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September 30, 2007

ALDS - Angels @ Red Sox

It's set in stone, the Red Sox will host the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Southern California Pacific Valley Disneyland Tinseltown Orange County (or LAAASCPVDTOC for short).

Here's the schedule:

Wednesday Oct 3 @ Boston (Beckett vs. Lackey)

Friday Oct 5 @ Boston

Sunday Oct 7 @ LAAASCPVDTOC

Monday Oct 8 @ LAAASCPVDTOC

Wednesday Oct 10 @ Boston

The Red Sox secured the best record record in baseball on Saturday and thus were awarded the 8-day series (vs. the 7 day series the Yanks/Indians will be playing).  This means the Red Sox can trot out their # 1 (Beckett) and # 2 (probably Schilling) starters twice in the ALDS.

2 days rest can only do good things for people like David Ortiz (cortisone shot on Saturday), Kevin Youkilis, Coco Crisp, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Manny Ramirez and the rest of the crew that has bumps and bruises.  The Angels are saying the same thing of course.\

Some interesting stats from the regular season:

.324 BA Mike Lowell

.317 BA Dustin Pedroia

.332 BA David Ortiz

.279 Red Sox team average good for 6th place tie

.362 Red Sox team OBP good for 2nd (behind NYY)

.444 Red Sox team SLG good for 6th

166 HR for Red Sox good for (are you ready for this) 18th best in ML (Milwaukee Brewers # 1 with 231).

867 runs good for 4th behind NYY, Phi and Det

689 walks good for 1st

3.87 ERA, good for 1st in AL, 2nd in ML.

1149 K's for Red Sox pitching staff good for 6th

13 shutouts good for 2nd (San Diego had 20!)

1350 hits allowed good for 2nd

All team stats/rankings are for ML unless otherwise noted.

September 28, 2007

Red Sox - 2007 AL East Division Champs

The Red Sox broke a 13 year death grip on the AL East title tonight.  Good for them.

For those local, it was an interesting experience via NESN.  The Red Sox won at 9:50 pm or so and the Baltimore Orioles beat the Yankees at 10:57 pm.  Red Sox fans stayed at Fenway to watch the Orioles/Yankees game on the big screen for over an hour (as did many at home).  NESN didn't have the rights to the O's/Yanks game, so they showed the crowds (in both Fenway and the clubhouse) and provided game updates after each at bat.  Tom Caron and NESN cameras probably broke MLB's TV rules against "redistribution" by showing TV's and scoreboards showing the actual game.

It was a great scene.  The only negative, and it was a light hearted, yet scaring negative, was when the NESN cameras went into the Red Sox clubhouse to watch the celebration.  Jonathan Papelbon decided to prepare for the event by wearing very little below the belt.  He must have known the NESN camera's were there as well as the NESN reporters.  I guess he just wanted to make a statement.  I'm not sure I will recover from that sight.

I didn't see Manny Ramirez at all during the celebration which leads me to believe he hightailed it home right after the game not realizing there was a chance to clinch.

Of course we needn't focus on the disturbing, but rather the fact the Red Sox did indeed hold on and didn't blow a 14 game lead.  A fun night for the Red Sox and a great issue to have settled with 2 regular season games left.

September 27, 2007

A Case For Hughes

I think it is safe to say that Hughes is back to the form we glimpsed in early May and while I know it won't happen, Joe Torre should really think about using him as a playoff starter.

We know what Mike Mussina is at this point, he is a pitcher who when he is on can pitch six innings or so of effective baseball. Hughes has a much higher upside and he could take over a game and dominate it. I guess we might see that if Clemens can't go, but my suspicion is that Cleveland would select the longer ALDS format and therefore the Yankees will need only three starters in Round 1.

Interesting conversation between Sterling and Waldman tonight speculating on the playoff roster. They felt that the Yankees would take only 11 pitchers and include Sardinha on the roster. The 11 pitchers were: Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, Hughes, Rivera, Joba, Viz, Farnsworth with the final two spots coming from Villone, Ohlendorf or Veras. Based on how he was used and how he performed tonight, I would bet Veras is in the lead right now. They also said that Kennedy won't pitch in the first round, but might be used in later rounds if the Yankees get there. He will travel with the team except presumably October 6th, when he is due to be married.

I will check in tomorrow night with some observations from down the thirdbase line at Camden Yards.

Here's An Interesting One

Of interest to both Yankees and Red Sox fans should be the playoff scenarios in the NL. You could have the ultimate tie-breaker with five teams ending up with the same record. (New York, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Diego, Colorado) If so, you would have tiebreaking games starting Monday and ending Thursday. Since both NLDS's are scheduled to start Wednesday, would baseball move the ALDS to those dates? It would be a pretty wild situation, but it is pretty amazing that with four games left, not one team in the NL has clinched a playoff spot.

