Contigency Plan
This post could also be titled "Oh crap, we lost Lowell."
Seriously, what if Mike Lowell says no to Boston and ends up in Florida (once Miguel Cabrera is traded)? Boston will have a hole to fill. Let's eliminate one idea right away. There should be no moving Kevin Youkilis to 3b...unless St. Louis offers up Albert Pujols. Why move a gold glove player to another position? It doesn't make sense. So with that in mind, who are the options?
Miguel Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez
Chad Spann
Cabrera: An outstanding talent, Cabrera is only 24 yet has produced: 313/.388/.542 with 138 HRs, 523 RBI in 5 seasons in the majors. The knock on Cabrera is he can't play D. Compared to Mike Lowell, that is probably true, but otherwise he is an average major league 3b based on errors and range factors. He has a career .954 fld% compared to a league average of the same. His range is a 2.52 vs a league average of 2.70. Lower yes, but not by much. So giving him the benefit of the doubt, he is the same as league average. The main issue with Cabrera is his weight. He is listed as 6'2" 185 on baseball-reference.com, Firstinning.com has him at 210. But seeing him today, he appears much heavier. I won't try to guess, but the key is his weight has increased dramatically since his debut. Consensus: He will be expensive and there is some concern his performance will decline as his waistline grows.
ARod: Best position player in baseball. He is an amazing offensive talent and can more than hold his own defensively at 3b or SS. That we know. The questions about ARod generally revolve around clubhouse presence, post-season performance and value. ARod has a questionable reputation amongst his teammates, has never produced in the post-season and presents a horrible value. A horrible value if a team were to give him $35mm a season. That is too much money for one player if not because it takes up a large % of resources but also because it creates a class issue within the team. I suppose there are classes anyway, but he automatically would become the uber personality based on income, not necessarily accomplishment. Buyer beware.
Spann: The Red Sox don't have a 3b ready to fill in in their farm system. Chad Spann is the Pawtucket 3b, but he doesn't project to be in Boston in 2008. Keep looking.
The more I look at this, the more it makes sense to sign Lowell. Of course there are plenty of 3b's in baseball and Boston might very well have some trade ideas, but those scenarios are too many to discuss here. We will probably find out their decision/course of action soon.
Comments
Why wouldn't you move Youkilis since he can play third? First is a much easier position to fill and Ortiz could at help out there.
Cabrera is 240 easy.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 12:27 AM
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Andy, I agree that moving Youk to 3rd isn't ideal, but neither would I rule it out. I'd be willing to give Cabrera a chance if it came to that. Were he to see his fellow young players Pedroia, Papelbon and Ellsbury sporting world series ring, just might be the motivation he needs to take his game and physical conditioning to the next level. Peer pressure can do wonders. Agree that A-Rod isn't the answer considering the cost. On another note, am surprised you haven't weighed in on the Cy Young results. Do we have reason to cry foul??
Posted by: wade | November 14, 2007 09:49 AM |
Wade, I have no problem with the Cy Young vote. It is a regular season award and Sabathia had a great season. He pitched more innings, had a better ERA, fewer walks, and he really only lost in the Win column. 19 wins for Sabathia, 20 for Beckett. A 1 win difference is small overall and largely decided by the offense. So I have no problem with it.
Posted by: andy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 10:33 AM
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Wade and Peter, you both mention moving Youk to 3rd. I guess my take on that is Youk is probably going to be a better 1b than a 3b. Why do I say that? Well 1b is easier and he is the best defensive player in the AL at 1b, so moving him to 3b probabaly means a downgrade at 1b defensively. Even if Youk plays a good 3b, it won't be as good as his 1b play.
That being said, it probably is wrong of me to dismiss it out of hand. I would need to be comfortable with the new 1b before moving Youk. But the biggest reason I elected not to move him to 3b was b/c it made writing this post much easier as I didn't have to analyze 1b replacements. I'm kidding, maybe.
As for Cabrera, I'd love to see him here, but I don' think guys like Ellsbury, Buccholz and Lester would be his teammates as they would be the trade package. He is going to be very expensive.
Peter, yes, Cabrera is my weight, minues 2 inches. A big boy (and I'm saying that as a fat dude).
I am excited about the other ideas the Red Sox FO has about this situation. We might end up with a low level replacement, or they might pull a blockbuster deal. Whatever the answer, I want something to happen soon.
Posted by: andy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 10:39 AM
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I think you need to be careful with saying "he is the best defensive player in the AL at 1b". He won the gold glove, that doesn't mean he is the best in the league (see Jeter, Derek winner of three of these things at short) Youkilis is very good at first, but he was also above average at third. And since firstbasemen usually hit more than thirdbasemen, his bat becomes more of a plus at third. I just wouldn't get too hung up on his defense at first as a reason to keep him there.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 11:36 AM
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Peter, I wasn't trying to overstate his value at 1b, but based on this past year, it is hard to argue anyone is better than he is at 1b. At firstbase, in my opinion, gone are the days of great defensive 1bs. JT Snow was great but now more than ever, you have sluggers who do not play great D: Giambi, Ortiz, Howard, Fielder. I'm sure I will regret asking, but who is better in the AL?
Posted by: andy![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 12:00 PM
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I fully get the clubhouse impact of A-Rod and the class system that would exist.
Fact : Manny has one year left in Boston
Fact : that frees up $18+ M after next year
Fact : replacing Manny in LF with a cheaper option that can play is evidently easier than replacing Lowell for one year then having to replace Manny on top of that.
Opinion : I am switching position, I would sign A-Rod, strickly out of arrogance to see if they could repeat with A-Rod and say it isn't A-Rod why he has never won prior...
So LF and 3B this year was $27+M of salary, right
If they sign Lowell (which I still would prefer but then you gotta find a dominant hitter to replace Manny next year) then assume 2008 contract for LF and 3B =$29-$30M
See, the economics suggest get A-Rod for $30-$32 and get an uber prospect from somebody in a trade that will make little to no money for a few years...or sign a free agent OF next year in the $5-8M range.
Posted by: blmeanie | November 14, 2007 12:03 PM |
I haven't given it much thought to be honest, because it isn't my point. My point is you shoulnd't close down your options. I would say on reputation you have to consider Mientkiewicz or Casey. By sight, Morneau looks pretty good. Numbers, I haven't bothered to check.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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November 14, 2007 12:58 PM
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