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Daisuke Matsuzaka works incredibly slowly.  He pitched into the 7th and took 2 3/4 hours, and that was a fast night for him.  It has been a painful thing to watch all season especially when compared to Tim Wakefield.

Matsuzaka hit ARod and almost hit Robinson Cano (who gave him his best menacing glare).  Prediction:  Roger Clemens does something about it Wednesday night.  Prediction:  Josh Beckett answers the call.

Eric Hinske isn't, never has been and never will be a match for Jaba Chamberlain.

Given the Yankee offense, if they had any consistent pitching, this wouldn't be a contest.

If anyone in the Yankees organization cares, it might be a good idea to not use Chamberlain as much as Scott Proctor was used.  Proctor was probably never destined to be an elite reliever, but he might have made a few million as a pitcher.  Now, I'm not sure he'll be in baseball in 3 years.  I know, he made a major league minimum at worst, but still.  Maybe Joe Torre will cut him a few checks in a few years.

JD Drew might as well come up with one of his 20 game injuries as he isn't helping this Red Sox team at all.  He has been terrible.  A .756 OPS at $14m a year.  He best figure this problem out soon or he will not be a happy man for the next few years (despite his wealth...after all, money doesn't buy one happiness).

Mike Lowell will probably wind up with 115-120 RBI this year.  Not bad for a throw-in.  My guess is he is gone next year as Boston won't want to offer more than 2 years and he'll probably get a 3-4 year deal at $11-$12m per.

Tuesday was the toughest match-up in the series for Boston as Andy Pettitte is a good pitcher having a good year.

With both Manny Ramirez and Bobby Kielty going down with injuries, get used to Eric Hinske for a day or two.  Yikes.

Despite the lead the Red Sox have over the Yankees, there is still a buzz in the air when these 2 teams go head-to-head.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox enjoy a 7.5 game lead heading into Tuesday's 3-game set in the Bronx.  Given the lead, this series isn't quite what most would have hoped.  But from this Red Sox fan, it is nice to have a little breathing room at this time of year, even if it lessens the drama factor of playing the Yankees in New York.

With the September roster expansion approaching (and Pawtucket playing sub-.500 ball), we are likely to see a few call-ups:

guarantees:

Ellsbury, Lester (at Portland), Clayton (Royce), Buchholz, Breslow, Corey, Hansack, maybe George Kottaras, newly acquired Chris Carter, Brandon Moss.  That's 10 guys and probably too many.  In fact, I think the Red Sox usually only promote 4-5 tops.  So to revise my list, I'll go with Ellsbury, Lester, Clayton, Buchholz and Carter.

You read it here first.

Assuming Boston doesn't do anything stupid, like overusing players, etc, they are setting themselves up nicely for a potential playoff run.  I realize the playoffs aren't a guarantee, but they are in good shape.  In fact, www.coolstandings.com has the Red Sox as follows this morning:

Red Sox:  % chance to win division - 97.7%, to win the WC - 2.2%, to miss playoffs - 0.2%  So based on this site which simulates the remaining schedule 1 million times to come up with their results, the Red Sox are in good shape.  Again, stanger things have happened...

Take the Red Sox Playoff Poll!

Terry Francona needs to rest players as much as possible and use his bullpen arms sparingly while at the same time making sure the team doesn't lose any intensity.  Glad I don't have his job.

Last note, nice run production from the team this weekend.  If Ortiz, Manny, Lowell and Drew can hit the ball like they did this weekend (well Manny and Drew weren't great), the Red Sox have a chance to go a long way this year.  But "If's" don't win you anything.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 08:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

It's tough to remember as you go through the season, but I bet 16 games ago, you would be happy to have the Yankees where they are now. 9-7 though the tough 20-game stretch. This allows them to finish the stretch 2-2 and still come out over .500.

(Now, to be honest, 2-2 would leave me wanting more. I want a win tomorrow and a win in the Red Sox series, nothing less than that.)

The other thing to remember is that Seattle is going to start facing some very tough competition. Three@ LA, One@Cleveland, 3@Toronto and then the big one, 3@ the Stadium. And, when they finish that stretch they still have 11 games left with Cleveland, LA and Detroit.

So, despite the tough losses, bad play and general malaise I feel tonight, things are ok. Tomorrow morning we will wake up and the Yankees will either be 2 or 3 games out of the wild card. Not wonderful, but considering the whole picture, not terrible.

********

One last note, I am off on a family trip for the next week, but hopefully I will be able to check in with some updates along the way.

Don't forget the "second" trading deadline is Friday, if Moose gets bombed, I would bet a veteran starter shows up courtesy of Brian Cashman.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

The papers are full of speculation that Mike Mussina will be replaced in the starting rotation after Monday if he gets shelled again. Now, I am not going to attempt to defend Mussina's pitching recently, he has stunk, and if you look at some splits things get a little more frightening. Consider the top and bottom halves of the league in terms of runs scored. Against the teams in the top half, Mussina has a 6.39 ERA against the bottom half it is 4.42.

The fact that he pitches worse against the best teams is not a shock, but the fact that he is only league-average against the lower half is a cause for concern. It is obvious to anyone that watches him, that Mussina has lost his fastball, but the stats suggest that he isn't really fooling anyone. So, the Yankees are right to think about replacing him in the rotation, the problem is, who do you put in his place?

Right off the top, cross Joba off your list. His inning cap of 130 makes it impossible (more on that later) and since putting him back in the rotation would bump the risk of an injury, the Yankees would never do it.

