YankeesRedSox.com

According to this, Phil Hughes is now part of the package to land Santana.

Now, if I am the Twins, I turn to Boston and say ok, now you guys have to give us Buchholz or Ellsbury. If they do, I turn around and say to the Yankees, ok now you top that offer.

That's the problem with this negotiation in my mind, the Twins control it all and the longer they draw it out, the better it is for them. So, if I am the Yankees, I set a deadline. You tell the Twins, this is our best offer and not only are we not improving it, we are pulling it by Monday.

I am pretty torn about this rumored offer. Someone once said the best way to judge a fair trade is if it hurts on both sides. This one would hurt, Hughes, Melky and something else. Part of me wonders if we all overvalue Hughes because for awhile there, he was our only prospect. Think about it, in early 2005 most people knew about Hughes and didn't know about Cano and Wang. That's the one thought that comforts me. Anything you read tells you about the wealth of arms in the system right now. Most experts say the Yankees are the deepest team when it comes to pitching depth. And, the Yankees are getting the guy who is generally considered the best in the business at the age of 28.

I think the problem is we have all learned these past few years to be wary of pitchers coming to town. Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano.....I am sure I am not the only one who thought Javier Vazquez coming in at the age of 27 off of a dominating 2003 would be amazing and look how that turned out. I think those collective experiences make us look at this trade with a wary eye instead of saying, we are getting an ace!

Who knows if it happens or doesn't, but it certainly sounds as if the Yankees have upped the stakes tonight.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

Kudos to Jimmy over at MVN for being on this story early and here's a link to a newspaper source, but it sounds like the Yankees are going to sign Mark Loretta.

Now Loretta is certainly an upgrade at the utility position over a Miguel Cairo, but I am confused over this move. Now maybe the Yankees are getting smart and are going to "only" carry 11 pitchers, but if they don't, someone has to go. Figure a bench right now of Giambi, Betemit, Duncan and Molina allows 12 pitchers to be carried. Now, I have no complaints with carrying 11 pitchers, it just surprises me. If they did that, you would have great coverage at all positions with the addition of Loretta, but isn't he very similar to Wilson Betemit?

You can also go to the darker implications of this move like Jimmy did. Is this a prelude to Cano being thrown into the Santana mix? I'm not sure, Loretta isn't exactly a spring chicken and the Yankees don't usually make that type of move without a replacement in mind. The 2009 free agent class isn't bustling with an obvious candidate at second and I don't think Alberto Gonzalez has shown that he will hit enough that you can count on him. But, I think that if they sign Loretta, it means there will be another shoe to drop. Let's hope it's not Cano.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

In case you missed it, Jorge Posada's new contract was announced today. Among the quotes he offered were:

When asked about Johan Santana, ""We need a No. 1. I would love to have him."

When asked about Andy Pettitte, "Right now, he's leaning toward retirement. I've been talking to him. I try to call him every week. It's tough. He's got a tough decision to make."

So, with two questions he further confirmed the Twins' suspicions that the Yankees really need/want Santana and he gave an update on Pettitte that makes the Yankees look even more desperate. Couldn't someone from the Yankees have prepped him ahead of time and gotten him to answer the questions like this?

When asked about Johan Santana, "He's a wonderful pitcher and I would love to be his teammate, but we have to make a trade that makes sense for the whole club."

When asked about Andy Pettitte, "I talk to him frequently and I don't know what he is going do. Most of all, I think he needs some time to think about things before deciding."

I know, Jorge was just being honest, but a little less candor may have helped things.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

Former major leaguer and current columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Charley "Shooter" Walters is reporting that the Red Sox have moved to the front of the line in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and the players involved aren't who you think.

Walters source? "A little birdie."

The deal is focusing on Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowry (sic) and Justin Masterson in return for Santana.

To be sure, that is a bunch of talent, but it isn't Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Lowrie is at AAA, Masterson AA, Crisp the former starting CF in Boston and Lester is in Boston (like you didn't know that). Minnesota would be getting a starting CF, a lefty starter with good upside in Lester, a SS with a good glove and some pop and a big sinkerballer in Masterson who projects to be a Derek Lowe type of arm.

Of course the next step would be signing Santana, who has a no-trade clause, and who is thought not to be interested in coming to Boston. Players have said that before and usually get some cash thrown at them to make Boston a more enjoyable place to play.

Johan Santana - I don't like Boston.
Theo Epstein - Here's $10 million more dollars.
JS - I love Boston.

It's a common negotiating tact and one that shouldn't be a stumbling block. Of course, I have no idea if Charley Walters is reliable. He apparently broke the recent Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal, so maybe there is something to this.

My take? I do this deal in a heartbeat. The part that brings me most concern is the size and length of contract Santana would want. Reports are 6 years, $150mm. I just posted yesterday that long-term pitcher deals can be disastrous (Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle) but occasionally are great (Pedro Martinez's Red Sox deal, Randy Johnson's original Arizona deal, Greg Maddux deal with Atlanta). So there is big time risk.

I also pointed out last week that the Red Sox currently have a relatively low payroll of around $121mm. If they added $25mm in Santana and subtracted Crisp at $5mm, it is a net result of adding $20mm or so to the payroll. Peter illustrated, however, that there is a higher cost to a Santana deal in that you have to factor in the luxury tax. In Peter's piece, he mentioned that the Yankees have a higher cost because they'd need to replace Cabrera (if he were included) in CF and maybe a few other parts and their tax might be higher, but you get idea.

For Boston, this makes more sense as you have a min. cost CF in Ellsbury ready to step in, Santana replaces Lester in the rotation and Lowrie and Masterson are prospects. I can't believe I am saying this, but I make this deal. Bring it on!

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (0)

Maybe I am reading the tea leaves incorrectly here, but I think this deal would greatly lessen the chances Minnesota trades Santana. Are they willing to subtract a second starter after trading away Garza?

And, consider the addition of Young on the Twins' offense. Mauer-Young-Morneau in the middle of the lineup looks pretty good I think you have definitely made up for the loss of Hunter. With Liriano coming back, why wouldn't the Twins at least try and compete in 2008?

I would also be remiss if I didn't point out that Tampa suddenly getting wise about pitching is not a great development for the Yankees. If they add Garza to Shields and Kazmir, you suddenly have the potential for a very good 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation. Add Percival to the bullpen and all the young hitters and Tampa won't be so easy to beat up on anymore.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN's Rob Neyer had a semi-thorough review of agent Scott Boras's big deals over the past 10 years. Neyer's conclusion? Buyer beware. Read this quickly as it is an ESPN Insider article that is being made available for free for some reason.

Basically Neyer took the top Boras client signing over the past 10 years and looked at the player's 2 seasons prior and seasons since the signing. It is 7 bad, 3 good. And ARod qualifies as a good signing, except that Neyer points out that the Texas Rangers (the deal Neyer reviewed for this study) was good from a statistical standpoint for ARod, but not for the Rangers as a team as they remained bad. And for whatever reason, they felt it a good idea to trade ARod and assume $51mm of his contract. Does that suggest anything?

Have the Yankees courted 10 years of mediocre play? Obviously each contract is different as is each player. But I'll stick with my guns and say that when you pay a player so much more than the next guy, it causes problems. The Red Sox signing of Manny Ramirez 7 years ago might be the only exception. Why? Because Manny is a unique personality. I think it is dumb luck actually as Manny does anything he can to avoid the spotlight and attention usually afforded very rich sports types. Maybe I'm kidding myself.

