Quite The Weekend
Six games into the critical stretch of the season and the Yankees are 5-1. They are now 15 games above .500 and tied for the wild card. Oh yes, they are only four games in back of the Red Sox, but it is still silly to talk about that because the math while better is still ugly. (Red Sox play at current clip of .600 Yankees have to go 31-14 to tie. My advice, focus on the wild card).
As positive as things look right now, in some ways a stricter test is coming up Monday. Cleveland ran out two bad pitchers against the New York lineup, Baltimore won't do that. Jermey Guthrie and Erik Bedard have ERA's of 3.22 and 3.11. Daniel Cabrera, while sporting a 5.14 ERA for the year, still has managed 122 K's and has electric, if erratic stuff.
This will be very interesting to watch and while many would look at the schedule and expect an easy series, I wouldn't do that. Things are good right now and it will be interesting to see if the incredible offense continues against two very good pitchers.
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The news that Kei Igawa has been claimed by San Diego and could be traded to them has prompted a lot of cheers in the Bronx. After all, with all the young pitching, why do we need Igawa?
Count me in among the crowd that doesn't want to see Igawa pitching in a Yankees' uniform anytime soon, but you simply can't give him away. The Yankees spent $46 million on him and $26 of that is a sunk cost. No team is going to eat that big a chunk of money without something to show for it. Whatever team gets Igawa will have the next 4+ years to try and fix him and only have to pay $4-million in the process. As much as I want him gone, I would rather let him try and get things back together in AAA instead of giving him away for a song.
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One thing that the Yankees have to do is resolve the Farnsworth situation. Yesterday, Joe Torre had the following options for the 8th inning: Vizcaino, Rivera, Farnsworth and Villone. Chamberlain was out because he had pitched two innings Friday. (The Joba rules state that he gets the same number of days off as innings pitched, so two innings of use=two days off) Brower was with his wife who just gave birth. Karstens is being saved to start tomorrow, which means four guys were left and Joe trusts two of them. Protecting Chamberlain is vital, but it would be easier to do if the Yankees had someone else to pitch the seventh or eighth. Obviously, Kyle is never going to be that guy again in Joe's eyes, so get someone who could possibly fill that role.
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Last but no least, as good as the offense has been, Andy Phillips is not pulling his weight in the lineup, if they won't let Giambi or Damon play first, how about unchaining Shelley Duncan from the bench? The guy has five home runs in 35 AB's, shouldn't we see some more of him?
Comments
I deal with a bunch of NY fans and they were downright giddy this morning. Four games out and playing great.
The long season has worked the magic that is baseball. Taken a big lead and now there is a race.
I disagree with your comments about the Yanks should only look towards the wildcard. That is a piker position if ever I heard one. Four games is a week. Especially the way the sox have been mis-playing lately.
oh yeah, on your remarks about middle relief for the 7th inning? Would you be interested in a particular former closer that has been horrible since arriving in his latest destination?
Win or lose, I have always enjoyed the race that took 4 months to develop.
Game on!
Posted by: blmeanie | August 13, 2007 06:27 PM |
Thanks for the offer BL, but I am going to have to pass right now. Then again, I simply don't believe that you will continue to get this from Gagne- unless he is hurt and nobody knows it.
As for the division, I still don't see it. I guess it comes down to what you think the Red Sox real ability is. I think they are probably right about where they should be as a team (.600 ball) That puts Boston at 27-18 over the final 45. Unless the Yankees win the season series (they are losing it 5-7 right now) they are going to have to beat Boston by a game for the division. Is 32-13 realistic against a schedule of opponents with a .509 winning percentage? I don't think so, but I could be wrong.
My favorite stat for this, Baseball Prospectus' Pecota-Adjusted postseason odds puts the Yankees at 12.75% to win the division which is why I don't pay attention to it now.
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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August 13, 2007 07:29 PM
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I agree that the wild card is more attainable than the division but I think saying the Sox play .600 ball is a bit of a leap. They have hardly been a .600 club since the All Star break. They do scare me in a series though because of the starting pitching and pen. Spot on about Igawa as well.
I would have thought that Seattle would have faded by now but they keep winning. With Clev/Det playing eachother 6 times in the next nine days, I think we'll be quite comfortably in front of one of them by a wide margin but Seattle and their fairly easy schedule is starting to worry me and it may start worrying the Red Sox as well.
Once the rosters get expanded the Farnsworth situation will resolve itself. He's got 3 weeks to get himself on the playoff roster and then the only sure things for the bullpen will be Mo, Viz, Joba and Moose. The rest of the pen will be given to the guys pitching the best. Villone, Britton, Kartsens, Farnsworth, Bruney or whoever else comes up on Sept 1st.
Agree on Phillips, Betemit with some Duncan sprinkled in. I think Giambi is ready to take on the DH role full time again. My best line-up? Jeter, Abreu, A-rod, Giambi (DH), Matsui, Posada, Cano, Betemit (1B), Melky. Damon, Duncan on the bench. I love Melky but if Jeter, Abreu, A-rod and Giambi are healthy, he can't hit that high in the order.
Posted by: tim | August 14, 2007 02:27 AM |
Peter - I love numbers. I majored in Math in school. I rely on statistics and math all day everyday in my job.
Numbers can indeed lie though.
I am surprised by the 12.75% for the Yanks to win the division.
Can that even be up to date?
The way I see it, if it is up-to-date, then Toronto, based on being 11.5 back have about a 3.25% chance of winning the division.
NY - 12.75%
Toronto - 3.25%
subtotal - 16% chance
Baltimore - no chance
Tampa Bay - goodnight
Therefore the Sox would have an 84% chance of winning the division.
No way. 4 games is nothing (to my earlier point).
If I were handicapping it, here is how I would shake it out:
Boston 50%
NYY 40%
Toronto 10%
Posted by: blmeanie | August 14, 2007 12:00 PM |
BL- numbers can lie and they often do, but four games is still a lot to make up. Think about it this way, for the next two days the Yankees play Baltimore and Boston plays Tampa. Two bad teams, but Tampa is worse. This weekend it is Boston-Angels and New York-Detroit (slightly tougher for Boston) But then Boston gets seven games against Tampa and Chicago while New York plays the Angels and Tigers.
I think most computers and humans would agree that Boston has a much better chance to gain ground in the division than lose it over the next 13 games. And, once you get past that, there are only 30 games left, which really isn't enough time for the Yankees if they are four or more back.
As of this morning, the chances to win the AL East were: Boston 87.14102, Yankees 12.81823, Toronto .03990, Baltimore .00085 and Tampa 0
Momentum may change our perception, but the four-game lead and the schedule still gives Boston a huge advantage.
(Oh and Yankees' fans, those same numbers give the Yankees the wild card 64.37395% of the time)
Posted by: Peter![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://yankeesredsox.com/nav-commenters.gif)
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August 14, 2007 12:59 PM
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I liked the odds of the Celtics getting Oden or Durant in the draft too...
Posted by: blmeanie | August 14, 2007 11:53 PM |