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May 31, 2008

Relief (Long) On The Way

Joe Girardi announced before the game that the Yankees will recall a long reliever before Tuesday's game.  That makes a lot of sense (it has for awhile now) especially because, as Greg pointed out in the comments of a different post, you really don't know what to expect with Joba throwing 65 or so pitches.  Will that equate to five innings or three?  I don't think anyone really knows the answer and therefore you had better be ready to provide six innings of relief.

The question is, who gets the call?  Jeff Karstens is pitching in AAA tonight which would seem to eliminate him, but if he is removed from his start early that would be a big sign.  Other than Karstens, the next logical guy would be (gulp) probably Igawa.  I don't think the Yankees will add someone to the 40-man roster to make this move and since Chase Wright is in AA right now, there aren't many other choices.  They could surprise us with Steven White, but I would guess Igawa gets the nod based on the investment they have made in him.  

 

 

Here's My Question

Ok, close your eyes.  Actually, don't do that because you won't be able to read what I am writing, but just pretend for a minute.  Imagine it is March and I tell you the following things about the Yankees season 1/3 of the way through.

1- Mike Mussina leads the pitching staff in wins

2- Jason Giambi leads the offense in home runs

3- Jorge Posada has played in 18 games

4- Robinson Cano is hitting .219

5- HUghes and Kennedy (who are both injured) have combined for 14 starts and 0 wins with an ERA over 8.

Be honest, if I told you all of that in March, what would you think the team's record would be right now?  I probably would have guessed they were ten-games under .500 in that scenario and therefore, I take 27-27 as a good sign.  Sure, they have played flat, made mistakes, had horrible stretches of hitting and pitching, but they are .500 and right in the thick of things.  As an added bonus, teams like Cleveland and Detroit have struggled badly meaning the path to the wild card (not that I am thinking about that right now) is more open than in year's past.

The question of course is where do they go from here?  Rasner has stepped in to fill one of the rotation holes and now we will see if Joba can do the same.  Posada could be back on Tuesday and the offense looks a lot better since A-Rod returned.  The bullpen is going to be a problem if Girardi keeps trying to force Farnsworth into the 8th innning, but Ramirez has looked great and there are options in the minors that could be called up soon.  

Call me an optimist, but 27-27 considering everything is ok by me- 108 games to go. 

May 30, 2008

Tuesday For Joba

It's official, Joba is pitching Tuesday in the rotation and will be in it for the remainder of the year.  Per ESPN, Joba will be limited to 65-70 pitches in his start and Peter Abraham adds that Joba will be increased to 75-80 from there and then 85-90.  I haven't found anything on it, but I can't imagine he will be allowed to go very far beyond 100 in the immediate future.

The question is, how will they keep him under 140 innings?  Ultimately, Joba is going to be a six-inning pitcher.  If you figure 20 starts left in the season and the fact that he is right around 24 innings, he has 116 to go or around 5-2/3rs a start.  That could put some strain on the pen, but the Yankees have to get Joba up to 140 this season because 2009's rotation could be severly challenged innings-wise.

Figure Hughes will not throw more than the 110 he pitched last year and Kennedy probably will be lucky to get to 160 this year.  With Mussina gone and Pettitte probably gone, the Yankees will have some rotation problems heading into 2009 if they are going to rely on the kids.  But, that is a worry for another day, for now we can just focus on Joba starting Tuesday.  It should be fun to watch. 

May 28, 2008

Guess Who Is Back?

I hear that the Yankees moved their AAA farm team from Columbus to Scranton to save Chris Britton gas money.  (thank you, I will be here all season)

Seriously, this guy epitomizes the "Columbus Shuttle" of yesteryear, but I still don't know why he hasn't been given an honest shake.  Depending on what Joba does/feels, he may not be around for long this time, but maybe someday the Yankees will give him a chance to show he belongs in the bigs.  Yeah right, they never will, so soak it all in again Chris, you won't be here for long.   

Wasted Spots

Ok, I know everyone wants to chuck Hawkins off the roster right now, and I can't disagree, but that is only one of the wasted sports on the Yankees' roster right now. 

Start off with Duncan and Ensberg.  When Wilson Betemit gets the call over them with a lefty on the mound, you have a problem.  Not that you can blame Girardi for trying something different last night, the two aren't hitting, but why keep them on the team?  I think you will see some moves with the two of them soon.  Jason Lane has an opt-out in his contract if he doesn't make the big leagues by Saturday and he has 10 HR's at Scranton. Also, the club just signed Ben Broussard and assigned him to Scranton.  Furthermore, the Yankees chose to send Alberto Gonzalez to the minors when they activated Betemit from the DL and I think they may change their minds and bring him back as well. 