ARod is going to make at least $27mm a year for the next 10 years and has incentives that will pay him, based on personal accomplishments, another $30mm or so. Scott Boras gets top dollar for his clients (I don't know how much he was involved in this deal, but he already made ARod a ton previously) and while it makes the player rich, it usually makes the team regret. Usually.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBacks (0)

I just heard an interview with Buster Olney on ESPN Radio in New York and it centered around Santana. Olney says that he sees no way Santana signs for less than 6 years/$25 million per. With his no-trade clause, he is going to demand that salary before he approves a deal anywhere. The Twins have apparently talked to the Yankees about a package of Hughes, Cabrera and (interestingly) Austin Jackson and the Red Sox about a package of Ellsbury, Buckholz and Lester.

Olney felt that between the price and the prospects, neither team would make a deal and the only team he could see pulling the trigger on this trade was the Mets. The problem is, the Mets don't have the same level of prospects and Olney wasn't sure Minnesota would take a lesser package centering around Milledge and Pelfry for Santana. His ultimate conclusion was that Santana wasn't going anywhere.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

That's right Yankees' fans, Santana is going to cost a whole lot more than the $20-$25 million a year he is supposedly seeking.

First off you have to pay Santana and don't forget to add luxury tax dollars to the deal so your $20-$25 million becomes $24-$30 million a season (Yanks get dinged at 40%)

Then, you need to replace Melky Cabrera in center since he is probably the one guy guaranteed to be in the package. Tori Hunter just got $18 million a year from the Angels. The Yankees are not going to go the Bubba Crosby route here and I don't see Damon switching back to center, especially with health concerns surrounding Giambi and Matsui. So, I would expect them to turn around and sign either Rowand or Jones. That probably costs around $15-$18 ($18-$21.6 million in luxury tax money).

When I look at numbers like that, this trade makes absolutely no sense. Why not just wait until 2009 when he is a free agent? You would have kept your three top prospects, finally determined if Melky is the answer in center (this could be a downside too) and think about the payroll. After 2008, you can subtract the contracts of Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, Pavano, Farnsowrth and Pettitte if he returns. That's between $64.5 million and $80.5 million depending on Andy. Sure, he could get traded and sign an extension before you get a chance to bid, but that would make the most sense to me.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBacks (0)

The Winter Meetings start a week from today in Nashville, TN. After some fun filled joy at Opryland (is that still open?), expect the Red Sox front office folk to work on improving the 2008 squad.

Buster Olney had an interesting take on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Let's say the Twins are able to piece together a trade for Santana, well Santana has a full no-trade clause. Santana is due to be a free agent after the 2008 season. He can veto any deal thus gaining leverage. If he puts the kibosh on it, he can either demand a greater contract extension from the acquiring team, or simply wait until after the 2008 season to become a free agent and the skies the limit.

Word on the street is that Santana is asking for 6 years, $150mm. Wow. That's more than any pitcher has ever earned (Roger Clemens beat that in 2007, but it was prorated). Great, you've just traded for a pitcher that is going to ask for $25mm a season. Oh yeah, and don't forget, in order to get him, you had to give up 2 of your best prospects (maybe 3).

With all of that in mind, I say the Red Sox should act the part of interested trade partner, but unless Santana wants less money and the Twins less prospects, stick with what they have. I think Yankee fan, on Peter's side, Mitchell had this figured out last week when he stated in the comments that Santana is going to be a free agent in 2008. I now agree.

So Theo Epstein, kick the tires, but don't pull the trigger. While Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz are largely unproven over a 162 game season, I like their chances. Even if they both flop, you still have roughly $25mm not spent on Santana to deploy.

To lend further credence to my argument, Olney reported yesterday (via Peter Gammons) that the Twins are asking for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. That's a starting pitcher with # 1 stuff potential, a starting centerfielder and a young centerfield prospect in Jackson. That's expensive. But if it isn't involving Joba and Kennedy, the Yankees might bite. Obviously NY can afford the contract, but they might not be willing to part with the talent. A comparable deal for Boston would be Buccholz, Ellsbury and a lesser prospect. Too expensive.

No word on where Coco Crisp will be traded if anywhere. There is a chance Boston will hang on to Crisp and trade him when the offer is right. This might make for a grumpy Crisp, but he did handle his playoff demotion well and I would expect he'd do the same if this scenario played out.

With 21 of 25 rosters spots filled, the Red Sox have committed $121,110,000 in payroll for 2008 (my calculation). The last 4 spots aren't likely to be more than $1mm each (and could be less if filled by rookies). Additionally, if Crisp ($4.75mm) gets moved, it might even go down. This is a dramatic decrease from 2007's $143,026,214 as taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. This means the Red Sox are either happy at this level (John Henry's business has struggled and his new home was really expensive and shark fin soup is tough to get) or they have plans for additional talent acquisition. That is some serious cash to play with if the latter scenario plays out. Your thoughts? Do the Red Sox stand pat or go out and acquire (who cares how, trade, free agency, etc) a mega talent to bolster the roster? I say they stand pat.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

Murray Chass of the Times has the details on the incentives that have held up the biggest contract in professional sports.

I have to say, I hate Curt Schilling, I think the guy is about the biggest ass in baseball, but you have to give the guy a ton of credit. When he went to Boston, he negotiated a bonus based on winning the World Series. Considering the losing streak that franchise was on at the time, that was a gutsy bet. And yes, he backed it up in spades.

Compare that to this, $6 million for each of five individual accomplishments. The problem is, you have to fault the Yankees too. As the story says, "He will get the marketing money in exchange for making certain appearances linked to his home run milestones over and above what players are required by their contracts to do." That means that the Yankees are going to go to Steiner Sports and market the hell out of this. You can expect bases, bats, balls, lineup cards, jerseys, probably even the cup he wore, to be marketed by the team after each milestone home run. Fans will shell out big bucks and basically that money will be divided into two parts.

My question to Hankenstein is this- what is the ultimate goal here, money or championships? This contract has me confused and disgusted.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Hopefully you are still getting over your turkey hangover, but there are a couple of baseball related things we need to look at.

First and foremost, is the news that Santana is probably on the block. It's going to be awfully hard for the Yankees to stay out of the bidding and if they can somehow get him without giving up two of the three young pitcher, I would strongly consider it. Would the Twins accept Kennedy, Cabrera, Horne and Whelan? I would find out.

Next, the market on relief pitching is going nuts. Cordero to the Reds for $46 million and 4 years, Linebrink t the White Sox for $19 and 4 years. That's going to push prices up everywhere and the Yankees might be smart to stay out of it and use some of the young guys round out the pen. I don't know what Vizcaino wants, but the price just went up.

Lastly, CJ Henry is back with the Yankees. This makes the Bobby Abreu trade that much better. Henry certainly looks like a bust, but apparently he needed contacts and when he got them in the last month of the season his bat responded. Putting him in Tampa next year and seeing what happens is a no-risk proposition.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

That's my prediction anyway.

Johan Santana might be available later this off-season should the Twin fail to sign him to a long term deal. The Twins are opening a new park in 2009, so they probably want a marque pitcher to go along with their marque catcher in Joe Mauer.

That being said, should he become available, the Red Sox are likely to make a pitch. The pros: Santana is the best lefty in baseball if not the best pitcher in baseball. He is only 28 and in his prime. A lefty in Yankees Stadium is always a good thing. The cons: He will cost a ton to acquire. Even if he is acquired, it will take a ton of cash to sign him ($20mm a year for 6 years).

The larger question for the Red Sox is that in order to get him, we as fans are going to have to say goodbye to 2 or 3 top prospects. Not the Michael Bowden's or Aaron Bates', but the Jacoby Ellsbury's and/or Clay Buccholz's.

