No Blood
Would a sweep have been nice? Absolutely, it would have, but let's not get too upset by the drubbing the Yankees took last night. Yes, losing that badly is never fun and when Kyle Farnsworth is the night's most effective pitcher, you have really stunk it up, but the fact remains the Yankees won the series. That's really all you can ask for.
As an added bonus, Cleveland and Detroit lost. Yes, Seattle won, but the Mariners are playing over the head (expected winning percentage right now is 56-55) and I don't see them in the mix at the end of the year. No, I think this race boils down to the Yankees, Tigers and Cleveland fighting it out for two playoff spots. (Note, despite any worries in Boston, I just don't see the Red Sox losing seven more games than the Yankees over the final 48. Not to say it can't happen, but I wouldn't put any money on it)
If you want to handicap the race, I think you have to give a slight edge to Detroit. Of the three squads, they have the most home games, (28 out of 49) and play the easiest schedule (opponenets have a .503 winning percentage). The Indians will be on the road a lot (27 of their remaining 48 games) and also have opponents with a .503 winning percentage. As for the Yankees, they have 25 of their last 48 on the road and face a .511 winning percentage. The big thing in the Yankees' favor is that Detroit and Cleveland faceoff eight more times. Ideally, you want one of the teams to take six of those eight.
But, as Tim pointed out in the comments section, this is the key stretch for New York. From now until the end of August the Yankees play @Cleveland three times, Baltimore three, Detroit four, @Anaheim three, @Detroit four and then host Boston for three. 20 games over 21 days that will most likely determine the fate of the season. If the Yankees can get through this stretch at .500 or above, they should be in great position to feast on a September schedule that is much easier.
Phil Hughes starts it off tomorrow night in Cleveland.
Comments
It's definetly not out of the question for the yankees to win 12-13 of those games. Detroit has been awful lately and Cleveland hasn't been much better.
I think the Baltimore series needs to be a sweep for the Yanks as well. They can't be held up by sub .500 teams.
Posted by: Tripp | August 9, 2007 12:33 PM |
I'd categorized it this way. Over the next 19 games, less than 10 wins and they are in real trouble. 10 or 11, they'll still be in a fight. 12 or 13 looking comfortable. 14 or more wins and we've got a shot at the division. I think 11 is realistic and is what I'm hoping for.
Posted by: tim | August 9, 2007 11:11 PM |
I believe it was Bud Grant who said "It's not who you play but when you play them." Wouldn't get too hung up on the record of the other team. They could play a good team that's slumping or a bad team that's hot.
What they've got to do is to play better on the road. If they could play .500 on the road and then win a bunch of games at home, they should be just fine.
Posted by: corey | August 10, 2007 05:06 PM |
The kids win it - then old man Mo comes in for the 9th. What an absolutely beautiful performance.
And Iggy may soon be a Padre - wonder what Cash will get in return. My guess is bullpen help - or a catching prospect.
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August 10, 2007 11:59 PM
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