Russ Ohlendorf mystifies me.  He has a great sinker, but he can't seem to make it work.  To be fair, the Yankees keep changing his role and that hasn't helped, but he needs to be replaced on the roster by a true long reliever.  Jeff Karstens has made two rehab starts in Scranton and he has gotten shelled, but I would expect to see him called up as soon as he straightens things out, possibly earlier if the Yankees decide to not fill Kennedy's rotation spot with Joba.  

I led this post with Hawkins and I think it is time for the Yankees to cut their losses.  He was a worthy gamble and the Yankees essentially picked up a draft pick by "swapping" him for Vizcaino.  But, whether it was "numbergate" or some other reason, he simply hasn't worked out.  The Yankees should eat the contract and get him out of here, Chris Britton would be a better choice.  I have no idea what the bullpen will look like in August, but I would guess it will be very different.  Cox and Melancon could certainly be a part of it and Bruney and Albie could be back. 

Lastly, how about bringing up Brett Gardner?  .281/.399/.443 in Scranton with 18 steals.  Melky has followed up his stellar April (.299/.370/.494) with an abysmal May (.195/.241/.268).  He's still young and keeps showing flashes, but after almost 1200 career AB's his lifetime #'s are .272/.336/.387.  It wouldn't hurt to give Gardner a try and see what he can do. 

May 25, 2008

Feel Better?

Well, that was a pretty good weekend, wasn't it?  And, it is worth comparing that last year's team was 21-29 after 50 games, 14.5 back of Boston.  Now they are 25-25 and 5-games back of TAMPA?  Ok, no disrespect to the Rays, but let's view this as 4.5 games behind the Red Sox. 

So, they are back to square one and not that far behind Boston, that has to be an equal or a better situation than last year, right?  Well, that answer is not so easy to determine.  On the morning of May 30, 2007, the Yankees had scored 258 runs, allowed 239 and had guys like Chase Wright and Tyler Clippard as part of their rotation.  As of now the Yankees have scored 222 runs while allowing 223 with guys like Morgan Ensberg and Jose Molina as part fo their regular lineup for a significant part of the season.  I think most of us would assume that the lineup will perform better, especially with the return of A-Rod and the upcoming return of Posada, but what do you make of the pitching? 

It is only 16-runs better than last year and when you think about the guys the Yankees were using then, that isn't encouraging.  But, if you are an optimist, you will assume that Hughes and Kennedy have to pitch better (right?) and Joba, who was merely a name this time last year, will stabilize the starting rotation. 

Maybe we should just be happy that instead of a 36-15 start in 2007, the Red Sox have "only" come out of the gate at 31-22.  I suspect there is better baseball to be played in Boston, but I also think that holds true in the Bronx.  After 50 games, it's an early, but not insurmountable lead for Boston, and that is a nice change from 2007.   

May 22, 2008

Who Were Those Guys?

Hold on a sec, was that Ian Kennedy looking like he belongs here?  Was that Joe Girardi acting like Billy Martin?  Was that Robinson Cano with a game-winning hit? 

That win may or may not mean a thing when we look back on this season, but it is the type of win that could really spark a team.   

The Shift Begins

If you were wondering why Joba pitched two innnings in a blowout, the Yankees announced after the game that it was because he is starting the transition to a starting pitcher.  Smartly, the Yankees are going to do this in the majors and not waste any of Joba's innings in the minors.  My question is, how will this process work?  

Girardi seemed to give some hints in his remarks after the game.  He said that the process was similar to spring training and usually pitchers threw about 35 pitches in their first start of the spring.  But, when pressed to compare Joba's transition to the typical four-week schedule a starter would go through in spring, he refused to commit to that timeframe.  

So, Joba is going to get stretched out and do it over at least four weeks and probably more.  I would suspect looking at the calendar that this means he moves to the rotation around July 1st which means there would be just under half the season left ont he schedule.  Let's assume Joba throws about 30 innings getting ready and that means he has around 90 left in the tank and that would put him at an average of 6 per start over the second half.

Of course there are a couple of questions that need to be answered.  First and foremost, who takes over the 8th inning as Joba moves to this new role?  I have a feeling that it will be the 2008 version of Joba and his name is going to be either Melancon or Cox.  Cox has made it to AAA and Melancon is in AA.  Of the two, Melancon is the better prospect and he has been mentioned as a closer of the future, so it wouldn't shock me to see him setting up Rivera as soon as August.  Cox closed for the University of Texas when they won the CWS, so he has handled pressure before. 

The other big questions are how will the Yankees get Joba the work he needs and who's spot does he take in the rotation?  Considering the state of the rotation, I am not too worried about the latter question, that will work itself out, but the first is hard to figure out.  If Joba needs to pitch three innnings on a certain day would the Yankees lift a starter who is cruising along with a very low pitch count?  How do you guarantee that he will even get in his work?  It is going to be an interesting experiment and I don't know what the answers are, but the Yankees are doing the right thing for the future.  Joba belongs in the rotation and we will see that become a reality soon.   