The Red Sox have worked hard to build up a farm system. Winning the 2007 World Series proved that not only have they worked hard at it, they've also succeeded with Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen contributing (Youkilis I believe was a draft choice of the Dan Duquette regime). With that in mind, they can choose to use the talent or trade the talent (or a little of both). Using the talent means costs are contained given the current salary structure for young players. But talent doesn't always translate into quality MLB performance, so trading unproven talent for proven talent generally yields better returns. Of course that isn't always true, but with a skilled front office, you'd hope that trading for a Johan Santana would help your squad, right?

If I'm the Red Sox front office, I make a pitch.. You have to. Coco Crisp is in no matter what as the Twins need a CF should they lose Torii Hunter. Then I offer either Jonathan Lester OR Clay Buccholz, but not both. Lastly, I top off the offer with prospect that is further away like a Justin Masterson or Nick Hagadone. If that isn't enough to get the job done, then see you later. That would mean a team like the Yankees would have to beat the Red Sox offer and it means they are giving up a Cano or Cabrera, Hughes OR Chamberlain and a Kennedy. Remember, they'd have to beat that offer, one would hope. I think Cano is a better talent than Crisp, so they have the edge there, but he doesn't play CF, not yet anyway.

I do not like the idea of having to face Johan 3-4 times each season should the Yankees land him. I believe at the end of the day he winds up a Yankees. Why? They are far less inclined to rebuild (see the $400mm they've committed this off-season so far) and probably have more pitching talent to trade than do the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees starting pitching wasn't good last year and being able to plug in Santana for 225 IP would be a huge boost.

So there you have it and I'm not apologizing for the teaser title.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

The Yankees added Jeff Marquez, Steven White and Francisco Cervelli to their 40-man roster today. The moves were made because it is the deadline to add players to the 40-man which protects them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

With these additions and the addition last week of Scott Patterson, the Yankees have 39 players on their 40-man roster. That does not include any of the free agents they have supposedly resigned, so the Yankees will have some work to do to get back under 40.

Of the four guys, Patterson could be in the bullpen out of camp, he dominated at AA, but he is 28. Marquez is an interesting guy, but I think he will be moved to the bullpen. White has to be considered in the second tier of Yankees prospects. He has shown a pattern of getting to a new level in the minors, struggling at that level and then doing well the following year. That does not bode well for him in 2008 in the majors, but we will see.

The most interesting name is Cervelli. His .287/.387/.397 line in Tampa doesn't look very impressive until you note that the league OPS was a .713, putting Cervelli .081 points above it. He will have to prove he can keep hitting when he goes to Trenton this year, but at least there is someone who can be called up to give the Yankees a third catcher in September.

One name not on the list is Eric Duncan. It's not a shock, because Duncan just hasn't been good enough to merit inclusion, but it means they could technically lose him in the Rule 5. Then again, I don't know if a team would be willing to keep him in the majors for an entire season.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 06:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Phil Pepe has had a great career writing in New York, but this piece is awful.

I don't know if this was an assignment he couldn't refuse, but between this quote:

"Now, because of Hank Steinbrenner's patience, determination and the courage to stick to his guns, Posada is on board and Rodriguez and Rivera are expected to soon follow. Can Pettitte be far behind?"

and the not so subtle swipe at the disaster that is Jim Dolan:

"We have seen the damage that can be done when the son tries to outdo the father; just look at the mess on Eighth Avenue and 33rd. Street. That's clearly not the case here."

This just doesn't seem like a Pepe product. This guy wrote "Billyball" and countless other great baseball books. Now he is doing this?

Hank, we get it, you are in charge. I suppose you never had a chance to be understated, not growing up with your father. But, try and learn that sometimes less is more. You don't need to be the story all the time, you don't have to always offer an opinion. Your Dad ruined far too many players and managers with his constant meddling, please, please learn from that.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

So far this offseason I have promoted an idea for a total rebuild of the Yankees and an idea for a spending spree, so there is logically one more place to go, the middle ground.

In the middle ground we will try and use the farm system, but also supplement it with some spending. I think it is probably the most likely approach the Yankees will take, but it requires two admissions. First, for everyone who thinks the offense will be fine next year consider the following. Everyone is a year older and with the exceptions of Cano and Cabrera that isn't a good thing. Two, the Yankees do not have any hitting prospects that you can project as major league starters in the next two years.

The age is a very important factor because it is reasonable to assume that most of the regulars will not improve on their 2007 numbers and some of them will see declines. You can expect Cano to improve and maybe Melky (more on him later) but the net effect of all of this means the offense should be weaker than the one that scored 968 runs last year. How much weaker is the key question because you can create doomsday projections (Posada breaks major bone, Jeter jailed for failure to pay taxes) or you can just generally say "weaker" and realize what that means.

And what that means is barring the addition of another bat, the Yankees need to give up less runs in 2008 than they did in 2007 to offset the runs they won't score. Luckily, that seems like a reasonable proposition right now because the Yankees have a lot of young pitchers and one would expect 30 starts from Phil Hughes in 2008 will be better than the 30 starts the Yankees got in 2007 from the combination of Igawa, Rasner, DeSalvo and Clippard.

But, the work isn't done just by writing in Hughes, Joba and Kennedy into the 2008 rotation. You still don't have Andy Pettitte and the Yankees need to account for that. Without Pettitte and his 215 innings, the Yankees have a big hole in their rotation. Considering the work that Kennedy, Hughes and Joba did in 2007, you probably should not expect the Yankees to let any of them pitch 180 innings, and I think 160 or so would be a good guess. That means they are either going to be skipped in the rotation or pulled out of games earlier. I favor the prior approach if the Yankees have Andy back because you can go to a quasi six-man rotation with Mike Mussina from time to time. If Pettitte doesn't return, Mussina is your fifth starter and if that is the case, I think you go to free agency and add a starter. I don't want to add a big contract, but someone who could give me some innings and isn't going to look for a huge deal. I think Job Lieber would be a guy who makes sense.

And, you have to address the bullpen on some level. Rivera's back (reportedly) which is good, but he is going to need some help. Farnsworth may be getting a new manager who might believe in him, but I don't. The Yankees can bring Vizcaino back, but I view him as more of complementary piece. Edwar Ramirez seems to me to be a one-trick pony and that trick fails too much for me to trust him in big spots. I think Ohlendorf has potential, but he is untested. I put him in the 2008 pen, but I still want someone else in there to help get the ball to Mo. In addition, I want a lefty in the pen just not a Myers-type. Two guys who I would contact are Kerry Wood and Eddie Guardado. Both are coming back from injuries and both might not want to come to New York, but I am going to try and sign them to incentive-loaded deals.

Now that the pitching is squared away, let's look at the hitting. I am willing to take a flier on a Duncan/Betemit platoon at first mainly because I don't see any good free agents out there. I will say it one last time, Hideki Matsui should pick up a first baseman's glove and learn the position. The Yankees can make noise about putting Giambi there, but he is almost guaranteed to break down if they try that. I can't really think of a realistic trade target, so internal will be the way I go here.

And that brings me to Melky. I like Melky, I like watching Melky, but I am not sure if he is the solution in center going forward. Yes, he just turned 23, but his season numbers of .273/.327/.391 are a disappointment. Melky has shown flashes, but he regressed in 2007. I am not saying you run him out of town, but considering the free agents available who can play center right now, I wouldn't hold up a trade over Melky either. (As and aside, Rowand would be my choice of the three)

For the bench I am willing to go with youth as well. It sounds like Molina is back and we know Duncan and Betemit will be there in some role and of course there is Giambi. Assuming the Yankees don't try and go with 12 pitchers again (please) that leaves one spot and I give that to either Gardner or Gonzalez. Gonzalez probably makes more sense as an infielder, but Gardner would give you speed on the bench. Neither one is going to dazzle with the bat, but the Yankees have Giambi, Duncan and Betemit to pinch hit most days.

