Posada is Returning
The deal is apparently official, 4 years/$52.4 million, or $100,000 more a year than Damon or Matsui got.
Look, it is ridiculous to give a 36-year old catcher a four-year deal. But, the fact is the Yankees were totally boxed in here. Who else was going to catch in 2008 for this team? The fact is, if you want to see the Yankees contend in 2008, they need Posada behind the plate. Take his bat out of an already weakened lineup and things would get really ugly.
Now, the Yankees are probably going to really regret this contract in 2010 and 2011. Baseball Prospectus projected Posada to still be above replacement value in 2010 and out of baseball in 2011. Those projections were before this season, so they will be revised upwards, but he will not be worth $13.1 million in those years. The question is, how long will Posada be able to catch and how long will the Yankees want him to? There is a huge incentive for the Yankees to protect their investment now and that means getting Posada out from behind the plate as much as possible. But, shift his bat to first or DH and it becomes less of a value. If Posada can't catch on at least a part time basis in 2010 and 2011, he will be one of the most overpaid players in the game.
Hopefully, the Yankees don't view this signing as taking care of the catching position for the next four years. Posada's successor needs to be found and soon. Getting a guy who can effectively fill in behind the plate for 40 games or so in 2008 is a smart move and Jose Molina doesn't fit that description. The Yankees need to take some of the young pitching and turn it into a young catcher. Let him learn from Posada and in 2010 or 2011, when Jorge's knees give out, he can step in.
And, while I sit here and gripe about the deal, I have to admit I am pretty happy to see Posada returning. He is one of the easiest guys on the team to root for and I am glad that he will be a lifetime Yankee.
Comments
What exactly are you advocating when you talk about turning young pitching into a catcher? That is, who would you be willing to give up, and just what are you hoping to get?
I realize the farm isn't all that deep at catcher, but it is getting better. We'll see how Romine does this year, and if Montero can stay behind the plate, he could be something pretty special. I would have thought that a major upside of resigning Posada is that we cover our lack of upper level catching prospects and give those two some time to develop and prove themselves. I don't see the need to move any of the better pitchers for catching now.
Are you writing those two guys off?
Posted by: NC Saint | November 13, 2007 01:48 AM |
Spot on Peter. The problem with catcher is, it can be a very quick decline. I'd prefer we get a defense first catcher than a young guy who may not handle pitchers well for 2008.
Posted by: tim | November 13, 2007 02:44 AM |
Peter,
I can almost guarantee that Cash knows the clock is ticking on Jorge's knees. On the money side of this deal? His signing pales in comparison to the dollars wasted on Giambi.
And yes, the seeming excess we've accumulated in young arms can probably net us some decent catching prospects in the high minors.
One problem solved - now about the bullpen/closer situation and an upgrade at 3B ...
Posted by: Mitchell![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 13, 2007 09:24 AM
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NC Saint- I am not writing those guys off, but they have just broken into professional baseball. The jump from the Gulf Coast League to the majors is a huge one. On the plus side, both of them profile as future big leaguers, though there are questions about where Montero ends up defenisvely. The problem in my mind is will they get here in time before Posada gets too old to catch? As Tim said in his comment below yours, it's a quick decline. I don't mind waiting to see if these guys are the future, but I would like to have a comeptent backup in place just in case. It doesn't have to be Salty, and I am not advocating trading one of the big three, but how about something like MItchell says, a "decent catching prospect in the high minors?" The Angels have a ton of catching talent in the minors, maybe they would trade one of those guys for an arm?
And, while we are at it, we should probably throw Cervelli into the conversation. He is probably the closest to the Bronx right now.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 13, 2007 10:39 AM
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