May 20, 2008

The Blame Game

Some will credit Joe Girardi for standing up after Sunday night's disaster and taking the blame for the Yankees' performance.  For me, it was more an act of stupid heroism.  I think trying to assign blame now is a pointless exercise and it won't make the Yankees hit any better, but maybe it will motivate the team.  We have seen countless examples in sports of teams rallying around their coach and maybe this was Girardi's attempt to instill that.  If it works, he will look like a genuis, but it got me to thinking about where the real blame for this season's stumble (and that's what I am calling it for now) lies.

When I thought about it for awhile, it came down to three different entities.  I say entities because I cannot speicifically name two groups.  Anyway, here are my three and please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

#1 is the Yankees' doctors/trainers.  Last year it was Marty Miller who walked the plank for all the injuries in April and May because of his "new-age" techniques.  You could argue that this season is simply bad luck, but how about the way the team has handled some of their injured players.  How did A-Rod and Posada get back into games long before they were medically cleared to do so?  If I am going to lay some blame, I am going to start here.

#2 is Dave Eiland.  Eiland replaced Ron Guidry, a guy who won 168 more games as a Yankee than him, becasue he was supposed to be the key to handling the young pitchers.  Kennedy and Hughes have been disasters and I don't know if you noticed, but Joba isn't blowing people away the same way he did last year.  Do we give Eiland credit for Edwar Ramirez?  Maybe, but I would like to see more than 8+ innings from him before I call him a success.

#3 is the bench as a unit.  Losing A-Rod and Posada would have been bad under any conditions, but the utter lack of performance from Ensberg, Molina, Gonzalez, Moeller, Duncan and Betemit has made them killer injuries.  There have been two large holes in the lineup for the past three weeks and nobody from this group has stepped up to fill them. 

Those would be my choices for the three biggest cuplrits in the season.  I thought of some others but I felt these were the biggest.  

But, as I said, I think the blame game is stupid.  Look at things right now, 20-24 exactly where they were in 2007.  The difference is the 2007 team had scored 57 more runs at this point but was also 4 1/2 games further out of first.  I will take that trade, because the games are more significant to me.  A-Rod is back tonight and stop and take a look at the schedule from now until the end of June.  If the Yankees are who we think they are, they will make a big run over these next six weeks.   

UPDATE: Well, that sucks a lot of hope out of the air, the Orioles score a touchdown in the first.


May 19, 2008

No-Hitter Redux

Words cannot describe (especially my words) what Jon Lester has been through and what he has achieved.  From battling cancer, to winning the deciding game in the 2007 World Series and tonight throwing a no-hitter.

Good work Jon.

I'm sure Terry Francona was hoping and praying that Lester finished up his accomplishment quickly in the 9th as he wound up throwing a career high 130 pitches.  I would not have been surprised to see Francona, at Theo Epstein's orders, come out at any point in the 9th telling Lester his night was over, no-hitter or not.

With Clay Buchholz throwing one last year, Lester this year, Derek Lowe in 2002 and Hideo Nomo in 2001, no-hitters are back in vogue in Boston.

Some facts:

 - Jason Varitek has caught the most hitters in baseball history with 4 (see above).

 - Jon Lester is the first Red Sox left to throw a no-no since Mel Parnell July 14th 1956.

 - Red Sox reliever Chris Smith was warming up in the bullpen and with a high likelihood of being returned to Pawtucket after tonight's game, he was probably the only one in Fenway Park, other than the Royals, wishing against a no-hitter.  Instead, he will be sent packing to AAA still never having appeared in an MLB game.  In time Chris, in time.

 - Lester's was the 18th Red Sox no-hitter.

Rotation Set

The Red Sox announced their rotation plans for the next few days.

Monday - Jon Lester

Tuesday - Justin Masterson

Wednesday - Bartolo Colon

Thursday - Daisuke Matsuzaka

The most interesting of these to me is Colon as if he does well, it'll force a longer-term decision by the Red Sox.  Options include returning Craig Hansen or even Clay Buchholz back to Pawtucket.  I am still happy the Red Sox were able to get Colon as he could end up being a big help while the younger pitchers find their rhythm.

If Colon struggles, well so what, release him with little financial liability.

As far as Masterson is concerned, I have to assume this is a spot start only what with the Red Sox playing a doubleheader this past Saturday.  Even if Masterson dominates in his start, he will be sent back to the minors for more development, as it should be.

The Red Sox host the Kansas City Royals for 4 starting tonight.

May 17, 2008

Micah Owings, the Next Babe Ruth?

Arizona starting pitcher Micah Owings has gotten his career kicked off in a decent fashion.  At 25 years old, he is entering his 2nd season at the Major League level and has won 13 games with 9 losses.