And that's the big problem, there really isn't a candidate in the system you can get excited about. Matt DeSalvo didn't exactly dazzle in his time in the Bronx, so would you want him back? Likewise with Kei Igawa and Jeff Karstens. Tyler Clippard and Chase Wright are currently in AA ball. Ian Kennedy also has an innings cap and while I don't know exactly what the figure is, he has thrown 140 innings already this year.

So, that leaves you with probably one candidate, Steven White. White has pitched reasonably well at AAA (3.50 ERA in 79 innings) and he is following his pattern of reaching a level, struggling and then doing well there the following year. He only has 46K's which is a cause for concern, but those numbers have improved lately. But, despite that, do you really want to insert him into a pennant race over Mike Mussina? After Monday they may not have a choice, but for now it is a hard question to answer.

********

Last night's game was typical Pettitte, he has always been the "stopper" for this staff. It is one of the reasons everyone was glad to see him back and an ingredient this staff has lacked since he left. I would bet almost anything right now that Joe Torre starts him in Game Two of the playoffs if they make it.

Despite the win, I have to admit I was upset with seeing Joba in the eighth. Yes, I enjoyed the theatre of the Guerrerro-Chamberlain at bat (if you missed that you missed a great showdown and the sight of Guerrero almost crushing an 100-mph fastball, but fouling it back. As Ted Williams used to say, I bet he smelled the wood burning on that one) and I understand there are no "refunds" on the Joba plan. If he doesn't pitch Wednesday, it doesn't mean he can pitch back-to-back games Friday and Saturday. But, the Yankees have said they want him to only pitch 130 innings this year. Last night's game brings him to 96. That means he has 34 left over the final 35 games which following the Joba Rules should work, but why are they using him and Mo in that game? I can see one, but not both and isn't that the perfect situation for a Farnsworth appearance?

Anyway, that is about all I can grumble about and that is a good thing. Now the Yankees need to get back on track against a slumping Tigers team without Gary Sheffield.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 03:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

As I write this, the Yankees are losing 18-5 in the seventh. Mike Mussina stunk, Ron Villone was worse, Edwar Ramirez made a bad pitch and Sean Henn looked bad as well. The bullpen is shot and still needs to get six outs.

To make matters worse, Scranton had a doubleheader tonight in which Chris Britton threw three innings so he can't come help tomorrow. The Yankees can't recall Karstens or Brower unless their is an injury and Bruney has not pitched well in AAA so far. So, I am going to guess that TJ Beam gets promoted for tomorrow's game. I think someone is going to be brought up and Beam and Jose Veras are the only other relievers on the 40-man roster right now. In fact they may be the only available guys. (Igawa and DeSalvo pitched tonight, Clippard on the 19th, Chase Wright on the 20th, the problem with recalling Karstens or Brower I mentioned above and somehow I don't think Brackman is going to hit the majors tomorrow) That leaves Bruney, Veras and Beam, take your pick, but one of those guys will be helping the bullpen tomorrow.

The only "good" news is Andy Pettitte is starting. Pettitte usually picks up his team after a loss and they will really need it tomorrow (actually tonight in New York)

Ugh

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 12:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)

You have to love the way the Yankees responded to losing three-straight and dropping the first game of the Tigers series. They rediscovered their bats and their starting pitching, while not spectacular, got the job done. Even better, the bullpen and the bench are becoming big strengths.

Don't underestimate the pitching performances this weekend. Yes, Clemens and Wang struggled, but Detroit is a great offensive team. Six innings and three runs or less is something you will take every time when facing that offense. And, the bullpen was simply awesome. Mo looked great, same with (cough...cough) Farnsworth and Joba and Edwar are simply electric.

Add it all up and the first half of the 20-game crunch shows the Yankees have gone 7-3. Since 11 wins was the initial goal, things look good, but the degree fo dificulty is ramping up a lot. Three in Anaheim and then four in Detroit before three against Boston. So, a lot of potholes remain in the road, but this team looks ready for them.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 08:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

This is not good.  Eric Gagne has been just terrible.  His control is off and his velocity is all over the map.  I'm not sure this deal is working out.  Last night, after a spirited rally to take a 5-4 lead, Gagne came in to close the game and coughed it up.

Now, turning on excuse mode, Gagne's role has been muddy of late.  He was a closer upon getting traded, he came to Boston and has been asked to be a set-up guy and last night he was asked to close again.  Perhaps Gagne is having trouble with his changing job description.

Excuse mode off.

This is a time where a veteran like Mike Timlin needs to sit down with Gagne and tell him to A.)  relax and B.)  tell him he doesn't need to prove anything to anyone.  Only a veteran offer of support like that will help in my opinion.  But just as important is Gagne's willingness to listen.  Gagne is at a fork in the road.  Take a left and he can look back at his Boston experience as one of his worst, most painful jobs ever.  Take a right and he can make the best of his situation and look back at it as a great time.  Granted, his ability to throw strikes and get people out is the main component of that left/right fork in the road choice, but getting his head screwed on straight is the most important thing.  If he is healthy mentally, he can take a right.

Overshadowed by the Gagne debacle was the debut of Clay Buchholz.  He pitched 6 solid innings and proved why people are excited.  I think is is great that he goes back to Pawtucket with a bit more knowledge about what it takes at the major league level and works on his game.

Wily Mo Pena was traded to the Nationals along with cash considerations for a PTBNL.  We learn the name of that player after the playoffs.