September 26, 2007

The Clincher!

I remember being thrilled in 1995 that the Yanees took the wild card because it meant I would finally see Don Mattingly in the playoffs.  1996 made the '97 wild card seem cheap, but this one is very special to me.  Special because I didn't think we would ever see it.  21-29 and left for dead, Chase Wright, Matt DeSalvo and 50 starts by rookies during the year, Shelly Duncan, Hughes' hamstring, Joba and now this. I can't remember a season like this and once again we can look forward to October. 

Give Joe Torre a lot of credit for this.  Just like Bob Lemon in 1978, Torre provided the right demeanor for this team to thrive.  I don't know what will happen to Joe, but if this is it, he went out on a high note, no matter what happens from here.  But, that's for another day, for tonight just sit back and enjoy.

Take A Knee

As nice as it would be to win the division, at this point it simply isn't worth it. Boston can go 3-2 and clinch things no matter what the Yankees do. Instead, the best idea is to get the one more win (hopefully tonight with Wang on the mound) and then go into spring training mode. (And I say this as someone who is going to Baltimore Friday night for the game)

It has been a long season and thanks to a 21-29 start, the Yankees have had to play the second-half of the season like every game is a playoff game. Giving Posada, Jeter, A-Rod, etc., time off to rest is a critical need at this point. Get one more win and then take the regular season off, it's the smart thing to do.

What do you guys think, is the push for the division worth it?

September 25, 2007

Red Sox Line-Up: Tuesday, September 25th

Manny's back.  Youkilis is still out.

2b - Pedroia

lf - Ramirez (hmmm, hitting 2nd, probably to get more PAs)

dh - Ortiz

3b - Lowell

rf - Drew

c - Varitek

cf - Crisp

1b - Hinske

ss - Lugo

Curt Schilling vs. Chad Guadin @ Fenway

Also of interest, Roger Clemens was scratched from his start today.  In fact, he'll miss the entire series against Tamba Bay.  The Yankees have to be wondering just how long his hamstring strain will last.

Clemens Scratched (Again)

While the magic number sits at 1, the Yankees have some serious health problems. Roger Clemens has been scratched from tonight's start and replaced with Kei Igawa. More ominously, the Yankees have announced that Clemens will not pitch in any of the games against Tampa.

Clearly, this is a little more than a hamstring "tweak". How bad it is remains to be seen, but the Yankees have to hope that Clemens can get back on the mound once more before the regular season ends.

September 22, 2007

Clincha!

The Red Sox earned a playoff spot tonight beating the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in a come from behind (after blowing the lead) win.  They are the first team to secure a playoff spot.

A few thoughts:  The Red Sox initially decided to keep the clubhouse closed off from the media to celebrate their playoff birth.  I was thinking just how different this team is than another local team, the New England Patriots.  The Pats are so secretive about this while the Red Sox, and baseball in general, is far more open to media cameras and microphones.

The Red Sox clearly gave NESN orders not to show any players jumping, drinking, or doing anything of a celebratory nature.  All we say was Tina Cervasio doing some interviews (which were far from the celebration).  By the way, I like Tina, but her questions are fairly lame.  Things like "what are you feeling right now" and " what thoughts are going through your head" just don't work for me.  It is a difficult gig she has, so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt.

Tonight was a game where many of the most maligned Red Sox players really came through.  Jason Varitek (game tying home run), JD Drew (2 run HR), Julio Lugo (go ahead 2 run HR) and Eric Gagne (2nd consecutive scoreless inning) chipped in big time.  Good signs indeed.

As I mentioned many times, I hope the Red Sox go for the jugular and win the AL East.  Their rotation is set no matter what and there hopefully Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez will be available Monday or so.

September 21, 2007

Serenity Now

Cheers to Terry Francona for using Eric Gagne in an appropriate capacity Friday night.  Gagne recorded his 2nd "clean" inning as a Red Sox.  Expect to see Gagne in meaningless to semi-meaningless roles over the next 6 days or so and if he succeeds, then expect to see him again in important positions.

Gagne is a wild-card, pardon the pun given the Red Sox quest for an AL East crown.  If he can regain solid stature from here on out, the Red Sox bullpen, along with Jonathan Papalbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Clay Buchholz and Javier Lopez, look to be "pretty good" (to quote J. Peterman).

Stats through 9/20/07: 

Gagne:  9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 1-2 record

Papelbon:  1.96 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1-3 record

Delcarmen:  2.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 0-1 record:

Okajima:  2.28 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2-4 record

Buchholz: 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3-1 record

Lopez:  3.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2-1 record

Aside from Gagne, that's a fairly impressive pen.  Of course Gagne has a far greater track record than most of the guys on this list, so his inclusion could end up being significant.  But he has to prove his worth over the remainder of the season.

