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Change Of Persepctive

A year or so ago everyone in Yankeeland was screaming about the trade of Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero. Pineda was headed for shoulder surgery and Montero was a big league catcher. Now Montero has been demoted to the minors while Pineda is apparently throwing 95-mph in extended spring training.

I said it before and I will say it again, you can’t judge this trade until years have gone by. I think the fairest thing to say about it is that Montero simply didn’t fit the 2012 or 2013 Yankees. Sure, his bat looked like a huge asset, but where was that bat going to play? You can read this post about Montero’s demotion, I think it makes it very clear that he is not a viable big league catcher. The Yankees obviously were never going to come right out and say that, but they did tip their hand back in September of 2011 when they had Austin Romine fly across the country at the last minute so they could avoid putting Montero behind the plate. So, I think the Yankees did a smart thing and cashed in on Montero when his value was at its peak. They got a very good pitcher, who got hurt, and a very good prospect, who also got hurt. Both are on the way back and we may yet see a day when people say the Yankees “won” this trade. One thing is for sure, if Montero had been in pinstripes the past 14 months and posted the same .252/.293/.377 line he has with Seattle, plenty of fans would have screamed about how overrated he was. GM’s really do have a thankless job.

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I think it was a very good sign that Curtis Granderson looked like Curtis Granderson again last night. There are too many nights when the Yankees simply have too many dead spots in the lineup. Ichiro has doing nothing. Gardner is about what we expected him to be (maybe a little low in the OBP category). Wells was amazing in April, but has cooled considerably in May. So has Travis Hafner. The Yankees need Granderson just like they need Teixeira. The subs did some amazing things over the first quarter of the season, but it is time for the stars to earn their paychecks.

Remember This One?

I may be dating myself, but the Yankees-Orioles brawl from 1998 is seared into my memory.

I was actually at Fenway that night with the guy from the other side of the blog. As my memory recalls it, the Red Sox got beat up early and we decided to avail ourselves of one of the finest bars in that area- Jillians. Jillians had the two things guaranteed to suck in a 20-something male- plentiful beer and a huge TV. As I remember it, the TV was actually 16 smaller TV’s that could enlarge a picture to a ridiculous level. (Remember HDTV wasn’t a thing back then.) Being a weeknight with the Red Sox game still ongoing, we had the run of the place and we shot some pool while I got the servers to put the Yankees game on the big TV. (This was quite an accomplishment in 1990′s Boston.)

Watching that video now brings that all back and so much more. Look at Jeter with hair! Look at Andy Pettitte looking like a teenager. How about Joe Girardi mixing it up? Then again, I look at a picture of myself from that same year and realize that time hasn’t been generous to any of us.

1998 was such a special year for Yankees’ fans, but that memory has never left me. Another one is much better though. Back at Fenway, September 9th, 1998, I sat with Andy and the Yankees clinched the AL East. I didn’t leave early that night, in fact I stood on my seat and cheered the greatest team I have ever seen in person.

Send Me Your Hitless, Your Gloveless, Your Rockies….

The Yankees like players who have been let go by Colorado. Remember who caught the last out in 1996? Why none other than Charlie Hayes (Rockie 1993 and 1994). Who came off the scrap heap to go 7-3 with a 2.85ERA in 2005? Shawn Chacon (Rockie 2001 to 2005) Why this season alone we have Jason Nix (Rockie 2008) and Chris Nelson (DFA’ed by the Rockies this year.) So the acquisition of Reid Brignac from Colorado shouldn’t be a surprise. Brignac was acquired for $75,000 and comes onto the roster in place of Alberto (I was never a Rockie) Gonzalez.

It’s not a bad move. Gonzalez was a fine fielder (and a decent mopup reliever) but he was a no-hitting shortstop. In his place comes Brignac, who can’t hit either, but can play anywhere on the infield besides first and even in the outfield in a pinch. So more positional flexibility for $75,000 is a trade you have to make.

