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Another Trade

The word is the Yankees have packaged David Phelps and Martin Prado to Florida in exchange for Nathan Eovaldi, Garett Jones, and prospect Domingo German. This trade has three big ramifications.

1- Eovaldi is now part of the rotation. I like that. While his strikeout numbers have been mediocre, he has one of the best fastballs in the game and has a FIP much better than his ERA. He is an upgrade over Phelps and he is not eligible for free agency until 2018  Add in German, the sixth-ranked prospect in the Marlins system also with a big fastball as well, and you have two more young, power arms in the system.

2- Second base now appears to be a competition between Refsnyder and Pirela. I like that too. I wanted a younger and more athletic team, and the Yankees are starting to create that. I also was a bit worried about Prado’s defense at second.

3- Jones gives the Yankees a legitimate backup first baseman for the first time in a while (thank you!) and a very nice lefty bat for the bench. He mauls righty pitching, and can also play right field- where he would  be a good platoon choice with Young.

And here’s a really interesting undercurrent of it all. Look at the bench for a minute. It’s full with Young, Jones, Ryan, and a backup catcher. This assumes Pirela or Refsnyder at second and A-Rod at DH. But the Yankees may have also made A-Rod even more of an afterthought. In his career, Jones has hit .267/.333/.479 vs. RHP. Young has hit .254/.357/.460 vs. LHP. Putting that platoon in right gives the Yankees a way to mitigate Beltran’s eroding defense. Putting Pirela on the bench gives you another Prado-type defender. Unless A-Rod hits, it is getting harder and harder to see where he can add value. Perhaps the Yankees have realized that $61-million is purely a sunk cost and forcing Alex onto a roster where he doesn’t fit is not going to help? There’s still plenty of time until the roster is finalized, but it will be very interesting to hear what Brian Cashman has to say about this trade when he holds his usual conference call.

Build A Lineup

Let’s say the Yankees are done for the offseason offensively and the lineup is going to be made up of the players on the team currently. How would you slot them 1-9 in a lineup? Here’s my take:

1- Gardner- LF

2- Headley- 3B

3- Ellsbury- CF

4- Beltran- RF

5- McCann- C

6- Teixeira- 1B

7- A-Rod- DH

8- Gregorious- SS

9- Prado- 2B

Thoughts:

This lineup provides a perfect balance of lefty-righty bats. It would go: L-S-L-S-L-S-R-L-R. Obviously, if Beltran and Prado hit like last year, you might actually swap them, but for now let’s rely on their career numbers and not their 2014’s. I like Headley in the #2 spot because he has been a good OBP guy in his career and he breaks up Gardner and Ellsbury. If Ellsbury is set on leading off, you could always swap him with Gardner. If A-Rod is finished, I would put Prado seven and play him in RF with Beltran shifting to DH on most days. Refsnyder or Pirela could then hit 9th

 

 

 

Chris Capuano

I speculated the other day that if the Yankees brought back Chase Headley they would shop in “the bargain bin of starting pitching”. So I am not surprised that the Yankees did that today, but I am surprised that the pitcher they chose to do it with was Chris Capuano.

Capuano wasn’t terrible in his 12 starts for the Yankees last year. And sadly, $5-million doesn’t get what it used to, but it seems a lot for a guy who made half that last year, and was released in July. He is also 36, so he is a strong candidate for regression. Furthermore, with the addition of Didi and the retention of Headley, the Yankees have a very good infield defensively. Wouldn’t it make sense to sign a ground ball pitcher to take advantage of that? (Capuano really isn’t one). Perhaps the Yankees are expecting Capuano to straighten out his lefty/righty splits from 2014, when he got creamed by lefties. This move certainly adds depth, but it doesn’t seem to be very good depth.

 

Headley Returns

The Yankees have signed Chase Headley for a deal reportedly worth 4/52. I was wrong on the length, but got the AAV right when I speculated about this last week. There are reasons to like this move and reasons not to like it.

