Red Sox Trade Needs
The Red Sox played well in the first 2 months of 2007, but have played .500 ball since June 1st or so. The reasons for their uninspired play are as follows:
- Julio Lugo
- Curt Schilling's injury
- Lack of production from Ortiz and Ramirez
- J.D. Drew not playing up to expectations
- No pop off the bench
I'm sure there are more reasons and the reasons I did list above aren't weighted equally, they are just pieces to the .500 play puzzle.
Theo Epstein must be hoping beyond hope that Lugo has finally figured things out. It certainly seems like he has and his confidence is on the upswing. If Lugo can just hit .270/.340/.400 the rest of the way, he suddenly is not a problem anymore.
To me, the biggest issue is the starting rotation with Curt Schilling not a part of it right now and Julian Tavarez not pitching particularly well (even though people constantly rave about him on the radio). Tavarez is a nice option, but he is easily figured out after one time through the order.
I titled this post "Trade Needs" but some of the trade deadline solutions might well be in Pawtucket. Jon Lester seems like a logical upgrade to Tavarez as this point. Of course there are probably many more things to consider when determining whether to promote Lester. If Lester is not an option, then perhaps a trade is in order. While there is Davern Hansack and David Pauley at AAA, I'm not sure turning to them is the right answer.
As for Ortiz and Ramirez, they have both shown life since the all-star break, but it is their combined lack of power that is most concerning. Ortiz apparently has some right knee issues, but Ramirez has just looked off all season. His timing is off and his stroke seems inconsistent. Let's hope the first half vacation is over for both.
Drew is a worry, but with both Drew and Lugo, you kind of had to expect a first year struggle. Boston does that to some players as does New York. The bright lights, big city atmosphere is generally a shock to new guys and it takes them a season to adapt. Let's hope that is true for these 2 otherwise that was about $100m poorly spent.
As for no pop off the bench, only teams with good records can complain about this. Building a starting 9 is hard enough, but to enjoy power off the bench is generally a luxury. Wily Mo Pena has proven that he has power, but he doesn't display it in spotty appearances. It would seem he is best suited as a starter. With Ramirez, Crisp/Ellsbury and Drew in the OF, he really won't see much time. It's too bad because I'd love to see him start 120+ games just to see if he is real or not. He did hit 28 HRs for Cinci one year, so the power is there.
So there you have it, I just uncovered all of the Red Sox problems. Checks payable to me can be sent easily and frequently thank you very much Red Sox management.
Also, as you can see, we are chipping away at rebuilding what was once a glorious website. Actually, you all remember our old front page, it kind of looked like we did it with crayons and finger paint. We hope the new format/style, etc will be much better, but since both Peter and I have other crap to contend with (drinking beer, naps, anger management classes...court ordered), it is a slow moving process. I hope you stick with us and continue to read.
Comments
looks great.
I like the Lester move, everything I have read is his head is where it needs to be and he is ready. Lets do it.
Schilling being gone is a good thing. I think it helps them prepare for next year when he will be gone for real. Move forward.
Manny and Papi, best or close to the best record in baseball with them being mediocre for them, all is well. Assume they have to have a lift at some point, even if they have an "off" year.
You didn't mention Crisp. He is my personal whipping boy this season. I know he has come somewhat alive lately but with Andrew Jones on the free agent market and the possibility of him hitting in Fenway, I think Crisp is a lame duck.
Posted by: blmeanie | July 14, 2007 07:08 PM |
blmeanie, I think Crisp has been fine. He did start off poorly, but with his defense and recent offense, .330/.362/.455 in June, I think he is the least of our worries.
Plus, Andruw Jones is not playing well right now in a contract year, .214/.317/.428 and he is going to be expenseive.
But the biggest reason is that Jacoby Ellsbury is probably the CF of the future and regardless of how well or poorly Crisp plays, he is probably going to get traded this off-season to make room for Ellsbury.
Posted by: Andy | July 15, 2007 08:30 AM |
One from the Peanut Gallery for us all. This would likely get me blown up on WEEI almost immediately, however here we go.
Manny Ramirez will not be on the Red Sox in 2008, and maybe not on August 1st (never heard this before have we?).
Here is the trade, or at least parts of it. Red Sox acquire Ken Griffey Jr. Junior, finally healthy (for now at least) has 86 games thus far in 2007. He is on pace to play the most games since originally signing with the Reds in 2000 (145). Junior is at .286/.393/.565. He is 37, and would seemingly be able to play LF in Fenway (if Manny can, why cant Junior?). Junior has found his power stroke again too, 24 HRs and 63 RBIs so far. He makes $12.5 million this year and in 2008, and there is a Club option for him in 2009 at $16.5 million ($4 million buyout). On top of this, $57.5 million of his original $116.5 million deal with the Reds is deferred through 2024 (at 4% interest, wow, Junior needs a financial advisor to make sure he doesn’t lend people money cheaper than the US Government can borrow it; I might know someone).
In contrast, our old friend Manny is .288/.383/.480 (well below his career averages), with 13 HRs and 53 RBIs so far this year. As Manny likes to say when he isn’t producing, “No Pop Man, no Pop.” Only thing is, this time it seems to be true. Manny makes $18 million in 2007, $20 million in 2008 and the Club has 2 option years at $20 million in 2009 and 2010.