The person who should worry in my mind is Eduardo Nunez. He hasn’t hit a lick this year and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Lyle Overbay has been a very nice pickup, but the Yankees can’t really carry him, Hafner and Teixeira on the same roster unless they have some other guys on the bench who can cover a lot of positions. In Nix and Brignac, you suddenly have that. So maybe Nunez gets sent back to Scranton when he is healthy enough to play with the mandate to show some offensive chops if he want back in the majors?

Then of course the Rockies might DFA another guy tomorrow, so we should probably just wait and see.

 

As The Roster Turns

The Yankees have made a flurry of transactions the last few days and its likely that they won’t stop anytime soon.

Vidal Nuno got sent down and Brett Marshall got called up. Nuno pitched five innings in the doubleheader Monday and they wanted a fresh arm in the bullpen. Plus, they don’t need Nuno to start right now so he is better off staying stretched out in the minors.

Nunez was put on the DL with Alberto Gonzalez, who they acquired from the Cubs two days earlier was recalled. In order to free roster space on the 40-man, Mark Teixeira was moved to the 60-day DL. Gonzalez probably has a future with the team until Youkilis or Nunez is ready to return. Then he will be dumped on the scrap heap.

Brennan Boesch got sent down to the minors and Curtis Granderson got activated from the DL. Unless someone gets hurt, Boesch’s future is in AAA.

David Adams was promoted to the majors and Chris Nelson got DFA’ed. Nelson had a 10-game career with the Yankees and didn’t do much. Adams is a homegrown prospect and will probably stick around until Youkilis is ready to return.

The Yankees sent Joba and Caesar Cabral on minor league rehab assignments which means they will need to be activated in the next 30 days. Joba is reportedly very close to being activated, so expect that move (probably Marshall) imminently. Cabral will have to be on the 25-man roster or returned to the Red Sox. If he pitches well in the minors, the Yankees will have to figure out a way to get him onto the 40-man roster and the 25-man.

But the real crunch is going to come as all of the players on the 60-day DL return from injury and the Yankees have to open spots on the 40-man for each of them. Right now the Yankees have 6 players on the 60-day and five of them are going to be activated when they are ready (Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, Cervelli and Pineda) Cabral is the last guy as noted above.

How will the Yankees manage it? Well, Ben Francisco is an easy cut, but he is the only one. As the roster is currently constructed, the Yankees don’t have a lot of good choices. When Teixeira returns the Yankees probably DFA a productive player in Lyle Overbay since its hard to see them carrying a backup first baseman and Travis Hafner. And it only gets harder from there.

Of course there can always be setbacks for injured players and new injuries for healthy players, but if not, things will get very interesting.

Betances to the Pen

Joel Sherman is reporting that the Yankees are moving Dellin Betances to the bullpen. As Sherman notes, the reason for this is that Betances doesn’t have an option next year and must make the big league roster or be exposed to waivers. Since he still can’t control his stuff as a starter (16BB’s in 24IP this year after 99 last year) the Yankees are going to see how his 95-mph pitching works in the bullpen. Maybe they get a reliever, but they wanted so much more.

It’s a good lesson about prospects and their value. You either have to use them or you can lose them in a blink of an eye. After 2011, I don’t think anyone in the Yankees’ organization would have traded either Betances or Banuelos, but not Betances is a reliever and Banuelos is hurt. Jesus Montero has a .609 OPS in Seattle after putting up a .685 one last year. The guy he was traded for is still trying to work his way back from injury. Yankees’ fans will never forget Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps, but today is another reminder of how rarely “Jay Buhners” work out.

Good Idea

The Yankees had Jason Nix working on playing first before the game today. That is an excellent idea.

Consider Lyle Overbay. On the surface, his numbers are pedestrian- .239/.280/.443. But then look at his splits. Versus RHP he has hit .306/.351/.581. Against lefties, he is 2-for-26 with no walks, one extra-base hit and six K’s.