A college boy, Owings attended Georgia Tech in 2003 then transferred to Tulane University in 2004.  He had to wait a year per NCAA rules after a transfer, but picked up the ball again in 2005 for Tulane.  He was selected by the Diamondbacks in 2005 and signed with them thus ending his collegiate career.

Owings continued to pitch well once in the Diamondbacks organization.  Here's a look at this numbers since college:

YearLevelWLIPERHBBKERAWHIP
2003GT9388.0398421583.991.19
2005TU124129.247111251353.261.05
2005A+1122.06174302.450.95
20062A/3A162162.060162511303.331.31
2007AAA005.004170.001.00
2007MLB88152.273146501064.301.28
2008MLB5149.2214116423.811.15

So what you say?  I agree, his pitching has been just fine, but nothing that would make you run out and buy his rookie card.

As my headline suggests, there is more to Owings than his arm.  Owings can hit too.

There have been many pitchers that could hit a bit.  Yankees fans, you might remember Rick Rhoden was used as a DH.  Tim Wakefield was a star shortstop in high school and started his pro career as a shortstop, although his batting record in the majors is...bad.

Wes Ferrell is probably the best hitting pitcher not named Babe Ruth.  Ferrell put up .280/.351/.446 numbers in his 15 season career.  He was an ok pitcher too.

We all recognize Ruth as the best hitting pitcher of all time.  Because of his hitting talent, he stopped pitching as it was best to get him in there everyday.  I do wonder how long and how well he'd have lasted had he pitched and played OF on his "off-days."

Back to Owings.  In just 2 season at the Major League level, Owings has opened eyes with his hitting.  Check these results out at the MLB level:  .341/.372/.636/1.008.  Sample size you yell!  Ok, how does 95 plate appearances sound?

Fluke! you yell.  Fine, check out his minor league numbers: .371/.375/.516/.891 in 66 PAs.

Where does this come from?  Check out his career numbers at the plate including college:

YearLevelGABRHHRRBI.Avg.ObpSlg.OPS
2003GT5720943641542.306.392.593.985
2005TU6421761771863.355.470.7191.189
2005A+1101011.0001.0001.0002.000
20062A/3A2559921113.356.361.508.869
2007AAA120100.500.500.5001.000
2007MLB3460920415.333.349.6831.032
2008MLB152851013.357.419.536.955
Totals 19757612719439137.337---

Micah Owings can hit.  I don't care what his college numbers were so much as how good he has been as a professional.  I dare you to find me a pitcher who has put up such batting numbers in a large a sample size at the pro level that didn't become a star.

I did think of one:  Rick Ankiel.  While he is not a star, he could always hit and for a while could really pitch.  After a "serenity now!" her dropped the pitching thing and his now starting OF for the Cardinals.  Not bad.  But even his "total numbers" which include time as a starting OF, he doesn't quite compare to Owings.

Owings is putting up numbers that are amazing.  He his getting on base (mostly via the hit) and hitting for power.  I challenge the Arizona Diamondbacks to give this kid regular PT as a batter.  Heck, you can use the offense, who couldn't?

While his pitching numbers have been good, I think Owings might better help a team with his bat.

May 15, 2008

I Say Start Him Again

I have a feeling I am in the minority here, but I say give Kennedy another start.  I know the #'a weren't pretty today, but he attacked the Rays hitters and got beat.  That is a different approach than we have seen and I think it merits another try.  Plus, who else are you going to trot out there right now? 

What I would do is skip his next turn (Yankees are off Monday) and pitch him next Saturday against the Mariners.  Let's face it, they are not a good offensive club and I think Kennedy could do well against them.  

That's what I think, how about you? 

Baseball Is Loaded

Have you noticed the player signings in the past few days?  Hanley Ramirez just signed a big contract with Florida.  Scott Kazmir just got a deal from the Rays and now Ryan Braun got an eight-year deal from the Brewers.

Clearly, the game is loaded with money if the "small" market clubs can make these types of deals and it just reinforces how important the farm system is going to be in the future.  I would guess that fewer and fewer true stars will see free agency and as with anything, lower supply means greater demand.  That means Sabathia and  Mark Teixeira will probably hit the lottery this offseason and any superstars who do make it to free agency will do likewise.  

Big start for Kennedy today, they really need him to step up and guess who got sent down to make room for him?  (Do you really have to guess, it's the $46-million dollar man and I don't think we can rebuild him)

May 14, 2008

The Invasion Will Begin At 19:00 Hours

Dateline Tampa

In response to Supreme Commander, Hank Steinbrenner's, vows to turn things around "by force" if needed, the Yankees will invade Tropicana Field tonight.

