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Moose Replacement?

The papers are full of speculation that Mike Mussina will be replaced in the starting rotation after Monday if he gets shelled again. Now, I am not going to attempt to defend Mussina's pitching recently, he has stunk, and if you look at some splits things get a little more frightening. Consider the top and bottom halves of the league in terms of runs scored. Against the teams in the top half, Mussina has a 6.39 ERA against the bottom half it is 4.42.

The fact that he pitches worse against the best teams is not a shock, but the fact that he is only league-average against the lower half is a cause for concern. It is obvious to anyone that watches him, that Mussina has lost his fastball, but the stats suggest that he isn't really fooling anyone. So, the Yankees are right to think about replacing him in the rotation, the problem is, who do you put in his place?

Right off the top, cross Joba off your list. His inning cap of 130 makes it impossible (more on that later) and since putting him back in the rotation would bump the risk of an injury, the Yankees would never do it.

And that's the big problem, there really isn't a candidate in the system you can get excited about. Matt DeSalvo didn't exactly dazzle in his time in the Bronx, so would you want him back? Likewise with Kei Igawa and Jeff Karstens. Tyler Clippard and Chase Wright are currently in AA ball. Ian Kennedy also has an innings cap and while I don't know exactly what the figure is, he has thrown 140 innings already this year.

So, that leaves you with probably one candidate, Steven White. White has pitched reasonably well at AAA (3.50 ERA in 79 innings) and he is following his pattern of reaching a level, struggling and then doing well there the following year. He only has 46K's which is a cause for concern, but those numbers have improved lately. But, despite that, do you really want to insert him into a pennant race over Mike Mussina? After Monday they may not have a choice, but for now it is a hard question to answer.

********

Last night's game was typical Pettitte, he has always been the "stopper" for this staff. It is one of the reasons everyone was glad to see him back and an ingredient this staff has lacked since he left. I would bet almost anything right now that Joe Torre starts him in Game Two of the playoffs if they make it.

Despite the win, I have to admit I was upset with seeing Joba in the eighth. Yes, I enjoyed the theatre of the Guerrerro-Chamberlain at bat (if you missed that you missed a great showdown and the sight of Guerrero almost crushing an 100-mph fastball, but fouling it back. As Ted Williams used to say, I bet he smelled the wood burning on that one) and I understand there are no "refunds" on the Joba plan. If he doesn't pitch Wednesday, it doesn't mean he can pitch back-to-back games Friday and Saturday. But, the Yankees have said they want him to only pitch 130 innings this year. Last night's game brings him to 96. That means he has 34 left over the final 35 games which following the Joba Rules should work, but why are they using him and Mo in that game? I can see one, but not both and isn't that the perfect situation for a Farnsworth appearance?

Anyway, that is about all I can grumble about and that is a good thing. Now the Yankees need to get back on track against a slumping Tigers team without Gary Sheffield.

Comments

Moose's slot comes up Monday and than Sept 1st against TB. After that, with off days, the Yanks won't need a 5th starter until Sept 16th and only twice more after that.

I say give Moose the Det & TB starts. If he stinks it up in either game (and the Yanks are not in a playoff spot) go to a 4 man rotation and Moose in long relief until Sept 16th. Not ideal but better than missing the playoffs.

Agree completely on Farnsworth but maybe Joe didn't want Joba and Mo not throwing for 5 days?

Pettitte, hero.

Help me out, I don't have the knowledge into the Yankee system you guys do.

If Joba is one of the saviors for the future (and he appears to be quite talented), why kid glove him at all?

What are the injuries he's had and if there is tremendous concerns about them, why not shut him down for the year...or...will the concerns continue next season?

If there will be no concerns next year, they should shut him down now...playing with fire.

If he will continue to have concerns next season (cap on pitches and innings) then shut him down now.

I don't get it. Is it worth it if he is a savior?

Moose needs to be forced into retirement this off-season. Yanks should work something out with him and try not to make it ugly.
However, I don't know if I want to see 3 rookies anchoring the rotation next year behind Wang and Pettitte.