Jacoby Ellsbury played in game 2 last night (once Buchholz was sent back down) and it seems Bobby Kielty will be activated for today's game forcing a return to AAA by Ellsbury.

Lastly, Doug Mirabelli was put on the DL with a calf strain and Kevin Cash, Pawtucket's catcher, was summoned.  The transaction wire was busy yesterday.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

It's official, Clay Buchholz is going to start game one of Friday's day/night doubleheader.  As I'm sure you've heard by now, Buchholz is considered one of baseball's top pitching prospects and certainly Boston's top prospect.

Buchholz is 8-3 in the minors this year with 164 K's (leading all of the minors) in 117 innings.

AA - Portland:  7-2, 86.2 IP, 55 H, 17 ER, 22 BB, 116 K, 1.17 ERA

AAA - Pawtucket:  1-1, 30.1 IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 8 BB, 48 K, 3.26 ERA

To be fair, Buchholz dominated at AA and has done just fine at AAA, but he will be facing a very good Anaheim Angels team and specifically, will be going against John Lackey.  This is likely to be a one time deal as he will probably be option right back to Pawtucket until further notice.  But it certainly will be fun to watch his debut.

Other news of interest is the fate of Wily Mo Pena.  In order to make room for Buchholz, something has to give.  Because Javier Lopez (he has options) is already in the minors, there are really no clear decisions here.  If the Red Sox have a deal in place for Wily Mo, then he is the one to go when Buchholz gets called up.  Upon Buchholz's return to AAA, we will either see Bobby Kielty or Jacoby Ellsbury (check out his hitting log on his hyperlink, 17 hits in his last 10 games).

So we may be saying goodbye to Wily Mo, who I am convinced will hit 40 HRs with any team willing to give him a starting job, and hello to either a veteran in Kielty or to a top prospect in Ellsbury.

Friday will be a great baseball day for Red Sox fans.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The Yankees just gave a guy with less than 100 innings of college ball and an arm in need of surgery $4.5 million and a major league contract. Have they gone insane?

It is certainly easy to say they have, after all, that is a lot of money, but on second glance, this is all part of the plan that Brian Cashman has been developing with good results so far. Basically, the Yankees are going to use their considerable financial advantages to get high-ceiling players in the draft. Player who some of the other teams will avoid because of the costs involved with signing them. So, the Yankees drafted Brackman, a 6'10" flamethrower that scouts loved because they could afford him. In fact, they spent somewhere around 10$ million when all is said and done on their first fifteen picks in the draft.

That's a lot of money, but it is still just one season of Carl Pavano (Actually, when you factor luxury tax in, it is less than a season of Carl) and that is how we have to look at these things now. Developing young pitchers has become the mantra of the organization and by aiming for the high-risk/high reward type of player you sometimes hit the lottery. (Remember, last season Joba Chamberlain scared away a lot of teams because of cost and arm problems.)

I am not sure what will happen with Brackman. If he indeed has surgery, which seems likely, we won't see him in the Bronx until 2010 at the earliest in my mind. But, besides Brackman there are a lot of interesting names out there, a couple of catchers, Ryan Pope who has thrown 19 innings at Staten Island already and Damon Sublett who has five home runs there in 175 AB's. What seems fair to say is that some of the 2007 draft picks will work out and because the Yankees went for talent regardless of cost, some of those picks should work out quite well.

I think it will take another year or two, but a Yankees' minor league system teeming with prospects seems to be attainable. If the team is indeed ready to look inside first before signing the big free agent, the rest of baseball better watch out.

*******
Tonight's lineup
Damon- LF
Jeter- SS
Abreu-RF
A-Rod-3B
Matsui-DH
Posada-C
Giambi-1B
Cano-2B
Cabrera-CF

I love Torre putting Giambi at first against the very tought Verlander and I imagine it is also a way of playing him before facing the lefty tomorrow night.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

That game certainly took you from the lows to the highs to the lows. The utter futility of the Yankees' offense for eight innings, punctuated by a great home run and then Mo looking lost. As Mitchell said in a comment on a previous post "ugh".

But, there were some very positive signs. Duncan has to be considered in the first base mix anytime a lefty is pitching and Ramirez showed that wicked changeup very well in 2+ innings. I know it is hard to lose a series to Baltimore, but since the All-Star break they are 18-13, definitely a team on the rise.

Now comes a huge test, four against the Tigers. Detroit has a great offense and we will learn a lot about the Yankees' pitching staff the next four days.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Sean Henn and Edwar Ramirez have been recalled from Columbus with Karstens sent down and Brower DFA'ed.

After last night's debacle, it was clear that Karstens wasn't ready to pitch in the bigs again and Brower was still lousy. Getting rid of them is a plus. Henn probably becomes the longman in the pen right now and that leaves the question of what role does Ramriez fill?

Based on his 40 innings of work in Scranton where he struck out 69 with a 0.90 ERA, he should be in the mix for the late innings. But, in his first stint with the Yankees he pitched twice in three days and then was left to rot for two weeks. When he finally got into a game, he was destroyed by Tampa. Why Joe didn't use him more is hard to understand, but that is going to have to change now.

With the "Joba Rules" stating that Chamberlain never pitches on consecutive days (Joe said yesterday that is "set in stone") there are a lot of bullpen innings that need to be filled. On days when the Yankees need someone to pitch in the seventh and Chamberlain isn't available, it will have to be Ramirez unless the team suddenly decides to trust Farnsworth (not recommending that) Vizcaino can pitch the 8th and Rivera the 9th in that scenario.

