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Red Sox First In Line for Santana?

Former major leaguer and current columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Charley "Shooter" Walters is reporting that the Red Sox have moved to the front of the line in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and the players involved aren't who you think.

Walters source? "A little birdie."

The deal is focusing on Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowry (sic) and Justin Masterson in return for Santana.

To be sure, that is a bunch of talent, but it isn't Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Lowrie is at AAA, Masterson AA, Crisp the former starting CF in Boston and Lester is in Boston (like you didn't know that). Minnesota would be getting a starting CF, a lefty starter with good upside in Lester, a SS with a good glove and some pop and a big sinkerballer in Masterson who projects to be a Derek Lowe type of arm.

Of course the next step would be signing Santana, who has a no-trade clause, and who is thought not to be interested in coming to Boston. Players have said that before and usually get some cash thrown at them to make Boston a more enjoyable place to play.

Johan Santana - I don't like Boston.
Theo Epstein - Here's $10 million more dollars.
JS - I love Boston.

It's a common negotiating tact and one that shouldn't be a stumbling block. Of course, I have no idea if Charley Walters is reliable. He apparently broke the recent Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal, so maybe there is something to this.

My take? I do this deal in a heartbeat. The part that brings me most concern is the size and length of contract Santana would want. Reports are 6 years, $150mm. I just posted yesterday that long-term pitcher deals can be disastrous (Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle) but occasionally are great (Pedro Martinez's Red Sox deal, Randy Johnson's original Arizona deal, Greg Maddux deal with Atlanta). So there is big time risk.

I also pointed out last week that the Red Sox currently have a relatively low payroll of around $121mm. If they added $25mm in Santana and subtracted Crisp at $5mm, it is a net result of adding $20mm or so to the payroll. Peter illustrated, however, that there is a higher cost to a Santana deal in that you have to factor in the luxury tax. In Peter's piece, he mentioned that the Yankees have a higher cost because they'd need to replace Cabrera (if he were included) in CF and maybe a few other parts and their tax might be higher, but you get idea.

For Boston, this makes more sense as you have a min. cost CF in Ellsbury ready to step in, Santana replaces Lester in the rotation and Lowrie and Masterson are prospects. I can't believe I am saying this, but I make this deal. Bring it on!

Comments

So with the Red Sox, the twins back off their demands for bucholz and ellsbury, but with the yankees, they stand firm on their demand for hughes.

Is it me or are teams always trying to take the Yankees to the cleaners when it comes to prospects; granted we havent had any good prospects in a long time, but the gagne to boston deal comes to mind.

Also, I think a deal of Melky, Kennedy, and Tabata/Jackson would be a better deal.

If I were the yankees, I would have to stick to my offer of Melky, Kennedy, Tabata, and Horne.

Maybe it's being a Yankee fan and just not wanting to think about Beckett/Santana/Dice-K, but I don't believe it, I think it's just to make the Yankees give up more to get him. I hope anyway.

Jamme, interesting you say that b/c Peter, the Yankees fan on this site and another reader have been going back and forth on the exact opposite of what you said. The reader has said that the Yankees get good players by offering crappy players in return and he pointed to the Bobby Abreu deal. Obviously this debate gets people to share their opinion.

As for the rumor itself, it is just that, a rumor from a Minn reporter. As a Red Sox fan, I would be thrilled not to give up Ellsbury and Buccholz, but the other guys being discussed aren't too shabby either. Some say Masterson has a higher upside (not me) than Buccholz and Lowrie projects to be a good field SS with solid offense. Anyway, let's see if this thing goes down and thanks for the comment. -Andy

Grant, I agree with you. IT does seem like the best of both worlds for the Red Sox if that was the package. I'm not underestimating the talent involved, but again, it isn't Ellsbury and/or Buccholz.

There is a very good chance this was leaked to the MN reporter in order to make the Yankees up the ante. If it is a legit offer and it was leaked, Theo must be pissed, but such is life.

I like the sounds of:

Beckett
Santana
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Buccholz
Wakefield (he'll fit somewhere in there)

Personally, I have felt all along that the Yankees would have to give up Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera and something else to get him so I would be shocked if the Twins made this deal. I can't believe Minnesota would make the move without getting either Ellsbury or Buckholz. But, if it is true I imagine Theo is on a plane to Minnesota right now to finalize things before the Twins wake up.

