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What If?

Just spitballing here, but what if the Yankees did something totally out of character this offseason and did a complete rebuild of the team?  What if besides agreeing that Hughes, Joba and Ian are in the rotation they didn't resign Posada and Mo, let A-Rod walk away and traded some veterans for more prospects? 

Would it cost them anything except tv ratings?  I don't think so because the Yankees are about to enter a 2-3 year period where every ticket they have is going to be sold.  Think about it, next year is the last time baseball will be played in Yankee Stadium.  How many people are going to want to go at least one last time?  And in 2009, how many people are going to want to go and see the new ballpark?  

So, if the tickets are going to be sold anyway, what about a two-year rebuilding plan. Let's put Duncan in right for a season and see what happens.  Let's get some young hitting prospects in some trades and see what happens.  It will never happen, but the Yankees would probably be much stronger down the road if they did do it. 

Comments

a fear of the dark ages (80's) keeps them from doing something smart like that Peter.

Do they have position players in the pipeline? Like a catcher, 3B, SS (Jeter is no spring chicken either)?

Peter, Peter, Peter. You are suffering the agony of watching the Sox waltz into the World Series by beating two guys (Sabbathia and Carmona) that the Yankees made look like Koufax and Drysdale.

Rivera's got another 2-3 years left, as does Posada. A-Rod is the best player in baseball. If they could trade some young talent to get a guy like Santana, great. But let's not blow up a pretty good team.

Peter, why are you worried about the tv revenue and revenue in general?

As for your idea, what else would you do? Give us some clarity on who would be in the rotation and like-up.

I don't understand all this rebuilding talk? The Yanks have been and are going to get younger but there is no need to force All-star veterans still at the top of games [looking for 1-3yr deals] out the door when there is no one to replace them just for the sake of "rebuilding". If you want to deal either Damon or Matsui okay. You want to try Duncan over Abreu in RF, I disagree but okay.

Letting A-rod walk along with Posada, Rivera and then Pettitte you go from contender to out of it by the All star break. If Pettitte, A-rod, Mo, Po and Abreu return the payroll will remain close to unchanged from this year [Torre's replacement will get $4-5mm less a year & no Clemens] and the team will be much better than last years team. A-rod will be a + player for another 5-7yrs. 3yr deals to Mo & Po are a luxury the Yanks can afford. Especially with Giambi, Moose, Abreu, Pettitte [$66mm] all off the payroll in 2009 and replaced internally.

I think its exciting to think about young players coming in and doing well but I think you are giving yourselves WAY too much credit to think, if the Yanks are 12 games below .500 at the all star break, anybody is going to be THAT keen to watch O-dorf and his 5.75 ERA and 8 bln saves coming out of the pen in th 9th or that interested to see if Duncan breaks the strike out record for Yankee RF in a season.

The Yankees can put a team togther that can and should contend next season without losing roster flexability for 2009 and beyond and THAT is the smart thing to do.

BL- They have some, but they are in the lower levels and they need more.

Corey

I am not sure that's it. I see a team with every position player except two on the downslope age-wise. Posada was amazing, but what catchers hit in their late-30's? Mariano will be 38 before next season, is a 3-year deal to him a good idea?

Andy

I am not worried about the revenue, just the opposite, I think the tickets for the next two seasons are sold already.

Peter,

I agree wholeheartedly that the approach you described is the best way to go. But do the Yankees have the necessary talent in place to scout/identify and develop players in a sustainable way over the long term, and moreover in a manner superior to most other teams? In theory, a wealthy team like the Yankees ought to be able to this as well as, or better, than any other team because of their resources. And I believe that Brian Cashman really does get it, because he has spoken explicitly, especially with respect to pitching, that his ideal approach would be to develop talent from within and rely much less on the crap shoot that is the free agent market. Unfortunately, I fear that after 34 years of the "Steinbrenner way" of running things, the Yankee organization is thoroughly suffused by people with no patience to do things the right way. The organization is "culturally biased" with the unhealthy attitude that they must win the World Series every single year, and that anything less is a shameful disgrace. This is crazy. It is just not practical. Heck, it's not even healthy. Further, neither the fans nor the media really have the patience for a slow, methodical rebuilding process. If someone doesn't produce right from the get go, they want to run him out of town. Look, some people have been screaming for years that they want the Yankees to develop from within. But then Wang has a tough ALDS and right away they want to trade him for J. Santana of the Twins -- who might require $30m/year for God knows how many years to lock up. Well guess what, we can't have it both ways. We can't on the one hand scream for the Yankees to re-sign Posada, Rivera, A-Rod for however much money and years they want, and then complain in 3 years, when they are no longer producing because -- duh, they're old -- that the Yankees are saddled with overpaid over-the-hill has-beens.

I frankly wouldn't sign Rivera or Posada for more than two years, not at their age. I also wouldn't give A-Rod -- or anyone else -- #30m/year, and I certainly wouldn't do it for 12 years. I didn't like the Giambi contract at the time it was announced. I thought seven years was at least two years too many. That contract was way over the top. People ask, but gosh, what if A-Rod -- gulp!! -- signs with the Red Sox?!? My answer is "So what?". He is, in my opinion, the best player in the game, a supreme talent, and a first-ballot hall of famer. But he is still only one man. He came up in 1996 and every one of those years teams other than A-Rod's have won the World Series. That is not meant as the familiar knock against him that we often hear/read -- it is offered merely as proof that it is possible to win without the best player in the game on your roster. The Yankees need to stop obsessing about the Red Sox (and, to a lesser degree, the Mets) and focus on building the best team they can. They need to focus on the YANKEES. Sure, they can and should use free agency to add the finishing touches that help a competitive team become a champion. But the approach should always be to use free agency to complement what they've built, to fill in the missing pieces. You can't use free agency to build a champion. At least, historically, it has not been possible in North American sports (I'm staying away from European soccer -- where salaries can get just as crazy -- because I don't know enough about it). Player development and judicious trades will always need to come first. This is how the '76-'78 and '96-'01 Yankees were mostly built, by Gabe Paul, Gene Michael and Bob Watson.

