YankeesRedSox.com

According to this, Phil Hughes is now part of the package to land Santana.

Now, if I am the Twins, I turn to Boston and say ok, now you guys have to give us Buchholz or Ellsbury. If they do, I turn around and say to the Yankees, ok now you top that offer.

That's the problem with this negotiation in my mind, the Twins control it all and the longer they draw it out, the better it is for them. So, if I am the Yankees, I set a deadline. You tell the Twins, this is our best offer and not only are we not improving it, we are pulling it by Monday.

I am pretty torn about this rumored offer. Someone once said the best way to judge a fair trade is if it hurts on both sides. This one would hurt, Hughes, Melky and something else. Part of me wonders if we all overvalue Hughes because for awhile there, he was our only prospect. Think about it, in early 2005 most people knew about Hughes and didn't know about Cano and Wang. That's the one thought that comforts me. Anything you read tells you about the wealth of arms in the system right now. Most experts say the Yankees are the deepest team when it comes to pitching depth. And, the Yankees are getting the guy who is generally considered the best in the business at the age of 28.

I think the problem is we have all learned these past few years to be wary of pitchers coming to town. Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano.....I am sure I am not the only one who thought Javier Vazquez coming in at the age of 27 off of a dominating 2003 would be amazing and look how that turned out. I think those collective experiences make us look at this trade with a wary eye instead of saying, we are getting an ace!

Who knows if it happens or doesn't, but it certainly sounds as if the Yankees have upped the stakes tonight.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 10:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

Kudos to Jimmy over at MVN for being on this story early and here's a link to a newspaper source, but it sounds like the Yankees are going to sign Mark Loretta.

Now Loretta is certainly an upgrade at the utility position over a Miguel Cairo, but I am confused over this move. Now maybe the Yankees are getting smart and are going to "only" carry 11 pitchers, but if they don't, someone has to go. Figure a bench right now of Giambi, Betemit, Duncan and Molina allows 12 pitchers to be carried. Now, I have no complaints with carrying 11 pitchers, it just surprises me. If they did that, you would have great coverage at all positions with the addition of Loretta, but isn't he very similar to Wilson Betemit?

You can also go to the darker implications of this move like Jimmy did. Is this a prelude to Cano being thrown into the Santana mix? I'm not sure, Loretta isn't exactly a spring chicken and the Yankees don't usually make that type of move without a replacement in mind. The 2009 free agent class isn't bustling with an obvious candidate at second and I don't think Alberto Gonzalez has shown that he will hit enough that you can count on him. But, I think that if they sign Loretta, it means there will be another shoe to drop. Let's hope it's not Cano.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

In case you missed it, Jorge Posada's new contract was announced today. Among the quotes he offered were:

When asked about Johan Santana, ""We need a No. 1. I would love to have him."

When asked about Andy Pettitte, "Right now, he's leaning toward retirement. I've been talking to him. I try to call him every week. It's tough. He's got a tough decision to make."

So, with two questions he further confirmed the Twins' suspicions that the Yankees really need/want Santana and he gave an update on Pettitte that makes the Yankees look even more desperate. Couldn't someone from the Yankees have prepped him ahead of time and gotten him to answer the questions like this?

When asked about Johan Santana, "He's a wonderful pitcher and I would love to be his teammate, but we have to make a trade that makes sense for the whole club."

When asked about Andy Pettitte, "I talk to him frequently and I don't know what he is going do. Most of all, I think he needs some time to think about things before deciding."

I know, Jorge was just being honest, but a little less candor may have helped things.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

Former major leaguer and current columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Charley "Shooter" Walters is reporting that the Red Sox have moved to the front of the line in the Johan Santana sweepstakes and the players involved aren't who you think.

Walters source? "A little birdie."

The deal is focusing on Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowry (sic) and Justin Masterson in return for Santana.

To be sure, that is a bunch of talent, but it isn't Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Lowrie is at AAA, Masterson AA, Crisp the former starting CF in Boston and Lester is in Boston (like you didn't know that). Minnesota would be getting a starting CF, a lefty starter with good upside in Lester, a SS with a good glove and some pop and a big sinkerballer in Masterson who projects to be a Derek Lowe type of arm.

Of course the next step would be signing Santana, who has a no-trade clause, and who is thought not to be interested in coming to Boston. Players have said that before and usually get some cash thrown at them to make Boston a more enjoyable place to play.

Johan Santana - I don't like Boston.
Theo Epstein - Here's $10 million more dollars.
JS - I love Boston.

It's a common negotiating tact and one that shouldn't be a stumbling block. Of course, I have no idea if Charley Walters is reliable. He apparently broke the recent Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal, so maybe there is something to this.

