29 Jul 2016
I do not envy Brian Cashman this week. He made a great trade, but he needs to make more, and indications are that ownership isn’t on board with that.
I understand Hal’s reluctance. Since they bottomed out at 9-17, the Yankees have gone 43-32, that’s almost half a season of playing at a 92-win clip. The problem is that the record is a mirage. Look at their runs scored vs. runs allowed. Even while playing .573 baseball, they only scored 4 more runs than they allowed. This is not a team that can win 92 games. It is much more likely that this is a team that can win 82 games. And their playoff odds, currently 11.1%, reflect that. Brian has to somehow convince Hal that the season is lost and the best thing the Yankees can do is cash in on some of their current assets. Primarily, that means Beltran and Nova must go now. But, it also means they need to listen on everyone. You don’t trade Miller unless a team is offering more than you got from the Cubs for Chapman, but you listen to everything and see what can happen.
The problem is that second wild card is out there, not too far away, tempting Hal and Randy to chase it. If they ultimately determine the Yankees need to stay in the race, that will be a missed opportunity, but one definitely mitigated by the Chapman trade. What I hope for is a bad weekend of baseball leads the Yankees to realize the futility of chasing the title this year and puts them into full sell mode. Beltran and Nova get moved, but more than that, the Yankees really commit to tearing it down for now. Done correctly, they can be back and much, much better very soon. Right now I don’t think that is going to happen. I think it is far more likely that they simply don’t trade anyone. I hope I am wrong.