Mike Timlin (3.66/1.22/1-1) and Kyle Snyder (3.88/1.41/2-3) deserve mention as they have been ok.  Julian Tavarez has seen some serious action too, but having not pitched since the 12th of this month, I have to assume he is an after thought.

Anyway, good W for the Red Sox.  Tampa Bay is usually good medicine for a losing streak.  Despite striking out 17, they still gave up the win.

Kennedy Scratched

Not sure what is going on, but Mike and The Mad Dog are reporting that Ian Kennedy has been scratched from tomorrow's start.  Clemens moving up to take the start makes the most sense, but no official word yet. 

September 19, 2007

Further Evidence...

...that Red Sox management pays close attention to what I say.  After recommending the Red Sox shut down Hideki "Don't Call Me Irabu" Okajima for a few days, the Red Sox have done just that(ESPN filed this news item under the "NFL" theme, not sure why).

As for Wednesday's game itself, the Red Sox are basically grabbing some ankle and inviting the Yankees to take the AL East.  Jonathan "I'm too good to be called Jon" Papelbon gave it up in the bottom of the 8th.  He came in for Mike Timlin who loaded them up and gave up a grand slam.  That's 4 runs Jonathan and made the already 2-1 deficit even more difficult to overcome.

Way to go.  Of course, I am slightly annoyed and taking it out on some key contributors.  Please give me that.  Papelbon has been great, but it is very frustrating to watch a good team roll over and play dead.  Injuries, a lack of intensity and the possibility of blowing an enormous lead in the AL East is eating at me.  I called it way back this year that NY would never go away.

Consider the line-up tonight:

Drew

Varitek

Hinske

Kielty

Lugo

Those were your 5-9 hitters in Wednesday's line-up.  While Lugo has been fine since the break and Drew for 2 weeks, these 5 guys are not what a $140m roster should yield.  Come on.

This is downright embarrassing.  Coughing up such a lead is not good for one's psyche and could (or perhaps not) send Boston into the playoffs on a major down note.  1 1/2 games people.

UPDATE:  Baseball Tonight highlighted Julio Lugo failing to run hard on an infield grounder that temporarily eluded the shortstop.  Lugo was thrown out just barely.  ESPN showed that he half-assed it to first for the first 45 feet and only kicked it into gear when he say the bobble by the shortstop.  This is inexcusable.  Terry Francona better sit him down next game to send a message to the team that the season is not over.  If they continue to humiliate themselves for the rest of the season, Francona is to blame.  Time to be a manager and deal with this Terry.

We Have A Fourth Starter

Mike Mussina earned a playoff start last night. Torre always wanted to go to him and last night he gave Joe a reason to. Yes, Mussina will probably pitch two more times, but unless Hughes dominates his next time out, this race is over.

And that brings up a great question, which pitchers make this postseason roster? You have to figure that Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, Rivera, Chamberlain, Vizcaino and Ramirez are locks right now. I would assume Hughes and Villone also make it which leaves 1 or 2 spots open right now.

I say 1 or 2 because I am not sure how many pitchers the Yankees will actually take into the playoffs. Conventional wisdom would dictate that you only need 10 or 11, but look at the current 40-man roster. The Yankees only have 15 hitters and numbers 14 and 15 are Alberto Gonzalez and Bronson Sardinha. Neither one of those guys can steal bases and you wouldn't consider their bats to be weapons, so what value would they provide to a playoff team?

That's why I assume the Yankees take 12 pitchers in the playoffs and those final two spots are truly up for grabs. Joe Torre doesn't trust Kyle Farnsworth, so adding him to the roster is a waste, but it's a move the Yankees will probably make to keep his trade value from dissapearing. (They could have him fake an injury too) I am sure Joe would like a second lefty, but I don't see Henn making it so forget that. (don't mention Igawa to me)I think the last guy could be Ohlendorf.

Now Kennedy has pitched the best, but I don't think the Yankees are going to make him a reliever for the playoffs. Bruney did it last year, but he hasn't been good this year and I don't see Joe trusting him in a big spot. Britton hasn't done much and Joe doesn't seem to want to use Veras in big spots. Joe hasn't used Ohlendorf much, but he keeps talking about how he is intrigued by him. Ohlendorf was bombed as a starter earlier this year and his reliever numbers while not dominant, were better.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out over the last week.

September 18, 2007

Gagne is Officially a Disaster

Eric Gagne can't become a free agent fast enough for me.  He, for whatever reason, has been terrible and I think tonight was the final blow.  The Red Sox were in need of a win and had one in their grasp, but Eric Gagne self-destructed and lost the game for Boston.

This is very frustrating.  What is worse is if Gagne has a soft free agent market and accepts arbitration from Boston.  That would be bad.