So, there you have it the moderate plan. Supplement the roster with some free agent signings, but nothing huge. Mix some more veterans in and some rookies and see how that goes.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)

While it isn't official, ESPN is reporting Mike Lowell has agreed to the framework of a 3 year, $37.5mm deal ($12.5mm per). Peter Gammons said Lowell could have had a 4 year deal from 2 other teams, but wanted to stay with the Red Sox. For those who were questioning the things that were important to Lowell, now you know. And as I mentioned yesterday, this is great work by the Red Sox. They get back an important piece at their price.

With this signing, the Red Sox have taken care of a all of their big outstanding issues. 25-man Roster:

c - Varitek
1b - Youkilis
2b - Pedroia
3b - Lowell
ss - Lugo
lf - Manny
cf - Ellsbury
rf - Drew
dh - Ortiz
bench - Crisp
bench - Cora

sp - Beckett
sp - Matsuzaka
sp - Schilling
sp - Wakefield
sp - Lester
sp - Buccholz
rp - Papalbon
rp - Okajima
rp - Delcarmen
rp - Tavarez

That leaves 4 spots open, a back-up catcher, a bench outfielder, a utility guy (with OF and IF capability, ala Hinske) and 2 pitchers (or 1 pitcher and another bench guy). Usually at this point, there is a ton to figure out and many questions to answer, but 2007 is different. Peter and I discussed this today, the lack of talent in the free agent pool means most, if not all of the major decisions are done. All that is left for Boston is to trade Crisp, fill out the bench and settle on the rest of the bullpen. Those are relatively minor decisions when discussing the 2008 Red Sox.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 02:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

For those of you who haven't heard, Rob Neyer suggested Hankenstein as a nickname for Hank Steinbrenner and I think it is kind of catchy.

Anyway, Tim Marchman has an excellent piece in the NY Sun today about Hank and his impact on the Yankees. For those of us who think Hank should zip it, it is a sobering reality check.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN radio says that Buster Olney, of ESPN.com, is reporting that the Red Sox are close to re-signing Mike Lowell. Now take that for what it is worth as I have been up and down ESPN.com and cannot find a link. Olney's daily report is from Sunday, so I am guessing when they update to today's report, we will see something.

Extra reading. I found this on ESPN.com and hadn't seen it. This bond might explain the reason Boston exercized teh option on Tavarez. Tavarez is one of a kind...

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Update: Olney apparently said on ESPN Radio that Lowell is close to signing a 3 year, $36mm deal from the Red Sox. I'll believe it when I see (read) it. If this ends up being true, it explains why guys like Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington are making baseball decisions and not us. Also, Olney's blog is now updated to reflect the Red Sox/Mike Lowell situation.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Ok, so the rumors are that Rivera has come to his senses and accepted the Yankees deal. That means New York has probably retained three of their four big free agents and only Pettitte is a question mark at this point. So, what should the Yankees do at this point?

Since rebuilding is obviously not in the cards, how about throwing some serious cash around? How about the Yankees go out and spend like only the Yankees can spend? On what you ask? Consider the following.

First, go and offer Francisco Cordero $40 million for the next four years to setup/close. I say both because let's face it, chances are Mariano is going to stop being effective at some point in the next three years. So, get Cordero in for a ridiculous number as a setup guy, but you also get Mariano's replacement in the same move. This clearly sends Joba to the rotation, where he will be needed.

Get Vizcaino back for three years and maybe $12 million? Whatever it takes, just sign the guy.

Next, give Pettitte more money to leave Houston. I am sure he is torn by his family obligations, but at some point he will sign for a paycheck. Maybe the price is $18 million, maybe it is $20 million, I would find out and get him back.

Then head to Minnesota and offer them Hughes, Melky and Horne for Santana. This may or may not get it done, but I think it at least keeps the conversation going. If you have to, throw in Kennedy, but under no circumstances give away Joba or Cano.

Give Giambi and Farnsworth away, even if it means getting 25% of their salaries back. They are no longer needed here.

Lastly, sign Andruw Jones to a monumental two-year deal. I am thinking two years for $45 million or so. Adding Jones takes care of the hole in center and adds a potent righty bat to the lineup. Overpaying him for two years gives you time to see if Austin Jackson is for real.

So, when you add it all up, what do you have? You have a team that just added around $30-40 million in payroll and has a pretty awesome lineup and rotation.

Damon-LF
Jeter- SS
Abreu-RF
A-Rod-3B
Matsui-DH
Jones-CF
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Duncan/Betemit-1B

Santana
Wang
Pettitte
Joba
Mussina

And you have Rivera with Cordero and Vizcaino setting up and a bunch of young arms coming out of the pen (Ramirez, Ohlendorf, Britton, Cox, Sanchez, etc.)

That team should score runs by the bunch and with Santana anchoring the rotation, do well in the playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would take my chances with this club.

Of course there are other approaches and we will discuss those more in the upcoming week.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

The Boston Herald and Boston Globe are both reporting that Mike Lowell's suitors now number one. The one being the Red Sox. The Globe sites ESPN's Peter Gammons who said he believed the Yankees had withdrawn their offer to Lowell with the signing of Alex Rodriguez.

That means he has a 3-year deal worth something in the $36mm to $42mm range from Boston. Word is he wants a 4th year and who can blame him?

Both the Globe and Herald are suggesting he might make a decision this weekend. My concern is that both the Anaheim Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers are making a play for Florida Marlins Miguel Cabrera. The loser might be apt to make a run at Lowell if he is still on the market. So it might make sense to Lowell's team to wait things out. That being said, you can be sure the Red Sox offer isn't not going to last forever. Their leverage is that they can withdraw their offer at anytime and I'm sure Lowell knows this.

So there is risk in any decision. Lowell can wait to see if a better offer comes along, but get left holding the bag if Boston withdraws its offer (and Boston would then be dealing from strength), or he can sign now with Boston (but potentially leave money on the table if either LA club were to have offered a better deal). The Red Sox risk losing Lowell too should they jank their offer. No matter what, it really does seem that Lowell has 1 legit offer on the table now and that is from Boston. Seems like a no-brainer to me Mike. Let's sign that contract and enjoy the next 3 seasons.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Looks like #2 might be in trouble with the law.

I know a lot of people who also claim to be Florida residents but spend a lot of time in New York so Derek isn't alone, but you would think a guy who makes $20 million a year wouldn't miss the roughly 10% it costs the rest of us to be residents of this great state and city. (Note to any tax officials reading this. By saying "know" I mean I have heard that some guy down the street, a street I don't really know the name of, may have gone to Florida last month to visit his sick grandmother. On his way to the airport, I am pretty sure he stopped off at a New York tax office and made an estimated payment, but I am probably confused about the whole issue and I could never testify in a court about any of this. Wait, I forgot what my name is.)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 01:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles have NOT offered Mike Lowell a deal. So if you believe reports, he has offers not from Atlanta, St. Louis, or Philly, but instead New York (Yankees) and Boston. The Angels are after Miguel Cabrera. If they fail to get Cabrera, perhaps they will turn their attention to Lowell. But just how long will the Marlins negotiate before they pull the trigger on a deal for Cabrera?

When matched up against all the reports in the last 24 hours, Lowell has 2 offers, from the Yankees and Red Sox. In the words of Fletch: "Irwin M. Fletcher you choose..."

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

You know the thing that strikes me about a story like this isn't how improbable this outcome seemed a few days ago. Instead it's how all of this happened without anyone being the wiser to it. While all of the press was out chasing the latest rumors, all of this happened, LAST WEEKEND!

I mean seriously, you have to give everyone involved in this props for dropping the cone of silence on these proceedings. Considering that we live in a 24/7 news cycle, it really amazes me that this thing didn't crack until apparently all of the interested parties wanted it to.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This story is interesting on two fronts. First off, it confirms what many of you have suggested, Hank's mouth is costing the Yankees. And it tells you that Mo wants a fourth year.