My take? I do this deal in a heartbeat. The part that brings me most concern is the size and length of contract Santana would want. Reports are 6 years, $150mm. I just posted yesterday that long-term pitcher deals can be disastrous (Carl Pavano, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle) but occasionally are great (Pedro Martinez's Red Sox deal, Randy Johnson's original Arizona deal, Greg Maddux deal with Atlanta). So there is big time risk.

I also pointed out last week that the Red Sox currently have a relatively low payroll of around $121mm. If they added $25mm in Santana and subtracted Crisp at $5mm, it is a net result of adding $20mm or so to the payroll. Peter illustrated, however, that there is a higher cost to a Santana deal in that you have to factor in the luxury tax. In Peter's piece, he mentioned that the Yankees have a higher cost because they'd need to replace Cabrera (if he were included) in CF and maybe a few other parts and their tax might be higher, but you get idea.

For Boston, this makes more sense as you have a min. cost CF in Ellsbury ready to step in, Santana replaces Lester in the rotation and Lowrie and Masterson are prospects. I can't believe I am saying this, but I make this deal. Bring it on!

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (0)

Maybe I am reading the tea leaves incorrectly here, but I think this deal would greatly lessen the chances Minnesota trades Santana. Are they willing to subtract a second starter after trading away Garza?

And, consider the addition of Young on the Twins' offense. Mauer-Young-Morneau in the middle of the lineup looks pretty good I think you have definitely made up for the loss of Hunter. With Liriano coming back, why wouldn't the Twins at least try and compete in 2008?

I would also be remiss if I didn't point out that Tampa suddenly getting wise about pitching is not a great development for the Yankees. If they add Garza to Shields and Kazmir, you suddenly have the potential for a very good 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation. Add Percival to the bullpen and all the young hitters and Tampa won't be so easy to beat up on anymore.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN's Rob Neyer had a semi-thorough review of agent Scott Boras's big deals over the past 10 years. Neyer's conclusion? Buyer beware. Read this quickly as it is an ESPN Insider article that is being made available for free for some reason.

Basically Neyer took the top Boras client signing over the past 10 years and looked at the player's 2 seasons prior and seasons since the signing. It is 7 bad, 3 good. And ARod qualifies as a good signing, except that Neyer points out that the Texas Rangers (the deal Neyer reviewed for this study) was good from a statistical standpoint for ARod, but not for the Rangers as a team as they remained bad. And for whatever reason, they felt it a good idea to trade ARod and assume $51mm of his contract. Does that suggest anything?

Have the Yankees courted 10 years of mediocre play? Obviously each contract is different as is each player. But I'll stick with my guns and say that when you pay a player so much more than the next guy, it causes problems. The Red Sox signing of Manny Ramirez 7 years ago might be the only exception. Why? Because Manny is a unique personality. I think it is dumb luck actually as Manny does anything he can to avoid the spotlight and attention usually afforded very rich sports types. Maybe I'm kidding myself.

ARod is going to make at least $27mm a year for the next 10 years and has incentives that will pay him, based on personal accomplishments, another $30mm or so. Scott Boras gets top dollar for his clients (I don't know how much he was involved in this deal, but he already made ARod a ton previously) and while it makes the player rich, it usually makes the team regret. Usually.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBacks (0)

I just heard an interview with Buster Olney on ESPN Radio in New York and it centered around Santana. Olney says that he sees no way Santana signs for less than 6 years/$25 million per. With his no-trade clause, he is going to demand that salary before he approves a deal anywhere. The Twins have apparently talked to the Yankees about a package of Hughes, Cabrera and (interestingly) Austin Jackson and the Red Sox about a package of Ellsbury, Buckholz and Lester.

Olney felt that between the price and the prospects, neither team would make a deal and the only team he could see pulling the trigger on this trade was the Mets. The problem is, the Mets don't have the same level of prospects and Olney wasn't sure Minnesota would take a lesser package centering around Milledge and Pelfry for Santana. His ultimate conclusion was that Santana wasn't going anywhere.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

That's right Yankees' fans, Santana is going to cost a whole lot more than the $20-$25 million a year he is supposedly seeking.

First off you have to pay Santana and don't forget to add luxury tax dollars to the deal so your $20-$25 million becomes $24-$30 million a season (Yanks get dinged at 40%)

Then, you need to replace Melky Cabrera in center since he is probably the one guy guaranteed to be in the package. Tori Hunter just got $18 million a year from the Angels. The Yankees are not going to go the Bubba Crosby route here and I don't see Damon switching back to center, especially with health concerns surrounding Giambi and Matsui. So, I would expect them to turn around and sign either Rowand or Jones. That probably costs around $15-$18 ($18-$21.6 million in luxury tax money).