Damon and Jeter were scheduled to parachute in and start the attack, But after several satelite passes, the Yankees doctors in charge of coordinating the attack noticed that there was a large roof on top of the structure and cancelled the maneuver. 

Bobby Abreu was going to be in charge of demolitions, but it turns out he is afraid of walls and is therefore AWOL.

Jose Molina, Morgan Ensberg and Robinson Cano are being left at the team hotel since they are incapable of offensive operations at this moment.  

Jason Giambi will be leaving the hotel now in hopes that he can make it to the Trop by "go" time.

Kyle Farnsworth is being held in reserve for special operations because nobody wants to mess with Kyle.

Sadly, Carl Pavano is MIA.

More details as they come available.   

 

May 13, 2008

Yu Darvish

No, that's not a Yiddish curse word.  Rather it's the name of Japanese baseball's next superstar.

ESPN.com had a great look at Darvish courtesy of Jim Caple.

Darvish has dominated in his brief time in the Japanese League.  At 21 years old, he isn't eligible for free agency for years, but his current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters has said it would consider the wishes of any of its players to play abroad.

Of course the Ham Fighters are saying that, they stand to make a nice windfall.

The question I pose to you:  Is paying a posting of say $50mm plus just for the right to talk with Yu a good idea?  Consider also you need to sign him to a contact.  Using recent examples, the Red Sox ponied up $51mm for the right to speak with Daisuke Matsuzaka and then signed him to a 6 year, $56mm deal.  So that's $107mm over 6 years for an untested player.  So far so good, although he hasn't dominated quite the way I had hoped and he is probably the most frustrating player in the Red Sox what with his tendencies to walk too many.

One of the original post/sign transactions was for Ichiro and that turned out to be a fantastic transaction for all involved.

There are other examples that haven't worked out so well, at least not yet.

For the purpose of appealing to the site constituency, let's imagine you are the GM of the Yankees or the Red Sox and it is ultimately up to you what to do regarding Darvish.  Let him go somewhere else, or put down your best offer and hope for the best?

My answer:  If I'm Theo Epstein, of course I make an offer to Nippon.  Without knowing what, if any financial obstacles the Red Sox are dealing with, I would make my offer in the low 50mm range.  Assuming you could sign Darvish for a similar $8-10mm a year deal like Matsuzaka did, that means your commitment is $106mm - $112m over 6 years or around $18mm per year.  Mentally I would want to avoid any contract over $20mm a year (I understand that by paying $50mm a year upfront makes it an even more expensive deal, but for simplicity, I'll use average per year).

The reason this posting system can be so good for MLB teams is that they needn't pay luxury tax on the posting fee and they don't owe any draft pick compensation.  At the same time, the system can be a disaster as no one yet has figured out a way to determine if players will thrive here or flop.

So I'm penciling in Yu Darvish in as the # 3 next year in the Red Sox rotation.  Done and done.

May 12, 2008

No!

In a stunning move, the Red Sox have designated Julian Tavarez for assignment.   That means Tavarez will either be traded, released or assigned to Pawtucket within the next 10 days.  I'm kidding about the stunning part.

What it really means is this.  We will never see a professional baseball player bowl a baseball to first base.  We will never see a pitcher try to pick off an opponent by running from the mound to second base, only to flop in the general vicinity of second base all the while missing the runner by yards and seconds.

It was easy to poke fun at Tavarez, as I just did, but at the same time, he was a good person.  WEEI interviewed Tavarez during either the 2006 or 2007 season and I came away with great appreciation of him.

Tavarez was born in the Dominican Republic and unlike his current lifestyle, he was raised in relative poverty.  Tavarez spoke of sleeping on a dirt floor.  For those of us who've faced difficult times (or what we perceived as difficult times), try calling a dirt floor your bed.

Tavarez is unorthodox, but found a role in Boston.  Being in the last year of his deal, Tavarez was expendable.  Rumors abound that Boston was close to dealing him to the Colorado Rockies.  In fact, Manny Ramirez was quoted as saying the Red Sox should deal him for one of Milwaukee's sausages.  Ahh...Manny, a man of thoughtfulness.

Now that we've covered the human side, what it means is that Sean Casey is back.

On another note, Red Sox pitchers need to walk fewer batters or give up fewer hits.  When you keep your WHIP (Walks plus Hits divided into Innings Pitched, basically the number of base runners you allow per inning) below 1.30 or so, you have a much better chance of success.  Take for example:

Wakefield:  1.38 Whip, 2-2

Buchholz:  1.63 Whip, 2-3

Beckett:  0.94 Whip, 4-2

Matsuzaka:  1.22 Whip, 6-0

Let's Use Our Heads

There are a ton of stories in the paper today about how yesterday's rainout helped the Yankees.  The thinking is that because the rain washed out Andy Pettitte's start, the Yankees can shift the rotation and skip Igawa's scheduled turn on Wednesday.  All of that is true, but consider the fact that by pitching today Pettitte will not be able to make his scheduled start on Friday which is the opener of the Subway Series.