Let’s start with the negatives first. Headley will never be the player he was in 2012. Accepting that is important, because expecting him to hit 30 homers next year is a bad bet. Furthermore, his signing means the Yankees may have blocked the opportunity to get younger at second with Refsnyder or Pirela. (more on that in a bit) His health has not been stellar. And I guess the money is a negative, but it also may just be the way the world works now.

Now for the good news. Headley is a plus defender at third. He is a switch-hitter with remarkably similar splits against LHP and RHP. He is still only 30. He makes the Yankees better.

Everyone will now expect the Yankees to trot out a defensive lineup (2-10) like this: McCann, Teixeira, Prado, Headley, Gregorious, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, A-Rod. I am not convinced of that. I am wondering if A-Rod is going to make this team. His only path to the lineup now is clearly as the DH. But will the Yankees really have a full-time DH? That depends on A-Rod’s production. The average DH hit .249/.322/.424 last year. In 2013, Alex hit .244/.348/.423. Is it reasonable to expect him to be better than that now at almost age 40 and after a year “off” from baseball? And what happens if Refsnyder and/or Pirela prove in camp that they belong? What happens if Beltran proves he shouldn’t play in the field anymore? Alex Rodriguez got squeezed out of a position today, but he could be squeezed further.

 

 

 

Follow The Payroll

Want a quick explanation for the Yankees lack of moves? Look at the payroll.

Over the past few years the Yankees have gone as high as $228-million in Opening Day payroll and as “low” as $197-million. They usually come in around $210-million. With the Andrew Miller signing, the Yankees are at $180-million. They are projected to pay about $9-milion more in arbitration, so let’s say they are at $190-million. But that also only counts 17 players. So let’s add 8 more players at 500k each and we are now at $194-million, which we will call $195 to account for rounding.

So if you go with the max Opening Day payroll, the Yankees have $33-million left to spend. If you go with the average, they have $15-million. And if you go with the lowest, we are down to $2-million. And it is worth noting, this situation doesn’t get better next year as every big contract is still on the books and guys continue to advance and enter  arbitration. 2017 is when the payroll is suddenly purged. Teixeira, Sabathia, Beltran, and Prado come off the payroll and reduce it by $74-milion. In 2018 A-Rod (finally) is gone. And remember, every dollar the Yankees spend over $189-million costs them a 50% penalty in terms of the luxury tax. So Brandon McCarthy’s four-year/$48-million deal would have cost them $16-million next year.

So I would suspect the Yankees to continue on the path they have since their splurge last offseason. Yes, they signed Miller, but he ended up costing less than Robertson and got them a draft pick. They might bring back Headley, but I doubt they go higher than 3/39 for him. They will probably shop in the bargain bin of starting pitchers and hope to catch some lightning in a bottle like they did with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia a few years ago.

It will make a part of the fan base very unhappy, but it is the right approach. If things come together, they can definitely contend for a playoff spot. If they don’t, they will be mediocre or worse. But I still think it is a better approach than trying to spend their way out of where they currently are.

 

 

LA Story

By the time I finish writing this, the Dodgers may have completed another trade. While the first half of the Winter Meetings was about where Jon Lester would end up, the second half have been about the Dodgers and their radical makeover. It seems like they have traded Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and others. They have added Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, and most important from a Yankee-standpoint, Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy came to agreement on a four-year/$48-million deal last night with the Dodgers.

I’m ok with that from the Yankees point of view. McCarthy was a revelation in pinstripes, but those 14 starts are not a reason to forget about financial sanity. The facts remain that until last year he had never thrown more than 170 innings, or made more than 25 starts in his career. He also never struck out guys at the rates he did last year. Hopefully, for McCarthy, 2014 is indicative of a better approach and a healthier career, but I would never have bet four years on that, or $48-million.

But the Yankees could have used someone like McCarthy for their 2015 rotation. For now they have too many questions with not enough answers. This will surely increase the Scherzer drum beats, but hopefully they are too smart for that. We shall see.

Night Two

Will tonight be the night that Jon Lester makes his decision? It is reportedly a two-team race between Boston and Chicago as Lester has informed the Giants he won’t be joining them. (Props to Lester for phoning them himself). Most of the free agent market is waiting for Lester, so it would be great if he would decide.

Let’s focus on a few other notes.