What was equally frustrating was Francona letting Gagne get himself into trouble and then allowing him to walk the plank.  Come on Terry, you've seen it before with this guy.  Kyle Snyder would have been a better option.  Anyway, I have to assume this was the icing on the cake and Gagne will NOT be on the Red Sox playoff roster (Jerry Remy said on the broadcast that this appeared to be an audition for Gagne).

It's now 2 1/2 games.  I am getting the feeling Terry Francona and Boston management are (or is it "is") just fine with winning the wildcard and not the AL East.  Way to stagger into the playoffs guys.

3 1/2

Leave it to the Red Sox to make things interesting.  Jerks.

With about 11 games left, the Red Sox hold a 3 1/2 game lead on the Yankees in the AL East.  Their magic number is 9 (combo of Red Sox wins and Yankee losses needed to clinch the AL East). For those who think it possible the Red Sox lose the divisional title, fear not, they are 7 games up on the 2nd place wild card Detroit Tigers (which I think makes their playoff magic number 2).

But as predictable as cool weather in the fall, leaves falling on dewy grass and the delightful tanginess of warm apple cider, the Red Sox are blowing chunks late in the season.  I'll give you delightful...

Manny has decided that September baseball games aren't as satisfying as September baseball practice.  Kevin Youkilis is hurt and the pitching and offense seem out of whack.  Other than that, things are great.

And picking up from my last post, JD Drew deserves closer examination.  He has been getting on base and is on pace to score more runs this year than he did last year (85 vs. 78 so far this year).  But check out some of these doosies:

Late and Close -

17(H)/54(AB), .286/.386/.356.  Not bad you say?  Well he has 2 RBI in those 54 at bats.  So he is getting on base but hitting for no power and generating little run production.

2 out Runners in scoring position (RISP) -

14/71, .197/.400/.380.  Another sub .400 slg stat but in this case with 18 RBI.  Still not good overall.  He needs to move runners along.

9th inning -

5/27 - .185/.333/.296, 0 RBI.  Can you believe that?  0 RBI's in the 9th inning all year?!?

Clearly he has been a disaster, but get used to Drew as his contract means he will play and start next year.  Things can only get better though and many talented players have struggled year 1 in Boston or New York (think Carlos Beltran).  There is hope, just maybe not this year.

Another scary development (a development suggests a recent trend, but his is more of a season long trend) is Jason Varitek's strikeouts.  He has 114 so far.  He has always struck out often, but unlike 2004 when he K'd 126 times, he isn't hitting for power or average.  He has a .296/.390/.482 in 2004 and has a .251/.357/.394 in 2007.  He has 13 doubles all season.  The next worse double output on the team amongst starters is 27 (Drew and Crisp).

I've pointed out nothing but worries, but that's because the Red Sox are losing ground in the standings.  They do have some positives to point to.  Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, Dustin Pedroia, Julio Lugo (.296/.331/.411 in the 2nd half), David Ortiz in the 2nd half, Josh Beckett and his 19 wins, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon.

The Red Sox remain a very talented team, but they need to fix a few things and get a few people healthy.

A few notes on Terry Francona.  He has been great and I'm glad he is the Red Sox manager, but he needs to acknowledge and accept the fact that both Hideki Okajima and Daisuke Matsuzaka are tired.  He did take one step in giving Matsuzaka an extra 3 days off before his next start, but he needs to mothball Okajima for a 3-4 days to allowing him to A.)  rest up and become effective again and B.)  prepare him for what hopefully will be an extended playoff run.  It's one thing if Okajima was tired but still pitching well and Francona kept trotting him out there, but he is tired and pitching very poorly (5.06 ERA in August and 11.57 thus far in Sept) yet Francona is still trotting him out there.  He's an Okajima addict.  12 steps Terry, 12 steps.

Line-ups aren't in yet, but don't expect Youkilis and Manny.  Tonight is Lester vs Burnett.

September 17, 2007

Tonight's Lineup-9/17

Damon-CF
Jeter-SS
Abreu-RF
A-Rod-3B
Matsui-LF
Poasda-C
Giambi-DH
Cano-2B
Mientkiewicz-1B

I think Torre is very smart to rest Melky, the guy needs a day off. I think his last one was a month ago against Detroit and he is hitting .190 in September. I am a little worried that this past weekend is going to convince Torre to start Mientkiewicz a lot more. I am not sure why Betemit doesn't get a shot to play, especially against righties.

Big start for Hughes tonight. I think it's down to him and Mussina for the final rotation spot if the Yankees make the playoffs.

The Big Finish

Last night's win was important for a lot of reasons. It allowed the Yankees to take the season series 10-8 after starting out 1-5 against Boston. It capped off a 7-2 road trip. But, most importantly, it kept the wild card lead at 2-1/2 games. Detroit has woken up and they are playing very, very well right now.