Look you cannot begin to calculate Rivera's worth to the Yankees these past 12 years. The guy has been lights out and his plaque belongs in Monument Park as soon as he retires. But, the economics of baseball mean that you just can't make a bet on a fourth year with him. Based on his career, Mariano has pretty consistently pitched 70-something innings a season. So, if the Yankees offer of $15 million a season is true, they are willing to pay him about $200,000 an inning next year! (Roger Clemens just got about $175k per inning)

All of those assumptions are based on the idea that Mo stays healthy throughout his deal. If he gets hurt, the math gets even uglier and pitchers in their late 30's and early 40's almost always get hurt for some part of the season. The Yankees have been burned by plenty of guys who fit that age demographic over the past few years. From Randy Johnson to Kevin Brown to Roger last season, age got the best of them. It gets the best of all of us and betting against it is always going to make you a loser. The Yankees can roll the dice and pray that Mo stays healthy for four years, but it is a stupid gamble. If he insists on the fourth year, I would thank him for everything and wish him well in the future. Someday the Yankees were going to have to replace Rivera and this might be that moment.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has this to say about the Lowell situation. The key being he has talked to a source in the Atlanta organization who said Lowell has not been part of their planning and rumors out of St. Louis suggest they aren't interested either, both run contrary to the WHDH report from yesterday.

That does leave New York in the running as well as Anaheim.

Also from the Herald, Tony Massarotti has this to say about the Lowell situation. He indicates that Philadelphia also has interest, but there are no details of an offer.

Massarotti suggesst that the time is quickly coming that Lowell has to figure out what he should do:

4 years, $48mm - $60mm from someone like NY or Anaheim.

or

3 years, $36mm from Boston (ESPN is reporting it could be 3 years worth as much as $45mm).

Of course if Lowell is still productive after 3 years, he can re-up with Boston or someone else. But that is no guarantee (which is why Boston isn't budging on their offer). So if he signs with Boston, he is leaving 1 year and between $12mm - $24mm. That is a bunch of money.

Again, my heart tells me to go to 4 years. I mentioned this the other day too, why not offer a vesting 4th year option that has fairly easy triggers? At the very least Boston gets some certainty out of the 4th year. But get ready for disappointment Boston fans.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 01:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Wow, this ARod saga is getting out of hand. Glad I'm not a Yankee fan. Talk about being conflicted.

Of greater importance to Red Sox fans is the status of Mike Lowell. WHDH TV 7 is reporting that 4 teams have offered Lowell a 4 year deal with total money in the $55mm - $60mm range. WHDH says the teams are the Angels, Braves, Cardinals and Yankees. The Yankees want him to play 1b.

Now if the Red Sox really want to re-sign Lowell, they have to go to 4 years. If the reports are true that Boston has offered 3 years, $36mm, then a 4th year would drive that to $48mm, below the range listed above, but probably enough to get him to sign.

I have no idea which way the Red Sox will go should they lose Lowell. But the key is, despite what I am suggesting, giving him a 4th year, the Red Sox have a track record on limiting the length on contracts. Just ask Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez. Both the Damon and Martinez decisions were widely criticized in Boston at the time, but both have to be considered the right move. Pedro had a good 2005, but was an average pitcher in 2006 before undergoing surgery missing the rest of 2006 and most of 2007. Damon gave the Yankees a good 2006, but struggled in 2007 and ended up in leftfield. His power numbers aren't what you want from a leftfielder.

Of course it will be sad if Lowell goes as he was such an important part of the team, but that is baseball and you can be sure the Red Sox front office has set a value on Lowell and there is little wiggle-room. I was about to say I wish they'd done the same with J.D. Drew, but that grand slam was huge.

I am finding it difficult to find much news on the Lowell negotiations leading me to believe there isn't much action between the Red Sox and Lowell camps at present. The further leads me to believe that the Red Sox are sticking to their guns.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

OK, so I am reading all these various reports about this whole mess and I am beginning to think that Scott Boras knew exactly what he was doing here.

Consider that before the opt-out, the Yankees were on the hook for at least $81 million for the next three years. With escalator clauses it would have probably worked out to $91 million. Then add in the proposed extension they were going to offer, supposedly $28 million a year for 5 years. which works out to an additional $140 million. That means you have the Yankees originally on the hook for $231 million and eight more years or $28.75 million per year- but $21 million of that was paid by Texas which makes it $210 million and $26.25 million per season. If the deal that has been reported is signed ($275 million at 10 years) the Yankees increase their obligation by another $44 million and 2 years and the average value is $27.5 million a year. And, many reports peg the potential deal at around $300 million with incentives.

So, the Yankees end up extending a deal for two more years than they were originally prepared to do and actually increase their annual outlay by $1.25 million a season. Boras also gets his client another $44 million and sets another record for biggest contract in sports history. How is this a "win" for the Yankees? Maybe I give Boras too much credit, but I can't help but wonder if this was his plan all along. Sure, he looks bad, but does he care when he grabs his 10% of the deal? Could he have realized all along that $350 million was absurd and the Yankees were his best shot so it was just about grabbing a bigger amount of Yankees' dollars?

I still think this all ends up for nothing and until I see a signed contract I will maintain that, but the final details of a potential Yankee contract would be fascinating to see.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 03:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Bill Madden argues in the Daily News today that Cashman made a mistake by not extending Rivera and Posada back in March. Well, hindsight is 20/20 and that is the hole in this argument. What would have happened if Posada didn't hit this year or Mariano couldn't close anymore? Cashman took a risk and lost, but that doesn't mean it was a dumb decision.

But, if there is one thing you want to see that Brian has learned from his risk is to look at this from the other end of the process, the younger end. Cano and Wang are about to become arbitration eligible. That means for the next three years they and the Yankees can exchange figures for salary increases and either agree on a number or let an arbitrator decide. Here's where you save some money, how about offering these guys longer term deals?

This is where the Yankees have never ventured. When Bernie Williams was an up and coming star the Yankees did nothing and went to free agency with him. Derek Jeter got to the point in arbitration where the club was offering $14.25 million and he was asking for $18.5, before the Yankees finally gave him a contract. Contrast that with the Red Sox and their approach with Nomar. They signed him after his first full season in the bigs and ended up with a well below-market deal with him as a result. They reached extensions with Beckett and Crisp when they got them via trade and while the Crisp deal doesn't look great, Beckett earning $32 million over the next three years is a steal.

If the Yankees want to take some risks, this is where you do it. Sign some of these younger guys to deals now. Get Cano and Wang settled before the arbitration process starts. Is it too early to talk to Joba and Hughes? Maybe, but considering the price of young pitching today, locking them up could be the smartest decision they could make.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

This post could also be titled "Oh crap, we lost Lowell."

Seriously, what if Mike Lowell says no to Boston and ends up in Florida (once Miguel Cabrera is traded)? Boston will have a hole to fill. Let's eliminate one idea right away. There should be no moving Kevin Youkilis to 3b...unless St. Louis offers up Albert Pujols. Why move a gold glove player to another position? It doesn't make sense. So with that in mind, who are the options?

Miguel Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez
Chad Spann

Cabrera: An outstanding talent, Cabrera is only 24 yet has produced: 313/.388/.542 with 138 HRs, 523 RBI in 5 seasons in the majors. The knock on Cabrera is he can't play D. Compared to Mike Lowell, that is probably true, but otherwise he is an average major league 3b based on errors and range factors. He has a career .954 fld% compared to a league average of the same. His range is a 2.52 vs a league average of 2.70. Lower yes, but not by much. So giving him the benefit of the doubt, he is the same as league average. The main issue with Cabrera is his weight. He is listed as 6'2" 185 on baseball-reference.com, Firstinning.com has him at 210. But seeing him today, he appears much heavier. I won't try to guess, but the key is his weight has increased dramatically since his debut. Consensus: He will be expensive and there is some concern his performance will decline as his waistline grows.

