Round 1 - Red Sox vs. Angels
Earlier today I posted the roster and rotation for the Red Sox in the upcoming ALDS series against the Angels. I didn't get into my feelings on things. Well, here it goes.
I have no problem with Josh Beckett getting things started. He was the best starter for the Red Sox hands down and has a legit shot at the AL Cy Young award. But, I think starting Daisuke Matsuzaka game 2 and Curt Schilling makes little sense. Here's why:
game 2 @ Fenway
Matsuzaka home - 92.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 75 K, 30 BB, 2.50 K/BB ratio.
Matsuzaka away - 112.0 IP, 4.02, 1.31 WHIP, 126 K, 50 BB, 2.52 K/BB ratio.
The 19.1 more IP on the road yielded 50 more K's (and 20 more BB's).
game 3 @ Anaheim
Schilling home - 82.0 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 12 BB, 5.08 K/BB ratio.
Schilling away - 69.0 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 40 K, 11 BB, 3.64 K/BB ratio.
Ok, so far not so bad, Matsuzaka was better on the road, but Schilling was also better on the road. So?
8-2 record, 109.1 IP, 2.09 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 104 K's, 22 BB, 4.73 K/BB ratio. Those are Schilling's career postseason numbers. There are few better starters in the history of baseball than Schilling. Daisuke, through no fault of his own, has no MLB postseason history. Even though Schilling is of age, I still think they should have gone with him in game 2.
Now, before I get accused of manipulating the facts, let me share with you that Matsuzaka was 8-4 at home and 7-8 on the road despite his stats and Schilling was 4-3 at home and 5-5 on the road. So by record only, the decision as it stands is correct, but we all know w/l records can be misleading.
Now that I've gotten off my chest, I think there is more than meets the eye here as Schilling himself said he was not as strong as he used to be and a long Red Sox half inning meant difficulties for him as he didn't warm up as quickly. His velocity is down and he is not what he used to be, but old horses don't lose it over night and we've seen inspired performances on more than one occasion from Schilling in his career. The Red Sox must be aware of some specific issues and feel that asking Schilling to step up twice in a 5 gamer is not wise. At 14 years younger, Daisuke will get the call in game 2.
Time will tell.
Comments
With all the off days planned, I would have gone with Schilling personally.
If you assume:
Sox win game 1 - rather have Schilling try for home sweep
Angels win game 1 - rather have Schilling try to even it up.
Run production obviously is the key, score more than the opponent, right?
If Drew stays hot, Ortiz stays hot, Lowell and Pedroia stay hot, all will be well.
Posted by: blmeanie | October 3, 2007 09:09 AM |
Andy, I was also surprised that Schilling didn't get the nod in Game 2. Despite age and health, he's a big game player, and I think it would be huge to leave Boston with a 2-0 lead. Maybe Dice-K worked his way to the No. 2 spot with a strong outing in his last start, but given his struggles in the second half of the season, I was thinking Schilling for Game 2. Having said all of that, Tito has more World Series rings than I do, so guess I'll trust his judgement on this one :-)
Posted by: Wade | October 4, 2007 07:39 AM |
Wade, I agree, I have to assume Terry knows what he is doing. That also leads me to speculate that Schilling's health is the primary factor here. Not that he is unable to pitch, but rather he is finding it more and more difficult to recover and get loose. Terry probably wants to make sure he can contribute, but with a lesser work load.
Great game by Beckett last night, huh?
Posted by: Andy | October 4, 2007 09:21 AM |