Detroit also has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. After playing three games in Cleveland, they should cruise the rest of the way. Three home games against the Royals, three home games against the Twins and a road trip for three games in Chicago. The Yankees start a three game set at home against Baltimore tonight followed by four against Toronto. Then they hit the road for three games in Tampa and three in Baltimore.

I think the Yankees should be able to close the season 8-5. That would force Detroit to go 10-2 to tie them, which doesn't seem impossible when you look at their schedule. The odds favor the Yankees, but things will probably go down to that final weekend.

September 15, 2007

Lineup

I never would have guessed that Jason Giambi would be in today's lineup playing firstbase. After last night's defensive nightmare, I would have figured that Torre would stick him at DH or on the bench for a day, but he hasn't. I give Joe credit for his faith since Giambi's bat should stay in the lineup, but I think Joe needs to back off a bit on playing him there all the time. Giambi tends to break down when he is in the field a lot and I wonder if that played a part in last night's problems more than just a simple lack of ability.

Anyway, the rest of the lineup is the same as yesterday with Matsui at DH and Damon in LF. More after the game.

Message Sent

There are a lot of things you can take away from last night's win, but the biggest one to me is that this team can beat the Red Sox. I remember in 2003 and 2004 when the Yankees were in first and the Red Sox were chasing them, I always felt that none of that mattered because Boston was just as good as the Yankees were. Today, I fell exactly the same way, except it.

Unlike some, I still don't see the Yankees winning the division, but I don't really mind. With or without homefield, the Yankees can beat this team in the playoffs and that's all that matters. Now they have to get in and get past the first round to have that chance.

September 13, 2007

Does This Look Like 10,000 People To You?

This is from yesterday's Marlins-Nationals game in Florida. Announced attendance 10,122. Some reporter counted 375 people.

Now, Florida is a miserable place for afternoon baseball in September (and most of the baseball season unless you like to sweat) and neither team is any good, but 375 people??

MLB really needs to take charge of the situation in Florida and a few other places. Lousy ownership that just pockets the revenue-sharing money is cheating the fans of South Florida and pretending that 10,000 people came to the game because that was the amount of tickets sold is also a joke.

This is a wonderful game, but I worry that is falling further and further behind football in most of the rest of the country outside of the Northeast.

September 12, 2007

The Return of Papi

Wow, nice to see Big Papi win the game for Boston Wednesday night.  A walk-off dinger is something else and David Ortiz perfected it in 2006.  But for some reason, the magic had left him in 2007.  He made up for it Wednesday.

The Red Sox are 5 up on the Yankees entering the weekend series at Fenway.  The Red Sox have Thursday off while the Yankees have a game against Toronto, so the lead will be either 4.5 or 5.5 unless the Rogers Centre has a cave in (and thus a postponement).

Prior to Wednesday's game, the Red Sox had a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.  They had a 93.9% chance of winning the AL East.  With each team (Bos and NY) winning tonight, the % improved for Boston as their "magic number" decreased.  As of Thursday AM, Boston's magic number is 12 (a combination of 12 Red Sox wins and 12 Yankees losses equals the AL East).  For those wondering why I am talking about the Yankees, well, check the name of this site and they have won 7 in a row and have, by far, the best record in baseball since the break.  $191m in payroll buys a ton of talent and the Yankees are still in the hunt...

Some nice developments:

Ortiz on a streak:  Ortiz has 17 HR's since the break vs. 14 before the break.  Sure that total is a far cry from the 54 he hit in 2006, but he is hot now and a hot David Ortiz is a good thing.

JD Drew:  He has been terrible I know, but (I was a supporter of him earlier in the year, but his total and complete lack of power has proved scary.) he has a few hits in the last few games.  Big deal?  Probably, but Red Sox fans have to cling to something.  More on JD Drew later.

Dustin Pedroia:  .325/.389/.451.  Pedroia is a possible ROY candidate and has been playing stellar D.  Pedroia has only made 5 errors at 2b, a position that usual yields 15 + error per season.  .991 /.985% (his vs. league avg 2b) fld % and a 4.47/4.56 range factor (vs league).

Mike Lowell:  Lowell has been a more than solid replacement for Manny, I'm taking my annual 20 games off, Ramirez.  Lowell is hitting .360/.418/.476 since the All-Star break through Tuesday.  Lowell has been super and make the idea of losing him in 2008 a painful thought.  He is hitting for average more than power right now (14 HR's first half, 4 second half), but his average (.300 first half, .360 second half) has made up for it.  His 103 RBI is 2 short of a career high.

Josh Beckett:  Beckett has a better ERA since the break than prior:  3.44/3.05.  He has been the best starter on team hands down.

Jonathan Papalbon:  1.55 ERA entering Wednesday, that after posting a 0.92 ERA in 2006.  HR has been steady and has pitched 15 fewer innings than last season (in the regular season).