ARod: Best position player in baseball. He is an amazing offensive talent and can more than hold his own defensively at 3b or SS. That we know. The questions about ARod generally revolve around clubhouse presence, post-season performance and value. ARod has a questionable reputation amongst his teammates, has never produced in the post-season and presents a horrible value. A horrible value if a team were to give him $35mm a season. That is too much money for one player if not because it takes up a large % of resources but also because it creates a class issue within the team. I suppose there are classes anyway, but he automatically would become the uber personality based on income, not necessarily accomplishment. Buyer beware.

Spann: The Red Sox don't have a 3b ready to fill in in their farm system. Chad Spann is the Pawtucket 3b, but he doesn't project to be in Boston in 2008. Keep looking.

The more I look at this, the more it makes sense to sign Lowell. Of course there are plenty of 3b's in baseball and Boston might very well have some trade ideas, but those scenarios are too many to discuss here. We will probably find out their decision/course of action soon.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

The Yankees have offered Mariano Rivera a three-year/$45 million deal. That could very well be the definition of insanity, but so be it. I am not sure why they felt the need to pump the offer up to that level, it is $4-million more than any other closer and Rivera turns 38 in a few weeks. Personally, I would have thought that two years and about $24-million would have been fair, but I guess the Yankees felt the market would give Rivera more than that.

Two things are clear from this offer. First and foremost, the Yankees have made Rivera an offer he shouldn't refuse. I can't imagine he could get a better offer somewhere else, but even if he did, would it be worth it to leave New York when you are walking away from that much money? Second, the Yankees are clearly not going into rebuilding mode. They are spending money and spending it with gusto. It will be interesting to see what happens next, but the Posada contract and Rivera offer make me believe they may bid on one of these free agents in the upcoming weeks.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)

The deal is apparently official, 4 years/$52.4 million, or $100,000 more a year than Damon or Matsui got.

Look, it is ridiculous to give a 36-year old catcher a four-year deal. But, the fact is the Yankees were totally boxed in here. Who else was going to catch in 2008 for this team? The fact is, if you want to see the Yankees contend in 2008, they need Posada behind the plate. Take his bat out of an already weakened lineup and things would get really ugly.

Now, the Yankees are probably going to really regret this contract in 2010 and 2011. Baseball Prospectus projected Posada to still be above replacement value in 2010 and out of baseball in 2011. Those projections were before this season, so they will be revised upwards, but he will not be worth $13.1 million in those years. The question is, how long will Posada be able to catch and how long will the Yankees want him to? There is a huge incentive for the Yankees to protect their investment now and that means getting Posada out from behind the plate as much as possible. But, shift his bat to first or DH and it becomes less of a value. If Posada can't catch on at least a part time basis in 2010 and 2011, he will be one of the most overpaid players in the game.

Hopefully, the Yankees don't view this signing as taking care of the catching position for the next four years. Posada's successor needs to be found and soon. Getting a guy who can effectively fill in behind the plate for 40 games or so in 2008 is a smart move and Jose Molina doesn't fit that description. The Yankees need to take some of the young pitching and turn it into a young catcher. Let him learn from Posada and in 2010 or 2011, when Jorge's knees give out, he can step in.

And, while I sit here and gripe about the deal, I have to admit I am pretty happy to see Posada returning. He is one of the easiest guys on the team to root for and I am glad that he will be a lifetime Yankee.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 01:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

Peter's last post is aptly titled. Tick, Tick, Tick indeed. The Red Sox and Mike Lowell haven't reached an agreement and with only a few hours left until free agency, the Red Sox have little time left to exclusively negotiate. Come midnight tonight, Lowell is free to sign with any team.

Boston.com/Boston Globe is reporting that the sides are stuck on the length of contract. Lowell wants 4 years and Boston is offering 3. Apparently the 3 is more than they wanted to offer in the first place and if Lowell is stuck on getting 4 years, the Red Sox might be in the market for a 3b not named Lowell.

The price tag for guys like Miguel Cabrera (Lester or Buccholz and Ellsbury) and ARod ($35m a year for 10 years) make signing Lowell a priority, if not the cheapest option and best value. Even if Lowell insists on 4 years, might it make sense to give it to him knowing that the future of the Red Sox is in guys like Buccholz, Lester, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Masterston, Bowden and Lowrie? And with no 3b coming up the pipeline, Lowell might be the annual dip into the "ineffiecient" free agent market that Theo Epstein talks about.

By midnight, we will know a bunch more I suppose. My opinion on this has changed a bit and while I thought 3 years was more than fair, I now realize the alternatives are few and or expensive. I say offer him 3 years with a 4 year vesting option based on easy criteria and if he says no, give him 4 years guaranteed. Of course the Red Sox are known for setting a value on a player and sticking to it, so we should all be prepared to be disappointed and Pedro Feliz at 3b.

In other news, Dustin Pedroia won the AL ROY award today, the first Red Sox since Nomar Garciaparra. Also, we can expect a signing or two by Boston to help round out the bench in the next few days.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Just what will the Red Sox do when Jason Varitek's contract is up after 2008? JV is more than solid defensively, but his offense is on the decline.

Varitek's OPS and OPS +
2001 - .860/123
2002 - .724/90
2003 - .863/120
2004 - .872/121
2005 - .855122
2006 - .725/83
2007 - .788/103

Definition of OPS+ can be found here. Essentially, Varitek has been a plus offensive catcher for his career, but his offense has tailed off since 2006. In 2006, he was just bad, while this past season he rebounded a bit, but was not a plus offensive catcher. This isn't a knock on Varitek as catchers get old and they tend to age faster than other players.

The big question is what do the Red Sox do after 2008? George Kottaras? If it hadn't been for a fantastic Juy, Kottaras would have been terrible in 2007. Unless he figures things out at AAA, I do not think he is a viable option in 2009. The key with Kottaras has been that his bat is good but his defense needs work. Well so far at AAA his bat has disappeared making his worth minimal.

The Red Sox could always extend Varitek another year or 2, but that comes with diminished expectations and it isn't likely he will get better or even stay the same offensively. They need to find a catcher that can help in 2009 and beyond. High-A catcher Mark Wagner is intriguing, but you cannot get too excited about his offensive stats as he plays at Lancaster's hitter friendly park. His home splits: .381/.454/.655 and his road splits: .251/.358/.398. In other words, he might be an ok hitter some day, but not a great hitter. Man those splits are extreme.

So keep your eyes open for the Red Sox to use Coco Crisp and a prospect to get a high ceiling catcher. Texas' Jarrod Saltalamacchia is one idea, but he is probably the top catching prospect in baseball, so his cost might be steep. I'm not sure why Atlanta thought it a good idea for him to skip AAA ball. Why rush these guys? Regardless, my bet here is that the Red Sox make a play for the catcher of the future this off-season.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Boston Globe (link via ESPN) is reporting that 11 players who are free agents will be named in the Mitchell Report. The story states that the players have been notified, but what about the GM's?

We know that free agents can start signing with new teams next week, but are teams supposed to be bidding on guys who may have cheated without knowing it? Mitchell is apparently collecting evidence until Saturday and then finishing the report, but this looks like another mess for baseball. I guess we will know the reason if we see a free agent sign right away for less money than expected, but this seems like an odd way to run a billion-dollar business.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald is reporting that the Red Sox have made a "really strong" offer to Mike Lowell. The deal is 3 years guaranteed. This according to a club source. Let's hope Lowell isn't like Theo Epstein in that he doesn't mind his contract negotiations leaked to the press.