When I look at numbers like that, this trade makes absolutely no sense. Why not just wait until 2009 when he is a free agent? You would have kept your three top prospects, finally determined if Melky is the answer in center (this could be a downside too) and think about the payroll. After 2008, you can subtract the contracts of Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, Pavano, Farnsowrth and Pettitte if he returns. That's between $64.5 million and $80.5 million depending on Andy. Sure, he could get traded and sign an extension before you get a chance to bid, but that would make the most sense to me.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBacks (0)

The Winter Meetings start a week from today in Nashville, TN. After some fun filled joy at Opryland (is that still open?), expect the Red Sox front office folk to work on improving the 2008 squad.

Buster Olney had an interesting take on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Let's say the Twins are able to piece together a trade for Santana, well Santana has a full no-trade clause. Santana is due to be a free agent after the 2008 season. He can veto any deal thus gaining leverage. If he puts the kibosh on it, he can either demand a greater contract extension from the acquiring team, or simply wait until after the 2008 season to become a free agent and the skies the limit.

Word on the street is that Santana is asking for 6 years, $150mm. Wow. That's more than any pitcher has ever earned (Roger Clemens beat that in 2007, but it was prorated). Great, you've just traded for a pitcher that is going to ask for $25mm a season. Oh yeah, and don't forget, in order to get him, you had to give up 2 of your best prospects (maybe 3).

With all of that in mind, I say the Red Sox should act the part of interested trade partner, but unless Santana wants less money and the Twins less prospects, stick with what they have. I think Yankee fan, on Peter's side, Mitchell had this figured out last week when he stated in the comments that Santana is going to be a free agent in 2008. I now agree.

So Theo Epstein, kick the tires, but don't pull the trigger. While Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz are largely unproven over a 162 game season, I like their chances. Even if they both flop, you still have roughly $25mm not spent on Santana to deploy.

To lend further credence to my argument, Olney reported yesterday (via Peter Gammons) that the Twins are asking for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. That's a starting pitcher with # 1 stuff potential, a starting centerfielder and a young centerfield prospect in Jackson. That's expensive. But if it isn't involving Joba and Kennedy, the Yankees might bite. Obviously NY can afford the contract, but they might not be willing to part with the talent. A comparable deal for Boston would be Buccholz, Ellsbury and a lesser prospect. Too expensive.

No word on where Coco Crisp will be traded if anywhere. There is a chance Boston will hang on to Crisp and trade him when the offer is right. This might make for a grumpy Crisp, but he did handle his playoff demotion well and I would expect he'd do the same if this scenario played out.

With 21 of 25 rosters spots filled, the Red Sox have committed $121,110,000 in payroll for 2008 (my calculation). The last 4 spots aren't likely to be more than $1mm each (and could be less if filled by rookies). Additionally, if Crisp ($4.75mm) gets moved, it might even go down. This is a dramatic decrease from 2007's $143,026,214 as taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. This means the Red Sox are either happy at this level (John Henry's business has struggled and his new home was really expensive and shark fin soup is tough to get) or they have plans for additional talent acquisition. That is some serious cash to play with if the latter scenario plays out. Your thoughts? Do the Red Sox stand pat or go out and acquire (who cares how, trade, free agency, etc) a mega talent to bolster the roster? I say they stand pat.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

Murray Chass of the Times has the details on the incentives that have held up the biggest contract in professional sports.

I have to say, I hate Curt Schilling, I think the guy is about the biggest ass in baseball, but you have to give the guy a ton of credit. When he went to Boston, he negotiated a bonus based on winning the World Series. Considering the losing streak that franchise was on at the time, that was a gutsy bet. And yes, he backed it up in spades.

Compare that to this, $6 million for each of five individual accomplishments. The problem is, you have to fault the Yankees too. As the story says, "He will get the marketing money in exchange for making certain appearances linked to his home run milestones over and above what players are required by their contracts to do." That means that the Yankees are going to go to Steiner Sports and market the hell out of this. You can expect bases, bats, balls, lineup cards, jerseys, probably even the cup he wore, to be marketed by the team after each milestone home run. Fans will shell out big bucks and basically that money will be divided into two parts.

My question to Hankenstein is this- what is the ultimate goal here, money or championships? This contract has me confused and disgusted.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Hopefully you are still getting over your turkey hangover, but there are a couple of baseball related things we need to look at.

First and foremost, is the news that Santana is probably on the block. It's going to be awfully hard for the Yankees to stay out of the bidding and if they can somehow get him without giving up two of the three young pitcher, I would strongly consider it. Would the Twins accept Kennedy, Cabrera, Horne and Whelan? I would find out.

Next, the market on relief pitching is going nuts. Cordero to the Reds for $46 million and 4 years, Linebrink t the White Sox for $19 and 4 years. That's going to push prices up everywhere and the Yankees might be smart to stay out of it and use some of the young guys round out the pen. I don't know what Vizcaino wants, but the price just went up.