Boston has many players doing good things and many players doing more than adequate things, but there are still a few more games to be won and no need to coast.  Big series at Fenway this weekend.

Why Not Six?

I think Mike Mussina earned another start tonight.  He showed me enough that I want to see if he can do it again.  The thing is, I also think the Yankees should keep Kennedy in the rotation, so why not just go to a six-man rotation for the rest of the year?

Think about it, the guys you are counting on in the playoffs, with the exception of Wang, could use the extra rest.  Clemens' elbow is a mess, I am not sure he should even start Sunday- more on that in a minute- and Pettitte probably wouldn't get hurt from the rest.  Wang is really the only guy who should pitch every fifth day since you don't want a sinkerballer to get too strong.  So, why not pitch Kennedy, Pettitte, Wang, Clemens, Hughes, Mussina, Kennedy for the next week and then start Wang against Toronto on the 21st?  That would leave Wang, Pettitte and Clemens in line to pitch games 1,2 and 3 of the ALDS while you could audition Mussina, Hughes and Kennedy for the final playoff rotation spot.  

As for Clemens on Sunday, I think the Yankees shouldn't start him unless they have won the first two games of the series.  At best, the Yankees will head into Boston 4-1/2 games behind the Red Sox.  If they won the first two games of the series, they would be 2-1/2 back with a chance to cut the lead to 1-1/2.  If that is the case, I could see the argument for starting Roger.  Otherwise, I think it is better to bring him along slowly, with the goal of getting him on the mound for Game 3 of the ALDS. Wins are important, but pitching Roger Sunday in Fenway seems to be more about giving him one last game in Boston than what may be more important for the team as a whole.  

The division was lost before July, the Yankees can have another crack at Boston, when it matters in October.  Save Roger's final Boston start for then.   

September 09, 2007

Almost Perfect

You can quibble with the results of this weekend, after all it would have been better if Detroit had lost two to Seattle, but the end result is that the Yankees gained a game in their wild card lead while taking three off of the schedule.

The next three games will be very interesting as Toronto is playing better of late and the Yankees are sending three starters, Hughes, Moose and Kennedy, who are essentially mysteries right now. By giving the Wednesday start to Moose, the Yankees have setup their pitching for the Boston series and beyond, let me illustrate.

As things are now, here is my guess at how the rotation shakes out the rest of the way:

Hughes (11th, 17th, 23rd, 27th)
Mussina (12th, ??)
Kennedy(13th, 18th)
Pettitte (14th, 19th, 24th, 28th)
Wang (15th, 21st, 25th, 29th)
Clemens (16th, 22nd, 26th, 30th)

This maximizes the starts of the top four starters (four each) and puts the three best on schedule to pitch the final weekend if needed. This can obviously be amended if needed and the Yankees could start almost anyone that final weekend (since I am going to Baltimore I can just see it: Wright, Clippard and Igawa). As for the playoffs, they start Wednesday in one of the AL matchups and Thursday in the other, but both AL matchups play their second game on Friday. That means even if Wang makes his start on the 29th, he is ready to pitch by Game Two.

But, I get ahead of myself. The Yankees still need a combination of 16 wins and Tigers' losses to clinch, but the picture looks pretty good right now.

*********

I was totally wrong about the move made to add Ohlendorf to the 40-man. The Yankees put Andy Phillips on the 60-day DL which means he is out for the year. Considering his limited production this year and all the arms in the system, it may be the end of Andy on the roster.

September 08, 2007

50!

Whenever I think of 50 home runs, I always think of Cecil Fielder. I remember watching him absolutely crush two balls against the Yankees in the final game of the 1990 season for home runs #50 and #51. It was remarkable to me at the time because it was the first time I had ever seen it happen (or at least be old enough to appreciate it). Of course a lot has happened in the last 17 years and 50 home runs doesn't seem as impressive as it once was. But, A-Rod is the first Yankee to do it since Maris and Mantle both did it in 1961. So, I imagine for most of us this is the first time we have seen a Yankee do it.

Pretty cool and a pretty good night, apart from Bruney (shut up, meathead). Three up, twenty to go and a chance for a sweep tomorrow.

Here Comes An Army

Scranton got bounced out of the playoffs tonight and the Yankees are going to promote Igawa, DeSalvo, Henn, Karstens, Ohlendorf and Sardinha to the majors tomorrow.

All of those guys are on the 40-man except for Ohlendorf and promoting him will require a roster move. The Yankees could put Andrew Brackman on the 60-day DL, but I have a feeling they might DFA TJ Beam. Beam is the only guy from AAA who wasn't called up and eventhough he had a decent season this year, he is 27 and has obviously fallen way down the prospect list. It will be interesting to watch because the Yankees might have another choice to make soon since Darrell Rasner is rehabbing in the minors (he made two starts in A ball so far) and would have pitched for Scranton if they had gone to a Game Five. Rasner is on the 60-day DL and would need to be added back to the 40-man.