Silverman continues to say that the Red Sox have also considered alternative players should they lose Lowell. One idea is to have Kevin Youkilis move to 3rd and promote Chris Carter to play 1st/dh with David Ortiz. Carter split time between the Boston and Arizona systems posting .324/.383/.521 (565 PA) at AAA Tuscon and .234/.308/.319 (52 PA) at AAA Pawtucket last season. He was acquired indirectly for Wily Mp Pena.

Carter isn't supposed to be a defensive expert in fact his glove is a liability. So he might have to work with Ortiz at 1b. But, let's face it, Carter is not the guy you want to mix into the line-up on a more that occasional basis in 2008. Carter projects to be a good player, but Lowell is better.

That's what we know about Lowell. All the things I am reading and hearing are pointing to Boston re-signing Lowell.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 05:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Counting the minor leagues, the Yankees currently have 12 free agents. And, while the first four (Posada, Pettitte, Rivera and a certain third baseman) have gotten plenty of ink, the other eight haven't. Let's look at each of them and talk about what the Yankees should do.

Since we are going alphabetically, Colter Bean is at the top of the list. Let's face it, Bean never got a fair shot here and since he just came off of a 5+ ERA season, I think it is best to let him walk.

Jim Brower is next and he isn't worth bringing back either.

Next up is an interesting name, Roger Clemens. The Yankees made a mistake in 2003 by not offering arbitration, but this year the decision is already made for them. Clemens is not a type A or B free agent, so the Yankees wouldn't get any compensation for losing him anyway. Enjoy the Texas sun, Roger.

Doug Mientkiewicz is a luxury the Yankees cannot afford. Doug had his best year since 2003, .277/.349/.440, but it would seem a foolish bet to expect him to do that again. The Yankees have four guys who could play first besides him on the roster now so the need isn't there either.

Jose Molina would seem to be a no-brainer to return, but that is more a reflection on the catching talent available that anything. Molina put up .318/.333/.439 for the Yankees in 66 AB's, but his career rates of .243/.279/.345 are much more reasonable expectations going forward. He does catch a good game and play good defense, so retaining him isn't the worst idea, but the Yankees should aggressively look for a new backup catcher this offseason.

Wil Nieves makes Molina look like DiMaggio and the Yankees should be happy to let him go.

Conveniently, the next four names are the "Big 4" so we can skip them and go right to Ron Villone. Villone 's one redeeming factor is that he is left-handed, but he doesn't get lefties out anymore than he gets righties out. While Sean Henn hasn't shown much either, the Yankees would be better off giving this bullpen spot to someone who can get outs, regardless of which side they come from.

And that brings us to the last name on the list, Luis Vizcaino. Throw April, May and September out of the equation and Vizcaino was absolutely lights out. Of course, you can't do that, so what can we make of his body of work? You could make the argument that the first two months are due to adjustment to New York and the last month is due to adjustment to joe Torre. That's fine, but perhaps the answer is just simply that Vizcaino's numbers ended where they should have ended up. His ERA+ was 104 which is also his career average.

So, perhaps the best way to look at him is as a pitcher who is slightly better than league average. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the Yankees, but I also wouldn't hand him millions and a three-year deal. He made $3-million last year and is a Type B free agent. Offer him arbitration and maybe two years and $6-million would be my play.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

c - Varitek
1b - Youkilis
2b - Pedroia
3b -
ss - Lugo
lf - Ramirez
cf - Ellsbury
rf - Drew
dh - Ortiz

bench - Crisp
bench - Cora
bench -
bench -

sp - Beckett
sp - Matsuzaka
sp - Schilling
sp - Lester
sp - Buccholz
sp - Wakefield
rp - Papelbon
rp - Delcarmen
rp - Okajima
rp - Tavarez
rp -
rp -

I just listed 20 names that are under contract for 2008. The Red Sox find themselves in an interesting situation. One of their most important players, Mike Lowell, is the last remaining significant player (and position) to be signed, but that's it. If Lowell is not re-signed, there is a ton of work to do for Boston. The alternatives are few. ARod? Please, he is a terrible signing at the price his agent Scott Boros is suggesting. Trading for Joe Crede, he of the .305 career OBP and .446 slg? I hope not.

I say it is interesting because so little needs to be done to basically have the 2007 squad return. Unlike the 2004 Championship team that was essentially blown up (the infield and rotation especially), management seems content with the 2007 team returning. Of course we will probably see Jacoby Ellsbury take over for Coco Crisp whether or not Crisp stays a Red Sox, but aside from that, they will defend their title with most of the same players returning.

Notes: Word is that price isn't the issue with the Red Sox and Mike Lowell but rather the length of contract. The Red Sox were scheduled to meet again today (Wed) with Lowell's agent Lionel Hutz.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

In another very interesting move, Curt Schilling made public his contract with the Red Sox.  In reality he is probably revealing only 1% of it as the other 99% is legalese and boiler plate.

$8mm base

$3mm in Innings Pitched Incentives

$2mm in bonuses for 6 seperate weigh-ins.

$1mm bonus for receiving a Cy Young vote (more on this later)

And some other things that he didn't elaborate on.

First off, great deal for him as he is getting $8mm guaranteed.  The $2mm in weight bonuses is essentially a lay-up as if you hire some fitness freak to wake your rear end up at 8AM three times a week, you are going to make weight.  Heck, give the fitness person 5% of the $2mm bonus as salary and bring him/her on the road if need be.  Easy money for a pro athelete.

The real test will be the IP bonuses.  If he gets all of the listed incentives/bonuses, he is at $14mm, $1mm more than 2007.  If you are the Red Sox, you should hope he gets all of the incentives/bonuses because that means he had a very good season and was in shape.

As for the Cy Young vote, man, that is genius.  He can just offer Tony Massarotti a nice dinner and get the vote that way.  I'm kidding, but you know if the local writers that get to vote feel he treated them well, he has a good shot at getting one vote.

Ok, Schilling is wrapped up, on to Mike Lowell (same feelings as Schilling if you read his post, a great read).

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 04:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

Buster Olney of ESPN is reporting that Curt Schilling and the Red Sox have agreed to a 1 year deal with a base of $8mm.  Bill Burt of the Eagle Tribune indicates it is official but isn't able to confirm the details of the arrangement.

I like this deal.

2008 rotation:

Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Buccholz, Lester and Wakefield

Yes that's 6 starters, but remember when the Red Sox dealt Bronson Arroyo prior to the 2006 season only to need another starter?  You can never have enough starters.  Your grandfather said it and his father said it, you can never have enough starting pitching.

Also, give both sides credit.  The Red Sox said "no thanks" to signing Schilling to a 1 year $13mm deal in spring training and are now benefiting from that decision as they are likely to get him for less than that based on reports.  Schilling is also due a ton of credit for recognizing what is important to him.  I am only guessing here of course, but I have to assume he likes the idea of staying in Boston so he can run his other business, 38 Studios (formerly Green Monster Games, right?) located in Maynard, and for providing a very comfortable payday and family continuity.

Both sides win and this is good for the Red Sox.

Other storylines at the GM meetings:  What will happen with Coco Crisp, Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Torii Hunter, Andy Pettitte (declined his $16mm option, see Peter's post below), Miguel Cabrera, Joe Crede for Johnny Damon and of course the dummest player on Earth, ARod.  If ARod get's his $350mm starting price, he has essentially guaranteed himself a lousy team around him.  Enjoy ARod.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Bad news on the Andy Pettitte front as he declined his option tonight.  It isn't because he wants to pitch somewhere else, it's because he doesn't know if he wants to pitch at all next year.  So, the Yankees have told him he can sign a deal for $16-million at any time that he figures that out. 