Lastly, CJ Henry is back with the Yankees. This makes the Bobby Abreu trade that much better. Henry certainly looks like a bust, but apparently he needed contacts and when he got them in the last month of the season his bat responded. Putting him in Tampa next year and seeing what happens is a no-risk proposition.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

That's my prediction anyway.

Johan Santana might be available later this off-season should the Twin fail to sign him to a long term deal. The Twins are opening a new park in 2009, so they probably want a marque pitcher to go along with their marque catcher in Joe Mauer.

That being said, should he become available, the Red Sox are likely to make a pitch. The pros: Santana is the best lefty in baseball if not the best pitcher in baseball. He is only 28 and in his prime. A lefty in Yankees Stadium is always a good thing. The cons: He will cost a ton to acquire. Even if he is acquired, it will take a ton of cash to sign him ($20mm a year for 6 years).

The larger question for the Red Sox is that in order to get him, we as fans are going to have to say goodbye to 2 or 3 top prospects. Not the Michael Bowden's or Aaron Bates', but the Jacoby Ellsbury's and/or Clay Buccholz's.

The Red Sox have worked hard to build up a farm system. Winning the 2007 World Series proved that not only have they worked hard at it, they've also succeeded with Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Manny Delcarmen contributing (Youkilis I believe was a draft choice of the Dan Duquette regime). With that in mind, they can choose to use the talent or trade the talent (or a little of both). Using the talent means costs are contained given the current salary structure for young players. But talent doesn't always translate into quality MLB performance, so trading unproven talent for proven talent generally yields better returns. Of course that isn't always true, but with a skilled front office, you'd hope that trading for a Johan Santana would help your squad, right?

If I'm the Red Sox front office, I make a pitch.. You have to. Coco Crisp is in no matter what as the Twins need a CF should they lose Torii Hunter. Then I offer either Jonathan Lester OR Clay Buccholz, but not both. Lastly, I top off the offer with prospect that is further away like a Justin Masterson or Nick Hagadone. If that isn't enough to get the job done, then see you later. That would mean a team like the Yankees would have to beat the Red Sox offer and it means they are giving up a Cano or Cabrera, Hughes OR Chamberlain and a Kennedy. Remember, they'd have to beat that offer, one would hope. I think Cano is a better talent than Crisp, so they have the edge there, but he doesn't play CF, not yet anyway.

I do not like the idea of having to face Johan 3-4 times each season should the Yankees land him. I believe at the end of the day he winds up a Yankees. Why? They are far less inclined to rebuild (see the $400mm they've committed this off-season so far) and probably have more pitching talent to trade than do the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees starting pitching wasn't good last year and being able to plug in Santana for 225 IP would be a huge boost.

So there you have it and I'm not apologizing for the teaser title.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

The Yankees added Jeff Marquez, Steven White and Francisco Cervelli to their 40-man roster today. The moves were made because it is the deadline to add players to the 40-man which protects them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

With these additions and the addition last week of Scott Patterson, the Yankees have 39 players on their 40-man roster. That does not include any of the free agents they have supposedly resigned, so the Yankees will have some work to do to get back under 40.

Of the four guys, Patterson could be in the bullpen out of camp, he dominated at AA, but he is 28. Marquez is an interesting guy, but I think he will be moved to the bullpen. White has to be considered in the second tier of Yankees prospects. He has shown a pattern of getting to a new level in the minors, struggling at that level and then doing well the following year. That does not bode well for him in 2008 in the majors, but we will see.

The most interesting name is Cervelli. His .287/.387/.397 line in Tampa doesn't look very impressive until you note that the league OPS was a .713, putting Cervelli .081 points above it. He will have to prove he can keep hitting when he goes to Trenton this year, but at least there is someone who can be called up to give the Yankees a third catcher in September.

One name not on the list is Eric Duncan. It's not a shock, because Duncan just hasn't been good enough to merit inclusion, but it means they could technically lose him in the Rule 5. Then again, I don't know if a team would be willing to keep him in the majors for an entire season.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 06:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Phil Pepe has had a great career writing in New York, but this piece is awful.

I don't know if this was an assignment he couldn't refuse, but between this quote:

"Now, because of Hank Steinbrenner's patience, determination and the courage to stick to his guns, Posada is on board and Rodriguez and Rivera are expected to soon follow. Can Pettitte be far behind?"

and the not so subtle swipe at the disaster that is Jim Dolan:

"We have seen the damage that can be done when the son tries to outdo the father; just look at the mess on Eighth Avenue and 33rd. Street. That's clearly not the case here."

This just doesn't seem like a Pepe product. This guy wrote "Billyball" and countless other great baseball books. Now he is doing this?

Hank, we get it, you are in charge. I suppose you never had a chance to be understated, not growing up with your father. But, try and learn that sometimes less is more. You don't need to be the story all the time, you don't have to always offer an opinion. Your Dad ruined far too many players and managers with his constant meddling, please, please learn from that.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

So far this offseason I have promoted an idea for a total rebuild of the Yankees and an idea for a spending spree, so there is logically one more place to go, the middle ground.