The real key to this bullpen remains the same, getting rid of Farnsworth. The New York Post reported that he went got through waivers (no surprise there) so he can be traded at any point. Yes, the Yankees might have to eat some money, but unlike the Igawa situation (BTW- the Yankees pulled him back yesterday) Farnsworth is hurting the team while Igawa is stashed in the minors. Cashman needs to hold his nose, admit his mistake and make the best deal he can. Then, get Chris Britton or Russ Ohlendorf up to the Bronx to fill his spot. Then you have Henn and Villone as your long guys, Vizcanio and Joba for the 8th and Ramirez and Britton or Ohlendorf for the 7th and 8th as needed. The Yankees need more flexibility in the bullpen and getting rid of Farnsworth would provide them with that.

Of course, Ramirez has to prove he can pitch here as well. That is still an unknown, but we will never find out unless Joe starts using him.

Back after the game.

UPDATE: Brower has been optioned back to Scranton because he agreed to an option when he signed with the Yankees. I guess he is insurance in Scranton, but I hope Britton is the next guy called up if they need someone.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox are now, get this, 2-41 when trailing entering the 8th inning.  Talk about clutch.  Clutch baby!

With the Red Sox down 1-0 entering the 9th, Mike Lowell tied the game with a solo shot and Coco Crisp delivered Jason Varitek from 2nd a few batters later to pull out the come from behind win.  Their 2nd 8th inning or later come back this year.  Yippee.

This was a good win and hopefully one that will jog the collective memory of this team.  Specifically that they used to be very good (i.e. in April and May).

Jonathan Lester was outstanding pitching 7 innings of 1 run ball.  It's just one start, but it had to give him a confidence boost.

While this was a good win, the Red Sox did only score 2 runs.  J.D. Drew has been a non-factor of late...er...all season and with Manny and Ortiz not producing like years past, the Red Sox are very lucky the pitching has been so good.  If the Red Sox had last year's pitching staff, this would probably be a disaster season.  I'm now convinced the Red Sox should have given up Wily Mo Pena and either Manny Delcarmen or Justin Masterson to get Jermaine Dye.  Since the trading deadline, Dye has gone: .351/.442/.838 (1.280 OPS) with 5 HR's, 11 runs and 10 RBI.  Imagine if the Red Sox had plugged Dye into J.D. Drew's spot.  Drew since the deadline:  .394/.474/.545 (1.019 OPS).  Not bad you say?  Check out his production, 5 runs, 0 HRs and 4 RBI.

There's no point in complaining as the waiver trade deadline isn't likely to help the Red Sox much and once Pena is dealt and Bobby Kielty promoted, this team won't be much different.  Let's hope the offense, specifically Drew, Ortiz and Manny, only our 3-4-5 hitters, figure out their respective issues.

More Tampa Bay tomorrow and then an off-day Thursday.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Phil Rizzuto died today at 89. While I was much too young to ever have seen him play, Scooter was the voice of the Yankees when I was growing up. Whether it was talking about cannolis, or complaining about traffic on the GW, Rizzuto always was entertaining. From Seinfeld to Meat Loaf, his famous "Holy Cow" became know to millions outside of New York. I only hope they got a chance to hear the real thing, it was a treat.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 12:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Six games into the critical stretch of the season and the Yankees are 5-1. They are now 15 games above .500 and tied for the wild card. Oh yes, they are only four games in back of the Red Sox, but it is still silly to talk about that because the math while better is still ugly. (Red Sox play at current clip of .600 Yankees have to go 31-14 to tie. My advice, focus on the wild card).

As positive as things look right now, in some ways a stricter test is coming up Monday. Cleveland ran out two bad pitchers against the New York lineup, Baltimore won't do that. Jermey Guthrie and Erik Bedard have ERA's of 3.22 and 3.11. Daniel Cabrera, while sporting a 5.14 ERA for the year, still has managed 122 K's and has electric, if erratic stuff.

This will be very interesting to watch and while many would look at the schedule and expect an easy series, I wouldn't do that. Things are good right now and it will be interesting to see if the incredible offense continues against two very good pitchers.

*******
The news that Kei Igawa has been claimed by San Diego and could be traded to them has prompted a lot of cheers in the Bronx. After all, with all the young pitching, why do we need Igawa?

Count me in among the crowd that doesn't want to see Igawa pitching in a Yankees' uniform anytime soon, but you simply can't give him away. The Yankees spent $46 million on him and $26 of that is a sunk cost. No team is going to eat that big a chunk of money without something to show for it. Whatever team gets Igawa will have the next 4+ years to try and fix him and only have to pay $4-million in the process. As much as I want him gone, I would rather let him try and get things back together in AAA instead of giving him away for a song.

*******

One thing that the Yankees have to do is resolve the Farnsworth situation. Yesterday, Joe Torre had the following options for the 8th inning: Vizcaino, Rivera, Farnsworth and Villone. Chamberlain was out because he had pitched two innings Friday. (The Joba rules state that he gets the same number of days off as innings pitched, so two innings of use=two days off) Brower was with his wife who just gave birth. Karstens is being saved to start tomorrow, which means four guys were left and Joe trusts two of them. Protecting Chamberlain is vital, but it would be easier to do if the Yankees had someone else to pitch the seventh or eighth. Obviously, Kyle is never going to be that guy again in Joe's eyes, so get someone who could possibly fill that role.