Consider Nix. He has bad numbers overall- .239/.286/.296. But against LHP he has put up a line of .243/.316/.419 in his career.

Put them together and you have a decent platoon. And with Chris Nelson on board, the Yankees can afford to shift Nix over to first and at least see what happens. It’s not a conventional approach, but considering the situation they are in, its the best one they have.

Interesting Move

The Yankees just announced during the postgame show that they have acquired Chris Nelson from the Rockies for cash considerations or the infamous Player To Be Named Later. Nelson is a 27-year old, right-handed infielder who has played second, third and even a bit of short in the majors. In order to make room for him on the 40-man, they moved Cervelli to the 60-day DL, which means we won’t see him until the end of June at the earliest.

There is little downside to this move from a Yankees’ standpoint. Nelson was once considered the best prospects in baseball. In fact he was taken 9th overall in the 2004 draft. While he hasn’t panned out, he did hit .301/.352/.458 in 377 AB’s for Colorado last year. He also has similar OPS’s against LHP (.732) as against RHP (.740).

So how did the Yankees get him you ask? The answer is that there are two serious questions about his game. First, he is not a strong defender and that may be putting it too mildly. In just under 1,000 innings at third in the majors he has a .931 fielding percentage and 19 errors. Like advanced defensive metrics? Nelson had a -26.5 UZR/150 games last year. That’s 8 runs worse than the next to worst player at third. Secondly, his bat may very well only work in Coors Field. For his career he has put up an .824 OPS at Coors versus a .640 one on the road.

But again, what’s the downside?  Youkilis is on the shelf with a bad back. Jason Nix was hitting .219/..261/.266 coming into tonight’s game and simply can’t hit right-handed pitching. Nelson is young enough that he could surprise and the Yankees do have three games coming up in Colorado. If he works good for the Yankees. If not, Matt Adams can be added to the roster as of May 15th. Welcome another player from the scrap heap to the roster.

This Is Stupid-UPDATED

I don’t understand what the Yankees are doing with Kevin Youkilis. They rest him for six days, start him on Saturday and then when he misses Sunday’s game they finally send him for a MRI. Why didn’t he get a MRI earlier and why are the Yankees content to play with 24 players and no backup infielder?

Think about this, who is going to play the infield if one of the starters gets hurt during a game? The answer until Friday was probably Francisco Cervelli. The Yankees could move Bosch to first, but if they need someone to cover 2B, SS or 3B, things are going to get very interesting.

There is a quick and fairly painless solution to this. They could promote Corban Joseph. He is on the 40-man roster and he is hitting well in Scranton (.272/.344/.457) and has played at second, third and first in his minor league career. But he is a lefty hitter, something the Yankees don’t particularly need right now.

But that isn’t the only option. Realistically, the guy who is getting cut if the Yankees promote a hitter is Ben Francisco. He hasn’t hit (3-for-29) and he is truly the square peg in the round hole. Let me explain. Francisco is being asked to hit lefties, but he hasn’t done that well during his entire career. In over 1500 AB’s his numbers are .754OPS vs. RHP and .720OPS vs. LHP. So why keep him? Thomas Neal is hitting well in the minors and is a righty bat who could fill Francisco’s role after the Youkilis issue is resolved. David Adams plays third and has played second in the past. He could certainly help the team right now.

Obviously, the Yankees will make a move if Youkilis’ MRI leads to a DL move but they shouldn’t wait. They can’t afford to get caught short.

UPDATE 4/30@5:45PM- Well Youkilis is headed to the DL and Joseph has been recalled. I forgot that since David Adams was released for a few days in March before being signed back by the Yankees, they cannot promote him to the 25-man roster until May 15th. I suspect that and the fact that the Yankees already need to find roster spots for Jeter, A-Rod and Pineda when they come off the 60-day DL are the reason Joseph got the call. Francisco’s spot probably gets saved until Granderson comes back.

