true ace. I would say year one of Matsuzaka's career was not up to expectations and while year two has been, it is only 8 starts. This guy was hyped as the second coming of Sandy Koufax and hasn't lived up to that yet, why would a 21-year old?

Peter, I would say you were right if you were the Yankees because they are terrible when it comes to picking up Japanese pitchers. At least with the Red Sox they have Okajima and Daisuke to show for their investments. Both were very instrumental to winning last year and are showing good improvements in their 2nd years. I trust our asian scouts better than I would trust Cahsman's.

Peter, you are right about Matsuzaka's career. It is too early to judge, but that's why I said so far so good. I give any player some slack when moving to the AL and especially the AL East. Year 2 they should show me more.

As for insanity, it is a ton of momey, but he has 3 seasons of Japanese League baseball to judge. Clay and Joba don't have 150 IP between them at the Majors. If you have a formula for Japanese League pitchers and how they will perform in MLB, then you will make some dough.

Yu dominated in 2007 like other Japanese Leaguers have. The key here becomes does that translate for him to MLB baseball.

If Yu is allowed to post, I think the Yankees are the odds-on favorites to win. I wouldn't be surprised to see $75mm or more for the post. The good news is that for the player, the contract isn't nearly as rich as the posting reward, so the MLB team that wins can at least be happy with the contact itself (hollow victory I know).

Blmeanie is right, Hal (or is it Hank) will make sure they win that battle or go down swinging.

But Mike is also right. The Red Sox have had good luck overall while the Yankees are probably a bit gunshy. Kei Igawa and Hideki Irabu (was he a post?) are somewhat fresh in Yankee management's minds.

The problem Peter is that the money is insane, even if it were an ace.

I hadn't put it in the Joba or Buchholz perspective, that is an interesting take.

I would guess, as most fans do, they would also attribute the posting fee back to the player in comparisons too, which isn't fair.

The one side of it is that only the top of the top from Japan are getting this treatment so far. So the odds are better that you will get someone that will be good and be good for a while.

In the end, it is the economics of baseball currently. There can't be rationale started for this when it is equally insane to pay players $15-$20M per season no matter where they come from.

Mike

You are right to an extent about the Yankees' scouts, but don't forget that the Yankees bid on Matsuzaka, just not enough. Igawa has been a disaster no question, but Chien-Ming Wang seems like a pretty good find out of Asia.

I imagine the Yankees will be very aggressive in bidding on this guy and plenty else this upcoming offseason simply because they will have a virtual ATM in the new ballpark coming online and about $70 million coming off the payroll.

Hideki Matsui has done okay as well.

Yeah, but $75 million? Just for the right to talk? I realize that these teams navigate in substantially deeper financial waters than I do, but $75 million? There has got to be a point where everyone can agree that we've crossed the threshold to insanity.

Question: Assume when the kid becomes available that you know he's a Sandy Koufax clone, circa 1961 (except this kid is not a southpaw), i.e., you know that he is on the cusp of one of the greatest (if not the greatest) five-year runs any pitcher has ever had (and then his arm falls off). How much do you pay just for the privilege of talking to him, with the goal of locking him up for 5 years? $75 million? $150 million? $500 million? When do the numbers no longer make sense, regardless of the player? How much is too much, even for Sandy Koufax?

And then, after recalibrating your assumptions to take into account the fact that you don't know how well the kid will do once you sign him, nor how healthy he'll be, how much do you lower your ceiling to account for these uncertainties? And then you've got to spend more to sign him. He's not going to sign for chump change. That's a lot of money to risk, even for the Yankees.

I'm actually beginning to pity the Japanese baseball fans. They're going to be left with a second-class product at home.

Greg,

I think the Matsuzaka signing proved that the MLB teams controls the reigns. If they cannot work out a deal, the player has to go back to Japan and face all those he tried to turn his back against and his team loses our on the posting fee. So there is a tone of pressure to get something done.

All that said, you are right, when does it become insane? Teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets (Peter is right about the virtual ATM in 2009 for the Yankees), can afford to have a disaster signing now and again while teams like KC and Pitt cannot. Me trying to say that the Matsuzaka deal has been good is probably absurd I admit given the risk they took. But it was calculated and hasn't been bad...yet.

One key issue in this debate is I was trying to evaluate the posting process from Japan only, not Japanese players that came over after they were elig. for their version of free agency or players from other countries.

It's important to understand that teams interested in Matsuzaka/Darvish are considering much more than how well they will pitch in the MLB. What they are really thinking about, is the effect it will have on the Japanese baseball market as a whole. The jersey sales/tv revenues have unbelievable potential with Japanese players regardless. If anybody remembers a slouch of a CF named Tyoshi Shinjo (mispelled) on the SF Giants, he was often a backup and never played well- or for long. He did, however, lead the team in jersey sales by a large margin. And due to SF's large asian-american population, his jersey sold a ton domestically, as well as internationally. Furthermore, they are considering not just the talent of the aforementioned player, but the NEXT big player from Japan. Establishing themselves in the Japanese market will help these teams land future talents from Japan. It will be interesting to see how Boston's acquisition of Dice-K will help the team's chances of landing Yu.

Benjamin, first off, thanks for your post, not sure I've seen you here before. Welcome.

You bring up a big point, but I think we uncovered, during the Matsuzaka, courting, that sales of jerseys and even tv revenue is shared equally by all teams. The only exception is team stuff sold in the home park. In other words, the Red Sox keep all revenue from Matsuzaka jerseys sold at Fenway Park, but for all internet sales and sales everywhere other than Fenway, all MLB teams share in that sale equally.

Same with TV.

But where they do make inroads is in popularity with both Japanese fans and players. Perhaps the success of Matsuzaka in Boston will create appeal for other Japanese superstars (Darvish) to want to come to Boston.