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The Real Cost Of Santana Could Equal $50 Million A Year

That's right Yankees' fans, Santana is going to cost a whole lot more than the $20-$25 million a year he is supposedly seeking.

First off you have to pay Santana and don't forget to add luxury tax dollars to the deal so your $20-$25 million becomes $24-$30 million a season (Yanks get dinged at 40%)

Then, you need to replace Melky Cabrera in center since he is probably the one guy guaranteed to be in the package. Tori Hunter just got $18 million a year from the Angels. The Yankees are not going to go the Bubba Crosby route here and I don't see Damon switching back to center, especially with health concerns surrounding Giambi and Matsui. So, I would expect them to turn around and sign either Rowand or Jones. That probably costs around $15-$18 ($18-$21.6 million in luxury tax money).

When I look at numbers like that, this trade makes absolutely no sense. Why not just wait until 2009 when he is a free agent? You would have kept your three top prospects, finally determined if Melky is the answer in center (this could be a downside too) and think about the payroll. After 2008, you can subtract the contracts of Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, Pavano, Farnsowrth and Pettitte if he returns. That's between $64.5 million and $80.5 million depending on Andy. Sure, he could get traded and sign an extension before you get a chance to bid, but that would make the most sense to me.

Comments

I agree with everything you said. As much as I want Santana, this is a huge investment, and one that I do not want to make via trade.

the centerfield comment is the first time I have seen that side of it, well done Peter.

I agree with what you say as well which is why I don't see the Twins having as much leverage prospect-wise as people think.

That said, I've said for a while, assuming Pettitte comes back, we have enough talent in the rotation to be comfortable going into the season. Whether that talent delivers is another thing and given that we are probably going to rely on 3 rookie startes, I see no value in making a drastic move now when Santana and other will be available cheaper come the deadline if we determine that we [the Yankees] are in fact an ace away from a World Series run.

I hope you came up with this theory, thinking that the Twins retain Santana for 2008. If not, whatever team(Angels, Mets, Redsox or Dodgers) loses prized prospects are definitely going to offer Santana a 6-7 year extension. By the way, aren't we always complaining about pitching? So why does it matter whoever we put on center as long as he is at least average defensively? I rather have a hole in the line-up and aquire a AL proven ace than have no holes in the lineup and still be that one ace away from number 27. Finally who the heck are we to worry about the teams finances, obviously Cashman has a slightly better idea than us so I'm sure he won't do anything that doesn't make sense.

I wonder. Maybe they will go the "Bubba Crosby route." Girardi reportedly wanted Crosby to be the starting CFer. He even tried to trade for Bubba (after he became manager of the Marlins.)

Not literally Bubba Crosby, of course, but Girardi's strength as a manager is supposed to be creating a winning team out of young, no-name players.

BL/Tim- Thanks and as you said Tim I think waiting for the trading deadline may be the smartest move they can make.

Faiaz/Randy-

My question back to you would be who is that younger centerfielder who is also better defensively? Do you guys think they would go with Gardner full time next season?

I view it as Gardner not being ready and the Yankees without a guy to take the spot if they lose Melky. I don't disagree about your characterization of Girardi, Randy, but I just don't know who that player he can mold is.

I would love not to spend the money or the young pitching on Santana and sign him as a free agent - but he is never making it to free agency - and, with the reports that the Sox might be willing to part with Pedroia and Ellsbury for Santana - I do NOT want to be going up against Beckett and Santana in the ALCS for the next 5 years - we will need to over pay for Santana just to keep him away from the Sox.

so you spend 2 billion over the last 7 yas and nowbalk at this? The Sox have Beckett and Because they were willing to spend $100 millsion to get Dice_k they won it all, if the Yankees want to win the WS they need a Santana level pitcher now.

Lou-

That's a good point, but I am not sure the Red Sox are going to grab him either. What happens with Beckett if they sign Santana to a $25 million deal? I can't imagine he would be very content.

Grant-

I think you might be inflating their spending, but I see your point. I would counter with this, how much of that spending was a good investment? Off the top of my head I think about Kevin Brown, Pavano, RJ, Vasquez, Wright, etc.. The Yankees have spent a ton importing pitching because they didn't have any that they produced. Suddenly you have three young starters and while I would never expect any of them to equal Santana, what if the three of them turned into above-average starters in the AL at a fraction of the cost?

Girardi never did find a CFer for the Marlins. He ended up throwing everyone out there, including the SS. And this season, just about everyone in their farm system got a chance.

Still, outfield is probably the easiest position to fill. Especially if you just want defense. If trading Melky is what it takes to land Santana, I think they'd do it. Move Damon back to CF and see if someone else emerges, via the farm or a trade. Beats having Matsui and Giambi both DHing.

Randy

I agree, they won't let Melky hold up a trade for Santana. But, I wouldn't bet on them not signing a CF to replace him.

I agree with Peter, I wouldn't let Melky or money hold up a deal. I would let Hughes, Cano and Joba hold up a deal though.

Melky, Betemit, Kennedy would be where I would start and I'd be willing to add any name AAA down to the trade.

They could get another CFer who's not a superstar. The Reds are reportedly shopping Josh Hamilton and Ryan Freel. Or they could get a youngster for Girardi to mold. There are some interesting OFers in the Baseball America's Rule 5 preview today.

I want Santana, but I really don't want to see the Yankees pay Torii Hunter prices for an outfielder. Especially since Girardi can presumably be trusted to give a kid a chance, unlike his predecessor.

Good point Randy, but I wonder if the combination of Hamilton and New York City would be a smart move.

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