It will also be interesting to see Ohlendorf since he is one of the pieces of the RJ trade and has been converted to a reliever without much success so far. He won't pitch in any meaningful situations, but he will see some major league action.

And, with these moves the Yankees will have 20 pitchers on the staff! I said it earlier in the week, the rules allow it, so you might as well do it. The question is, how will Torre utilize his enormous bullpen?

September 06, 2007

Nice Work

The Yankees did what they needed to, taking 2 of 3 from Seattle and building the wild card lead to three games. With 22 to go, they are in the driver's seat and now need to put the hammer down. Three games against the Royals while the Mariners and Tigers play each other offers a chance to increase the lead before things get tougher next week.

With the day off today and Monday, the Yankees can play with the rotation a lot. They will use Kennedy, Pettitte and Wang this weekend and then Hughes can start Tuesday against Toronto with Kennedy and Pettitte following him and Wang in line to start the Boston series. That means no Mike Mussina and no Roger Clemens until September 15th in Boston. That's when the Yankees will have to use one of them or go with someone else. September 15th is the final day of the International League playoffs, so unless Scranton goes the distance, the Yankees will have a number of choices.

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My only complaint from last night's game is a familiar one, what is Rivera doing in that game? I know he hasn't pitched since Saturday, but Tuesday night Joe used Vizcaino in a blowout and now he is out indefinitely. If Rivera needs work, have him throw on the side, throw BP, throw against a wall, just don't use him in 10-2 games.

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Lastly, is it me or does all the football talk right now annoy you as well? I love football and I will watch tonight's game, but I head one sports radio guy say that "now baseball is over". Seriously, I can't understand that kind of reasoning when you have good wild card races in the AL and NL, and two amazing division races in the NL. Watch football all you want, but don't knock baseball this time of year.

September 04, 2007

That's An Ace

Critics will point to a lack of strikeouts as a major flaw and his somewhat high ERA, but Chien-Ming Wang is an "ace" in my mind. Yes, he doesn't strike people out and yes, he can be hit at times. But, think about when the game is on the line and the Yankees need a big effort, who is the guy you want to see holding the ball?

In my mind it is Wang. Tonight they needed a big win, last week they needed a win for a sweep. In July it was two big wins against LA and Minnesota that got things going for the Yankees. It's funny, but I always think of a game he pitched against Washington last year as when Wang showed he was an ace. I say funny because he lost. It was June 18th and the Yankees were desperate for a quality start because they had burned through most of their bullpen in the first two games of the series. Wang came out and dominated for the first 8 innings, entering the ninth with a 2-1 lead. He got the first out of the ninth, but then gave up a hit and a home run to end things right there. Ballgame over, but Wang had saved the bullpen for later in the season.

I would guess that by the end of 2009, Wang will no longer be looked at as an ace for the Yankees. Hughes will probably be established by then and Joba seems to have the highest ceiling of them all. But, I don't know if I will ever feel as comfortable watching any of them as I do when I see Wang, the guy just knows how to deliver.

Wake Up!

I realized this morning that the last game I saw that the Yankees actuallly won was August 19th. Part of that was because I was on a trip, but another part of that is beacause the Yankees have gone 6-8 over their last 14 and that includes the sweep of Boston.

The main problem as Joel Sherman alludes to today with his clever headline of "Wang and Pettitte and Then Forget It" is that the starting pitching isn't very good. Actually, most of the pitching isn't very good. The Yankees have gone 16-12 over the last month and they have done that with a team ERA of 5.41. So, as the offense cools, the pitching simply isn't there to pick things up.

To their credit, the Yankees have tried to address this. Joba is now a fixture in the bullpen and Kennedy will make another start this week. That certainly helps, but with Roger Clemens missing at lest a start that means Mike Mussina will rejoin the rotation (8.33 ERA over the last month) . Sean Henn (17.27) is back in the minors, but the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes (5.53) every fifth day. Kyle Farnsworth has turned his year around (2.08) but Edwar Ramirez (5.23) hasn't provided a spark since he has surrendered four home runs in ten innings.

At this point, with the wild card really a dead heat (Seattle is tied with New York in the loss column) there is nothing to lose by trying every asset they have. Jose Veras is back in the bigs and should be tried out in singificant relief roles. Baseball allows teams to play the last 25 games or so with expanded rosters and the Yankees should take advantage of that. Other than Andrew Brackman, every other pitcher on the 40-man roster has pitched for the Yankees this year or last. Seven of them are still in the minors and they should all be recalled. Get them up here and send see if quantity can replace quality. Who knows, maybe Chase Wright can dazzle out of the bullpen for an inning here or there. Maybe Mike Mussina would be effective if he knew he was only going to pitch three innings each time out. What about using Clippard/DeSalvo/Igawa and Karstens two innings each in a game? I know it is radical and not traiditional baseball, but the Yankees have to try something else.