In the middle ground we will try and use the farm system, but also supplement it with some spending. I think it is probably the most likely approach the Yankees will take, but it requires two admissions. First, for everyone who thinks the offense will be fine next year consider the following. Everyone is a year older and with the exceptions of Cano and Cabrera that isn't a good thing. Two, the Yankees do not have any hitting prospects that you can project as major league starters in the next two years.

The age is a very important factor because it is reasonable to assume that most of the regulars will not improve on their 2007 numbers and some of them will see declines. You can expect Cano to improve and maybe Melky (more on him later) but the net effect of all of this means the offense should be weaker than the one that scored 968 runs last year. How much weaker is the key question because you can create doomsday projections (Posada breaks major bone, Jeter jailed for failure to pay taxes) or you can just generally say "weaker" and realize what that means.

And what that means is barring the addition of another bat, the Yankees need to give up less runs in 2008 than they did in 2007 to offset the runs they won't score. Luckily, that seems like a reasonable proposition right now because the Yankees have a lot of young pitchers and one would expect 30 starts from Phil Hughes in 2008 will be better than the 30 starts the Yankees got in 2007 from the combination of Igawa, Rasner, DeSalvo and Clippard.

But, the work isn't done just by writing in Hughes, Joba and Kennedy into the 2008 rotation. You still don't have Andy Pettitte and the Yankees need to account for that. Without Pettitte and his 215 innings, the Yankees have a big hole in their rotation. Considering the work that Kennedy, Hughes and Joba did in 2007, you probably should not expect the Yankees to let any of them pitch 180 innings, and I think 160 or so would be a good guess. That means they are either going to be skipped in the rotation or pulled out of games earlier. I favor the prior approach if the Yankees have Andy back because you can go to a quasi six-man rotation with Mike Mussina from time to time. If Pettitte doesn't return, Mussina is your fifth starter and if that is the case, I think you go to free agency and add a starter. I don't want to add a big contract, but someone who could give me some innings and isn't going to look for a huge deal. I think Job Lieber would be a guy who makes sense.

And, you have to address the bullpen on some level. Rivera's back (reportedly) which is good, but he is going to need some help. Farnsworth may be getting a new manager who might believe in him, but I don't. The Yankees can bring Vizcaino back, but I view him as more of complementary piece. Edwar Ramirez seems to me to be a one-trick pony and that trick fails too much for me to trust him in big spots. I think Ohlendorf has potential, but he is untested. I put him in the 2008 pen, but I still want someone else in there to help get the ball to Mo. In addition, I want a lefty in the pen just not a Myers-type. Two guys who I would contact are Kerry Wood and Eddie Guardado. Both are coming back from injuries and both might not want to come to New York, but I am going to try and sign them to incentive-loaded deals.

Now that the pitching is squared away, let's look at the hitting. I am willing to take a flier on a Duncan/Betemit platoon at first mainly because I don't see any good free agents out there. I will say it one last time, Hideki Matsui should pick up a first baseman's glove and learn the position. The Yankees can make noise about putting Giambi there, but he is almost guaranteed to break down if they try that. I can't really think of a realistic trade target, so internal will be the way I go here.

And that brings me to Melky. I like Melky, I like watching Melky, but I am not sure if he is the solution in center going forward. Yes, he just turned 23, but his season numbers of .273/.327/.391 are a disappointment. Melky has shown flashes, but he regressed in 2007. I am not saying you run him out of town, but considering the free agents available who can play center right now, I wouldn't hold up a trade over Melky either. (As and aside, Rowand would be my choice of the three)

For the bench I am willing to go with youth as well. It sounds like Molina is back and we know Duncan and Betemit will be there in some role and of course there is Giambi. Assuming the Yankees don't try and go with 12 pitchers again (please) that leaves one spot and I give that to either Gardner or Gonzalez. Gonzalez probably makes more sense as an infielder, but Gardner would give you speed on the bench. Neither one is going to dazzle with the bat, but the Yankees have Giambi, Duncan and Betemit to pinch hit most days.

So, there you have it the moderate plan. Supplement the roster with some free agent signings, but nothing huge. Mix some more veterans in and some rookies and see how that goes.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)

While it isn't official, ESPN is reporting Mike Lowell has agreed to the framework of a 3 year, $37.5mm deal ($12.5mm per). Peter Gammons said Lowell could have had a 4 year deal from 2 other teams, but wanted to stay with the Red Sox. For those who were questioning the things that were important to Lowell, now you know. And as I mentioned yesterday, this is great work by the Red Sox. They get back an important piece at their price.