********

Last but no least, as good as the offense has been, Andy Phillips is not pulling his weight in the lineup, if they won't let Giambi or Damon play first, how about unchaining Shelley Duncan from the bench? The guy has five home runs in 35 AB's, shouldn't we see some more of him?

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 02:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

With the Red Sox playing a doubleheader Friday, there is some speculation that Terry Francona will not pitch Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling on the same day because it would force one of them to pitch next week on only 3 days rest.  With that in mind, we might see Clay Buchholz get the call.

I have mixed feelings on this one.  Buchholz has impressed at every level he has played, but with only 30.1 IP at AAA, is it too soon to call him up?  I think so.  My preference would be to have him finish the year starting at AAA and then get a late season call-up to watch the big league club, not pitch for them.  That'll give him some food for thought in the off-season and the Red Sox can give him a legitimate change to make the rotation in 2008.  Buchholz has been good at AAA, but not dominating like he was at A and AA.  He has some growing left to do and I like to the the Red Sox are going to let him do that in Pawtucket.

On another note, Peter pointed out to me that the Red Sox (and all MLB teams) have until Tuesday night to sign their draft picks or else the un-signed picks do back into next year's draft.  They have not reached terms with 5 of their first 10 picks.

Peter Gammons reports that the commissioner's office is putting pressure on teams to sign their picks at their "pre-set" slot price.  Problem is, the CBA has no such language and any slot a player fits into would be purely a number the commissioner's office came up with themselves.  As Gammons points out, the Yankees most likely have deals in place about the slot for most of their top picks.  If the Yankees sign all of their guys, shouldn't Boston?  Come on now, we all want what's best for baseball, but some of us want what's best for Boston.

Sign those picks!

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 01:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

I'm not sure I can put my finger on when it happened but the Red Sox have completely lost their fire.  There just don't seem to be capable of coming back late in games.  The only recent exception was Friday night when the Sox plated 5 in the 8th only to give up 4 in the bottom of the 8th and 1 in the 9th to lose it.

Where is David Ortiz?  What gives?  Where is Manny Ramirez when it counts?  I'm not claiming originality with this idea as I think the Boston Globe recently made reference to the success of Ortiz and Ramirez when it is "late and close" in a game.  Late and close is when the game is in the 7th inning or later and your team is ahead by one, tied or the winning run is on deck, at the plate or on base.

2007:

Ortiz: .269/.367/.385.  How HRs?  0.  None.  Zip.

Manny:  .157/.283/.294 with 2 HRs.

2006:

Ortiz:  .314/.443/.756 with 11 HRs.

Manny:  .262/.459/.525 with 4 HRs.

Career:

Ortiz:  .295/.386/.595 with 40 HRs in 665 plate appearances.

Manny:  .274/.409/.486 with 48 HRs in 935 plate appearances.

Now Manny has never performed up to his career averages in "Late and Close," but Ortiz has.  So what's up with these guys?  Ortiz has been a total disaster when he is needed most.  His 2006 was the essence of perfection when it counted most, but 2007 has been the polar opposite.

We can't put the blame entirely on Ortiz.  Scoring runs early in the game is important too.  The worst part about the Red Sox is watching them get runners on only to seem the stranded at a rate I cannot remember.  It makes me think about 2004 when the Red Sox were scuffling along and in late July, the infamous ARod vs. Varitek brawl took place.  That lit a fire under their collective arse.  One that carried them to the World Series.

That leaves us with the question of what it will take to shake them out of this coma.  A brawl, a trade (not much hope of that), a major benching action?  Your guess is as good as mine.  If the clubhouse chemistry is as good as we've heard, these guys should be able to figure it out.  Terry Francona and Theo Epstein better know what they have in these guys or else they might lounge there way out of the AL East lead.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 07:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox return on investment with Eric Gagne has been negative...like John Henry's hedge funds.  Boston gave up 3 players and paid a hefty bonus to Gagne (and his agent Scott Boras) thinking he'd be a shutdown pitcher.  Here is his Red Sox game log thus far:

Aug 2 - 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Aug 4 - 1.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Aug 8 - 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Aug 10 - .1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Gagne imploded Friday night ruining what had been a very impressive late game rally.  Gagne certainly doesn't throw as hard as he used to and his K's per 9 are quite a bit lower than in his prime (i.e. before arm problems).  With all of this in mind, Gagne probably has struggled most with the idea of not being a closer anymore.  They say closers can struggle with non-save situations and Gagne has been placed in 4 straight non-save situations since the Red Sox acquired him.

Gagne absolutely has to figure out how to excel in his 8th inning role or else this trade will end up being a stinker.  I assume Gagne will figure things out, but it was disappointing to see him blow the lead Friday.  On a more positive note, don't forget the Red Sox will most likely receive 2 first round picks when Gagne signs a long-term deal elsewhere in the off-season as there is not chance he'll stick around being a closer and all.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 11:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Would a sweep have been nice? Absolutely, it would have, but let's not get too upset by the drubbing the Yankees took last night. Yes, losing that badly is never fun and when Kyle Farnsworth is the night's most effective pitcher, you have really stunk it up, but the fact remains the Yankees won the series. That's really all you can ask for.