Here is why Theo deals for Junior and sends Manny packing (to the Reds, or somewhere else): (1) Junior has more pop this year (we clearly need more of that), (2) he is $5.5 million cheaper in 2007 (annualized) and $3.5 million cheaper in 2008, and (3) has a shorter contract.
A secondary reason is Griffey gives you option value re: Ellsbury. If they get Junior, he performs and stays healthy (lots of ifs here, I know) you can keep him in LF in 2008 and trade Coco and make Jacoby the Pedroia experiment in 2008. Or, you could give Jacoby one more year in Pawtucket, and keep Junior in LF in 2008 and Coco in CF. Alternatively if Junior is a dud or gets hurt again, always a chance you see Coco in CF and Jacoby in LF in 2008 (Jacoby could probably run the ball to home from LF faster than Coco can throw it, and definitely faster than Damon did).
Now, and here is the punchline, because I’m not sure any of this makes sense without this piece, and as much as it pains me to even think it because I don’t like the guy, but….“Now batting for the Boston Red Sox, Number 13, Alex Rodriguez”. UGH!!!!! He drives me crazy because he is a Yankee (although he isn’t even truly a Yankee), and he sure seems like a dufus, however he is the best player in baseball. Think how many HRs he would hit playing 81 in Fenway!?!?!
If you think A-Rod is playing in the Fens next year, you have to lay off some salary. Swapping Manny for Junior does that, and shortens your big $ payments. A-Rod would easily replace Manny’s production (sorry Lowell, probably not coming back…), and you could possibly also have Griffey in LF next year as well. Think of this order next year:
Drew
Pedroia
Ortiz
A-Rod
Griffey (I know, if healthy, not a slam dunk)
Youk
Varitek
Lugo
Crisp
That would be a plus offensive line-up for the Sox vs. what we have today. Collectively Manny and Lowell make (I think) $27 million this year, and $29 million next year (assuming Lowell were to resign with the Sox for $9 million again next year—this may be a stretch given Lowell has been great so far this year). In any event, assume A-Rod gets $28 million/year (I know it sounds crazy, but he is getting $28 million/year 2008-10, so why would he opt out for less?), and Griffey gets $16.5 million, that’s $44.5 million or $15.5 million more than Manny/Lowell (assuming Lowell doesn’t get more than $9 million next year, which may be a bad assumption). That’s a lot more, however if Griffey is healthy, is it worth it? I don’t know, maybe.
Plus if you want to deal Griffey in the off-season, you could do either Coco/Jacoby in CF/LF or even some combination of Coco/Jacoby/Wily Mo in CF/LF next year. It won’t likely be the same offense as Griffey, but it will be a lot cheaper and maybe if Wily Mo gets the job in LF, he hits 28 HRs again batting every day.
The two pieces I haven’t covered here is (1) what do we have to give to get Griffey (probably some pitching prospect(s)) and (2) what do we get for Manny (assuming we don’t trade one for the other). If you don’t have to give your best pitching prospects (or more than 1 of the top prospects) to get Junior, and maybe you can get a good catching prospect, AND you think A-Rod is yours, I think Theo thinks about doing this……
Posted by: Matt | July 17, 2007 02:43 PM |
Matt, I need more detail from you. You are far too vague in your analysis...
Seriously, that is more work than most MLB GM's put in in a month. Get that resume sent off to some team owners.
After looking at this, I don't think I like the idea of Griffey here. He is too injury prone. Manny has had an off-year power wise, but he is 3-4 years younger and has a much better resume, especially lately and especially health-wise.
As for ARod, I really hope he is not on the radar for the Red Sox. If management thinks he will be well received in Boston, I think they are crazy. He will end up being a major distraction and will cost what, 2, 2.5 times what vladmir Guerrero is getting paid. Is he that much better?
Good ideas though, keep 'em coming.
Posted by: Andy | July 18, 2007 12:51 PM |
Why i think Manny won't be here in 2009. what do you guys think about johan santana in a redsox uniform? when manny's large contract is over after 2008. Johan is a free agent who has said he will not re-sign with minnesota.. after dropping the manny money we free up enough to get santana, and prevent the yankees from getting him.. because hunter will be in NY and after mourneau declined his option for next year he could possibly be in pinstripes too, unless the yanks go out this year and sign Dunn or texiera for 1st base..what about wily mo for matt morris?. adds another vetran arm to the rotation in case lester isn't ready, or effective. forget schilling. i like that hes not in there. he has been inconsistant and as far as i'm concerened he is off the team next year. trade him for a bag of warped baseballs to St. louis.. they would love to get him..
Posted by: Joe | July 23, 2007 09:52 AM |
Why i think Manny won't be here in 2009. what do you guys think about johan santana in a redsox uniform? when manny's large contract is over after 2008. Johan is a free agent who has said he will not re-sign with minnesota.. after dropping the manny money we free up enough to get santana, and prevent the yankees from getting him.. because hunter will be in NY and after mourneau declined his option for next year he could possibly be in pinstripes too, unless the yanks go out this year and sign Dunn or texiera for 1st base..what about wily mo for matt morris?. adds another vetran arm to the rotation in case lester isn't ready, or effective. forget schilling. i like that hes not in there. he has been inconsistant and as far as i'm concerened he is off the team next year. trade him for a bag of warped baseballs to St. louis.. they would love to get him..
Posted by: Joe | July 23, 2007 09:54 AM |