That's all well and good, but the Yankees can't wait forever for Pettitte to decide.  Right now the rotation is Wang, Mussina and the three rookies.  Having Pettitte in there totally changes the makeup of the sqaud.  If he isn't going to be there, the Yankees probably need to sign at least one veteran pitcher for insurance.  

But, the Yankees are now in a holding pattern and it might be a lengthy one.  

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 01:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

The Boston Herald's Rob Bradford is reporting that the Red Sox and Curt Schilling are closing in on an incentive laden deal for Schilling to return for 2008.

The sources quoted did not provide much in terms of specifics.

More as news breaks.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN is reporting what has been rumored for awhile, Don Mattingly and Larry Bowa are heading out to LA with Joe Torre.  I had forgotten that the Dodgers have one last season in Vero Beach, so there is a decent chance we might actually see Torre manage against the Yankees in Spring Training 2008.  There is also the All-Star Game and I hope Clint Hurdle names Torre a coach for the NL and that Torre accepts.

About the whole Torre thing, Bill Madden brought up a good point Sunday in his column (scroll down) about both Girardi and Torre acting dishonorably in their negotiations with the Dodgers.  Also interesting was the assertion that I read in a couple of places that the Dodgers contacted Torre before he met with the Yankees in Tampa.  I imagine the Yankees won't make much of it, but if true, it is clearly tampering and the Dodgers should be punished by MLB in some way. 

But, I think everyone will move on and that is for the best.  GM meetings start today in Orlando, I will update as news/rumors become available. 

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 01:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

Imagine if John W. Henry and his ownership group had not won the rights to the Red Sox back in 2002.  Media mogul Charles Dolan made a better financial offer but for whatever reason, MLB decided Henry's offer was best.  I say "for whatever reason" when in fact I mean, "thank goodness."

Think of all the people and decisions that were involved during the ownership change.  Dan Duquette was let go quickly.  Duquette, for all of this personality deficiencies, was a decent GM and probably the first besides Sandy Alderson to incorporate statistics to such a degree as to influence personnel decisions.  Because of Duquette, the Red Sox signed Johnny Damon and traded for Pedro Martinez and pulled off one of the best trades of all time in getting Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for closer Heathcliff Slocumb.  Slocumb went on to save 6 more games in his career.

Upon completion of the ownership change from John Harrington, managing the Yawkey Trust, to Henry, Oakland A's GM Billy Beane was first targeted as the next GM.  Beane initially accepted the job and then pulled out after taking inventory of his personal situation.  It was a decision that was hard to argue with as family always comes first (he wanted to be close to his daughter in San Diego), but I was fairly grumpy at the time.  The idea of Beane running the Red Sox after having read Moneyball was too much to handle.  I was fired up.  Then Beane changed his mind and I was crushed.  Another typical Red Sox blunder I thought.

But before the front office of the Red Sox was established, I remember thinking that Charles Dolan was a good potential owner.  I wasn't a fan of Dolan, but I figured deep pockets would be a good thing.  The possibility of John W. Henry was not a significant upgrade over Dolan as his record in Florida, as owner of the Florida Marlins was not, hmmm, what's the word, good.

But I also recall the comments of a co-worker at the time.  He, a great Red Sox fan, thought the Henry group would be cheap and only interested in a profit and not a championship.  I gave him a hard time about it, but had no real reason to doubt his thoughts.  Henry has not done well in Florida and President Larry Lucchino never won a World Series in San Diego.

Anyway, after Beane turned down the offer, loyal Red Sox assistant GM Mike Port took the GM job on an interim basis until Brookline native Theo Epstein was named GM in late 2002/early 2003.

Back to Dolan.  Charles Dolan was the founder of HBO and Cablevision.  Sports are a big part of his family.  His brother Larry is the of the Cleveland Indians and his son James is the owner of the New York Knicks, New York Rangers and New York Liberty via his control of the Madison Square Garden Corporation.  Brother Larry has done a pretty good job at running the Indians while his son James has been an absolute disaster at running the Knicks, Rangers and Liberty.  The most embarrassing moment of James' career, to date, was the recent sexual harassment case involving Knicks coach  GM and coach Isiah Thomas.

Judging the siblings and/or offspring of Charles Dolan probably isn't fair, but that's all I have to go by.  I am certainly very happy John W. Henry and his ownership group was awarded the rights to the Red Sox.  Things have been interesting in Boston since the the Yawkey Trust sold, but I wouldn't change it for the world.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox made one expected move today and one unexpected move.  They exercised Tim Wakefield's annual option @ $4m.  That was the expected move.  They also exercised Julian Tavarez's $3.85m option.

Wakefield won 17 games in 2007 before getting injured.  He is a useful play to have and provides innings and leadership.  Tavarez offers so many things including comic (unintentional) relief and excellent flexibility on the pitching staff.

I was surprised by the Tavarez deal because his performance really slipped in the second half, but obviously the Red Sox like having him around, even if they don't think he is worth a roster spot on for the playoffs.

Not much to offer on the Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling situations.  With the GM Meetings running Nov 5-8 in Orlando, we can all expect more news soon.

Lastly, check out this site.  Cot's Baseball Contracts has tons of useful financial info on MLB teams and players.  One of their pages contains a historical look at notable salaries.  Interesting.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Not a shocker, but the Yankees picked up Abreu's option today.  This move was a no-brainer because keeping control of Abreu gives the Yankees the option to play him or trade him in 2008.  If you throw out Abreu's April and May, he had a great season.  As it was, .283/.369/.445 is almost equal to what AL Rightfielders averaged in 2007 (.288/.359/.465)  $16-million is a lot for that and I think the Yankees would be wise to at least kick the tires on trading him.  It would make them worse in 2008, but young position players are something the Yankees need right now and Abreu might be able to help them get some. 

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

Joe Torre pay with the Yankees:

2005 - $6.1m

2006 - $6.1m

2007 - $7.0m

Joe Torre with the Dodgers:

2008 - $4.33m

2009 - $4.33m

2010 - $4.33m (I couldn't find exact terms, so I took average annual value of the deal)

Joe Girardi with Yankees:

2008 - $2.5m

2009 - $2.5m

2010 - $2.5m (again, didn't have details, so I averaged out the deal).

Terry Francona with Red Sox:

2004 - $0.5m

2005 - $0.55m

2006 - $1.25m (base $0.75m plus a $0.65m signing bonus for new deal)

2007 - $1.65m

2008 - $1.75m

2009 and beyond?  2 year deal pending according to rumor, no details available.

It is tough to argue that in recent history (like under 5 years), Francona has been the most successful manager.  Over a 12 year period, Torre has been with most of his success over 7 years old.  And Girardi?  He hasn't had any success other than managing an under talented team to a 78-84 record in 2006.

Yet somehow the Yankees thought it a good idea to give Girardi $2.5m per year.  I'll be interested to see how much Francona gets in his extension.  I just found these contracts very interesting and I have to assume it means a payday for Francona and if not, couldn't one argue the Dodgers and Yankees have overpaid?

Now keep in mind, I thought, if I were a Yankees fan, which I'm not and never will be, that Torre was the right man for the job.  But I also felt he was deserving of a contract in line to what he was earning through 2007.  That didn't happen and I am also beginning to feel that perhaps this separation was a good one for the Yankees.  Time changes perspective and I think I am swinging over to wondering just what Girardi will bring to the Yankees.  Maybe it was the right move.  New blood after all can shake things up and if there was ever a team that needs a shake-up, it's the Yanks.

Ok, too much Yankee talk, time for a sulfuric acid shower.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)