With this signing, the Red Sox have taken care of a all of their big outstanding issues. 25-man Roster:

c - Varitek
1b - Youkilis
2b - Pedroia
3b - Lowell
ss - Lugo
lf - Manny
cf - Ellsbury
rf - Drew
dh - Ortiz
bench - Crisp
bench - Cora

sp - Beckett
sp - Matsuzaka
sp - Schilling
sp - Wakefield
sp - Lester
sp - Buccholz
rp - Papalbon
rp - Okajima
rp - Delcarmen
rp - Tavarez

That leaves 4 spots open, a back-up catcher, a bench outfielder, a utility guy (with OF and IF capability, ala Hinske) and 2 pitchers (or 1 pitcher and another bench guy). Usually at this point, there is a ton to figure out and many questions to answer, but 2007 is different. Peter and I discussed this today, the lack of talent in the free agent pool means most, if not all of the major decisions are done. All that is left for Boston is to trade Crisp, fill out the bench and settle on the rest of the bullpen. Those are relatively minor decisions when discussing the 2008 Red Sox.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 02:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

For those of you who haven't heard, Rob Neyer suggested Hankenstein as a nickname for Hank Steinbrenner and I think it is kind of catchy.

Anyway, Tim Marchman has an excellent piece in the NY Sun today about Hank and his impact on the Yankees. For those of us who think Hank should zip it, it is a sobering reality check.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

ESPN radio says that Buster Olney, of ESPN.com, is reporting that the Red Sox are close to re-signing Mike Lowell. Now take that for what it is worth as I have been up and down ESPN.com and cannot find a link. Olney's daily report is from Sunday, so I am guessing when they update to today's report, we will see something.

Extra reading. I found this on ESPN.com and hadn't seen it. This bond might explain the reason Boston exercized teh option on Tavarez. Tavarez is one of a kind...

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Update: Olney apparently said on ESPN Radio that Lowell is close to signing a 3 year, $36mm deal from the Red Sox. I'll believe it when I see (read) it. If this ends up being true, it explains why guys like Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington are making baseball decisions and not us. Also, Olney's blog is now updated to reflect the Red Sox/Mike Lowell situation.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Ok, so the rumors are that Rivera has come to his senses and accepted the Yankees deal. That means New York has probably retained three of their four big free agents and only Pettitte is a question mark at this point. So, what should the Yankees do at this point?

Since rebuilding is obviously not in the cards, how about throwing some serious cash around? How about the Yankees go out and spend like only the Yankees can spend? On what you ask? Consider the following.

First, go and offer Francisco Cordero $40 million for the next four years to setup/close. I say both because let's face it, chances are Mariano is going to stop being effective at some point in the next three years. So, get Cordero in for a ridiculous number as a setup guy, but you also get Mariano's replacement in the same move. This clearly sends Joba to the rotation, where he will be needed.

Get Vizcaino back for three years and maybe $12 million? Whatever it takes, just sign the guy.

Next, give Pettitte more money to leave Houston. I am sure he is torn by his family obligations, but at some point he will sign for a paycheck. Maybe the price is $18 million, maybe it is $20 million, I would find out and get him back.

Then head to Minnesota and offer them Hughes, Melky and Horne for Santana. This may or may not get it done, but I think it at least keeps the conversation going. If you have to, throw in Kennedy, but under no circumstances give away Joba or Cano.

Give Giambi and Farnsworth away, even if it means getting 25% of their salaries back. They are no longer needed here.

Lastly, sign Andruw Jones to a monumental two-year deal. I am thinking two years for $45 million or so. Adding Jones takes care of the hole in center and adds a potent righty bat to the lineup. Overpaying him for two years gives you time to see if Austin Jackson is for real.

So, when you add it all up, what do you have? You have a team that just added around $30-40 million in payroll and has a pretty awesome lineup and rotation.

Damon-LF
Jeter- SS
Abreu-RF
A-Rod-3B
Matsui-DH
Jones-CF
Posada-C
Cano-2B
Duncan/Betemit-1B

Santana
Wang
Pettitte
Joba
Mussina

And you have Rivera with Cordero and Vizcaino setting up and a bunch of young arms coming out of the pen (Ramirez, Ohlendorf, Britton, Cox, Sanchez, etc.)

That team should score runs by the bunch and with Santana anchoring the rotation, do well in the playoffs. Nothing is guaranteed, but I would take my chances with this club.

Of course there are other approaches and we will discuss those more in the upcoming week.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

The Boston Herald and Boston Globe are both reporting that Mike Lowell's suitors now number one. The one being the Red Sox. The Globe sites ESPN's Peter Gammons who said he believed the Yankees had withdrawn their offer to Lowell with the signing of Alex Rodriguez.

That means he has a 3-year deal worth something in the $36mm to $42mm range from Boston. Word is he wants a 4th year and who can blame him?