As an added bonus, Cleveland and Detroit lost. Yes, Seattle won, but the Mariners are playing over the head (expected winning percentage right now is 56-55) and I don't see them in the mix at the end of the year. No, I think this race boils down to the Yankees, Tigers and Cleveland fighting it out for two playoff spots. (Note, despite any worries in Boston, I just don't see the Red Sox losing seven more games than the Yankees over the final 48. Not to say it can't happen, but I wouldn't put any money on it)

If you want to handicap the race, I think you have to give a slight edge to Detroit. Of the three squads, they have the most home games, (28 out of 49) and play the easiest schedule (opponenets have a .503 winning percentage). The Indians will be on the road a lot (27 of their remaining 48 games) and also have opponents with a .503 winning percentage. As for the Yankees, they have 25 of their last 48 on the road and face a .511 winning percentage. The big thing in the Yankees' favor is that Detroit and Cleveland faceoff eight more times. Ideally, you want one of the teams to take six of those eight.

But, as Tim pointed out in the comments section, this is the key stretch for New York. From now until the end of August the Yankees play @Cleveland three times, Baltimore three, Detroit four, @Anaheim three, @Detroit four and then host Boston for three. 20 games over 21 days that will most likely determine the fate of the season. If the Yankees can get through this stretch at .500 or above, they should be in great position to feast on a September schedule that is much easier.

Phil Hughes starts it off tomorrow night in Cleveland.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 11:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

After losing the first two in Anaheim, the Red Sox bounced back thanks to a solid offense and a bullpen that all but closed the door.  That's how it's supposed to work, right?  You trade for Eric Gagne and with the help of Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon, they keep Anaheim off the scoresheet for 3.1 innings (Mike Timlin was effective too making it 4.2 IP).

Boston has a much needed day off today, something that will help both players and fans alike as these 10pm starts are brutal.  They start a weekend series in Baltimore on Friday.

One major concern has been the performance of Jon Lester.  Lester has allowed 4, 4 and 5 earned runs in his last 3 starts.  His ERA stands at 6.43 and his whip at 1.71.  Lester had a bad tendency last year to miss the strike zone thus raising his pitch count prematurely and leading to bad results.  He eventually picked himself up and figure things out.  After pitching a solid 2007 debut, Lester has gone back to his early 2006 struggles.  Boston has a tough call on this one as if Lester doesn't figure it out, who do they turn to?  Julian Tavarez?  David Pauley?  Clay Buchholz?

Lester probably deserves 2-3 more starts to figure things out.

Some notes on the farm:  Justin Masterson won AA player of the month in Portland.  In 6 starts for Portland he has gone 4-0 with 45 K's in 39 IP yielding a 1.38 ERA and a 0.72 whip.  Not bad.  Masterson struggled at High-A ball in Lancaster CA, but from what I can tell, that league is a hitters haven and both offense and pitching stats can be deceiving.

Clay Buchholz has also performed nicely at AAA Pawtucket.  39 K's in 25.1 IP with a 3.20 ERA.  He is 0-1 in 5 starts.  His 5 IP per game are the reason he is not getting decisions.  He is probably being held to 5 per start so they can save him for use later in the year (perhaps in Boston) what with the Red Sox holding all of their pitchers to strict innings pitched limits.

As for the prospects of any power at AAA, don't hold your breath.  There seems to be a shortage of offensive help at Pawtucket.  With their season 80%, the leading home run hitter at Pawtucket is Jeff Bailey.  But he only has a .429 SLG%.  At AA Portland, things aren't any better, in fact they are worse.  At High-A Lancaster, there is plenty of power where 1b Aaron Bates has 24 HR's and OF Bubba Bell has 22 HRs, but most of that is probably a function of where they play.

A good indication that Lancaster (and not so much the California League) is a hitters haven, the Lancaster Jethawks, the Red Sox affiliate, have the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th best hitters in the league (measured by batting average).  Wow.  I don't think it is a good idea for Boston to send any pitchers of importance to Lancaster as it might permanently kill their confidence.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 09:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Tonight's lineup is as follows:

Cabrera CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Posada C
Matsui LF
Giambi DH
Cano 2B
Betemit 3B
Phillips 1B

Should be interesting to see the pitching duel between Wang and Halliday.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 05:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

While it has nothing to do with the Yankees or Red Sox, I would be remiss if I didn’t comment on Barry Bonds hitting his 756th home run.

It seems fitting that in a summer of scandal for sports that we are confronted with the notion of Barry Bonds as the greatest home run hitter in history. I doubt there are many fans who believe Bonds attained this record naturally, but if you are skeptical, just pick up “Game Of Shadows”. For those of you like me who believe he cheated, this has been a joyless spectacle.

756 was the most-hallowed number in sports and today it is nothing more than a sad reminder of a decade of cheating and scandal. We can take comfort in the knowledge that someday someone, maybe A-Rod, maybe not, will supplant Bonds.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Well, after saying I didn't get why the Red Sox considered Bobby Kielty an upgrade over Wily Mo Pena, Kielty was signed to a minor league deal and Wily Mo cleared waivers.  What does this mean?  It means Wily Mo can now be traded anytime this month as part of the waiver trade deadline.

I also heard, with nothing to back this up, that Kielty has a clause in his contract that he can become a free agent if the Red Sox don't call him up after 7 days in the minors.  That to me sums it up.  Pena is a goner and Kielty is going to be a Red Sox in about a week.

It would have been nice if the Red Sox could have given Wily Mo 500 plate appearances in any given year just to see what he could do.  I think where ever he goes, if he gets playing time, he will be a very production hitter (average obp, but high slugging).

