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Pavano had tommy john surgery and will be out all of next year.

Igawa came on strong in the minors last season and could be very easy to move to a NL West team considering Padres wanted him before he was pitching well in the minors. Also, his salary (4 million) isn't too bad if he were a NL west 4-5th starter.

I just can't see Rivera or Posada going to any other team. The only time I would expect to see them not resigned is if the team needed to cut salary and couldn't afford those two anymore. That's definetly not the case and once October is over with I fully expect they will be resigned.

Joba's lack of innings is going to limit his productivity next year, but keeping him in the bullpen isn't going to help him build up the endurance to be a starting pitcher where he will be much more effective.

I would like to see a variation of the 6 man rotation next year with Hughes, Joba, and Mussina taking a few extra days in between their starts. Kennedy, Pettitte, and Wang to pitch on normal rest.

Tripp, good point on Igawa. Given a team that trades for him doesn't have to worry about the original posting fee might find him a value. Pavano too, forgot about his arm troubles.

I have been reading that Rivera and/or Posada might base their decisions on whether or not Torre returns. Obviously if GS fires (or doesn't re-sign) Torre, it'll make Cashman's job much harder to keep those 2. But money does talk.

Tons will change with this team, but it might be a good thing.

Andy,
I think the points you and Tripp made on the Yanks in 2008 were all very good. However, I do think you both probably need to throw Andy Petite in there with Mo and Posada as far as his desire to come back to the a Yanks team which will possibly/probably be without Rocket, Posada, and Rivera. It seems certain that Clemens won't be back and Posada's silence and Rivera's public comments about the Joe Torre situation are pretty telling in my opinion. They will be younger and that is a good thing for them but they probably will have some holes to fill.
It also looks increasingly like A-Rod and Boras will opt out of the contract. If A-Rod opts out and Cashman is to be taken at his word that the Yanks won't bid for him, I think the Sox out to pony up the cash and offer him whatever position (SS or 3B) he wants to play in Boston. I know he is a tough guy to like sometimes but he is a great player and he might hit 70 HR's playing in Fenway for 81 games. I know it's early but I love to think about how the Sox could get better and to do this A-Rod thing, they would probably need to say good bye to Schillie and maybe move Manny with value after this postseason hopefully (to maybe LAA maybe for Ervin Santana and a middle reliever) and then offer the saved cash ($20M for Manny and $13M for Schill) to A-Rod for however many years it would take. What do you think.

I hope we smoke the Tribe but if we do wind up losing it will be easier to lose to those guys than NY if the Yanks had made it to the ALCS.

Jack, you are right, Pettitte's return will be a function of the Torre decision.

I have to say the thought of ARod on the Red Sox turns my stomach. While it is exciting to think what he could do with this bat in Fenway, I've come to believe that his presense on a team does more bad than good. And at $30m per year, he would take up 20% of the Red Sox budget.

I wonder if Red Sox brass has commissioned Bill James to study the impact ARod has on his team. I assume the statistical information needed doesn't exist other than wins and losses. I worry he could spoil any team chemistry. I'd take Lowell at 4 year, $48m. Sounds crazy, right? But that is only $18 more over the life of the contract than ARod will get in 1 year.

I hear you Andy but man, that guy's bat behind Papi would be money. Plus, all his bad juju team chemistry stuff has come up with the Yanks, right? I don't remember any of that stuff with Seattle or Texas or maybe it is just selective memory on my part. His personality and talent on the Yanks was doomed to create problems from the start with Jeter and the boys firmly entrenched on that team. The Sox are so much more loose than the Yanks (even this year and notwithstanding the fact they aren't even close to the 2004 idiots shennanigans). Maybe with the loose clubhouse in Boston, A-Rod would fit in better and not feel like he had to be all the crap he has tried to be for the last 4 years. What do you think? Am I rationalizing to make him seem like a fit? I love Lowell and he deserves the money but he is getting older by the minute and we didn't even give Johnny Demon (purposeful misspelling) an offer of 4 @ $48M (good thing too from the way he held up for most of the year).

I listened to a radio station out of Philly where I live today and Charlie Pierce was on. I am sure you know who he is as a Boston guy on the sports scene but his commentary was great. He is pretty sure Schillie will be gone after the season and that the odds are against Manny sticking around too. If Manny goes, we need another big bat behind him besides Lowell (who should continue to hit 5th) and I damn sure don't want to pay Andruw Jones that money, especially not with Jacoby just waiting to start full time. What other big bats are out there as FA's or potential trade targets if A-Rod is not the guy?

Jack, don't get me wrong. He would probably kill the ball and hit 50 doubles and 50 HR's. But you asked a good question about this juju impact. Well, take this for what it is worth:

w/Seattle
1999 Seattle w/Arod - 79-83
2000 Seattle w/Arod - 91-71.
2001 Seattle w/o Arod - 116-46

w/Texas

2001 Texas w/Arod 73-89
2002 Texas w/Arod 72-90
2003 Texas w/Arod 71-91
2004 Texas w/o Arod 89-73

So in the 2 instances where he left his team, they had a noticable jump. In 2000, his last in Seattle, they won 91, not bad, but the year after he left, they won 116!!! Crazy.

I worry of course what the Yankees will do if they do not re-sign him. They won 94 games, does that mean if they lose ARod, they win 120?

I appreciate your candor when you said you might be rationalizing with ARod. I'll admit I'm probably doing the same, just in an opposite argument.