Both the Globe and Herald are suggesting he might make a decision this weekend. My concern is that both the Anaheim Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers are making a play for Florida Marlins Miguel Cabrera. The loser might be apt to make a run at Lowell if he is still on the market. So it might make sense to Lowell's team to wait things out. That being said, you can be sure the Red Sox offer isn't not going to last forever. Their leverage is that they can withdraw their offer at anytime and I'm sure Lowell knows this.

So there is risk in any decision. Lowell can wait to see if a better offer comes along, but get left holding the bag if Boston withdraws its offer (and Boston would then be dealing from strength), or he can sign now with Boston (but potentially leave money on the table if either LA club were to have offered a better deal). The Red Sox risk losing Lowell too should they jank their offer. No matter what, it really does seem that Lowell has 1 legit offer on the table now and that is from Boston. Seems like a no-brainer to me Mike. Let's sign that contract and enjoy the next 3 seasons.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Looks like #2 might be in trouble with the law.

I know a lot of people who also claim to be Florida residents but spend a lot of time in New York so Derek isn't alone, but you would think a guy who makes $20 million a year wouldn't miss the roughly 10% it costs the rest of us to be residents of this great state and city. (Note to any tax officials reading this. By saying "know" I mean I have heard that some guy down the street, a street I don't really know the name of, may have gone to Florida last month to visit his sick grandmother. On his way to the airport, I am pretty sure he stopped off at a New York tax office and made an estimated payment, but I am probably confused about the whole issue and I could never testify in a court about any of this. Wait, I forgot what my name is.)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 01:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe is reporting that the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles have NOT offered Mike Lowell a deal. So if you believe reports, he has offers not from Atlanta, St. Louis, or Philly, but instead New York (Yankees) and Boston. The Angels are after Miguel Cabrera. If they fail to get Cabrera, perhaps they will turn their attention to Lowell. But just how long will the Marlins negotiate before they pull the trigger on a deal for Cabrera?

When matched up against all the reports in the last 24 hours, Lowell has 2 offers, from the Yankees and Red Sox. In the words of Fletch: "Irwin M. Fletcher you choose..."

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

You know the thing that strikes me about a story like this isn't how improbable this outcome seemed a few days ago. Instead it's how all of this happened without anyone being the wiser to it. While all of the press was out chasing the latest rumors, all of this happened, LAST WEEKEND!

I mean seriously, you have to give everyone involved in this props for dropping the cone of silence on these proceedings. Considering that we live in a 24/7 news cycle, it really amazes me that this thing didn't crack until apparently all of the interested parties wanted it to.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This story is interesting on two fronts. First off, it confirms what many of you have suggested, Hank's mouth is costing the Yankees. And it tells you that Mo wants a fourth year.

Look you cannot begin to calculate Rivera's worth to the Yankees these past 12 years. The guy has been lights out and his plaque belongs in Monument Park as soon as he retires. But, the economics of baseball mean that you just can't make a bet on a fourth year with him. Based on his career, Mariano has pretty consistently pitched 70-something innings a season. So, if the Yankees offer of $15 million a season is true, they are willing to pay him about $200,000 an inning next year! (Roger Clemens just got about $175k per inning)

All of those assumptions are based on the idea that Mo stays healthy throughout his deal. If he gets hurt, the math gets even uglier and pitchers in their late 30's and early 40's almost always get hurt for some part of the season. The Yankees have been burned by plenty of guys who fit that age demographic over the past few years. From Randy Johnson to Kevin Brown to Roger last season, age got the best of them. It gets the best of all of us and betting against it is always going to make you a loser. The Yankees can roll the dice and pray that Mo stays healthy for four years, but it is a stupid gamble. If he insists on the fourth year, I would thank him for everything and wish him well in the future. Someday the Yankees were going to have to replace Rivera and this might be that moment.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has this to say about the Lowell situation. The key being he has talked to a source in the Atlanta organization who said Lowell has not been part of their planning and rumors out of St. Louis suggest they aren't interested either, both run contrary to the WHDH report from yesterday.

That does leave New York in the running as well as Anaheim.

Also from the Herald, Tony Massarotti has this to say about the Lowell situation. He indicates that Philadelphia also has interest, but there are no details of an offer.

Massarotti suggesst that the time is quickly coming that Lowell has to figure out what he should do:

4 years, $48mm - $60mm from someone like NY or Anaheim.

or

3 years, $36mm from Boston (ESPN is reporting it could be 3 years worth as much as $45mm).

Of course if Lowell is still productive after 3 years, he can re-up with Boston or someone else. But that is no guarantee (which is why Boston isn't budging on their offer). So if he signs with Boston, he is leaving 1 year and between $12mm - $24mm. That is a bunch of money.

Again, my heart tells me to go to 4 years. I mentioned this the other day too, why not offer a vesting 4th year option that has fairly easy triggers? At the very least Boston gets some certainty out of the 4th year. But get ready for disappointment Boston fans.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 01:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Wow, this ARod saga is getting out of hand. Glad I'm not a Yankee fan. Talk about being conflicted.