Interesting admission by Brian Cashman that the Yankees didn’t make an offer to David Robertson and had no intention of ever signing him and Miller, but pretended they might because they didn’t want to hurt his value because they liked him. I can’t imagine the other teams in the league are thrilled that the Yankees tried to help Robertson get a bigger contract.

You have to wonder if the Giants turn to Chase Headley now that they know they won’t be spending money on Lester.  I have to think that the reports that Headley had a four-year/$65-million offer were wrong. Why wouldn’t he have accepted that by now?

Once Lester signs, who is next? Francisco Liriano went back to Pittsburgh today for three-years/$39-million so he is out, but there are a ton of arms out there. I am surprised that James Shields seems to have escaped notice by most people.

A pet peeve of mine is how many baseball people don’t understand the point of Moneyball. It wasn’t that Oakland valued OBP above all else. It was that Oakland realized that OBP wasn’t being valued and therefore they could exploit it. Oakland’s whole mind set is to exploit the areas in baseball that are being undervalued while selling the areas they think are overvalued. That’s why they built a defensive juggernaut a few years back and why they traded a bunch of prospects this year.

Interesting situation building in Cincinnati. Apparently they want to contend in 2015, but they also feel the need to cut payroll. That’s a tough needle to thread.

Max Scherzer reportedly wants a deal bigger than $200-million. Good luck to him with that.

More tonight if news happens in the next hour or so.

Robertson Gone

David Robertson is taking his talents to the Southside of Chicago. He has reportedly agreed to a 4-year/$46-million deal to close for the White Sox. I say good for him, and good for the Yankees.

I really liked David Robertson. He is a great pitcher, and he seemed to be an all-around good guy. But, I don’t like closers or the idea of them. Too much is invested in three outs in the 9th. I much, much prefer a more flexible approach. Once the Yankees signed Andrew Miller, they didn’t need Robertson and they can now adopt that flexible approach. In 2014 Miller was abetter pitcher than Robertson. In 2015 he will cost less than Robertson and the Yankees will get a draft pick from the “swap”. The Yankees are better with Miller instead of Robertson, and Robertson is richer in Chicago. It’s a nice win-win for both.

Winter Meetings 2

Nothing major has happened so far, but it is worth remembering that it is three hours earlier in San Diego. They may be just getting warmed up.

Here are some story lines that caught my eye tonight.

1- The White Sox are apparently close to getting Jeff Samardzjia. I know an A’s fan and he recently asked me if I understood what the $%!! Billy Beane was doing. I don’t, but I think the guy has built enough of a track record to have the fans believe in him. That being said, Donaldson, Moss, Samardzjia…where does it end and what is the plan?

2- Jon Heyman has reported today that the Yankees are willing to go to four years on David Robertson and Chase Headley. I am not excited by that, but let’s see what happens.

3- Interesting that Ken Rosenthal blew up the Internet earlier with news that Lester was closing on the Cubs/Giants, but hasn’t addressed it since.

4- Jerry Crasnick is reporting that Scott Boras is seeking “multiple years and substantial dollars” for Kendrys Morales. I would think Morales would have learned something from last offseason, but we shall see.

Lester News-UPDATED 7:25PM

Ken Rosenthal just tweeted “Barring late change, Lester choosing between Cubs and SF Giants”

I think we all know that “late change” means more money from Boston. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE 4:55- As BL points out in the comments, Lester’s agent denies this report. Jon Heyman reports that Giants and Cubs are “favorites” but Red Sox have not been informed they are out. Buster Olney speculates that Lester’s agents like to present teams with a “take down price” and that Boston has been presented with that. Rosenthal hasn’t tweeted anything beyond his initial report.

The Giants part intrigues me as they obviously need a third baseman. They went to a $150-million payroll last season and they already have almost $130-million committed for 2015. Are they willing to go well above $150-million?

UPDATE 7:25- I was waiting for this- Jerry Crasnick tweeted “Don’t count out the Yankees with Jon Lester”

If the Yankees are going to sign a major free agent pitcher, and I hope they won’t, I hope it is Jon Lester. Is that a backhanded endorsement?