Really?

Add two more to the DL. Francisco Cervelli has a broken hand and is out at least six weeks. Ivan Nova left the game with elbow tightness and is on the way to a MRI. Hard to believe he will escape the DL based on that. I wondered in spring training if the Yankees had some sort of hex on them and I am really starting to believe it. (Sidebar- Cervelli was not set up properly for the foul tip that broke his hand. There were no runners on, why was his hand out in front of his knee instead of behind it? I’ve never noticed if Cervelli sets up like that normally or not, but I can’t believe someone on the Yankees wouldn’t have corrected that mistake if he did.)

So what happens now? I suspect we may see a flurry of moves from the Yankees. Obviously, Phelps joins the rotation and the Yankees promote someone from AAA (probably Eppley?) if Nova hits the DL. And Austin Romine was removed mid-inning from Scranton’s game, so he is obviously on the way to the Bronx. But that may not be it. Hard not to notice that Ben Francisco isn’t exactly working out and with Youkilis still hurting I could see the Yankees bringing David Adams up as well. The Yankees could also add someone not on the 40-man without dropping Francisco because Jeter can be moved to the 60-day DL.

Whatever happens, the Yankees should hold their breath, cross their fingers and maybe consider sacrificing a chicken before their next game.

Scrapping The Plan?

Yahoo is reporting that the Yankees are going to abandon their plan to be below a payroll of $189-million next year. The article explains that one of the main reasons for the change is the fact that revenue-sharing rebates are not expected to be as much as the Yankees projected. It also breaks down the savings the Yankees could accrue if they kept their payroll at certain levels.

I am sure that the revenue-sharing component has a lot to do with this idea. (I couldn’t think of a better word as I don’t think we can call it a decision yet. Plus, why would the Yankees let anyone know what they are really going to do as it only gives leverage to players looking for big contracts?) But I really think the impetus for this change is the damage it could be doing to ticket sales.

Yankee attendance is down. In 2012, they average 43,733 fans per game. This year they are averaging exactly 6,000 less per game. Now it is April, which is traditionally the hardest month to sell tickets, and we are only talking about 10 games, but I think there is more to it than seasonal factors. I have been a partial plan ticket holder for 10 seasons and this is the first season where I have been treated reasonably well by the Yankees. In past years I would never get a chance to upgrade my tickets. This year I had a 20-minute conversation with a ticket representative and got much better seats. The flip side to the improved service is that this year it has been a real struggle to find someone interested in buying tickets that I can’t use for the games. So I think the Yankees have an attendance problem.

Watching the games on TV certainly will lead you to agree to that conclusion. They don’t seem to pan around the stadium as much as they used to, but take a look when they do. They empty seats are not just inside “the moat” anymore. Big swathes of the upper deck are empty. Again its early and school isn’t out yet, but I suspect this won’t go away when July rolls around either because this is about price and product. Yankee tickets are expensive, $20 is the cheapest seat outside of the bleachers and once inside the park everything costs a lot of money. I think fans are willing to pay those prices when they think they are going to see a winner. But subtract a winning team from the formula and suddenly a $200 night at the ballpark doesn’t seem like a great investment.

The $189-million payroll goal was always a longshot because it appeared after the Yankees had made enormous commitments to A-Rod, Teixeira and Sabathia. The Yankees still might have been able to make it if they had developed enough quality minor leaguers to replace their aging core, but they didn’t.  Think about this. If Jeter exercises his option for 2014 (an almost certainty I would think now that he is out for 1/2 the year) the Yankees have spent just about half of that $189 million for 2014 on four players. Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Granderson, Cano, Logan, Youkilis, Hafner and Joba are all free agents. Gardner, Robertson, Nova, Pineda, Stewart, Cervelli, Bosch, Kelley and Nix are all arbitration eligible. Could the Yankees build a competitive team for 2014 under those conditions? I think that is the ultimate reason why the $189-million plan is probably out the window.