Of greater importance to Red Sox fans is the status of Mike Lowell. WHDH TV 7 is reporting that 4 teams have offered Lowell a 4 year deal with total money in the $55mm - $60mm range. WHDH says the teams are the Angels, Braves, Cardinals and Yankees. The Yankees want him to play 1b.

Now if the Red Sox really want to re-sign Lowell, they have to go to 4 years. If the reports are true that Boston has offered 3 years, $36mm, then a 4th year would drive that to $48mm, below the range listed above, but probably enough to get him to sign.

I have no idea which way the Red Sox will go should they lose Lowell. But the key is, despite what I am suggesting, giving him a 4th year, the Red Sox have a track record on limiting the length on contracts. Just ask Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez. Both the Damon and Martinez decisions were widely criticized in Boston at the time, but both have to be considered the right move. Pedro had a good 2005, but was an average pitcher in 2006 before undergoing surgery missing the rest of 2006 and most of 2007. Damon gave the Yankees a good 2006, but struggled in 2007 and ended up in leftfield. His power numbers aren't what you want from a leftfielder.

Of course it will be sad if Lowell goes as he was such an important part of the team, but that is baseball and you can be sure the Red Sox front office has set a value on Lowell and there is little wiggle-room. I was about to say I wish they'd done the same with J.D. Drew, but that grand slam was huge.

I am finding it difficult to find much news on the Lowell negotiations leading me to believe there isn't much action between the Red Sox and Lowell camps at present. The further leads me to believe that the Red Sox are sticking to their guns.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

OK, so I am reading all these various reports about this whole mess and I am beginning to think that Scott Boras knew exactly what he was doing here.

Consider that before the opt-out, the Yankees were on the hook for at least $81 million for the next three years. With escalator clauses it would have probably worked out to $91 million. Then add in the proposed extension they were going to offer, supposedly $28 million a year for 5 years. which works out to an additional $140 million. That means you have the Yankees originally on the hook for $231 million and eight more years or $28.75 million per year- but $21 million of that was paid by Texas which makes it $210 million and $26.25 million per season. If the deal that has been reported is signed ($275 million at 10 years) the Yankees increase their obligation by another $44 million and 2 years and the average value is $27.5 million a year. And, many reports peg the potential deal at around $300 million with incentives.

So, the Yankees end up extending a deal for two more years than they were originally prepared to do and actually increase their annual outlay by $1.25 million a season. Boras also gets his client another $44 million and sets another record for biggest contract in sports history. How is this a "win" for the Yankees? Maybe I give Boras too much credit, but I can't help but wonder if this was his plan all along. Sure, he looks bad, but does he care when he grabs his 10% of the deal? Could he have realized all along that $350 million was absurd and the Yankees were his best shot so it was just about grabbing a bigger amount of Yankees' dollars?

I still think this all ends up for nothing and until I see a signed contract I will maintain that, but the final details of a potential Yankee contract would be fascinating to see.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 03:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Bill Madden argues in the Daily News today that Cashman made a mistake by not extending Rivera and Posada back in March. Well, hindsight is 20/20 and that is the hole in this argument. What would have happened if Posada didn't hit this year or Mariano couldn't close anymore? Cashman took a risk and lost, but that doesn't mean it was a dumb decision.

But, if there is one thing you want to see that Brian has learned from his risk is to look at this from the other end of the process, the younger end. Cano and Wang are about to become arbitration eligible. That means for the next three years they and the Yankees can exchange figures for salary increases and either agree on a number or let an arbitrator decide. Here's where you save some money, how about offering these guys longer term deals?

This is where the Yankees have never ventured. When Bernie Williams was an up and coming star the Yankees did nothing and went to free agency with him. Derek Jeter got to the point in arbitration where the club was offering $14.25 million and he was asking for $18.5, before the Yankees finally gave him a contract. Contrast that with the Red Sox and their approach with Nomar. They signed him after his first full season in the bigs and ended up with a well below-market deal with him as a result. They reached extensions with Beckett and Crisp when they got them via trade and while the Crisp deal doesn't look great, Beckett earning $32 million over the next three years is a steal.

If the Yankees want to take some risks, this is where you do it. Sign some of these younger guys to deals now. Get Cano and Wang settled before the arbitration process starts. Is it too early to talk to Joba and Hughes? Maybe, but considering the price of young pitching today, locking them up could be the smartest decision they could make.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

This post could also be titled "Oh crap, we lost Lowell."

Seriously, what if Mike Lowell says no to Boston and ends up in Florida (once Miguel Cabrera is traded)? Boston will have a hole to fill. Let's eliminate one idea right away. There should be no moving Kevin Youkilis to 3b..