Of course the official transaction hasn't taken place and if the Red Sox cannot find suitable return value for Pena, they might just hang on to him.  If they do move Pena, it will likely be for a player to be named later.  A waiver trade that does not included a major leaguer in return has to be for the infamous PTBNL because minor leaguers cannot clear waivers as a rule (I think The Javy Lopez for Adam Stern trade was like that last year).

Anyway, as I write this, the Red Sox are losing 4-7 in Anaheim while the Yankees have already won.  There was a bit of a dust-up in the Yankees/Toronto game that might just fuel the Yankees already burning fire too.  That makes it a 5.5 game lead...

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

WFAN is reporting the Yankees have brought Giambi back and activated Chamberlain for tonight's game. Miguel Cairo has been DFA and Bruney sent to Scranton.

It is encouraging to see Cairo sent away because as much as people loved him, he just wasn't good enough with the bat to stay on the roster. .252./.308/.318 is just not major-league level numbers. Yes, he could play defense and steal a base, but that was not enough to keep his job.

The thing that will be interesting to see is how Torre mixes in all his weapons now. Duncan has shown great power and should get shots when a lefty pitches. Betemit has looked good so far and can help some of the infielders get a day off now and then. The big problem will be the DH spot. Torre said yesterday that Cabrera is "our centerfielder" which means Damon and Giambi are going to share a position. Giambi got hurt playing first, so I don't see him in the field anytime soon and Damon hasn't been put back at first in a couple of months. Andy Phillips has been solid, but .291/.333./.396 isn't enough production at first, so trying Damon there again seems to make sense. (Then again, Damon's numbers this year are worse than Phillips')

Keeping Giambi and Damon happy is going to be a struggle, but it is a much better situation than the lack of a bench the Yankees had at the start of the year.

As for Bruney, the Yankees should see if Nardi Contreras can work some magic on him. Maybe he truly can't throw strikes consistently, but the Yankees have to do everything they can to help him. He certainly has the arm to be a big part of the bullpen.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 12:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

The Red Sox have been a just slightly above .500 team since June 1st.  To be specific, they played .679 ball through June 1st going 36-17.  From June 2nd to August 5th, they went  32-26, a .552 clip.  Basically they came out of the gate like gang busters but have coasted a bit since (with expressions like "clip," "gangbusters" and "out of the gate," I sound a bit like a "rube").

I did some digging, which I'm sure most of you have done too and here is why the Red Sox have fallen of a bit.  These are June and July splits (i.e. they include June 1st):

Youkilis: June - .264/.395/.368, July - .219/.348/.356

Varitek: June - .234/.322/.403, July - .294/.398/.368 (July yielded a good OBP, but little production).

Lugo: June - .089/.170./139, July - .313/.377/.448.  Lugo was good in July, but beyond horrendous in June.

Drew: June - .325/.404/.558, July - .213/.318/.307.

The Red Sox have had a few players that have not necessarily been awful in both June and July, but who have had one good and one bad month or vice versa.  As for the pitching:

Beckett: June - 4.46/1.30 (era/whip), July - 3.50/.1.11

Wakefield: June - 6.00/.1.47, July - 5.52/.1.42 (wow, those are bad vitals yet he went 7-4 in that time).

Tavarez: June - 3.30/.1.30, July - 6.75/.2.03 (very bad in July).

The good news is that while these individual performances have hurt the Red Sox somewhat, the Red Sox limited their poor production on an individual basis for the most part.  In fact, despite these individual weaknesses, the Red Sox actual Win/Loss % through August 5th is .613 (68-43).  Their expected (Pythagorean Winning Percentage - a Bill James creation) is .630 (70-41).  So they have basically produced a record consistent with their run production/prevention. but the success was overstated in April and May and understated in June and July.  It's funny how things even out.

In other news, Eric Hinske has taken a 3 day leave of absence to deal with family issues and Brandon Moss was called up to take his place.  Bobby Kielty is still an option for the bench but somehow he has 5 teams vying for his services.  You tell me, what's the appeal of Kielty?  He does fair well against lefties, but he has proven he is not an everyday player.  I just don't see him as an improvement over Wily Mo Pena lest we forget Wily Mo (or is it just Wily) hit 26 HR's for Cinci in 2004 (in only 336 at bats) and 19 HR in 2005 (in only 311 at bats).  Wily Mo has the slugging edge while Kielty has the OBP edge.  What do the Red Sox need more?  I say stick with Wily Mo...again.

Citgo Sign photo used with permission from Lumiere2005 via flickr.com.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 10:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Kudos to Joe Torre for going for it this afternoon with his bullpen. The last three innings were Vizcaino and Rivera, his two best relievers. The question is, what happens if the Yankees are in a close game tomorrow night? I can't see either Vizcaino or Rivera being used, so that leaves Farnsworth, Villone, Brower, Karstens and Bruney to pitch critical innings. Anyone else see a problem here?

Don't get me wrong, I am very glad they got the win today and I can't argue with how they did it, but this is where you need Scott Proctor. Since he is gone, the Yankees have just over 24 hours to find someone who Torre will trust in a similar role.

That will be next to impossible, but if they are truly going to remake the bullpen, now would be a good time to do it, They may need a different name for tomorrow and whether it is Ramirez or Chamberlain, the Yankees need to figure it out quickly, no one wants to see Kyle pitching with the game on the line and it would be best to just send him away soon.