Unfortunately, it looks like Hank Steinbrenner is a bit too much like the old man. And as for Randy Levine, don't get me started. He creeps me out.

Tim

I am would imagine that yes Duncan might strikeout 200 times and yes Ohlendorf would struggle as the closer, but I think that all the tickets in 2008 and 2009 are getting sold, regardless of the product on the field.

My suggestion relies on that being a correct assumption, it could be wrong. And, while I very much want to see Mo and Jorge back, I worry about any deals longer than 2 years for each of them. I agree that A-Rod is much more of a sure thing, my problem is I keep looking at the lineup and wondering who else can be expected to improve besides Cano and Cabrera? If everyone gets old at once they are cooked too. It's a fine line they have to dance.

Peter, I agree the tickets will get sold. Who is going to drink the $8 beer and eat the $12 burger? Shirt sales, caps, etc? You see Duncan, O-dorf, Edwar jersey's selling?

I think its an interesting idea but in the end, I don't see the Yanks benifiting either now or down the road by forcing the still productive vets out.

Pettitte: 1yr deals offer the Yanks the flexability they need while they get Hughes Kennedy, Joba, Horne into the rotation. Rushing those guys isn't going to make the Yanks better in 2010. I pray he comes back.

Abreu: He's the best RF they can have and a 1yr deal gives them flexability in 2009. Tabata or Jackson aren't ready. Duncan, if you are looking to shed payroll might be an option but what's his upside? Is playing him going to help the 2009 or 2010 Yankees?

Mo & Po are the only ones who are looking at deals that may last past their sell by date. Unless you think they are going to fall off a cliff during the 2009 season than it is well worth giving them 3yr deals.
(1) The Yanks save $66mm after the 2008 season anyway.
(2) The Yanks have no one that can come close to the production offered by Posada and Rivera.
(3) Posada and Rivera will probably still in the Top 5 of their positions over the next two years.
(4) Signing both of them will give the best chance for the Yanks to win.

That leaves A-rod. I fail to see how the 2010 Yankees will be better without him.

Greg

I think we are on the same page, you just expressed it much more eloquently.

Randy gives me the creeps too!

Tim- See that's the whole thing. I think people are going to go to say goodbye to the old stadium and to see the new one, regardless of the performance of the team on the field. And, the Yankees are going to have at least one guy, Jeter, who can sell a lot of jerseys.

As for the players, Pettitte is out of their hands, he will decide and I agree I would like him back, but the Yankees have tough choices to make on Mo and Jorge. Yes, there is no one better for 2008, but in 2009 will they be good players? How about 2010?

As for Abreu, what if the Yankees did the same thing they did with Sheffield and turned him into prospects? Granted, none of those guys has done anything for the big club yet, but what if they did get 3 guys who could help down the road? What could Mussina get? Would somebody give you any value for Damon or Matsui? These are all questions I would be asking if I were Cashman right now.

Taking apart the team is never fun, but unless the Yankees get more offensive talent in the minor leagues quickly you will look around the diamond on Opening Day 2009 and see at least 5 guys 34 or older. When I look in the minors, I see potential, but it is a long way away. Bridging the gap between Tabata, Jackson, etc., is going to be a challenge.

I keep going back to the Branch Rickey saying- "it's better to trade a guy one year too early than one year too late"

Peter, Okay we agree on Pettitte. Jeter isn't going to sell MORE jerseys. Revenues will be down significantly if the Yanks put out a bad team. If you think 50,000 a night are SHOWING UP all season to say good-bye, I'll just say I disagree.

I have no problem with a sign and trade of Abreu. I think its different than Sheffield. Sheffield was unhappy and without a position. I think the Yanks would do better both now and later with Abreu in 2008 & then getting the two first round picks when he signs somewhere else for 2009 but if we got a good young bullpen arm for him that we controled at a cheap salary, I wouldn't rule out the move.
As for Mussina, I don't know where there would be a market for him. I can't see any team giving up anything that would be ready to help them now for him.
Matsui/Damon, I think one of them HAS to go. I think Matsui in particular would have VERY good value. Damon, I think showed he is a good LF & I'd prefer to keep him.
Mo & Po. The Yanks will most likely be overpaying for their production in 2010 and possibly 2009, but I really believe that even at a reduced effectiveness, they will be very solid players and even by 2010, better than league average. The point is that they aren't blocking anyone anyway. It's not likely that a closer or catcher appears for 2009 and if one does, I hardly see having Posada/Rivera around as detriments to their development.

Yes, 2009 with Jeter, A-rod, Damon, Posada is a bit old but Cano, Melky are young. 1B, LF, RF would be open and the Yanks would have cash in hand to fill spots and DH position availble to Damon and Posada. I'm willing to bet that we'll still be better than most line-ups.

Greg/Peter: I agree, you can win a WS without A-rod but proving that and proving the Yanks would be better off without him are two different things.

Tim-

We will agree to disagree on the revenues and I see your point about Abreu. But, there are a lot of ways to fill the hole you would create by trading him. One way would be to even put Matsui in right. Not the way I would go, but one way.

I don't think Matsui is going anywhere as he has a full no-trade clause. Damon has a partial, so that is more likely.

I would like to see them bring Posada back, but if it is going to be for three years, I hope they plan on moving him to first at some point to protect themselves.

As for A-Rod, I welcome him back if he signs a reasonable (no more than through the 2015 season) extension before opting out. If not, I say let him walk.

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