I think Manny is going to be here next year as he is signed. Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but here is my prediction next year for a line-up (not the line-up, but positions):

c - Varitek - last year with Red Sox
1b - Youk
2b - Pedroia
3b - Lowell
ss - Lugo (too expensive to move)
lf - Manny (last year on 8 year deal, but RS have 2 year option they can exersize)
cf - Ellsbury
rf - Drew (they have to play him)
dh - Ortiz

That means Coco gets the boot unless he doesn't mind a reserve role. He'd make a great off the bench guy with is defense and speed, but I'm not sure at 28 he is happy with that role. Then again he is going to make $5m next year. I'd be happy with a job like that!

I have Lowell listed @ 3b, but I'm not convinced. Youk might move to 3b while the Red Sox look for a 1b (they are easier to find after all). Based on what I have seen, there aren't many 3b or 1b options via free agency, so a trade might be in order. Reader Matt, has told me he thinks a Manny for Texiera trade might happen. That would give you your 1b in Tex and allow Coco and Ellsbury to handle lf and cf duties.

Man, this is a good comment run as you and I are dealing with some seriously good Red Sox talk.

-Andy

I just can't see GS letting A-rod go to the Sox when he actually has some leverage of the whole Texas paying a portion of the contract over the next two years if they can just work out an extension.

I think the whole Pettitte, Mo, Posada "I'm not coming back if Joe isn't coming back" is well overdone. If Mattingly or Girardi are given the job does Mo think he'd rather be closing for Pinella with the Cubs? Posada and Ozzie Guillen? [thats if the money is even].

In spring training these guys were saying the same thing they are saying now. They'll test the market and they have no loyalty. It's leverage. That's all.

I'm sure these guys want to see Torre back and they are very loyal to him but I think they'll sit down and work it out regardless. They've had wonderful Yankee careers and they'll get very good offers (probably the best offers on the market) to stay. They'll take a look and see that even without Joe, this is a good place to play and its where they'll make the most money.

Texiera is not going to leave Atlanta, write it down. He went to Ga Tech and has been very happy being here. The Braves would rather have Texiera anyway vs. an older Manny. Not happening.

Here is the thing about the A-Rod impact you guys are quoting records on his previous teams. Both Seattle and Texas operated on less budget than the Yankees. Texas was negatively impacted by his contract by not being able to sign pitching. There were other issues with Seattle namely the arrival of Ichiro.

The Sox, if they were to pursue A-Rod would not have to skimp on pitching just like the Yankees.

Here is a scenario for ya - Sox sign A-Rod, keep Manny for the one remaining year then jettison him.

For next year, you have Youk, Pedroia, Lugo, A-rod, Manny, Crisp/Ellsbury, Drew, Ortiz and Varitek.

Savings from Schilling going away allow some room and if the $$$ overbite is only for one year before letting Manny go you do it...

BL- Maybe I'm wrong about GS but that's a HUGE leap to think the Yanks are letting him go.

Texiera is represented by Boras, no? He'll go to the money. Atlanta won't come close to being able to paying him if he has a 40 HR year next year.

Tim, I agree that Texiera is going to go where the $ is. Atlanta made a move for him with no guantee they can sign him long term. He'd make a nice addition at 1b with Youk going to 3b.

I'm not sure I understood your point though. I think you were saying GS will keep ARod, no?

Yes, George would shorten his remaining life in half if A-rod went to the Sox. He isn't going to let A-rod walk.

I truly believe that $28-30mm is the most anyone will give him for 7yrs. He's already making $25mm so the Yanks only need to add 5yrs at $28-30mm which they'd be stupid not to do and they'd need to come up with additional $6-10mm over the next two years. The Yanks will throw him a 5yr extension in the range he wants and they'll include a signing bonus of $6-10mm paid over the next two years to make him whole on a contract he'll get on the free market.

The Yanks still would look at it as getting Arod for $23mm per for the next 7yrs in a deal that suits their salary constraints. With Giambi, Abreu, Moose, Farns, Pavano, Damon, Matsui all coming off the books after 2009, they'll be able to pay Arod $28mm NO PROBLEM!

All this opting out crap is posturing. Boras to get to squeeze the Yanks to extend and pay up a hnadful of millions of dollars and the Yanks to say, don't think you can lever our offer. The first one will be the best one.

The new wrinkle I've heard is Boras is asking Texas what they'd give A-rod to walk. So Texas which is on the hook for $28mm bucks may turn around and say, listen we'll give you $14mm lump sum to opt out. Then A-rod says to himself, hey I can make $28mm per & get a $14mm pay out. Texas saves itself $14mm bucks and the Yanks get screwed because it halves their advantage in the "extension market".

I think that is legal on the Texas thing and it is a new wrinkle for sure.

The bottom line is Boras wants two things. To extend but he also wants A-rod to get a piece of what Texas is paying the Yankees to play for them.

Tim, the only problem is if he opts out and gets a new extension from NY, they lose the $10 or so subsidy Texas kicks in per season. So if they give him a raise to $30m, it really is the raise of $5m plus the fact they are now responsible for Texas' portion of $10m. So they are giving him a $15m raise.

That said, these are the Yankees we are talking about and they are moving into a new stadium in 2009, so money really isn't the issue, especially when those contracts you mentioned fall off. If ARod really wants to stay with NY, he would keep his current contract (and option years) intact and then sign an extension beyond that (your idea I think). That would mean he'd be a a Yankee through 2015. That would be the softest financial blow to the Yankees. Ok, enough on ARod and the Yankees...