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It is sad that Andy Phillips is going to miss the rest of the season. By all accounts, he is a great guy and he has had way more than his share of bad luck. But, it will allow the Yankees the rectify a big hole in their lineup. Phillips hit .292/.338/.373 which just doesn't cut it. I am all for having Giambi play there more because while the defense is weakened at first, it is strengthened if the Yankees put Damon in left and Matsui at DH. (Note for 2008, Damon is a pretty good left fielder so far). Since Giambi at first every day won't hold up for the rest of the year, how about a platoon of Duncan and Betemit at first?

Duncan has certainly earned some playing time and his .800 slugging percentage against LHP speaks for itself. Betemit has hit a big slump, but I think that may be more a function of adjusting to New York and his role here. In his career he has hit .267/.348/.467 against RHP, why not give it a whirl?

September 02, 2007

The Week That Was

The Yankees get humiliated in Detroit Monday, sweep Boston, get humiliated against Tampa Friday and then see the third of their young guns pitch pretty well for a win Saturday. Meanwhile, Seattle loses eight-straight and the Yankees are now two-games up in the wild card. And since I didn't see a single pitch of any of it, I can't really say much more about it. But, I do have a few observations from reading box scores.

1- Bravo to the Yankees for benching Mussina after Monday's pounding and rolling the dice with Kennedy. From what I read, Brian Cashman doesn't think his innings limit (whatever that may be) will be a concern for the rest of the year, so good for them.

2- Speaking of Mussina, why won't the Yankees pitch him in relief? If a starter gets bombed, why wouldn't they call on Moose? I know they are trying to keep him happy, but Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi have shelved their egos, why can't Mussina be expected to as well?

3- Phil Hughes is struggling, which isn't that surprising when you consider his age. The question is, how long can the Yankees keep throwing him out there? His next start is Wednesday in a huge game with Seattle. If he doesn't pitch well, they have to consider putting someone else in his spot.

4- Chris Britton made it out of AAA, this has to be a mistake right?

5- September callups for Kennedy, Veras and Gonzalez with Mientkiewicz activated. I am just confused as to why the Yankees chose to DFA Kevin Thompson and keep Bronson Sardinha. Sardinha may have more of an upside, he is four years younger, but Thompson could help this club now. He can steal bases and play great defense. He may never amount to more than a 4th or 5th outfielder, but that would be a nice thing on the bench for September in my mind.

6- Scranton made the AAA playoffs, so we won't see some additional players for a bit, but I would bet that Karstens and DeSalvo will be brought back when they end and maybe, just maybe Kei Igawa. The Yankees need to see if Igawa can pitch in the bigs at all and a September blowout would be a good place to start.

26 games left, it should be a fun ride to the finish.

September 01, 2007

No-Hitter!

Clay Buchholz pitched a no-hitter tonight as I'm sure most of you already know.

Great spectator event indeed, but here was my thought process throughout:

1.)  No way a rookie pitches a no-no in his 2nd MLB start.

2.)  Wow, what a good job Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy (and NESN) did of not saying "no-hitter."  Obviously they had to acknowledge the significance of what was happening, but they skated around saying the phrase, something FOX sports would not do.

3.)  Pitching coach John Farrell shook Buchholz's hand after the 8th, I though that was a bad move as you generally aren't supposed to talk to or address a pitching in the midst of a late-game no-hitter.  At first I thought it might mean they were taking him out, but in the end it was no bid deal.

4.)  Home plate umpire Joe West helped out Buchholz early in the game (i.e. the first pitch) but worked a bit against him in the latter innings.  There were 2 pitches, one a change the other the hook, which West called balls.  In my mind, they were both clearly strikes.

5.)  What great pitchers pitched a no-hitter so soon in their career?  Is this a good career event?  Or does it matter?  I worry that such an event will be the peak rather than a great accomplishment along the way to greatness.

Or maybe I should relax and enjoy this moment.  I have it saved on TIVO and I've already watched the last at bat about 10 times.  Congratulations Clay Buchholz.  Now, get ready for the full body-cast Red Sox management will want to place you in tomorrow.  115 pitches exceded his season high by 21.  He averaged 78 pitches per start in the minors, an indication that management wants to protect this kid.  Maybe he'll start again this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they say "great season kid, now take 5 months off."

Update:  Aparently ESPN's Rob Neyer wondered the same thing about Buchholz and his place in history.  Neyer seems ok with the notion that this won't have any impact on his future (negatively or positively).