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Ah, thats better Peter. I agree Pettite is key and a 6 man rotation makes more and more sense. I do think 180 innings from Hughes and Kennedy isn't too much to expect but Joba is probably not at that level yet.

Not quite sure I agree that the hitting going to be THAT much weaker. Jeter, Abreu, Matsui, Damon and Giambi all had difficult years. Maybe its a trend, maybe its just a down year. I'm not quite ready to pull the sheet over Abreu and Matsui eyes yet. Sure A-rod and Posada probably don't come close to matching the numbers from last year but Betemit/Duncan will outproduce Mienky/Phillips. Cano & Melky, well they are young.

I agree that if they sign Rowand, Cabrera is expendable. But wouldn't you'd really rather deal one of their 3 aging outfielders (Damon/Matsui/Abreu)? Damon has a limited no trade and I think they can trade Abreu.

Think about an outfield of, say, Damon-Rowand-Cabrera. Three centerfielders. Or an outfield of Matsui-Rowand-Cabrera would be around and perform at peak for at least another 3 years given how Matsui takes care of himself.

As for pitchers, I'd stockpile some reclamation projects that can be bought cheap and see if one works out. I'd put Redman in that category -- he's a crafty junkballer who can still pitch. And Kris Benson absolutely killed the Yankees; he can't be all bad. If you can get them cheap, do it.

Tim- I think they could all be very productive in 2008, it's just that it's a risk. Not a terrible one, but I wouldn't mind adding a little more offense to protect against the downside.

Corey-

That outfield certainly has potential. The reason I said trade Melky is I think he is the most marketable. He's young and cheap while the others aren't.

I really like watching Rowand, he kind of reminds me of Lenny Dykstra, pre steroids.

I agree with Tim about the offensive numbers. Too many players had terrible springs to look at their final numbers and think they're representative. Damon and Abreu in particular picked it up after the AS break. The one guy I have written off is Giambi, new shoes or no new shoes.

And Tim? Agreed - again- that if Andy is back, then we have a possibly decent 6 man rotation. The one place where I still see a glaring problem for 08 is the bullpen. Yup, we've got some young arms in AAA who might, repeat might be able to fill in, but we still need "more of a selection" from which to choose.

Peter, your moderate plan is how I would approach the next two years were I Cash or Hankenstein.

Mitchell, I agree the bullpen is going to be a HUGE question mark but I think throwing several arms at the problem and keeping the ones that stick is the best way to proceed. Middle relievers are always so hit and miss.

I really hope Pettitte comes back.

Peter -

Don't be so sure about the innings caps of IPK / Joba / Hughes. Between the minors and the majors, Kennedy pitched 160 innings this year - and didn't pitch through most of September. He can go more than 180, if necessary. Hughes could potentially be up around 200, as well, considering that he threw 146 two years and would have been around 170 this year if he didn't have the hamstring injury (...which might be a good excuse to cap him at 180). Joba threw 120-ish innings this year between the majors and minors, but he also threw a lot of innings the previous year between college and the winter instructional leagues.

In other words, while I hope and pray that Pettitte comes back, the world will not collapse because he's not there. I think Cash is smart enough to find a nice, safe league average pitcher, along the lines of a Jeff Suppan, to take innings this year.

Of course, I've said the same thing about first base, and it's been TERRIBLE for a few years.

Peter, totally agree about Rowand. Plus, hes a righty and we could use another one, even with The Third Basemen back.

And, come to think of it, the Twins might need a young centerfielder soon...alright I'll come back to Earth now.

Tim, ditto on Pettitte. Times two.

I think both Hughes and Joba will be capped around 150 innings this year. Joba was injured in college and that's why he fell to the end of the first round in the draft. Hughes has had several arm injuries in his progress towards the majors. Kennedy on the other hand is good to go a full 30 starts. Also, assuming the Yankees make the playoffs those guys are going to be exhausted if they have already hit their innings cap for the year. I think Leiber would be great to have back. He eats innings and is solid if healthy and then we can have the 6 man rotation, which would give the perfect distribution of innigns to Hughes, Chamberlain, and Mussina.

Peter, let me get this straight:

2007 (ERA)
Wang (3.70)
Pettitte (4.05)
Mussina (5.15)
Clemens (4.18)
Hughes (4.46)
Igawa (6.25)

Those guys made the majority of starts in 2007. Clippard, DeSalvo and Rasner each made 6 and a bunch of other guys had 2-3 starts each.

So you are thinking that this:

2008
Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Joba
Kennedy

Is likely to allows fewer runs? Better yet, if Pettitte isn't re-signed, and you fill his role with either Mussina or a Lieber type that that group will allow fewer runs ("a reasonable proposition" using your words).

I will give you Hughes, he pitched 70 innings and showed a few things. Kennedy pitched very well but in a very small sample size and Joba? He was dominating as a MR, but as a starter? Tough to call with the whole "second time through the line-up" notion.

Look, 3 rookies in the rotation is risky (I think it is the right move b/c they are all highly touted and you have to do it eventually) and to guess that they will hold the opposition to fewer runs (with the bullpen and defense's help of course) is a stretch. Not to mention you have tons of payroll hanging around the bench in Igawa and Mussina. Ughh. If Pettitte isn't back, now you are really in trouble and the idea that fewer runs allowed is achievable is gone...unless you trade for Santana without giving up all the young guns.

Help me out. For additional reading on this subject, check out this Yahoo piece by Tim Brown (former Oakland Raider): http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ap2bB_Vy8bBCSmmZoYcICIoRvLYF?slug=ti-yanks111907&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Andy, fair points and maybe you are right but I think its very reasonable to expect Wang, Hughes, Kennedy to outperform what we got from Wang Hughes Moose last year. In your own numbers Hughes' 4.46 is better than Igawa, Desalvo, Clippard, Rasner, Wright. That is improvement in about 20 starts over last year. Joba could struggle in his first year in the majors, but there is nothing to say that he will get tagged when he gets figured out his second time through the line-up. He has [arguably] the best stuff in baseball right now. Gammons thinks so and numbers back that up.

Yeah, what anonymous said.

Peter/anonymous, Joba has great stuff. But his sample size at the MLB level is limited. 24 innings.

I think the world of Gammons, and ran into him 2 weekends ago in my neighborhood banking at the Brookline Village Sovereign Bank. Gave him a polite nod to which he flipped me the bird...Anyway, Joba does have great stuff, but while there is no data to suggest 2nd time through is a big deal, you certainly can't say so since we haven't seen it yet and MLB hitters are good at getting fooled, but then making adjustments.

I guess my point is that with 3 rookies, the Yankees are likely to experience some excitement, but also some growing pains and to think Hughes, Joba and Kennedy will all perform better than the guy/guys they are replacing is being optimistic.

Andy

I think Kennedy might struggle, but Joba would not be one I worry about. Look at his numbers in the minors this year (almost all as a starter) 135K's in 88IP. He was a starter until July 31st and for years before that. He has four pitches and really only threw two in the majors last year. Nothing is definite, but this guy has the tools and makeup of a dominant starter. I would be more worried about an injury than anything else.