Lowell Talk
Wow, this ARod saga is getting out of hand. Glad I'm not a Yankee fan. Talk about being conflicted.
Of greater importance to Red Sox fans is the status of Mike Lowell. WHDH TV 7 is reporting that 4 teams have offered Lowell a 4 year deal with total money in the $55mm - $60mm range. WHDH says the teams are the Angels, Braves, Cardinals and Yankees. The Yankees want him to play 1b.
Now if the Red Sox really want to re-sign Lowell, they have to go to 4 years. If the reports are true that Boston has offered 3 years, $36mm, then a 4th year would drive that to $48mm, below the range listed above, but probably enough to get him to sign.
I have no idea which way the Red Sox will go should they lose Lowell. But the key is, despite what I am suggesting, giving him a 4th year, the Red Sox have a track record on limiting the length on contracts. Just ask Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez. Both the Damon and Martinez decisions were widely criticized in Boston at the time, but both have to be considered the right move. Pedro had a good 2005, but was an average pitcher in 2006 before undergoing surgery missing the rest of 2006 and most of 2007. Damon gave the Yankees a good 2006, but struggled in 2007 and ended up in leftfield. His power numbers aren't what you want from a leftfielder.
Of course it will be sad if Lowell goes as he was such an important part of the team, but that is baseball and you can be sure the Red Sox front office has set a value on Lowell and there is little wiggle-room. I was about to say I wish they'd done the same with J.D. Drew, but that grand slam was huge.
I am finding it difficult to find much news on the Lowell negotiations leading me to believe there isn't much action between the Red Sox and Lowell camps at present. The further leads me to believe that the Red Sox are sticking to their guns.
Comments
Think about those four teams for a minute. We know what the Yankees are up to (see my post from earlier tonight), but what about St. Louis, Atlanta and the Angels?
With Atlanta that would mean Chipper Jones is moving to the outfield I guess?
With St. Louis, that would mean they must have a trade lined up for Scott Rolen or they are ready to eat a huge contract?
The Angels make a little more sense, but where is Figgins going to play?
I am not saying the report is wrong, but it would seem that signing Lowell would open up a lot more questions for those teams than answers.
Posted by: Peter
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November 15, 2007 12:41 AM
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I agree on the Braves, Cards and Yanks. I have heard the Cards are willing to listen to offers for Rolen and why wouldn't they, he can't stay healthy. With the Braves, yes, they'd need to move Jones either off the team or to another position and I don't know why he'd want to go to NY if they want him at 1b. He has never played a game there and one could argue he is better than ARod with the glove (better fld% and range/9). So why would he change positions when he is the better 3b? Makes no sense. At least I hope.
As for the Angels, Figgins has always been the super utility guy. He can play OF, or any of the infield positions (save for 1b, but he could probably play there too). So Figgins moving to another position wouldn't surprise me especially since he is a below average 3b defensively.
Posted by: andy
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November 15, 2007 09:02 AM
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Mike Lowell:
- somewhat loyal
- likes playing in boston
- 33 or 34 yrs old
- has had one giant contract already in career
- seems less inclined to go elsewhere
Make him a 3 yr deal for $45M and be done with it.
Conceed on the dollar value and have him conceed on the years.
or
front load a 4yr $55M deal where the last year is 'only' for $8M or something like that.
The value will be had in the first 2 years and decline most likely, pay him that way.
Posted by: blmeanie | November 15, 2007 11:58 AM |
Blmeanie,
I say keep the 3 years, but perhaps increase the dollars. I would not front load a $55mm contract as the present value of money means it would be a contract worth more than $55mm spread evenly over 4 years. Any player wants his money up front.
Your list is interesting b/c you mention some important things. He is 33/34, had a big contract already and he likes Boston. If the guy retired today, he is financially set, but he wants more money, can't blame him, and the question for Lowell is: how much do I like Boston? Is grabbing the 4th year and the extra $ more important than his and his family's happiness?
Posted by: andy
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November 15, 2007 12:25 PM
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Everybody wants to make as much as they can.
Some need that extra year to live despite it being "grotesque" to the non-athlete. I don't picture Mike Lowell having wasted away millions but you never know.
Perhaps he runs a dog fighting...oh, never mind..
The original point about Pedro and Damon did seem right on. Both cases decline happened earlier rather than later.
The only difference is the skills Lowell brings are less likely to break down quickly.
i.e. fielding, his range abilities are not based on speed, but instincts and reactions. Reactions could slow but he is a smart fielder if that makes sense. Hitting, while in Fenway, his ability to hit is gaps, not overwhelming power. I see him being a contributor in 3+ years.
What I am saying is there appears to me less risk in a 4th year with Lowell than with Pedro or Damon based on their skills were their arm (Pedro) and their legs (Damon).
Sign him and make it a happy Thanksgiving week for all...
Posted by: blmeanie | November 15, 2007 02:29 PM |
Hey, the Red Sox just raised ticket prices 9%, pay the guy!
Lowell battled cancer, I think that has to change your outlook on things and I can't blame him for wanting to get as much for as long as he wants. As perfect a fit as Boston may appear to be for him, he has played in New York and Florida, maybe he liked them equally as much or more?
Posted by: Peter
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November 15, 2007 07:50 PM
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Peter, him having cancer changes things for me or him? I didn't get your point on that one.
Posted by: andy
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November 15, 2007 10:22 PM
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For him, I imgine it really changes how he views the world.
Posted by: Peter
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November 15, 2007 11:46 PM
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That makes sense. So does it make him want to grab more $? I would guess, and I may be WAY off on this, but money, while important, takes a distant backseat to other things. Mike Lowell isn't worried about being able to enjoy the pleasures of life and if family is now in focus, you'd think he'd take the deal that offered the best quality of life. And if we are to believe his statements, that is here in Boston (in my case Brookline). Again, having now gone through what he has gone, I am just guessing.
Posted by: andy
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November 16, 2007 12:21 AM
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See, I think that's exactly it. You define the best qulity of life as being in Boston, but you might be biased on that. Lowell grew up in Florida and I believe he still lives there. Maybe he likes warm weather, maybe he wants to be closer to home. I don't know, but I guess I just don't see the reason that he would be pulled to Boston out of loyalty. I think if all things were equal he would probably sign with Boston, but if they are not, I would bet he is completely undecided.
Posted by: Peter
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November 16, 2007 12:52 AM
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I would agree with almost all of this except Johnny Damon. When he came to the yankees in '06 it was his best year EVER as a MLB player, not just good. True, in '07 he sucked, but that wasnt known in '06. So, to let a guy go, and then have him have is best year ever says alot!!! GO Yanks, Go A_ROD!!!!!
Posted by: Gerard Beebe | November 16, 2007 06:00 PM |
Gerard, I would personally take Damon's 2000 as he had more runs, rbi, sbs, a higher avg, obp and slg than he did in 2006. Damon did have more HR's in 2006 than 2000.
Regardless, we cannot properly judge Damon's contract after just 2 years. I was probably jumping the gun, but his downturn in 2007 was of concern and the fact he cannot play CF anymore really has to be concerning. The Yankees are paying him $14mm a year to be a fast, CF with a good glove. Now he is just an average corner outfielder.
He's the Yankees JD Drew. Same #s in 2007 and same salary.
Posted by: andy
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November 16, 2007 07:11 PM
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