YankeesRedSox.com

New York Times said Twins want Austin Jackson or Horne as the third player from the Yankees along with Hughes and Cabrera. Yanks told them hell no, thank God. So that seems to be the deal breaker so far for the Yanks.

I don't understand why the Yankees or Red Sox refuse to just walk away. I just don't believe that the Twins are going to give Santana away to the other team because it would probably create a riot in Minnesota. Neither team seems willing to meets the Twins' price, Red Sox won't do Ellsbury and Lester, Yankees won't do Hughes and Kennedy. So, just end this nonsense.

I am also not sure I want Haren, the more I look at him, the more I worry about his numbers.

I don't want life without Ellsbury. Period.

Somebody has to explain to me what the deal with Ellsbury is. Yes, he's fast. Baseball Prospectus projects him to be "an above average centerfielder and occasional all star" as a best case scenario (baseball america is not out yet with their 08 analysis of Ellsbury). In just under about 360 AAA AB's last year, he hit 2 homers, and about 12 triples and doubles. He's a solid prospect who could be a consistent .300 30 SB guy, but he's two years older than Melky. What am I missing here?

Ben, He went through 3 levels this year, so I'll be interested to see what BA (Baseball America) and BP (Baseball Prospectus) say about him when their new studies are released..

I've heard in the past, that he is a Johnny Damon with better and more consistant OBP. But, you never know until he retires (Ellsbury retires).

Peter,

Neither team is willing to risk walking away because for each of them, this is as much about not letting their bitter rival get Santana as it is about bolstering themselves by acquiring Santana. Each team fears that if it walks away, the Twins, suddenly finding themselves in a dramatically weakened bargaining position, will then give Santana away to their hated rival for much less than would otherwise have been the case. Both want to get him of course, but they also want to ensure that if they don't get him, that the cost to their rival to acquire him will at least be ruinously high. The three teams have locked themselves into a precarious three-way balancing act. Disengaging themselves is going to be difficult, particularly for the Yankees and Red Sox. Frankly, I was hoping that the Yankees would finally have the good sense to walk away if Hughes + Cabrera + a minor prospect was not going to satisfy the Twins. I just don't like the idea of giving out enormous 5- or 6-year contracts to pitchers (yes, I've changed my tune on this, as I've had more time to think about it), especially when there are additional costs in promising prospects. Baseball history clearly suggests that the odds are very much against the signing team getting anything near good value from Santana over the life of the deal. To also have to lose 2 very promising pitchers for him is madness. If he were a free agent, I'd swallow really, really hard and do what I must to sign him (within limits of five years max, $25 million/year max). But given the enormous risk involved, I am not willing to also give away 2 promising young pitchers. Sure, history also suggests that it is very unlikely that Hughes and Chamberlain and Kennedy are all going to meet our expectations (especially since the NYC media does such a great job of over-hyping seemingly promising youngsters), but I have to think that if we try to hoard enough of our promising pitching prospects, then the odds are with us that some good ones will emerge. I say let's back out, develop lots of youngsters, and see where they can take us. The path we're on now is insane. Consider that Santana is 28, and Hughes is 21. In eight years, Santana will be 36 and Hughes will be only 29. Santana has a lot of years on his arm already. The cost is too high. if the Yankees are serious about changing how they go about doing their business, then they have to back out of this. Yes, they probably don't make the playoffs next year with three rookies in the rotation, especially if Pettite is not there to help out and Mussina is going out there every fifth day, but that's the price that must be paid if they are serious about changing their modus operandi.

energy, excitement, built for Fenway (hits all fields), handsome (yes I said it).

This info might be on other posts, but it can't hurt to repost here:

- Report suggests the Yanks have given Twins a Monday deadline to poop or get off the pot.

- Yankees/Twins haggling over 3 player sent to Twins

- Ellsbury apparently has always been available and has been included in previous offers.

- Johan Santana was spotted with a grin that measured 1 foot wide.

Sons of Sam Horn has a link dedicated to news on this deal (all with links).

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=25775&st=20

Well said Greg, same applies with Sox side.

Here is the thing for the Sox - if not mistaken, they led the AL in ERA last year, or at least their starters did.

Lester for a full year and hopefully stronger.

Dice-K more matured from a season under the belt.

Beckett enjoying dominating.

Schilling knowing it takes pitching and not throwing.

Buchholz getting feet wetter.

I like this staff without adding a cy young type stud.

I like Lester/Buchholz/Ellsbury for next 5-8 years too.

It's pretty amazing that both sides of this rivalry would prefer not to get this guy. I wonder if we will all be so sure next season when he wins 20 games and strikes out 200?

Blmeanie,

I don't believe that the Red Sox feel that they really need Santana. I strongly suspect that they were more concerned about keeping him away from the Yankees (or at least making him very expensive for the Yankees) than in adding him to their rotation. Of course, they would have loved to have him (who wouldn't?) but I just don't see how acquiring him is their top priority, or is even in their best interests over the long term. I think they would be better served allocating their resources to higher priorities.

Peter,

It's easy to understand, really. It's not that both sides prefer not to get him -- again, they'd love to have him -- its just that both teams prefer not to sacrifice their futures to get him. Signing him as the most expensive free agent pitcher in the history of baseball is a high enough price to pay and big enough risk to take. Trading away two or more high-ceiling, quality prospects just adds too much additional risk for this to be sensible. Let's suppose he is traded to (and signs an extension with) an NL team (other than the Mets), e.g., the Dodgers. In that case, I'll bet the combined collective sighs of relief from the Yankees and Red Sox front offices would be audible all along I-95 from Boston to New York. I think we can extend this line of reasoning a step further to include AL teams as well: I would think that from the perspective of either team, so long as Santana doesn't end up with the their bitterest rival, the Angels, the Tigers, the Indians or the Blue Jays, they're probably going to be relieved. Of those AL teams, I see only the Angels as having the resources to acquire and sign him, and the allure to entice him. But I don't see the Angels giving up the prospects, nor do I see them committing the money and the years. If we accept this logic, then certainly if he goes to an NL team, the Red Sox and the Yankees are probably going to be pleased that at least he has gone to the other league. Obviously, for the Yankees, the Mets are an exception to this logic. They have the money and the willingness to spend it, but not the chips to entice Minnesota to trade, as they have taken Reyes and Wright off the table. From the Yankees perspective, the best thing would be if Santana becomes a free agent in 2008. In that case, taking into account both the resources of the various teams and the allure to entice him to sign, I think it would come down to the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels. In this case, I think the Yankees will be in the strongest position because they have more money to throw at him than anyone else. That situation would clearly play to their greatest strength. I don't believe the Dodgers and Angels (or the Cubs and the White Sox, if it came down to that) would be willing to spend the money, leaving the NYC teams and the Red Sox as serious competitors for his services. In that case we'll be revisiting some of the same issues in a year that we've been discussing recently. Even if he goes out and strikes out 300, wins 25 games and the Cy Young award, he'll be looking for at least the same money, probably more, and probably the same number of years, and he'll have added the wear and tear of another season to his arm.

The Yankees and Red Sox have let this spin out of control because of their unhealthy obsession with each other. It is in their power to step down off the ledge. All they need to do is summon up the courage to take the step.