Add in the fact that the Mets were rained out last Friday and had to play two on Saturday.  They used Santana and Pelfrey in their two games Saturday.  They play this upcoming Thursday and then head to the Stadium Friday.  They can slot Pelfrey and Santana however they want for those two games so does anyone doubt that they will save Santana for Friday night against the Yankees? 


Because of the rain, the Yankees have to chose when they want to pitch Rasner, Thursday or Friday, they will need to use either Igawa or the infamous "TBA" for the other start.  Considering the opponent and likely starter, I think it is unlikely you would see any of the rookies, including Kennedy make Friday's start.  So, I would imagine Rasner goes Friday and that leaves Thursday's start up in the air.  This is just a guess, but I would suspect that Dan Giese, the 30-year old journeyman who is doing well in AAA gets the call.  Giese pitched for Scranton on Saturday which means he is in turn and he has a 1.13 ERA in 39 innings so far this year.  My backup candidate would be Chase Wright.  Wright is only at AA, but he has pitched pretty well and we have obviously seen him before.  Wright's one advantage is that he is already on the 40-man roster.  The Yankees could move Cervelli to the 60-day DL to make room for Giese so I don't think it is that big an advantage.   

I think the one thing every Yankees' fan can agree on is that we don't want to see Igawa again.  Stay tuned.... 

UPDATE 6:10PM- Apparently it will be Kennedy pitching Thursday.  Is one start in the minors enough to have fixed him?  I'm not sure about that, though I favor using him over Igawa.  The problem is, what do the Yankees do if he bombs on Thursday?  And, what do they do with Igawa at this point?  That's definitely $46 million down the tank, but how long do they continue to pretend he has a future in New York as a starter?  How about trying him as a reliever now and see if that does anything to improve his value?

 

May 10, 2008

There's A Hole...In My Lineup

So far the "Merry Merry Month of May" has been anything but that for the Yankees' catchers.  Combined they are 4-for-29 with 1 RBI (.138 AVG).  That is absolutley putrid and below their combined career numbers (.233 AVG combined).  Jorge Posada is starting to do some light throwing, but he is three weeks away at best and probably more.  The Yankees can't even be sure he will be able to return as a catcher on a full-time basis because his shoulder needs surgery, they just hope he can wait until November. 

The Yankees need to go out and trade for a backup catcher who can hit.  Failing that, let's bring Stewart up from AAA again and see if he can hit.  I'm not sure he can, but he does have the benefit of some youth on his side.  Either way, the Yankees know what Moeller and Molina can do with the bat and it isn't much. 

The Yankees are 18-19, they have scored exactly the same number of runs as they have allowed.  They either need to pitch better or hit better to break out of this funk and that is hard to do when you have a hole in both the lineup and rotation.  Ideally, you fix both, but realistically nobody is going to trade you a starter in May.  So, try and find some offense and catcher would be a wise place to start. 

Farewell Lugo

Julio Lugo is just awful right now.  Let's see, the Red Sox as a team have committed 21 errors as a team.  Lugo has 11, that's more than half.  Lugo was never considered an elite SS, but he was considered at worst average.

Theo Epstein got himself into this mess signing Lugo to a 4 year, $36mm deal.  Lugo's Red Sox career has been bad, and that's being generous.  So what can the Red Sox do about it?  With 2+ years left on his deal, benching Lugo seems a bit silly but trading him also seems silly as the Red Sox would likely have to pick up a big part of his deal (baring receiving an equally bad contract in return).

If they do sit him down, I suppose Alex Cora (due back Sunday) could play each day or at least be put into a platoon situation.

If I'm Epstein, I find a way to cut this guy loose ASAP.  Trade him or bench him, but just don't keep him out there.  Jed Lowrie has proven that at worst he is an equal swap and by giving him the job, the Red Sox get to see another component of their future.  If Lowrie stumbles, Cora can lend a hand.

I think the most telling thing about Lugo and his inability to fit in here is this quote after Thursday's game given to the Herald's Steve Buckley:

“I don’t care, but sometimes it would be nice to say something positive,” he said. “But all the time it’s negative things, you know? Sometimes, you know, people should say something that’s positive. But every time it’s something negative . . . bring it up, bring it up, bring it up. Why?

“I understand you (the media) are going to write whatever you want . . . but I come here every day and bust my ass . . . if things don’t work out sometimes, that’s the way it’s going to be. You understand? But sometimes you bring up the same things . . . You get tired of that.”

This is what Red Sox players have to prepare themselves for mentally.  Those that can handle it excel, those that cannot are, well, Edgar Renteria.  Take your game somewhere else Julio.  If you want to play to empty stands and non-caring fans, go to Florida (14,980 fans a game).