The truly amazing thing is that the Yankees are now tied for the wild card. On July 1st they were 38-41 and 8 1/2 games back of Detroit. The Tigers have gone 14-16 since then while the Yankees have gone 24-9. Cleveland has also cratered at 13-17 since then. So, the two AL Central teams gave the Yankees the opportunity and the Yankees have made the most of it by feasting on weaker teams. Now the schedule gets much harder, but the playing field is level. 50 games to go and we have a horse race.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 04:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Can anyone tell me exactly who the Yankees are bringing up to the bullpen?  The Journal News has either Ramirez or Chamberlain, Newsday has Jim Brower, while the Post definitively states it's Joba time.

While the speculation is interesting, the important thing is that the Yankees have broken a pattern by designating Mike Myers for assignment.  Usually, they have coddled veterans and given them the benefit of the doubt at every turn.  And, since Myers has the lowest ERA on the staff (2.66) it stood to reason that he would be safe if the Yankees decided to make a change.  But, Myers was brought in with one job to do, get lefties out, and he isn't doing it.  

The Yankees may finally be willing to take some chances with younger players and while I still am uncertain about the Joba experiment, the overall trend is great.  We will see if they stick with this when Jason Giambi is activated Tuesday. (the easy move is to demote Duncan, the right one is to DFA Cairo.)

We will know the identity of the "mystery pitcher" by 1pm when the Yankees play the Blue Jays.   

UPDATE: Peter Abraham is reporting that it is Jim Brower. You can forget the stuff I wrote above about a new approach. Brower hasn't been good since 2004 and while he has been closing well at Scranton, it's hard to see how this will help.

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 07:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

First off, I realize taking a vacation only to miss the MLB non-waiver trade deadline is just a terrible thing.  Secondly, sticking you with Peter the Yankee fan is really akin to saying "I don't like you."  So, sorry for both.

But something nice sure did happen while I was away (btw, the place I go is literally like stepping back in time with only dial-up, limited cell coverage, no cable or satellite TV.  It's like being on an island...wait, I was on an island).  The Red Sox acquired Eric Gagne.  Gagne is not the pitcher he was from 2002-2004, but since coming back from major arm issues, he has put together a great 2007 thus far.  What makes Gagne different since coming back from injuries?  Namely his strikeout rate.  Gagne struck out 114 in 82.1 IP in 2002, 137 in 82.1 IP in 2003 and 114 in 82.1 IP in 2004 (yes, he pitched 82.1 IP 3 straight seasons).  Those K rates are off the charts good.  So far in 2007 he has struck out 31 in 34.1 IP.  Still good, but not nearly as impressive as before.  Having said all that, Gagne's addition is welcome and it is nice to see Boston making a major move prior to the deadline.

What the Red Sox didn't do was acquire offense.  So get used to the starting 9 and the bench as I don't think the free agent pool nor the waiver trade deadline will yield much help.  Jermaine Dye was one possible target (he has hit 2 HR's since the deadline), but apparently the White Sox didn't like what the Red Sox had to offer and are now trying to re-sign Dye to a long-term deal themselves.

So moving on, the Red Sox as they are currently constituted are likely to be the guys on the field come playoff time (let's make the playoffs first of course).  That's not such a bad thing.  With an 8.0 game lead, an added arm to the bullpen and the return of Curt Schilling to the rotation, the Red Sox have no excuses.

As for who the Red Sox gave up to get Gagne:  Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and and pre-pubescent Engel Beltre.  We know a fair amount about Gabbard and Murphy, but Beltre was a big question mark.  He is only 17 years old and was signed at 16 (is that legal?).  Per SoxProspects.com, Beltre is "Five-tool left-handed hitter with excellent power potential.  Strong arm and good range in centerfield.  Highly touted signing out of the Dominican Republic, signed for $575,000.  Hustles at every step . Very projectable as a power hitter once he grows into his body."

Others said he had potential to be a Ken Griffey type hitter.  A stretch to be sure, but he certainly was a decent prospect.  So give Boston credit, they took an end of the rotation starter, a roll/bench player and a 17 year old prospect and turned that into Gagne.  Sure, they also had to deal with $ issues like guaranteeing Gagne's incentives, but with 2 months left (1/3 of the season) it costs the Red Sox about about $4.6m total.  Not terrible.  I calculate that based on a $6m base salary and $3m in incentives that were guaranteed of which Texas paid $400k and the Red Sox $2.6m.

It is nice having Delcarmen, Gagne, Okajima and Papelbon in the pen right now.

Other news, Brendan Donnelly is going to have Tommy John Surgery.  Not sure if he figures into their plays in 2008 as it is not likely he'd be ready to pitch until mid-late 2008 if he is lucky.  Also, Curt Schilling is set to start Monday night in Anaheim.  Keep an eye on Bobby Kielty.  He was recently waived and can be had by the Red Sox.  Not sure if he is an upgrade to Wily Mo Pena though.  I say stick with Wily Mo.

Posted by Andy (Red Sox) at 07:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Sorry for the not updating the Betemit for Basak move, but another thing that I missed from Wednesday was this.  Just read the first paragraph.  We all know this is true and I am very glad the Yankees' front office has agreed. The question now is, how do they prevent it from happening again?  It seems unlikely that Torre is about to change after almost 30 years of managing, so how exactly are they going to get him to use and not overuse rookie pitchers?  Stay tuned....

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 09:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Posted by Peter (Yankees) at 06:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)