I'd rather have Moose in there than Hughes. Of course, that tends to show some of the serious problems this team has in the back of the rotation.

In the long run, I'd sure like to see Mussina re-tool himself as a knuckleballer and complete junk ball pitcher. He has to come to terms with the loss of his fastball.

In the short run, the Yankees are going to get some ugly starts from the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation and will have to score a lot of runs.

If they make the playoffs, they'll actually have a pretty good team for a short series: Pettite-Wang-Clemens is a good 1-2-3 and their bullpen is looking good. But unlike past years, making the playoffs is iffy. I tend to think they'll pull it off. The team has a lot of depth and character.

Ron Villone is now on the disabled list and Brian Bruney has replaced him in the bullpen.

I still don't understand why the Yankees continue to pass over Chris Britton at every opportunity. I would feel more comfortable with him than Bruney, who certainly hasn't set the world on fire at Scranton.

Moose is all moosed up, clearly. Even if he's convinced there's no one to replace him, he's not putting up enough zeroes to be a part of the rotation right now.

Clemens isn't exactly impresing me - or opposing batters.

Farnsworth is still looking better.

6 1/2 back in the East and 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card. Going to be close, very close.

Great comments all, let me tackle each one.

BL- Job had some arm problems in college which is probably why he fell out of the top of the draft to the 41st spot. The Yankees are very,VERY conservative with their young pitchers and have developed a formula to determine how many innings each should throw in a given year. Hughes was set at 180 for this season which didn't turn out to be a problem. Joba was 130 which could be and you bring up a good point. Next year I would be hard to see them letting him go past 160 or so.

Tripp- This is why i would have rather let Mussina pitch this season under his old contract ($17 million for 2007 and then you are done with him) than his new one ($11 million for both '07 and '08) I think the Yankees will have a very tough choice to make going into next year in regards to what they can do with him.

Corey- I have more faith in Hughes than Moose, but I agree, someone needs to step up at the back of that rotation and soon.

Tyler- At this point I wonder if Britton punched out Joe Torre and we never heard about it. It simply doesn't make sense anymore.

Mitchell- Close is right and who would you pick to replace Moose? (Assuming he gets bombed on Monday)

Who replaces Moose? Assuming what I read is close to accurate - Kennedy.

Give Moose a one or two start rest and then see how it looks.

Rasner and Karstens have digressed rather than progressed, Henn seems shakey.

We've brought up some great "kids" with great success. If Torre/Cash stop taking risks now, we're probably going to wind up not making the postseason by the heartbeaking margins of two to three games. Neither the Sux nor the Mariners are going to hand the berth to us.

The thing is, what is Kennedy's innings-cap for the season? I haven't been able to find a number, but I bet he is very close.

If Kennedy's only got 12 or 14 innings left in his "bank", that's still two starts, assuming (big assumption) that he can last that long in the bigs. Then send him home for the season.

Let's see how rocky the Moose looks tomorrow night (sorry, couldn't help myself on that one, Peter) and then see what's up. Who knows, maybe Moose will dazzle everyone?

On another note? Hughes isn't exactly lights out right now either.

Still don't think a 5th starter is THAT big a concern this year given they can pitch around it quite a bit with the off days they have.

The Yanks can't count on Moose for the 5th spot next week let alone next year. Pettite, Wang, Hughes are your only sure things. I think they could start Joba in long relief and as a 5th starter for the first few weeks where a 5th starter isn't needed as much. That could help keep his innings down.

I think their is a very good chance that the Yanks will make a serious run at Santana. I don't think they would deal Hughes or Joba but let's face facts.

1. Damon has no where to play.
2. They have a surplus of young arms in the minors.
3. They can build for the future all they want but the majority of their position players are in the 'win now' camp.

Would a Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betimit + cash type deal get it done? Santana is set to earn 13M next year, the Yanks could tear that up and give him a 5yr 105mm deal. Santana, Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Joba with this line-up: Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-rod, Giambi, Matsui, Posada, Cano is plenty.

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