No matter Lugo's capabilities, it's time for Boston to move on and find someone who can handle playing in Boston.

Kennedy Could Do That

Say what you want about Ian Kennedy, but it is fair to say he would have done better than Igawa tonight.  Igawa may be the only guy in the world who would lose a popularity contest against Carl Pavano with Yankees' fans.  To make matters worse, Albie got hurt in the game and it sounds like it will be a long-term injury.   

My question is this, with Albie hurt, why wouldn't the Yankees bring Kennedy back?  They have an injury exemption that allows them to bring anyone back to the majors, so why use it on Britton instead of Kennedy?  Not that I have anything against Britton, I wish the Yankees would give him a shot, but does anyone think Igawa will pitch well next Wednesday against Tampa?  I know I don't and while one game in the minors doesn't prove much, I still think Kennedy gives the Yankees a better chance to win than Igawa and isn't that all that matters? 

May 09, 2008

Moves Made, Moves Not To Make

I credit Tyler with succinctly stating the reason the Yankees shouldn't take a flier on David Wells.  As he wrote in the comments of a previous post, "To me, Wells is still the guy who left that huge World Series game in Florida after all of one inning."

I agree and I have mentioned before that I think that move cost the Yankees the 2003 World Series.  Add in the fact that Wells is 45, a pain in the ass and pitched to a 5.43 ERA in the NL last year and there is no reason to even think of signing him.  The guy to sign for the 50th time is Freddy Garcia.  He is reportedly going to throw off a mound this week and the Yankees should strongly consider signing him for this year with an option for next year like they did with Lieber in 2003. 

As for tonight, I know we are all looking forward to Kei Igawa's return (sorry, couldn't resist).  To make room for Igawa, the Yankees sent Chris Britton down.  That leaves eight relievers on the acitve roster and it is about time for the Yankees to cut that down to seven.  I imagine that will happen next week when A-Rod comes back and I think Edwar Ramirez is going to go.

The bigger question in the bullpen is how long does Joba stay in his current role?  I think they will look to move him around the All-Star Break and that means they have about two months to figure out his replacement.  I think they have three candidates currently on the roster, Albie, Ohlendorf and Veras.  It is time to put these guys into some bigger situations and see what they can do.   

May 06, 2008

Interesting Move

The Yankees activated Wilson Betemit from the DL today and demoted Alberto Gonzalez.  Activating Betemit is a no-brainer, but demoting Gonzalez is odd.  The Yankees have 13 pitchers on the roster and while Gonzalez is wasting on the bench, it still makes no sense to carry that many hurlers.

It sounds like the Yankees plan to platoon Ensberg and Betemit at third, which isn't a bad idea.  Betemit hasn't shown it since coming to the Yankees, but he has hit righties very well in his career.  The problem is the bench is only Ensberg or Betemit, Duncan and Moeller on most nights, that is just too thin.  Why the Yankees chose to keep 9 relievers instead of Gonzalez is beyond my understanding. 

 

May 05, 2008

Moss Gathering Moss

It seems as though Brandon Moss has developed quite a reputation of late.  As you probably know already, he was DLed Saturday, the result of an emergency appendectomy (which ones aren’t emergency?  “Mr. Moss, I don’t like the look of your appendix, let’s take it out.  Shall we say February 2010?).

The legend of Moss, a legend I’ve been largely unaware of, has been growing, here’s evidence:

From Sunday’s Globe feature “On Baseball” by Nick Cafardo:

"I've been trying to get Moss for three years," said one assistant general manager in the American League West. "I think he's a guy who is going to be a very good major league player.

"He can do a lot of things. Strong left-handed bat. Good head for the game, but the Red Sox aren't inclined to deal him. We've tried, believe me."

In addition, the day before his surgery, Moss had complained of abdominal pain, but then played in Friday night’s game going 2-4 with a home run.  A legend building feat, no?

I guess we should all be happy he is on the Red Sox.  For whatever reason, I’ve considered him a 4th outfielder with maybe the chance to be a starter on a team other than the Red Sox.  Let’s hope I’m wrong.

With Moss’s injury, once expected to sideline him 3-5 weeks, the Red Sox promoted Craig Hansen, thus fulfilling my wish.  I expect Hansen will stay here for the long haul with the Red Sox instead deciding to get rid of another reliever when the time comes.  Mike Timlin and Javier Lopez are the leading candidates.  Lopez because he is a side-throwing lefty who lets too many lefties get on base.  In 6.1 IP against lefties this year, he has only given up 4 hits, but walked 5.  Terry Francona wants Lopez to challenge lefties, not walk them.  Against righties, he has allowed 9 hits and 1 walk in 5.2 IP.  His 3.75 era might look good, but it’s soft.