Andy, I am with you and if I am Theo and the Sox, I do this deal in a heartbeat - or b/f the Twinkies wake up as Peter so aptly put it. You know I have wanted Santana all along but have only dreaded the cost in prospects (especially the poss of losing Ellsbury and Buccholtz) but this deal is perfect if true. Crisp was a goner anyway, Lester is replaced by Johan and you give up two really good prospects in Lowrie and Masterson but they are still prospects and Santana is a great pitcher.

Also, funny that Grant had the exact opposite perspective on the Yanks and trades isn't it?

I can only hope Charley has his scoop straight. Would love that rotation of Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Buccholtz, Schillie, and Wake in the wings.

Very seldom do the Yankees get the better of the deal. Everyone always wants more from them.

obviously you make the deal if you are the Sox.

whether it is a ploy to get more out of the Sox or Yankees in a bidding war, so be it. As long as they hold strong and don't include Ellsbury or Buchholz I am fine with it. Throw in half of Crisp's salary for all I care, works for me...

Mitchell's First Law of Business Deals: if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

IOW, this sounds like a ploy by a "little birdie" to get Hankenstein to panic and up the offerings for Johan. But as the saying goes, "We'll see what we see".

That would be a STEAL for the Sox. Maybe it gets done but I can't believe that the Twins would rather have that package than Melky, Kennedy, Tabata.

Melky is better asset than Crisp at $5mm per. Tabata is a better prospect. Lester vs. Kennedy leans toward Lester but there isn't much seperating them.

Personally, as a Yanks fan, Hughes, Cano, Joba are off the table and if that means we face Beckett Santana Dice K for the next half decade, so be it.

Jack, ESPN reported later in the day that instead of Masterson, Michael Bowden's name had been dangled. Obviously we won't know until we know, but even though we are talking about 4 good players/prospects, it is still a great trade. I think it is good for both squads.

Dave, I agree. The Yankees obviously have very deep pockets, but there is a myth that they have unlimited prospects. Fact is, they easily won the Bobby Abreu deal even if Abreu hasn't been the offensive weapon the Yankees had hoped for. But their deal making has been limited b/c they have seldom had the talent to do it. The Yankees biggest acquisitions have been Free Agents (ARod notwithstanding).

Of course I am perfectly happy with other teams wanting the world from the Yankees.

Blmeanie, it is a good deal if the rumor is true. Crisp is so cheap, I'm not sure covering half of his salary is necessary (I know you were being facetious).

Mitchell, you are probably right. Many mothers have said just that! It is probably just a ploy and no we wait to see if Hankenstein takes the bait.

Tim, I think many are selling the Red Sox package short. Obviously there is a much room for debate here but I would argue that Melky isn't much more talented than Coco Crisp if at all, but he is cheaper.

Tabata might be better than Lowrie, but his .796 at A and .763 OPS at A+ haven't been that impressive. He is young, so I'll give you that arguement. Lester/Kennedy let's call it a draw. But then you throw in Masterson and it sways the deal towards the Red Sox offer. 4 players vs. 3 players. Masterson and Lowrie will be top 10 in the system (per Baseball America) and Lester already was a top 10 and Crisp is a servicable CF. Just my 2 cents of course.

To your larger point, I think keeping your young guns isn't a bad idea. In fact, if the Red Sox aren't able to pull this one off, hanging onto the prospects/players wouldn't be such a bad thing.

Andy, I agree with you on the Red Sox package but throw in Horne and Yanks package is clearly better.

My point with Melky vs. Crisp is exactly that. Player wise there isn't much difference but Twins would control Melky longer and cheaper.

I really think the Twins leverage isn't great. Sabathia and Sheets are in walk years.

I'm starting to think he's not going to be moved this offseason b/c if he is, its going to be a deal closer to value we're talking about now than Hughes, Cano, Melky or Buchholz, Lester, Pedroia.

Tim, I missed you mentioning Horne, my bad. Yes, that evens things up a bit.

You bring up an interesting point in Sheets, Sabathia and I believe Peavy (don't quote me on that). But history has shown of late that teams, even small market teams, will make the best attempt to sign stud aces to long term deals or trade them, not wait until they go to free agency. Barry Zito is the last "big name" to go to free agency, but so far, so bad.

Back to Santana: You say he goes via free agency. I think he gets traded either before or during the winter meetings.

I didn't mention Horne in the original message so actually its on me but I think we both "get the point."

That said, it comes down to what they can get for Santana. In the end, it may not be enough to be worth dealing him. If its the Boston package or the NY package, maybe they want to give Liriano/Santana a whirl with Morneau, Mauer, Young.

Peavy is up after 2009. I think its hard to imagine CC & Sheets NOT going to FA and CC will be younger than Santana.

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