I haven’t said much lately on this, but the late Will McDonough is being proved right about Roger Clemens more than ever.  Clemens is the Texas Con Man.

May 04, 2008

Kennedy Gone, Igawa Next?

The Yankees have optioned Ian Kennedy down to make room for Rasner.  Since Kennedy has to stay in the minors for 10 days (unless the Yankees have an injury) it is safe to assume that he is out of the rotation right now and Igawa is probably going to take his place.

It's hard to argue with the move because Kennedy is a mess right now.  The Yankees can send him to Scranton and hopefully he will find his control.  The problem is Iggy, I just don't trust the guy but I don't think the Yankees have many other options right now in Scranton.

I am still trying to figure out why Dave Eiland has the reputation of being great with the young pitchers.  I haven't seen much from him so far. 

May 02, 2008

This Is A Good Idea

I admit, I am a big Joel Sherman fan.  The guy has some great columns and he did a wonderful job filling in on the radio for Suzyn Waldman last year.  His latest blog entry is a good read for any Yankees' fan.

I don't know why the Yankees are playing with a 24-man roster for three games.  It makes no sense and if you don't want to add Gardner to the 40-man and bring him up, why not promote a pitcher who can give you a couple of bullpen innings?  Rasner doesn't have to be activated until Sunday, it makes no sense. 

The Yankees are 14-16 right now, the same record they had in 2007.  The thing is, it was May 7th, 2007, when they reached the 30th game last year and that season also started on April 2nd.  They have played a brutal schedule and when you throw in the injuries, it shouldn't surprise anyone that they are 14-16.  The thing is, this year they probably won't have the luxury of taking May off like they did last season.  Remember, in 2007 they went 7-13 from this point to fall to 21-29, 14 1/2 games out of first.  They went 73-39 the rest of the way to win 94 games.  

The biggest difference between that team and this one is offense.  That team scored 176 runs in their first 30 games while giving up 150.  This team has scored only 129 while giving up 141. So, the pitching is a little better and the hitting is a lot worse.  Will that turn around?  You would assume the pitching has to get a little better just by removing Hughes from the rotation right now (and maybe Kennedy)  When two of your starters are surrendering a run an inning, you have nowehere to go but up.  The offense is a trickier matter.  Other than Cano and Jeter, who is really underperforming right now?  You could say Giambi, but he is 37 and may simply be finished.  Moeller and Molina are going to be a huge downgrade from Posada and Ensberg is not going to come anywhere close to the production that A-Rod provided.

So, what can the Yankees do about it?  First, I would get some real doctors to tell you honestly how long Posada and A-Rod are going to be gone.  If the answer is truly a month for Posada and two weeks for Alex, sit tight.  If not, time to work a trade for hitting.  Even if the answer is a good one, I hope Cashman is working the phpnes for a pitcher because it certainly looks like the Yankees need another starter.

Other than that, get creative.  Brad Wilkerson is a little too young to be finished and he just was DFA'ed.  Freddy Garcia is still out there, why not take a flier?   The Yankees are like every team in baseball, they need to score more and give up less.  How they get there is the question. 

May 01, 2008

Cracked Rib?

OK, the Yankees didn't make up Hughes' injury, but how exactly did he go from healthy to having a cracked rib?  That leads me to big worries about the Yankees' medical staff, but the bottom line is don't expect to see Hughes again until July. 

Of bigger concern is Hughes' history with injuries.  His 2005 season was cut short because of injuries and we all know what happened in 2007.  Now, he has his 3rd season in 4 years interrupted by injuries.  That is a very bad sign for now and the future.  

That is something we can worry about another day, for now the Yankees would be wise to start thinking about Joba's transition to the rotation.  They might need him there very soon.   

An Offense at Rest Tends to Stay at Rest

Perhaps Newton's theories are readily applied to baseball, and specifically to the Red Sox offense.

Last 7 day performance for the Red Sox offense:  .198/.260/.264/.524 (avg/obp/slg/ops).  Yes, it got worse after last night's win.  Included in the past 7 days:  39 H, 197 AB, 2 HRs, 13 runs, 13 RBI, 16 BB, 37 K's.  For an entire offense to do that, especially one with at worst decent hitters, is just amazing...amazingly bad.

The good news?  The pitching has also done well:  2.55 ERA over the same timeframe.  Yes they have a 2-4 record over the last week, but it could have been worse had the pitching not stepped up.

Given Peter's comments on the Yankee offense and the numbers to back it up, .211/.286/.336/.622, it is amazing to see such apparent powerhouse offenses struggle so badly.  Perhaps if the two teams merged you could patch together a league average offense.  Did I just say merge the Red Sox and Yankees?  That's a sacrilegious thing to say on this sight, please forgive me.